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Dew points creeping up 64 F here.

Heaviest rain nearby into the Mid Atlantic. Euro has this area expanded north into the NJ/NYC area as well.

The 00z EPS and GEPs means agree with the principle aspects between 60 and 96 hours, but the GEFs ( and the operational GFS included) do not agree. The EPS/GEPs have more diving mechanics through 100 W in that range. The GEFs ( what's new) lean more progressive in just enough crucial amount that it bi-passes the diving/severing wave space. What's happening at hemispheric scales in the 60 to 120 hours is a coherent d(contraction) N of the entire circumpolar westerlies - A.K.A., the rising annular mode or a +d(Arctic Oscillation) That large scale behavior 'abandons' the ongoing wave transports at mid latitudes, and they end up cut off lows. if/when/whether one sets up between the TV and NE regions has a lot of wiggle room as far as where, and to what scale/degree of amplitude. One aspect about the GFS I've noticed is that it at times sags the mean polar jet latitude out of nowhere - wholesale. When it does, like the 06z version ... it's like it's stepping back 45 days of seasonal change. I think the rising annular mode is likely to occur, as it's own telecon is positive. And I've noted in the past the GFS does the over aggressive N stream. So I find the GFS solution suspect in this case... based on that known behavior, combined with the weight of the other ens means - which also have the rising annular mode. I figure for some form or another of cut-off is probable. But as is usually the case, this is where/when the models perform their worst, pinning down how much and where. Goes to figure ... they've been all over the place with this thing for the last 4 or 5 day's worth of model cycles. It could be a very weak system in the TV with a over arching warm ridge spilling 'over the top'.... ranging to a Del Marva gyre that pumps a seasonal corrective QPF load. Deterministically all this will be helped/depends on how the flow is handled between 60 and 96 hours as the models transport through ~ 100 W across the continent.

Records: Highs: EWR: 91 (1942) NYC: 91 (1942) LGA: 89 (1942) JFK: 81 (2007) Lows: EWR: 34 (1931) NYC: 32 (1874) LGA: 42 (20140 JFK: 40 (1975) Historical: 1852 - A tornado, following the same track as the famous "Tri-state Tornado" of 1925, struck the town of New Harmony IND. Just sixteen persons were killed by the twister, due to the sparse settlement. The "Tri-state Tornado" killed 695 persons. (David Ludlum) 1888: 246 people died in the world's deadliest hailstorm in India. Hailstones were reportedly the size of baseballs. 1600 domesticated animals at Moradabad perished. 1924: A significant tornado outbreak occurred from Alabama to Virginia on the 29 through the 30th. 26 tornadoes were of F2 intensity or greater. A total of 111 people were killed, and over 1,100 injured. An estimated F4 tornado tore through Steedman and Horrell Hill, SC. This tornado killed 55 people. 1953 - A tornado 300 yards in width leveled homes on the north side of Warner-Robins GA, and barracks on the south side of the Warner-Robins Air Force Base. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Montana. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 mph in Lincoln, Mineral and Sanders counties. Twenty-three cities in the central and southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Memphis TN was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 94 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A cold front produced high winds in the southwestern U.S. Winds gusting to 90 mph in southwestern Utah downed power lines, and damaged trees and outbuildings. The high winds also downed power lines in Nevada, completely knocking out power in the town of Henderson. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in central and eastern Texas. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Cool, and thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Hillsboro. For the first time of record Oklahoma City went through the entire month of April without a single thunderstorm. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel) 1990 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in southern Virginia and the Carolinas, with tennis ball size hail reported southeast of Chesnee SC. Thunderstorms moving over the Chesapeake Bay flooded U.S. Highway 50 on Kent Island MD with several inches of water resulting in a seventeen-mile long traffic jam. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

If Chris is correct, then we should start seeing more supplentary indexes coming out to bridge the gap between the past data and the more modern climate, like we have with respect to ENSO. Just to be clear, I am not necessairly saying that he is wrong...perhaps the warmer climate has rendered the PDO calculation is we knew to be obsolete, but all I am saying is that I need to see how the next 7-10 years turn out to be certain that is the case.

I used to be like that. You’ll come around.

Well, looks the same to me so far and I will treat it as such. You do you. I am totally open to being stuck in a longer term PDO state because we can't be sure of how CC is going to impact everything moving forward, and if that is the case, then I will interpret things differently. Yup. And both sides are going present the studies that support their own beliefs. I think the most objective position possible is to admit that we just don't know for certain and to maintain an open mind.

Great weather today. But summer is still my third favorite season.

73 / 60 pollen up to 6 inhes on cars. 48 hours of nice dry weather 70s today, near 70 Thursday. Friday looks to begin a stretch of clouds, showers and at times onshore much cooler weather. The caveat is where the cutoff we have been tracking sets up. Rainfall forecasts will vary but looking like 2 - 4 inches between 5/2 - 5/6. Beyond there still a tendency for torughing into the NE but near normal.

The GFS has really been struggling in recent months. So my guess is that it will eventually move toward the less progressive Euro and CMC. But not sure if it will actually be quite as wet as those 3-5” forecasts since models struggle with cutoff low locations. Will be important to watch since a wetter pattern heading into the summer could tamp down any 100° heat potential for NJ and push back against a 2022 repeat.

It is pretty easy to find studies that agree with you and ones the go against others ideas. Pick your poison kind of deal. You can go all in either way, but I feel like that clouds judgements as we have seen posted here and elsewhere.

Euro/CMC wet early next week with 3-5 inches of rain-GFS meanwhile is nothing like that with a progressive pattern

Had .21 rain last night.

I live at a low spot surrounded by hills so I typically don't see those strong winds. Last nights gust was 34 for me at the house. My son had a gust to 50 and he lives 3 miles as the crow flies from me. And he lives in the open on a hill.

The graph you posted doesn’t take into account the SST changes I mentioned in my earlier posts which affect the calculations. Plus the study I posted about the recent shift. Model forecasts show the duration of the PDO phases becoming more erratic as the climate continues to warm.

Wife and I are going (pending my health) to the Phillies - Diamondbacks game on Sunday. What looked like a stellar day is also going down the tube. Sigh.

That line was far, far more intense to the north of Harrisburg than down this way...I had .02" of rain and a top wind gust of 11 mph. (during the actual "storm")

It’ll probably rain , but any of the flooding stuff won’t happen into SNE. Maybe mid Atlantic

That G might pop into a O

there must be quite a bit of damage up in the mountain from the storm. I can smell it. I smelled it last night and this morning. The smell of fresh cut leaves. This smell smells exactly like that time back in the 90's when we had that hail storm. We had hail on the ground 2 hours after the storm. And I spent 3 days raking up leaves, in early June from that storm. and that tree snapping an the sound of trees hitting the ground last evening was scary.

No, it isn't a fact...I, along with everyone else in this thread, is denying it. The graph I posed clearly shows no discernible difference, and continues to have ENSO triggered deviations from the longer term, multidecadal tendency.

Or throwing themselves off Noah’s ark.

Eh....actually the "overdone" trend has been limted largely to winter over the course of the past several years...these blocking episodes have had no problem coming to frution and producing during the spring. Not even being sarcastic, either.

There is a good deal of wind damage to trees in my area from last nights storm.