Using 00z NCEP (including 20 ensemble members), let's begin by defining the EOFs describing the greatest amount of variance in the ensemble forecasts: Alright what is this telling us? First of all, note the asymmetry in the mean/spread ... there is a maximum in the spread over E PA and NJ ... to the west-northwest of the mean low. EOF1 -- explains 46.6% of the variance -- describes the depth of the low for the cluster of solutions to the NW of the mean ... in general the average SLP across