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do you remember at Funky Murphy's, we were talking about the "deamplification" error of the models? How there seems to be an everyday requirement to anticipated whatever eye-candy there is in the extended, salt the sucker at least some amount. I suspect that is related to the models having to "speed up" the flow, moving all events from you know circa D12s to D8s ... to D4s and so on. Along the speeding up process, very subtle from 6 hourly intervals in the models, aggregates to some 20% ( for the sake of discussion) of mechanics organization lost to an exchange where the models have to take energy from the small scales, to then supply the large scale with the faster basal flow velocities. Sounds like human-based economics interestingly enough... haha

Canaan Valley dropped to 18.

BTW, @bluewaveperhaps sometimes my posts are more intense than intended as a result of the heavily sarcastic tone...believe me, I'm not angry and do value your contributions.

Great solar power production days yesterday and today . Making up for lost time early this month.

Believe me, everyone in the SNE forum can recall with vivid clarity your position with respect to the enhanced medium limiting storm potential. It hasn't slid under the radar, I can assure you.

Nice time lapse of T-Storms moving through NYC early Saturday evening. https://x.com/i/status/1916519549328896468

I implied that you no longer feel the traditional concept of the multidecadal PDO cycling is still valid....what did I misstate?? I replied that its soon to draw that conclusion, and posted a graph that reveals similar cycling in the past as evidence. I agree regarding the second bolded point, but I don't think thats because I am misunderstanding anything....its because thise mode of communication is very impersonal and it is in fact difficult to detect tonality. You are probably right that I wouldn't perceieve you as arrogant in that case.

You know ... not that my opinion needs to matter more than the next guy's. In striving to be 'reasonable', objectivity should be one's governing goal. If they are ... others will be more likely to consider ... etc... Aaaand then we let MAGA choose what's objective. LOL no Seriously, I maintain that CC is true. I also maintain that the science of CC et al is not entirely certain as to how it will manifest. I will say ... there is a growing compendium of published papers that describe changes in the global circulation; faster jets is one of them. I've posted links in American WX here and there, but no replies or forwarding conversation, lend much of any confidence that anyone would recall my having done so... heh. There's a lot of advancing mathematics that has demonstrated better predictive skill, but there's still quite obviously ( and I know you may not like this word but bear with the semantics ) "alarming" gaps. Case in point, 2023: not a single human being ( that I am aware...), nor any technology therefrom, predicted that en entire fucking planet ( a whole planet ) would up and raise a degree C, ocean to air, everywhere, simultaneously. It was strangeness at a tedious scale that I haven't heard anyone, not even the University apparatus, mention. There's plenty of, 'still a mystery as to how,' type studies, but none that I've seen the specifically addresses the question: why would the 40N and above spanning Atlantic Basin SSTs, rise at the same rate and amount as the Indian Ocean, while both rose at a similar amount and speed as the ENSO band ( 4, 3.4, 3, 1+2)... as did the south Pacific...? It's like some kind of conductor zapped the whole world. These fields, moving in unison, is the alarming aspect. And the atmosphere went right along with it... That occurrence proves that "the science of CC et al is not entirely certain as to how it will manifest" That uncertainty, moreover, allows for a larger envelope of plausible emergence yet to be presented given time. Last winter was - I think - an under-the-radar extraordinary event. It just didn't hurt anything. I've been alive for many decades now ...I've never seen 4" lousy inches of snow survive 3.5 months of time in any winter, including the big dawgs of lore. The persistent temperature suppression, albeit not extraordinarily cold, that went along with that ... is something I've never heard of. I suspect CC is always manifesting in these idiosyncratic ways that are too nuanced to most people's everyday, including the nerds, to really consider. We are an observation enslaved interpreter species of the universe and nature - we water cooler and shelve all speculation and predictions, until they are squeezing our balls.

Euro has sfc door potential too.

If you didn’t continually misstate my conclusions based on your incorrect perceptions of them, then we wouldn’t have to keep going back and forth and diverging from the main discussion. Maybe this format just is too incomplete to enable you to get the full gist or meaning of the ideas that I am trying to convey. We could probably come to a much better understanding if we ever had a meeting in public like at a conference if something. If you ever met me in person, then you would probably come away from the meeting with a completely different view as my in person persona can often be more stand up comedian like. As these forums can come off as overly dry. I get that you have a pretty good sense of humor and so do I. But it’s not always easy to convey that in these posts. These back and forth interactions I take in stride. Almost like when players are off the field the relationship is less intense what is seen on the field. But unfortunately, these forums miss the the off field antics.

I’m the map

2022 was bone dry especially in July/August. Got wet in September-kind of the opposite of last year where we dried out in the fall.

Nice out in the sun but chilly in the shade, especially with the breeze.

Low of 42. Did tons of mulching and other landscaping yesterday and let's just say my back is feeling it.

That may very well be true, and this is part of the reason why I think its important to wait until we get into the 2030s before assuming some of these larger scale changes. That is all I am saying....I not at all a CC denier, believe me. Very reasonable take, John.

more dry wind tomorrow

Yeah GFS has been quite consistent with that. I guess that period is either going to really suck or be quite warm given how close the warmth is.

Mmm... might help your case if you wrote a post that connects the dots with empirical data supporting this ( bold ). I mean, I lean in your favor on that in principle. Particularly the "...PDO phase have not been working out..." part. I would extend this to all quadrature, however. Ex, the ENSOs have increased intra-mode frequencies whence the larger hemispheric circulation construct types sort of strain correlation. Some times not appearing to really even be coupled. This is tendencies, mind you - we're not attempting to abase thermodynamic theory between ocean-air-land with this. This is conjecture based on observation. But, there's a way to disrupt correlations without challenging the school. I began commenting with Ray years ago that, in general, how field observation results have begun to shake confidence in using teleconnectors in on-going correlation -based corrections. Operational weather forecasting's been stressed. A personal speculation: during the recent decades, increasing basal flow velocities have been observed (empirically). This may be effecting patterns into changing faster. There's a gestation limitation in time where if the mass field modulation takes place too quickly ... this doesn't give events within it time enough to manifest; " exceeding the time-dependency on event specifics". Example... a crashing -NAO, doesn't last long enough for the sloped pattern through the lakes to manifest, because the L/W perturbs too quickly and the whole thing deconstructs itself. This may happen at all scales and dimensions. The PDO probably needs more time to be a huge driver; as a cumulative exertion, the momentum needs time to gather enough to correlate. But with the hurried transition rate and higher resonance, the system's moved on prior to seeing the better correlation. This is all very intuitive to me personally.. And these ideas do seem to 'fit' your conjecture. That said, ... unless we have data to support - which I don't personally have admittedly - this is just based on our existential impression of the world. It's anecdotal in a sense. It may be entirely right. It may be entirely wrong. Neither of those states is very typical though in speculative "art" in this shit. Somewhere in the middle is probably where the truth resides, but data tells us on which side of the 50/50 line.

Yeah that corridor should cook pretty well given the llvl airmass, lack of clouds, and strong mixing.

Another problem you have is that you are often critical of my work when I can tell for a fact that you don't read it. If you had read my publication from last season, which was predicated upon many of your points, then you would not be coming to that conclusion. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html Keep working at eliminating biases, which is mutually exclusive with being human (thanks for proving my point) because I have news for you...you haven't eliminated them yet. The rest of us mere mortals will focus on reducing our biaes. BTW, as a LICSW, I am well schooled in the defense mechanism of projection, which inherently entails an element of struggle for the "projector" to accept and become conscious of the unwanted thoughts and/or feelings that they are attempting to project....I just admitted I have a bias that I am working to mitigate.

gfs ruins May 4th-10th

You can get cold pools at 850 this time of year. Line up strong enough dynamics and you can cool the column down to 32. Obviously elevation helps and that seems to be the case with this storm. The tree damage must have been near complete in areas that had 30”+. Wet snow and broadleaf deciduous trees in full leaf really do not mix.

Something human I see about your posts is that they involve a large degree of projection. I can tell you are bothered about the lack of cold and snowy winters and it’s leading to you being very critical of anyone that is pointing out the obvious. Viewing scientific principles through political filter usually doesn’t lead to success. But sometimes people are willing to sacrifice forecast accuracy in service to holding onto outdated beliefs which provide emotional comfort. What you classify as superiority is actually maintaining focus on the big picture. I have worked very hard to eliminate biases over the years. It’s actually been easier to do with weather statistics and patterns which hold no emotion for me. Maybe this is what you are perceiving as superiority. I try not to get emotional about the weather and climate.

Gorgeous week ahead minus shoes showers and a few tstorms Tuesday evening.

They also know how to fail in big moments which is what Wednesday night is! End the series Wednesday night and get a few days or rest and healing!