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WB 6Z HRRR

0z ECM has a coating to an inch N&W of Philly Saturday morning. 1-2" Upper Bucks/Allentown

I had white rain for a little while.

Bolded the ones to watch for bigger impacts minor impacts in italics this is based off LRC

I have the following for my personal forecast, with 2017 and 2021 as analogs Forecast (barrystantonGBP): Named Storms (TS+)20 Hurricanes (Cat 1–5)11 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+)6 Category 5 Hurricanes 3 (Humberto, Melissa, Lorenzo) Estimated ACE 180 (High-End) mainstream is missing something Lezak and alternative forecasters are seeing Can’t just rely on SSTs, ENSO, instability models alone. Mainstream forecasters have been for many years and they usually are well off last year only lezak of all forecasters got close to the numbers of the 2024 season and predicted around 15-18 NS the mainstream did not (they overshot). But the masses chose to discredit lezak!

Mainstream forecasters have been pathetic since 2013. I’ve fully started to ignore them but alternative ones like lezak I can bring you the comparison of all the 2024 forecasts the mainstream did VS lezak. It’s laughable and yes we absolutely are looking at 17-20 NS. Pathetic not to OHC and SST still above average.

Mainstream forecasters have been heavily relying on this same method. They don’t get it right often. I’ve stoped putting trust in them 2017 had the same thing 2017 v2 is on the table. I don’t care how much the mainstream barks. They’re too afraid to admit the SSTs, everything so fr has mirrored 2017 and 2021 to a lesser degree what do they do? Bark about 2012 which is a pathetic analog

Since @yoda summoned me I guess I’ll leave a couple cents here. While I do think solidly active is on the table, I’m still tempted to lean slightly above. 1) We don’t see anywhere near the expanse/depth of ++SST/OHC anomalies in the tropical Atlantic as we have in recent years. 2) While cool neutral ENSO is probably most likely, I think there’s still a little uncertainty with that. 3) The SST anomaly distribution in the tropical Atlantic could lend itself to more stability issues, which has been a dominant feature this decade. With a cool neutral ENSO it’s probably not a huge deal if we’re looking at a 17-20 NS season, but it’s something to respect. If I were to guess right now, I’d say it’s a homebrew type year with systems struggling again in the deep Atlantic but finding far more favorable conditions west, and perhaps a more muted season in activity across the board until we get to September. Major caveat being we’re only now coming out of the seasonal temperature nadir so let’s see if things are running hot mid May.

I am summoned!

It’s April. Winter had its chance DJFM and it failed miserably, per usual the last decade. Here in the hinterlands of the south, let it rain. I can see wanting to hang on as long as possible up there but it’s beyond useless imby.

Rain flipped to snow here around midnight. Currently snow and 34F. Never seen snow this late outside of Killington. Looks like more tomorrow night.

looks like Tolland is down to 33.. @Damage In Tolland must be getting snow now!

just started as snow here!

29 here with moderate snow in the Poconos. The grass and deck have about a half of an inch. Roads are completely wet at 2,075' elevation.

Have you ever worked or driven in snow versus rain?

I was driving back from Sylva in it. Lightning put on a show along with the heavy rain!

A good point here. Folks don't care if we get an inch vs. two inches of rain. Unless it's flooding, there's no big deal to them. Contrast that with winter when a difference of 0.25" liquid means no work/school vs. a nothingburger.

.30 of beneficial rain today in Marysville.

exactly!

Another swing and miss for the NW zones....0Z 3K NAM now pulling a Lucy.

It's mix here now. Wasn't expecting any mix yet, here in at least. Only at 475'

Anyone who is rooting for cold rain over a whitening is crazy. It won’t be 65 degrees, might as well whiten up some surfaces if it’s going to be chilly.

ya that looks fun!

we coat, coming down good here, all SN too.