All Activity

Sum sum summer time. Feels it even with modest dew points. Thankfully drying out by afternoon. Maybe some fires later?

May’s Forecast, DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.5 + 2.5 +2.5 +3.5 +1.3 +1.2 +1.0 +0.5 +0.3

God I hope not. Hate to have to throw all of that food away. Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

With today's storms, now at 6.13" for the month. Currently the 8th wettest April on record for DAY while the 7th wettest April for CVG with 7.29" with only one day left in the month.

Still in the COD

Can't get any worse, right?

Already ruining the chance of what would have been a dry weekend for a change this upcoming weekend. Haven't had a dry weekend since late February or a drier-than-normal month since January and might as well wait until at least sometime in the summer to see a dry weekend ever again, knowing how this Spring has been. Hell, I'm ready for 2025 to be over already. 00z Euro still locking in the Omega Block over the weekend, although the Omega Block gets replaced by a potential Rex Block later next week: 00z GFS: Latest Long Term update from ILN .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period, with some strong storms still possible. The more robust activity will diminish through the evening as upper support lifts northeast and instability decreases. However, some showers and thunderstorms may linger with a weakening surface boundary in the area. Northern stream short wave will dig southeast Friday into Friday night. This, along with diurnal heating, will be sufficient to bring an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms again during the day. This will continue into Friday night as weak low pressure and a cold front finally move through. At this point, guidance diverges as the flow transitions into a blocky pattern. The GFS and much of its ensemble system are quite progressive with the trough, not closing it off until reaching the Maritimes, allowing high pressure to build into the region and predominate. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and CMC along with many of their respective ensemble members close off a low near or west of the Appalachians which then meanders about the region through the rest of the period. Needless to say, these two scenarios would result in a substantial difference in sensible weather. The NBM and the lag built into that is still pretty optimistic. But with the trends seen in the ECE and GEPS, have begun to trend the forecast to more clouds and low PoP chances. IND office caving to the ILN about the blocking pattern .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Unsettled conditions continue with additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as we wrap up the work week with a cold front moving across the Thursday night followed by a trailing upper level low and associated surface trough on Friday. The warm front should be fully north of the forecast area by Thursday morning as low pressure lifts into north central Illinois. High pressure will build in for the weekend with an amplified and blocky upper level pattern developing across the country by early next week. There remains the possibility that the upper trough passing through the Ohio Valley during the first part of the weekend closes off into a low to our east into early next week. This would delay the arrival of ridging and warmer air by a few days and could cause a wet and unsettled pattern to linger but confidence is low in this solution coming to pass. The more consistent idea remains that ridging aloft and at the surface will become the dominant features across the region and bring a return to warm and dry weather by early next week. TWC/Wunderground is already hugging the Euro regarding this weekend into early next week. BAM bringing up the blocking pattern, as well https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1917255041062260887 Wonder how soon until JB starts bringing up next week's blocking pattern

Good. Good.

Rain...side note: of the globals GFS did the best job forecasting this line to make it east of the mountains.

Worst allergy season since 2021 for me. And I have to be outdoors for hours at a time every day for the rest of the week. This sucks.

Got up to 81F yesterday in my neighborhood. Highest so far this year. Definitely felt the sun strength on the walk today along with the warmer temperatures. Summer is around the corner and the sweat will be pouring off my forehead pretty regularly. Life in the Mid Atlantic!

Would be very welcomed in the Valley here if it could hold together... Terrible start to the growing season here yet again with rainfall.... Spectacular fall/autumn - good winter - horrible spring again so far.....

Latest HRRR initializes it well and does try to bring it into Montgomery/Loudoun before weakening. It actually shows lapse rates increasing a bit, generating some elevated CAPE, so perhaps it *could* hold together further east than initially thought.

sorry, this song is not the same for my generation. here is the original song which was a top ten song and was played on foldgers coffee commercials.

Nothing to rinse the pollen, it's time for the pollinator as in pollen everywhere

Looking like .50 to 1.00" of rain through Monday morning on the ensembles and the NBM. Trend is moving the heavier precip east at the moment. Saturday evening into Sunday seems to be the target this weekend.

Millersville got to 39F the other day so no more under 40 till fall call failed. .

Fernando? Oh shit, he died recently. Well maybe.. This has the makings if a historically bad team. Can't win without pitching, and there is literally no solution to that problem right now. And while that's the biggest problem, its not the only one. We got rookie mini camp, OTAs, veteran mini camp, then training camp. Preseason NFL football will be here before you know it.

OMG what a utter failure. Severe thunderstorm warning issued for Lehigh county-- all I got was a light shower of less than .05. Talk about a fast disintegrating squall line. As soon as it hit the Blue Mts, it was done for. Totally unbelievable. It just does NOT want to rain anything harder than a light shower right now. It was just enough to make the pollen stick like concrete on the cars. Car washes are going to love this tomorrow.

I remember the 1987 event. (if you can call it that) Tony, I was working at the Experiment Station in Griffin. (Agronomy Department) I have always held that moment in my memory of walking outside of the lab and seeing flurries and thinking, "Dang. April???"

Wonder if that mcs out in WV can hold itself together for us

Well, when you have a consistent pattern of many storms staying well north and west of the area, combined with high winds and low humidity, yes. And this will only get worse as we head further into spring or summer, unless we have a consistent pattern change or get lucky with a couple of super soaker events.

you actually liked this post...shocking lol

always use the models that show the least amount of qpf or highest temps

So is this the new norm for our area, having constant wildfire alerts daily??