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One factor is the pattern reversal along the Atlantic front in March. From warm compacting to cool exporting winds. While extent has expanded there is also high ice export through Fram and Franz Joseph straits. Pattern looks to continue for the next week. Note that this would be an unfavorable pattern in summer. With sunny conditions under Arctic high.

He was better than the alarmists calling for 30+ storms. I said this even before the season started last year, predicting numbers that high is STUPID and will make people not take you seriously. If you want to predict 20+ fine, but don't make predictions that go into uncharted territory.

I believe we're switching to a -AMO and I doubt we see the extreme level of activity that we saw in 2005 and 2020 for a long long time. A very hot and dry summer is MUCH more likely than a crazy hyperactive tropical season.

some of those 30 *storms* weren't actually storms.... they were subtropical. These numbers are getting overinflated because what would never be considered storms back in the 60s-80s are named as such now. In realistic terms, I don't believe it's even possible to have 30 named TC here. We need a much stricter definition of what constitutes a TC.

30+ is stupid, no one should ever make a call like that. It's like calling for 100 inches of snow in NYC. It's just -NOT- ever going to happen.

I think we're in the process of going to -AMO, the +AMO has gone on for too long, 30 years is a normal time for it to switch.

what BS is this? I am wide awake because it so warm with the windows wide open. At 4:00 am it is 70+ degrees outside here in Macungie. 55 degree low doubt we ever reach it.. However at Towanda PA, it is sitting at 46 degrees. Cold front?, why yes. Precip with this cold front - usually a squall line of heavy showers in late April by a cold front with a 24 degree difference in less than 125 miles- not a drop of rain to be found. Winds- of course 20+ mph. Mt. Holly, be prepared for real nice fire condition's on Sunday for our area. This is definitely not April weather- more like late October weather.

I know STL isn’t discussed here much but this occurred during their last heavy rain. Apparently a fairly widespread issue at the moment.

Roads closed and many trees down in north baltimore county. The H on the radar is my home. Does the red velocity indicate rotation or a downburst? I do not see a bright green next to it. The red followed the storm at least a mile.

Had a light shower a few minutes ago, as that cluster (mcs) did a fade right before it got here. The winds though were, and are at times still gusty. Kind of cool, didn't expect it. We're having a kettle fire and might wind it down soon because of it.

Exactly, that was a testament to the record sea surface temps. Had we had water temps similar to the 80s you would be looking at 5-10 named.

Seeing some people in Hagerstown reporting green lightning this evening. Pretty crazy storm.

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === ... April scoring to be adjusted FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA __ west __TOTALS ___ Consensus ________ 259 _292 _288 __839 __302 _322 _250__874 _ 1713 _ 215 _214 _286 __ 715 ___2428 wxallannj _______________237 _300 _308 __ 845 __330 _248 _232 __810 _1655 _256 _220 _253 __ 729 ___2384 BKViking _______________ 201 _288 _274 __ 763 __314 _312 _245 __ 871 _ 1634 __249 _186 _280 __ 715 ___2349 so_whats_happening ___289 _284 _248 __ 821 __258 _328 _251 __837 _ 1658 __208 _166 _306 __ 680 ___2338 hudsonvalley21 ________ 243 _246 _284 __ 773 __240 _322 _261 __823 __1596 __242 _196 _276 __ 714 ___2310 Tom ____________________261 _250 _268 __ 779 __ 282 _252 _268 __802 _ 1581 __270 _202 _216 __ 688 ___2269 RJay ___________________ 269 _322 _320 __911 __ 288 _328 _ 241 __ 857 _ 1768 __ 139 _134 _198 __ 471 ___ 2239 DonSutherland1 ________ 191 _264 _268 __ 723 __262 _284 _218 __ 764 _ 1487 __ 229 _188 _302 __ 719 ___2206 wxdude64 ______________204 _268 _256 __ 728 __ 246_ 276 _216 __ 738 _ 1466 __211 _222 _266 __699___ 2165 Scotty Lightning ________284 _252 _220 __ 756 __215 _224 _ 240 __ 679 _ 1435 __191 _238 _276 __ 705 ___2140 Roger Smith ____________ 224 _290 _272 __ 786 __ 270 _264 _232 __766 _ 1552 __130 _178 _277 __585 ____2137 RodneyS _______________ 232 _260 _278 __ 770 __ 194 _224 _204 __ 622 _ 1392 __169 _206 _332 __707 ___ 2099 StormchaserChuck _____ 261 _214 _216 __ 691 __ 168 _ 312 _ 205 __ 685 __ 1376 __205 _218 _217 __640 ___2016 ___ Normal _______________164 _242 _276 __ 682 __ 216 _104 _105 ___425 _ 1107 __ 214 _200 _276__ 690 ___ 1797 maxim (2/4) _____________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 __ 96_ 120 _ 82 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _135 __ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 2222 Persistence ______________ 70 _144 _206 __ 420 ___ 98 _178 _134 __ 410 _ 830 __ 30 _ 94 _206 __ 330 ____1160 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS ___ Consensus ________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxallannj _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 0 __ 1*___ 0 _____ 0 so_whats_happening ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar RJay ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 *___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Don Sutherland 1 ________0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan Scotty Lightning _________2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 1^ __ 3^__ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___1 __ 2**__1 __ 2 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb, Apr RodneyS ________________ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 1 _____0 StormchaserChuck ______ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*__1*___0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _______________0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 maxim ___________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 18 of 36 ... 10 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 3-0 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr __ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 2**0 _ 5-2 ___ 4.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___2.33-0.0 Stormchaser Chuck _______ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 3*-0__ 3-1 ____ 2.5 - 1.0 Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-1 ____2.5 - 1.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.5 - 0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 Normal ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-1 ____ 1.0 - 1.0 RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 1*-0 __ 1-0 ___ 0.5-0.0 =========================================================

Facebook post of the Jim Thorpe wildfire... https://www.facebook.com/share/p/16RCugKhC7/

Just missed me to my south. Not even a drop of rain from it. It was weakening though…thank God because border counties in MD were hit pretty hard. Camp David recorded an 80 mph wind gust!

Numerous roads closed in the Thurmont to Emmitsburg area in MD due to dozens of trees down

71mph gust at Carroll County Regional Airport AWOS

Holy shit!

Walking and sipping a whiskey after a long shift at the brewery and almost got blown over. Just a couple of minutes of wind and rain isn’t close, but not bad!

Toledo had 86 degrees yesterday (2 degrees below a record of 88 degrees.) It's hard to remember any days with temperatures of 85+ in April. Some rain/thunder hit before 9:00AM (Today, Saturday) and also some light rain happened in the daytime.

Yes, Berryville is about 25 miles west of me, just south of Berkeley Springs High School. Walked my property and found large tree branches down everywhere across my 4 acres. The whole time I was outside I could hear sirens coming from different directions. Rare to hear that out here in the sticks. A large tree is down on I-81 near me and a trampoline landed in the highway also lol

45 gust in Parkton. Power out.