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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 8


Hoosier

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If you live by the models, you die by them. This type of practice is rapidly becoming meteorological cancer. Remember several days ago when the Euro lost the storm for one run and a bunch of people got bent out of shape? There's always a reason a model changes its solution, and the way to find out if it is worth considering is figuring out why that change occurred. If this happens to be model initialization or feedback errors, then those errors propagate and increase in size through the entire run. If this shift is a result of a solid meteorological reason, then it's worth paying attention to. The important thing to note is that we're still dealing with a sensitive process of non-linear cyclogenesis. Frankly, I'm not going to get in a tizzy over these two alone.

Now, if we determine a good reason, and more of the guidance (especially say... the 03Z SREF) comes in line with it, then changes may be warranted.

Perfectly said. Can not ignore the blossoming precip shield and obs as low as 1001.5 hpa when NCEP models have 1004+ in a positive feedback scenario. RGEM is the only 0Z run realistic IMO.

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Looks like LAF should still score well.. :snowman:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

1020 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>038-011100-

CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-

BOONE-TIPTON-

1020 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SNOW OR SLEET WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF

OVERNIGHT WITH WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TOWARD

MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINTER

PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN LATTER FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT

IMPACTS ON AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON

TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT

SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LAFAYETTE

AND KOKOMO AREAS.

FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN BLOWING AND

DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.

VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO.

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Looks like LAF should still score well.. :snowman:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

1020 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>038-011100-

CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-

BOONE-TIPTON-

1020 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SNOW OR SLEET WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF

OVERNIGHT WITH WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TOWARD

MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINTER

PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN LATTER FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT

IMPACTS ON AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON

TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT

SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LAFAYETTE

AND KOKOMO AREAS.

FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN BLOWING AND

DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.

VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO.

You should've bolded the paragraph above that. ;)

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Think it will stay SE of us....will match your DTW call with 12-16.

Lot of talk about the more wrapped up solutions being more accurate. RGEM seems to be the exemplar of that group, and for a couple of runs it's been trying to get the mid level slot all the way to Port Huron. Don't think it'll go that far, but I'd be concerned in the four southern counties of SE MI. Might stay south but it's why I'm going conservative for Detroit.

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Given the trends, RUC, RGEM, UK, and mesoscale guidance--I have to believe HPC disco will mention some either initialization errors or convective feedback errors. GFS looks awful from 6-12 hours in the height field. Looks like strong feedback to the dynamic fields and slow development as a result.

GGEM @ 24 = 997 over or near Missouri bootheel.

12z run had a 996 in same vicinity.

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There's a surprise response from you.. ;)

Tomorrow should be quite an interesting day, tonight was a start I guess. Nice inch of sleet on top of some ice..

Touche. :lol: Regardless, the two models that bring any snow here have been throughly debunked. Plus WAA has been pretty effective with the frontrunner. I assume that continues with the main energy. Ping, ping, ping... :scooter:

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Touche. :lol: Regardless, the two models that bring any snow here have been throughly debunked. Plus WAA has been pretty effective with the frontrunner. I assume that continues with the main energy. Ping, ping, ping... :scooter:

Shhhhhhhhhhh...;)

I really think LAF has a 80% chance of getting 6"+ of something.

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Touche. :lol: Regardless, the two models that bring any snow here have been throughly debunked. Plus WAA has been pretty effective with the frontrunner. I assume that continues with the main energy. Ping, ping, ping... :scooter:

Well, I hope you get the snow.. Because if you don't then more than likely means I will get the boobie prize "rain that freezes on contact".

Temp up to 27 here now.

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