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Chris, Nice maps. But these maps for 2015-6 also reflect on the globe being warmer in general vs 1997-8 and 1982-3. So, that alone favors for 2015-6 both a larger above normal area off the W coast and a smaller, less intense area of below normal further offshore.

I remember days like this living back in Long Beach. Would be hearing about 80s to the west. But wind gusts over 30 and blowing sand at the beach with 50s. I always had to hose down my bike after getting sandblasted riding the Long Beach board walk.

Upper 40s this morning. 63 now.

Yaakov, Fwiw, the data driven April 2025 Euro forecast for 2025 has just a near normal CONUS risk vs an enhanced risk in the April of 2024 forecast for 2024: This was April of 2024: look at all of that red concentrated along the US coasts/in Gulf: Here’s April of 2025: no red…just mainly near normal (yellow):

Nasty afternoon to be on the south shore.

Notice how wide the band of +PDO SST warming was from Mexico all the way to Alaska with the +PDO super El Niño event in 15-16. It far surpassed anything we have ever seen from a +PDO and El Niño combo before. The reason the raw index you posted was underdone was due to the much smaller cold pool to the west of the +PDO horseshoe. So the footprint of the historic +PDO was larger leading to the normally cold regions to the west being smaller. This why the SST charts below are a better indicator of the strength of the event. As the raw index was too narrowly defined to capture the sheer volume of historic SST warmth near the coast. So we need to update the way we calculate these indices in a rapidly warming world with more extreme marine heatwaves. We have seen this same process at work with the raw telconnections struggling to capture the totality of events which have more often been defined by the record 500mb heights.

80 degrees + days at EWR :4. With Today should get to 5.

Records: Highs: EWR: 91 (1974) NYC: 89 (1974) LGA: 88 (2017) JFk: 85 (2017) Lows: EWR: 35 (1947) NYC: 32 (1874) LGA: 39 (1977) JFK: 36 (1968) Historical: 1905 - The town of Taylor, in southeastern Texas, was deluged with 2.4 inches of rain in fifteen minutes. (The Weather Channel) 1910 - The temperature at Kansas City, MO, soared to 95 degrees to establish a record for the month of April. Four days earlier the afternoon high in Kansas City was 44 degrees, following a record cold morning low of 34 degrees. (The Weather Channel) (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) 1963 - A tornado, as much as 100 yards in width, touched down south of Shannon, MS. The tornado destroyed twenty-seven homes along its eighteen mile path, killing three persons. Asphalt was torn from Highway 45 and thrown hundreds of yards away. Little rain or snow accompanied the tornado, so it was visible for miles. (The Weather Channel) 1973 - The Mississippi River reached a crest of 43.4 feet, breaking the prevous record of 42 feet established in 1785. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm off the southeast coast of Massachusetts blanketed southern New England with heavy snow. Totals of three inches at Boston MA, 11 inches at Milton MA, and 17 inches at Worcester MA, were records for so late in the season. Princeton MA was buried under 25 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and high winds in central Texas. Baseball size hail was reported at Nixon, and wind gusts to 70 mph were reported at Cotulla. Heavy rain in Maine caused flooding along the Pemigewassett and Ammonoosuc Rivers. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Arkansas, Louisiana and eastern Texas, with more than 70 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Softball size hail was reported at Palestine TX. Hail as large as tennis balls caused ten million dollars damage around Pine Bluff AR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A storm system crossing northern New Mexico blanketed parts of the Rocky Mountain Region and the Northern High Plains with heavy snow, and produced blizzard conditions in central Montana. Much of southern Colorado was buried under one to three feet of snow. Pueblo tied an April record with 16.8 inches of snow in 24 hours. Strong canyon winds in New Mexico, enhanced by local showers, gusted to 65 mph at Albuquerque. Afternoon temperatures across the Great Plains Region ranged from the 20s in North Dakota to 107 degrees at Laredo TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Thanks for posting the S&P outlook, Barry. Very interesting! One of the few *data-driven* (not totally qualitative) landfall risk outlooks I have seen. Their maps seem to suggest higher than usual activity in the central Atlantic portion of the MDR (around 40-60W) and the Bahamas area (off FL coast) as well as the Caribbean and GOM.

58 / 42 and on the way to 80 / mid 80s in the warmer spots, perhaps some 87's. A bit cooler to the 70s on Wed then near 70 on Thu before the front approaches. Will it be cutoff city 5/2 -5/7 with clouds, onshore and unsettled or will the cutoff setup east or north of here. Either way that will be the focus of the period 5/2 - 5/6 which could also be near normal / drier. Next shot of rain between Fri - Sun 0.50 or more now forecast. Overall near normal as it stands now the first week of the month.

Quite the gradient this afternoon on the 3K NAM:

1. But the SSTs along the W coast are just a portion of the entire PDO calculation. Just looking at the W coast like you did seems more narrow to me. 2. The SSTs in 2014-5 being at the warmest on record (per what you said) aren’t surprising due to global warming. And again, the full PDO calculation also involves other areas.

54F overnight low. Almost close to opening a window

ready for more wind

Almost 10 degrees warmer this morning, currently 46.5/41.8 at 8 am.

Stayed in the 70s through 3am, but have since dropped back into the 50s with gusty westerlies. Picked up 0.00" rain overnight.

Another beautiful spring morning followed by fropa and plummeting temps with a stiff NW wind by noon. Wish we could get more than a day or two of nice weather before the bottom falls out.

The SSTs along the West Coast were the warmest on record during the 2014-2015 +PDO event. Those raw indices values you posted were only a small piece of the total event. As those raw indices can often miss the totality of events. Like we often see between the 500mb versions of the teleconnections and the surface pressure versions. My analysis involves a bigger picture view rather than the more narrowly defined approach that you are taking. Notice how much wider the band of record SST along the West Coast warmth was in the 15-16 event than 97-98 and 82-83.

1. Regarding the top bolded, there was a record strong El Niño ~2015 (per ONI) and a strong accompanying +PDO. However, the +PDO portion of the couplet wasn’t near a record: -2015 PDO: +0.9 This was similar to the strong El Niño/+PDO couplet of the late 1950s. But all of these years had a stronger +PDO: -1997 +1.3 -1993 +1.0 -1986 +1.0 -1987 +1.1 -1983 +1.2 -1941 +2.3 -1940 +1.8 -1936 +1.9 -1931 +1.0 -1926 +1.8 -1905 +1.4 -1904 +1.2 -1902 +1.2 2. Regarding the 2nd bolded section, that +PDO ended July of 2016. Then it went back and forth through June of 2017. So, I’m calling that 12 month period neutral. After that, I’m calling it overall modestly negative July of 2017 through 2019 before the strong -PDO took over. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

WWLT Min 38

link?

-I’m not concluding/predicting where the OHC will be come hurricane season. I’m just showing how it looks as of April 16th vs other years. -I’m showing the area east of the Caribbean because it was so incredibly warm last year and has cooled so much since then as JB has been emphasizing recently almost every day. -Indeed, the Caribbean and Gulf are also very important regarding OHC. They’ve also cooled though not as dramatically. The subtropics are also important though this section doesn’t have OHC for it as it is a tropical waters section. Cheers

You can see the difference between Hazleton and Allentown in my latest trucking video. As I mentioned in my Facebook post, the grass along I-81 was still mostly dormant, and the trees were bare at the well. Down in Allentown, most everything was green and blooming/leafing out.

53 at the house and 46 through the rurals. Beautiful days ahead.