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54F overnight low. Almost close to opening a window

ready for more wind

Almost 10 degrees warmer this morning, currently 46.5/41.8 at 8 am.

Stayed in the 70s through 3am, but have since dropped back into the 50s with gusty westerlies. Picked up 0.00" rain overnight.

Another beautiful spring morning followed by fropa and plummeting temps with a stiff NW wind by noon. Wish we could get more than a day or two of nice weather before the bottom falls out.

The SSTs along the West Coast were the warmest on record during the 2014-2015 +PDO event. Those raw indices values you posted were only a small piece of the total event. As those raw indices can often miss the totality of events. Like we often see between the 500mb versions of the teleconnections and the surface pressure versions. My analysis involves a bigger picture view rather than the more narrowly defined approach that you are taking.

1. Regarding the top bolded, there was a record strong El Niño ~2015 (per ONI) and a strong accompanying +PDO. However, the +PDO portion of the couplet wasn’t near a record: -2015 PDO: +0.9 This was similar to the strong El Niño/+PDO couplet of the late 1950s. But all of these years had a stronger +PDO: -1997 +1.3 -1993 +1.0 -1986 +1.0 -1987 +1.1 -1983 +1.2 -1941 +2.3 -1940 +1.8 -1936 +1.9 -1931 +1.0 -1926 +1.8 -1905 +1.4 -1904 +1.2 -1902 +1.2 2. Regarding the 2nd bolded section, that +PDO ended July of 2016. Then it went back and forth through June of 2017. So, I’m calling that 12 month period neutral. After that, I’m calling it overall modestly negative July of 2017 through 2019 before the strong -PDO took over. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

WWLT Min 38

link?

-I’m not concluding/predicting where the OHC will be come hurricane season. I’m just showing how it looks as of April 16th vs other years. -I’m showing the area east of the Caribbean because it was so incredibly warm last year and has cooled so much since then as JB has been emphasizing recently almost every day. -Indeed, the Caribbean and Gulf are also very important regarding OHC. They’ve also cooled though not as dramatically. The subtropics are also important though this section doesn’t have OHC for it as it is a tropical waters section. Cheers

You can see the difference between Hazleton and Allentown in my latest trucking video. As I mentioned in my Facebook post, the grass along I-81 was still mostly dormant, and the trees were bare at the well. Down in Allentown, most everything was green and blooming/leafing out.

53 at the house and 46 through the rurals. Beautiful days ahead.

Pretty good agreement across guidance on Saturday rain. After that solutions diverge.

Big Ambrose Jet day coming up. 80s west of the sea breeze to 50s along the South Shore. Then SSW gusts later over 30 mph again. So our strong winds pattern continues.

My point was about the duration of the PDO cycling. I have posted numerous papers further back on how the length of the phases was different during different climate epochs. The period around 2015 was one off the most extreme +PDO and super El Niño couplets that we have ever experienced. I posted papers on this further back on how there was a model used which forecasted this shift. But the amplitude of the shift in the model was much weaker than what verified. So the period from around 2015 to the late 2010s was indeed a +PDO phase. But we cycled back to more -PDO into the 2020s. There was more research that the ENSO cycle has become more extreme using corals going back hundreds of years as the climate has warmed. This has been confirmed by how extreme the swing was between the super El Niño and +PDO was in 2015 and the -PDO and multiyear La Niña -PDO in the early

ILN wants to talk about a blocking pattern developing this weekend into next week .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A robust short wave moving out of the Ozarks on Thursday will deamplify as it lifts up the Ohio Valley on Thursday night. At the surface, a warm front will lift across the region Wednesday night and there could be some showers and thunderstorms associated with that. Potential for showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector will increase with the combination of diurnal heating and the approach of upper support. Activity will wane somewhat as the short wave lifts away from the area later Thursday night. The short wave will take a surface low west and north of the region, but a trailing cold front will slide into the forecast area Thursday night. The front will not make it all of the way through the area until Friday and possibly Friday night when a stronger push comes from a northern stream trough digging into the region. Showers and some thunderstorms will continue until this trough passes east of the area. With the passage of this trough, the mid levels transition into a high amplitude, blocky pattern. A closed low will develop out of the base of the trough that moves through, but there is some potential that this low then retrogrades back into the region early next week. With quite a wide range of solutions on where a closed low will occur, have stayed pretty close to the NBM for now keeping the region dry. Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday and then drop below normal over the weekend. If the closed low stays east of the area, then temperatures will rebound early next week. 06z GFS: 00z Euro:

I had thought the PDO cycle was going to change this year, but that does not appear to be the case. I think we remain in a -PDO cycle for at least another year. That said, I don’t think it’s going to be severely negative like we’ve seen over the last 5 years. Also becoming more convinced by the day that we see a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña ENSO (based on subsurface, surface, -PMM, trade winds, SOI trends)

Haha great, still learning how to properly inhale but we’ll get there. In all seriousness, my wife did a great job putting together a cops and pops (lollipop) theme for the two of them. Some sort of deal where our little girl was the robber and stole all the lollipops and our son was the cop trying to catch her. You know, the kind of thing wives thrive at and love to do. She really hit it out of the park though by contacting the West Hempfield Police and getting them to stop by the party. As you can imagine, the kids loved it haha. They all got to sit in the car and flick the lights and hear the sirens and whatnot. It was a big hit. Got to hand it to my lady, she nailed it.

This would be a big surprise to most people. Point and clicks have dry beautiful weather through the weekend and into next week.

GWDLT 41F for my low. Could be a +40 day but I think it won’t get that warm.

Did you see the “new” circa 1990 map that James Neihaus made of Stowe?

0z euro suite continues that. Almost a drought buster next week. GGEM and GFS both show the blocky pattern producing some slow moving systems, but different than euro suite.

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites · rSodenpstomc1t4h05l8313mt94l9h17a41tc18103lmma842c503tafmfgm · Check out the remarkable green up over the last month!

My best wishes to the female fox who announced very loudly that she is in heat outside our window at 330am

Low of 54.. ahhhh