Hoosier Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I pledge to ban myself from starting any more winter storm threads (at least this year) should this turn into nothing, but I couldn't help but notice the relatively decent model agreement 1) on building a huge ridge near the west coast and 2) on a wave or series of waves ejecting eastward into the Plains starting about a week from now. Timing/intensity is anybody's guess and much can go wrong as far as bigger storm potential, but I think the door is open for something significant given the pattern being shown. Discuss, throw fruit, cream pies or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Glad you started it--I wimped out. cmichweather wimped out the most though since he wanted to start it as early as yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We going to use this a double storm thread both the clipper and then the thing after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Glad you started it--I wimped out. cmichweather wimped out the most though since he wanted to start it as early as yesterday. Don't worry I'll be there in the morning ball-bat in hand for you and cmich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 We going to use this a double storm thread both the clipper and then the thing after? Be my guest. Less chance of failure that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't worry I'll be there in the morning ball-bat in hand for you and cmich Haha, I thought the bat was only for cmich's knees. I said in the other thread you and Hoosier likely would cancel your plane tickets, but I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Be my guest. Less chance of failure that way. That is cheating. Might as well start a month long storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Be my guest. Less chance of failure that way. of course its all in the location, I could see storm one whiffing to my North while storm 2 whiffing to the South, which at that point I'll be beating the spring/severe season drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 from LC WEATHERAmerica newsletter I suppose the key component in the temperature outlookwill be the southern branch, which the various models have been hinting will reactivate. The scenario I am toying with now is cyclogenesis of the "Galveston Bay Spin-Up" type, triggered by a subtropical jet stream impulse approaching from northern Mexico. These disturbances often ride up the west side of the Appalachian Mountains; tracks through the Piedmont into the Adirondacks are also a possibility. Snow and ice may fall in great quantity over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley, while heavy rainfall would target the major cities of the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard. Most of Canada, the Mississippi Valley and the West will likely face routinely cold weather for the first week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It is nice to see that there is at least some hope for something perhaps a littler more organized for the OV. At least total snowfall so far has not been too hateful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You know the funny thing, when I saw the 06z GFS the first thing that went through my mind with respect to the clipper was, 'I wish it was spring time'. That vort in that location would have the potential to yield some pretty good severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, I looked, and all I am going to say is there is potential for something. Looks like, at this range, the GL warms up for a day or two (28th and into the 29th) b as a strong low looks to progress W to E across Canada,(more or less) and that pulls the "freeze line" all the way up to C WI and N MI. (strangely, this run shows a lack of precip for S WI, C and S MN and N IL., I would figure a warm up would accompanied by something) After the low passes to the east, arctic air appears to make a return, dropping temps all the way down to the GOM. After that about the 2nd or 3rd, another low comes down from Canada, and moves across S WI and N IL with about .25 qpf. Obviously at this range, nothing is set in stone, I was only looking at the 850 maps so that only tells part of the story. Given the atmospheric set up as told in the first post, is it possible for a low to move W to E like that? It looked a little strange, but then, that's just me. The second low seems to follow the ridge, coming down from Canada into the Dakotas, crossing the GL, and then seems to head NE after that, then weakening and crossing into northern New England. So, for what it's worth, that's my quick and dirty analysis, based on looking at surface and 850 temp maps and the 850 maps. I didn't look at the upper air dynamics, so I am missing some details, I am sure... but right now, that's the way it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You know the funny thing, when I saw the 06z GFS the first thing that went through my mind with respect to the clipper was, 'I wish it was spring time'. That vort in that location would have the potential to yield some pretty good severe weather. Yep. I would love it if that was our dominant storm track for the summer. Please spare me from all the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yep. I would love it if that was our dominant storm track for the summer. Please spare me from all the MCS. Eh I love me some MCS. I say bring on May of 2004 again, nothing tops 8.41" of rain and a month absolutely loaded with severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Eh I love me some MCS. I say bring on May of 2004 again, nothing tops 8.41" of rain and a month absolutely loaded with severe weather. I have a love/hate relationship with them. See last year as a reason for why I hate them. We had so much convective debris from them yet I don't think we we're hit directly by any of them (except one with a MCV towards the end of summer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Eh I love me some MCS. I say bring on May of 2004 again, nothing tops 8.41" of rain and a month absolutely loaded with severe weather. +1 to MCS activity. Nocturnal MCS to boot. And good luck to Hoosier on starting this thread...you're going to need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Eh I love me some MCS. I say bring on May of 2004 again, nothing tops 8.41" of rain and a month absolutely loaded with severe weather. Had that this past June and July. Really cant complain about this out this way other then a lack of decent hailers. Hopefully you guys out that way ( north of i94 ) can get in on it this year as well. Now hopefully we can get back some of that Hoosier luck we use to have before the big fail with the infamous Hoosier storm bust a couple of winters back. The euro potential looks great with this. Ridge is backed further and IN the Pacific and the wave train flowing down the westcoast/sw and Texas. And hints of some se ridging too. Have not looked at the other models yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I have a love/hate relationship with them. See last year as a reason for why I hate them. We had so much convective debris from them yet I don't think we we're hit directly by any of them (except one with a MCV towards the end of summer). Last summer was kind of weird, normally we get a couple MCS during prime time to come through, even at that we were way above normal for tornadoes this past summer for MI. I'll stop right here though as I don't want to derail the thread anymore. I just hope that the clipper that comes through first will at least arrive with something preferably not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Eh I love me some MCS. I say bring on May of 2004 again, nothing tops 8.41" of rain and a month absolutely loaded with severe weather. That month was epic. July & August 2007 were pretty sweet too. Last June & July were great if you were south of the city, but not so great for the northern suburbs. Sorry for the OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That month was epic. July & August 2007 were pretty sweet too. Last June & July were great if you were south of the city, but not so great for the northern suburbs. Sorry for the OT. Just for some if only it was summer thoughts Please let this occur again in May Just remove the vort over the Gulf Coast states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Another "Octobomb"" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Another "Octobomb"" No definitely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If there's going to be a return to big time -AO/-NAO blocking, it isn't going to occur until mid February (Feb 8 or later) or so. So we still have a window of opportunity for a bigger storm to develop while the teleconnections remain favorable. That being said, without a more robust STJ getting involved, it's going to be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Another "Octobomb"" No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12Z GFS continues to be consistent with the arctic front towards the end of the week however the 12Z CMC/NOCRAPS changed tunes from their prior runs and delays or not as strong with it until later next weekend...0Z ukie was hinting at this, be interesting what the 12Z euro progs are on this. GFS/GGEM at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12Z GFS continues to be consistent with the arctic front towards the end of the week however the 12Z CMC/NOCRAPS changed tunes from their prior runs and delays or not as strong with it until later next weekend...0Z ukie was hinting at this, be interesting what the 12Z euro progs are on this. GFS/GGEM at 144 0z ECMWF was in better agreement with the GGEM FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is this the thread about the great mexican blizzard on the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is this the thread about the great texas/mexican blizzard on the 12z GFS? Fixed that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is this the thread about the great mexican blizzard on the 12z GFS? LOL i saw that, no this is for the storm along the arctic front next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the clipper looks to be dropping further south on the euro vs 00z lets keep that trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.