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Another problem you have is that you are often critical of my work when I can tell for a fact that you don't read it. If you had read my publication from last season, which was predicated upon many of your points, then you would not be coming to that conclusion. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html Keep working at eliminating biases, which is mutually exclusive with being human (thanks for proving my point) because I have news for you...you haven't eliminated them yet. The rest of us mere mortals will focus on reducing our biaes.

gfs ruins May 4th-10th

You can get cold pools at 850 this time of year. Line up strong enough dynamics and you can cool the column down to 32. Obviously elevation helps and that seems to be the case with this storm. The tree damage must have been near complete in areas that had 30”+. Wet snow and broadleaf deciduous trees in full leaf really do not mix.

Something human I see about your posts is that they involve a large degree of projection. I can tell you are bothered about the lack of cold and snowy winters and it’s leading to you being very critical of anyone that is pointing out the obvious. Viewing scientific principles through political filter usually doesn’t lead to success. But sometimes people are willing to sacrifice forecast accuracy in service to holding onto outdated beliefs which provide emotional comfort. What you classify as superiority is actually maintaining focus on the big picture. I have worked very hard to eliminate biases over the years. It’s actually been easier to do with weather statistics and patterns which hold no emotion for me. Maybe this is what you are perceiving as superiority. I try not to get emotional about the weather and climate.

Gorgeous week ahead minus shoes showers and a few tstorms Tuesday evening.

They also know how to fail in big moments which is what Wednesday night is! End the series Wednesday night and get a few days or rest and healing!

Assuming we get nothing tomorrow night, May '24-April '25 is 92% of average. BN but not Stein-worthy.

64° already

Tomorrow looks like a more classic CEF maybe to BDL and then ENE to MHT-LWM day. For best warmth anyways. Might be just a bit too much SSW flow south of there to push bigger warmth. Sill warm regardless.

I absolutely have a bias towards cold and snow that I have been working to mitigate and the only way to begin successfully doing so is to own it. If your only agenda is truly to get the pattern correct, then I would suggest taking the self-preserving-blinders off and develop even a modicum of personal insight.

This year has really been marked by notable dry stretches

Is it me or is SPC just on it this year? The day 4-7 outlooks have been so spot on. Good luck to all chasing or those in the prime area. Stay safe!

The Euro updated seasonal forecast for the summer will be out on May 5th. It actually has been one of the better periods for seasonal forecast skill of summer temperatures and 500 mb patterns. My guess is that this dry pattern will generally continue into the summer as it has been very persistent especially in Eastern PA into NJ. The last time we had a dry pattern heading into the summer was 2022. This is when NJ reached 100° over 5 times but the areas further east had more onshore flow and less 100° heat than NJ. So our first hints on summer wind direction will probably come with the Euro update on May 5th.

And I chuckle when folks have yet to realize that CC has been as heavily politicized as any other topic. Again...I urge you to begin a poll in which folks can chime in anonymously regarding whether or not you follow the data, or engineer the data to follow your preconceived notion. If the majority doesn't believe that you have a bias, then I'll venmo you $300. You have this air of superiority as if you aren't prone to the same biases that we mere mortals are....I'm going to let you in on a little secret....come closer....(whispers) you're human, too. Thus its important to wait on these sweeping proclomations that dispell theories supported by at least several decades of data. Perhaps you are 100% correct on everything, I wouldn't necessarily doubt it, you seem bright; but we do not know that yet.

My only agenda has been getting the pattern correct. I have to chuckle when I see posts such as yours which often use the term agenda. Since agenda is generally a political term that has nothing to do with weather and climate forecasting.

65 as of 9:15 .. up from 41, but the 41 was captured at 3:30 or so after a couple hours of decoupling. Obs nearby FIT and locally suggests we coupled back up and temperatures began rising roughly around that time going forward. The rate of rise and the surrounding other observations et al suggest in total we'll be above 70 anyway. MET's been 77-ish along the BDL-FIT-ASH arc, which would put today in contention if not succeeding in the greatest diurnal range day of the year. I always like to track that admittedly tedious nerdiness

2.52 for my area

They are up 3-1 right now though?

Its much easier to perpetuate your theory when you keep adjusting concepts predicated on your theory BEFORE an adequate pool of data is in.

I was 36 this morning, but undergoing a rapid rise. Currently 60 now at 9am.

Much like I believe snowfall will incease again, I also am of the firm belief that the PDO will spend a great deal more time in the positive phase next decade....and if it doesn't, THEN and only then, is it time to consider a change like that. Not now-

That site loves to radiate.

That 1928 coastal must have been something. https://www.wtaj.com/weather/the-late-april-snowstorm-of-1928/

You keep passing off these sweeping judgements, such as the "the long 30 year cycles have become a thing of the past" as if they are fact...they aren't. Its your opnion. Then if an index doesn't fit your agenda, you dismiss it and insert some alternate index. It doesn't work that way....I may consider the ONI archaic, but I still factor it in. I just include other metrics to more accurately depict the intensity of modern ENSO events.

I mean in the cold multidecadal phase, not locked into the cold phase, per se. I figured that was tacit. The variation happens in every multidecadal phase....there is alway some oscillation within the larger multidecadal phase. Its never literally in one state for 30 years, however, one phase is perdominant dependent on the longer term, multidecadal trend.