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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
One aspect that is interesting ... the idea of younger generations perhaps 'not needing' as much direct evidence exposure to be convinced. There's a suggestion here that some of the persuasion toward accepting the objective reality may come by way of these older generations dying off.\ John, you should read the famous quote by Max Planck that applies to all of of society..... -
If anything your snowfall should go up with added moisture as locations further south see their snowfall go down. We saw this in the DC vs NYC trend back in the early 2000s (it's so strange to say that lol.)
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it's a great idea for the Tree From Hell too lol
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Looks like most of the processes in place are to remove CO2 from the air rather than cutting down on fossil fuels. Removing water vapor to make more drinking water has a lot of merit and could help a lot of people that don't have access to clean drinking water around the world.
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Let’s get 85-90 next week for the dude in CT who’s afraid of heat.
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Too hot, had to turn on the AC.
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Ensembles show cutoff potential for early May, leaning towards 2nd week. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of April, which was a mixed bag that's ending much warmer.
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I'm a little late on the tree talk, but when there's police reports of someone driving copper nails into all the invasive pear trees across NJ ... Know it was me.
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I am open to the concept esstentially anywhere below the latitude of about Manchester, NH...however, from about Manchester points northward, they really haven't been struggling as much during this drought period. Its a viable possibility for CNE and SNE, but we clearly aren't there yet in NNE IMHO. -
I don’t take it that way. I really enjoy the back and forth here. This format is really great as it allows for the expansion of ideas and extended conversations.
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Entirely possible. Please don't mistake my tone for dismissiveness, as I am open to the idea, but just don't feel its a forgone conclusion yet. Of course that is more likely the further south one travels... -
Repeating pattern going forward. Warmer weather next several days before the next cold front. Then stronger winds over 30 mph or 40 mph yet again.
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It’s possible that with a bump up over a year or two that the bolded mean may rise off these levels in another 7 years. But my guess is that the reversion will ultimately settle below what we had as a mean when the climate was colder. It’s challenging to get a mean at the level when things were colder since we were able to nickel and dime our way to average between the early 60s to 90s when it was colder. This winter was a nickel and dime special that finished well below average. That was a benefit of a colder climate. More options to get to average or higher.
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I agree regarding the growing feast or famine distributuon of the snowfall, but at least at this latitude, talk to me in 7 years regarding the bolded. -
lakefront wx site?
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striking how old the years of the previous winters were with so little snow.
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We don’t need 7 years in order to know the range of options since the all or nothing snowfall pattern began in the 1990s which is a full 30 years of data. As winters began to warm in places like NYC, the winters mostly became well above or well below average snowfall. The middle range snowfall scenario season became few and far between. So as the winters have continued warming this decade, the below average outcome has become more likely. Hopefully, we can see a snowfall bounce in one or more seasons over the next 7 years. So I agree with one aspect of your comment as to which range of outlined options we experience. But the reversion to the mean you speak of will be a lower mean than was experienced in a colder climate. For the past 7 seasons, Boston has reverted to what used to be the snowfall mean closer to NYC. NYC has reverted to what was average around Philly in a colder era. And Philly snowfall has become more likely the old climate in DC. So in effect the northward shift in storm tracks also shifted the snowfall climate zones more to the north.
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Goes along with my wholistic approach of measuring ENSO intensity being indicative of weak La Nina. -
Min 39.3° Would be awesome if we have already had our last freeze.
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I live on the NH border. Obviously its possible mean snowfall is in decline even at this latitude, but I need to see more data than a 7 year snow drought on the heels of the snowiest decade on record capped off with over 100" in 30 days. -
Highs 4.22 EWR: 83 NYC: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 ACY: 82 BLM: 81 PHL: 80 New Brnswck: 79 TTN: 76 JFK: 75 ISP: 72
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6z still looks a bit wet, but the afternoon looks decent.
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Central PA Spring 2025
Mount Joy Snowman replied to canderson's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
47 when I left the house but hit 41 on the car therm through the rurals. Another ten on tap. -
High of 82.8 degrees yesterday on my station. Incredible weather.
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If we reduce CO2 levels (no chance lol) then water vapor will also reduce naturally. No need to do anything about the water vapor.