Storm Clouds Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 GFS has been tanking the NAO in that period. So I'd have to say that there are chances of stormy weather and that it may well be rather chilly. Haven't seen the EC that far out, I only see thru day 10 and thru then the EC is positive with the NAO (at least the 0Z was). But then again, I think the GFS is too thru day 10. So you are thinking stormy and cold based on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 GFS has been tanking the NAO in that period. So I'd have to say that there are chances of stormy weather and that it may well be rather chilly. Haven't seen the EC that far out, I only see thru day 10 and thru then the EC is positive with the NAO (at least the 0Z was). But then again, I think the GFS is too thru day 10. fwiw 12z euro, still has the pos nao like 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 DT Facebook *** ALERT *** POSSIBLE East coast storm for MARCH 15-16-17... 12z EURO - UKMET and CANADIAN show Coastal Low developing 3/15 with Large cold HIGH to the North over eastern Great Lakes / North New England ... SNOW into Shenandoah western MD WVA central and Northeast PA northwest NJ much of NY and New England???? Stong winds / heavy rains along eastern VA eastern MD DE s NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 fwiw the euro brings some snow into phl next tuesday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 fwiw the euro brings some snow into phl next tuesday timeframe. Not that I think this particular event will happen, but it's certainly not crazy to think that our area could get a snow event during the 2nd half of March or even early April. I'm not necessarily rooting for another snow event...just thinking there is a decent chance of it happening IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 19th storm still on the 18z GFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 19th storm still on the 18z GFS http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12240.gif yea, but its rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 fwiw the euro brings some snow into phl next tuesday timeframe. Less than an inch.. you're such a tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Less than an inch.. you're such a tease lol i didn't say it was a lot, i just said some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 yea, but its rain. Probably snow if that track were to be realized. 850s are like -7C with precip falling but for some reason the GFS shows warm surface temperatures. Doesn't make any sense but it would definitely be snow looking at the way the system develops. Euro also shows a cold pattern at Day 10 with a big block over Western Canada/AK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Probably snow if that track were to be realized. 850s are like -7C with precip falling but for some reason the GFS shows warm surface temperatures. Doesn't make any sense but it would definitely be snow looking at the way the system develops. Euro also shows a cold pattern at Day 10 with a big block over Western Canada/AK... The euro doesn't look like a cold pattern for here at all to me. pos epo, pos nao, neutral ao, neutral to pos pna... the cold shot in the east is on its way out being followed pacific air. In terms of the snow, im not optimistic on that timeframe, i think early next week has the better shot at some flakes. I think the reason why the gfs is so warm at the surface is because the big time southerly flow out ahead of that storm, just takes to long to pull down the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The euro doesn't look like a cold pattern for here at all to me. pos epo, pos nao, neutral ao, neutral to pos pna... the cold shot in the east is on its way out being followed pacific air. In terms of the snow, im not optimistic on that timeframe, i think early next week has the better shot at some flakes. I think the reason why the gfs is so warm at the surface is because the big time southerly flow out ahead of that storm, just takes to long to pull down the cold air. Yeah it's a much briefer cold shot on the 12z ECM than the 18z GFS because it doesn't show as much connection between the -EPO block and the +PNA. ECM looks to overwhelm the country with warm Pacific air, especially on the East Coast...18z GFS gets there too with 850s spiking over 10C in the longer range with the trough returning to the West and Northern Plains. The Canadian cold also looks to be weakening fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Probably snow if that track were to be realized. 850s are like -7C with precip falling but for some reason the GFS shows warm surface temperatures. Doesn't make any sense but it would definitely be snow looking at the way the system develops. Well, it is March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Less than an inch.. you're such a tease so whats your call for ttn next week 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Well, it is March + the clocks change sunday so a longer duration of heat from the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 + the clocks change sunday so a longer duration of heat from the sun Sadly I've actually gotten several of my classmates to believe that already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Euro wants 70's for st pattys day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Hey guys...long time no chat. Who else thinks a late season snowstorm is coming April 5-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Hey guys...long time no chat. Who else thinks a late season snowstorm is coming April 5-10? HM how are you? hope all is well....and you enjoyed another snowy winter in jersey.(thats if your still live here) So you think there might be a window in april? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 HM how are you? hope all is well....and you enjoyed another snowy winter in jersey.(thats if your still live here) So you think there might be a window in april? Things are fine, I'd say. I missed out on a lot of the mega bands this year but still enjoyed another snowy winter. I think I am on the -EPO/NAO bandwagon late March into early April. I will enjoy the surge of warmth for St. Patrick's Day! Probably this entire period is at risk, but man there is something about that April window! Also, this coastal next week may not be so lame as the models may have you believe. This still seems like a possible candidate for something before we get a warm shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Things are fine, I'd say. I missed out on a lot of the mega bands this year but still enjoyed another snowy winter. I think I am on the -EPO/NAO bandwagon late March into early April. I will enjoy the surge of warmth for St. Patrick's Day! Probably this entire period is at risk, but man there is something about that April window! Also, this coastal next week may not be so lame as the models may have you believe. This still seems like a possible candidate for something before we get a warm shot. when you speak, i listen lol..You made some great calls this year (dec 26, jan 11th, jan 26th)...i dont know how you do it but congrats..Early April ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 when you speak, i listen lol..You made some great calls this year (dec 26, jan 11th, jan 26th)...i dont know how you do it but congrats..Early April ftw? Yeah right.......i think he has a crystal ball.....did it back in 05 also......febuary storms and early march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Things are fine, I'd say. I missed out on a lot of the mega bands this year but still enjoyed another snowy winter. I think I am on the -EPO/NAO bandwagon late March into early April. I will enjoy the surge of warmth for St. Patrick's Day! Probably this entire period is at risk, but man there is something about that April window! Also, this coastal next week may not be so lame as the models may have you believe. This still seems like a possible candidate for something before we get a warm shot. I definitely think the models might be suppressing the coastal a bit, but doesn't that lack of amplification sort of make sense given the +NAO tendency with the vortex centered near Baffin Island? Do you think the vort can dig enough to give us a storm? I was thinking that March 15th or might be our last window for a storm, but you see something popping up later than that? I wonder if it has anything to do with the weird ENSO pattern now with the warmth in the subsurface yet very cold SSTs/strong trades...changes coming in the Pacific, HM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Things are fine, I'd say. I missed out on a lot of the mega bands this year but still enjoyed another snowy winter. I think I am on the -EPO/NAO bandwagon late March into early April. I will enjoy the surge of warmth for St. Patrick's Day! Probably this entire period is at risk, but man there is something about that April window! Also, this coastal next week may not be so lame as the models may have you believe. This still seems like a possible candidate for something before we get a warm shot. Canada should have a lot of cold in the 2nd half of the month still...but we'll certainly be at the mercy of the wavelengths in late Mar or early Apr unless a block gets large enough or close enough to give us wiggle room. That happened in Apr 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Hey guys...long time no chat. Who else thinks a late season snowstorm is coming April 5-10? In Hazleton I'll be keeping an eye out for snow until the end of the semester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 when you speak, i listen lol..You made some great calls this year (dec 26, jan 11th, jan 26th)...i dont know how you do it but congrats..Early April ftw? Thanks a lot for the kind words. Don't forget about next week. The pattern is actually more favorable than first glace would indicate. Yeah right.......i think he has a crystal ball.....did it back in 05 also......febuary storms and early march. LOL that damn crystal ball is starting to get old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Things are fine, I'd say. I missed out on a lot of the mega bands this year but still enjoyed another snowy winter. I think I am on the -EPO/NAO bandwagon late March into early April. I will enjoy the surge of warmth for St. Patrick's Day! Probably this entire period is at risk, but man there is something about that April window! Also, this coastal next week may not be so lame as the models may have you believe. This still seems like a possible candidate for something before we get a warm shot. I agree, and we've been talking about how the last couple of decades snowfall in the first ten days of April has been more common than the last ten days of March. April 5-10 is usually the last window for big snows around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I definitely think the models might be suppressing the coastal a bit, but doesn't that lack of amplification sort of make sense given the +NAO tendency with the vortex centered near Baffin Island? Do you think the vort can dig enough to give us a storm? I was thinking that March 15th or might be our last window for a storm, but you see something popping up later than that? I wonder if it has anything to do with the weird ENSO pattern now with the warmth in the subsurface yet very cold SSTs/strong trades...changes coming in the Pacific, HM? Yes I think this setup isn't the best. It all relies on the delicate balance of the timing of the western trough and the s/w phasing across the East. The models are likely to continue to change frequently with such a scenario ... unlike that of our normal -NAO induced storms which are forced to happen. But I agree that this isn't some harmless open wave that hardly makes a dent on the surface chart. It's going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Well, it is March March 1990-- mid to upper 80s..... April 1990-- around an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 BTW there seems to be a connection between very late season snowstorms and a building strong el nino-- this happened in April 1982 as well as April 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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