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I estimate I’ve gotten a 33.85” during the last 90 days! May 14-31: 6.7” June 6.85” July 8.25” Aug 1-11: 12.05”! Last year I got 13.3” Aug 1-11, but that included a 3 day total of 10.9” from Debby. I never thought I’d be this close to 8/1-11/24 without a TC! My normal for May 14-Aug 11 is ~19.25” meaning I’ve gotten ~175% of normal! My backyard is like a very wet sponge wherever there’s no standing water. The mosquitos have been in heaven.

=)

Never. ever.

Same run as New England from 38 to Donna in 60 I guess so why would it stop?

lmao I was not expecting the GFS to shift that far west in a single run. Glad to know it still has no idea what it's doing

I think I will end up under 0.2” on Thursday

The Atlantic ridging may actually be doable. Erin has been south of modeled so far and the trend toward a stronger ridge seems to have some legs (though the GFS was always underdoing it imo). The issue is later--that UL steering pattern over the EC in the long range is anything but a NE landfall look--as folks have said. If that massive trough in Canada can be blunted and the ridging in the Atlantic continues to look stronger...then maybe we're talking.

The trend today has been a further south track and that seems more plausible given the convective trend tonight with Erin but generally agree. Still a long way to go.

Just pointing out the potential. Atlantic Canada has been on an exceptional run of hits from recurving TCs. I'm not sure historic is the word, but it would be very hard to do given where we are now. Keep in mind that the general trend today has been a further south track in the short term, and we don't know what that means long term given the uncertainty on how amplified the Atlantic ridge is and the depth of whatever troughing comes out of the eastern US/Canada.

KAUG, lol

Remember that you need two huge changes to occur: 1) the Atlantic ridge is substantially stronger for longer to push Erin deeper into the SW Atlantic AND 2) A cutoff trough at the right time to pull it up the coast, which also requires that Canadian troughing showing up in the long range across guidance to essentially be replaced with a ridge or at least something that isn't screaming NW flow. Not impossible, but that is a very tall task. @CoastalWxwe go all winter and summer with ridges, SW flow, and trough de-amplification and as soon as there's a tropical system that all goes poof. San Diego

When even SLK at almost 1,700ft is hitting 90F… you know it’s hot.

Gorgeous night for a swim

First one is 12z Bozo

12z was wet too GFS is lol

Keeps going south and later recurve

More flatter

Ah the 18z Euro when all else fails. Good luck and I’ll sell

Some very impressive highs across the "Empire State" including 96 at Dansville, 95 at Massena, 95 at Ogdensburg, 94 at Fort Drum, 93 at Fulton and Syracuse. The Miramichi, NB reading was 37.6C BTW, or 99.68F (basically 100F if you use typical American temperature rounding)!

High of 93 here, same as yesterday. Very dry summer here, that July 31st event being the only exception.

The 18z GFS has a recurver off the coast next Friday, but with some high clouds and NE or easterly winds, it gets us to near 90 degrees? That's BS

The last time this feat was met was July 6-8, 2010!

He didn't look

Topped out at 95° at ORD and 94° at MDW on Saturday. On Sunday, MDW hit 92° (ORD 89°'d). ...2025 90°+ Day Tally... 26 - MDW 26 - PWK 25 - ORD 25 - DPA 23 - ARR 20 - RFD 20 - LOT 16 - UGN