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Thankfully ... the models are bum pounding another Saturday just like everyone wants -

Be even nicer out when these temperatures become the dewpoints

I think the prefacing cycle with the term "multidecadal" clears up any confusion. I don't see any length of time specification here.... Dictionary Definitions from Oxford Languages · Learn more cy·cle /ˈsīkəl/ noun 1. a series of events that are regularly repeated in the same order.

The term "multidecadal cycle" is pretty common place in meteorolgical vernacular, but the term "secular" is not.

People are misusing the word cycle. It's meant to describe a short-term pattern. Like the 2014-16 +PDO period is a cycle. The word to describe a long term pattern is secular. Like the 1976-1998 +PDO pattern is a secular pattern. So, 2014-16 was a +PDO cycle in the secular -PDO pattern that started in 1998. Just like in the stock market, 2003-07 was a bull market cycle in the secular 2000s bear market. Or the 1987 stock market crash was a bear market cycle in the 1983-1999 secular bull market.

70/32 Nice day

Absolutely gorgeous out! 75,cool breeze and not a cloud in sight.

I'm worried about another wildefire near Napa.

Yes, this is what I was getting at when I said that there have aways been intracycle deviations from the longer term mean...that doesn't negate the longer term, multidecadal trend....it reverys back. You can see this in my annotation with the double maxima pattern in each decadal cycle. There is also a colder intelrude (late 1980's) immersed within the last warm phase, which was also triggered by ENSO. Just to be clear...I am not denying or doubting CC...its very real. I just don't view this PDO cycling as a manifestation of it, nor do I feel that CC has impacted it....yet. I am, however, open to that conclusion if we do not see predominately +PDO during the 2030's, save for perhaps a La Nina induced stretch of -PDO interspered. I do feel that CC is impacting the phases themselves in terms of the associated SST patterns, but that is a different discussion.

Chris, I see what you’re saying regarding the rapid changes but: 1) Why are you calling it a record +PDO in 2015? It was solidly positive and much higher than surrounding years, but it was nowhere near a record: -2015 PDO: +0.9 But: -1997 +1.3 -1993 +1.0 -1986 +1.0 -1987 +1.1 -1983 +1.2 -1941 +2.3 -1940 +1.8 -1936 +1.9 -1931 +1.0 -1926 +1.8 -1905 +1.4 -1904 +1.2 -1902 +1.2 **Edit: almost all of these were during and/or immediately adjacent to El Niño 2) The period 3/2014-7/2016 was no doubt a solid +PDO period with it averaging +1.0 surrounded by solid negative years. However, that was during a predominant El Niño period including a record strong Nino. To me this looks similar to 6/1957-1/1959, which also averaged +1.0 PDO, was surrounded by solid negative years, and was during a predominant El Niño period. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat @40/70 Benchmark

Outside a few roughish days this month, there have been some absolute banner days this April. Today is no exception. It’s absolutely immaculate out. I woke up from night shift sleep to enjoy this. 72° in Edgewater

Epic weather warnings need to be posted. I'm in the middle of a parking lot experiencing extremely beautiful weather. The breeze is in the extreme beautiful range gusting to gorgeous level. The sky is severe clear blue. The temperature just hit the perfect threshold of 72 degrees. Warnings need to be posted so people can escape office buildings and get into parks. I'm safe from missing the perfect conditions here at Bacon Ridge.

Watch issued: SEL0 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Extreme Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a surface front will develop east/northeast through the afternoon. These storms will have the potential to produce large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Redwood Falls MN to 30 miles west of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman

Radar loop of the Nebraska supercells last night for anyone interested. One of the crazier velocity loops you’ll ever see. Wouldn’t be surprised if that tornado was on the ground for 2-3 hours. https://x.com/peterc428/status/1916728473755828285?s=42 .

Can't believe May 1 is Thursday Just two more full days to get through

https://phys.org/news/2025-04-summer-lapland-warmest-years.html

dang

Got down to 29.5 last night. Received 4.16" of rain for the month so far - things have begun to green up nicely even with the chilly temps.

Nebraska wedge was pretty insane from last night

I'm thinking back over the last decade or 2. And that was a rough 10 minute stretch in the second period for the special teams. But they did pull it out with a great 3rd period.

Looks like a livestormchasing.com dog walk stream sesh will be going down later

WOFS should be running this afternoon: looks like the first run will come out around 1700z: https://cbwofs.nssl.noaa.gov/Forecast?model=WOFSRun20250428-132559d1&rd=20250428&rt=202504281700&product=comp_dz__paintballs_thresh_40&sector=wofs

Already 66F off another frosty night of 30F. Easy 40F diurnal swing incoming.

i had not really slept in 3 months. I would fall asleep and wake back up. I never had a panic attack but i assume thats what it feels like. My heart would racing. The ER Dr said that could have been a missed sign, as i was in A-Fib. i have to assume that all checked out ok for you. The Doctors and nurses at PSU Hampden saved my life. They had no idea what was wrong and started treating me broadly while they honed on the problem. No dude was a Cath installed, but after they inserted that, they took 7.5 liters of liquid off me in 12 hours..Think about that That was the first night i fell asleep and slept all night. My daughter told me the next morning my brother told her after i fell asleep he's alright, he is finally sleeping(ICU allowed 2 people at a time) but they loved me and let everyone in, and i had no idea the room was filled. Hell didn't want me and heaven wasn't ready for me. and now everyday is a Holiday for me. Good luck my friend.