All Activity

https://local21news.com/news/local/forestry-department-monitoring-wildfire-in-cumberland-county-road-closed-southampton-township-shippensburg-baltimore-road-pennsylvania-pa?fbclid=IwY2xjawJ2-5lleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBicmlkETFUMnp5a1h1VmdXNjFPREJzAR57gogTyqtH9i0_XWEpkdAy55lMiWxvtRi_c-3SCQHaAGFsCajQ_suUS1aZNg_aem_UbknZpqcUw7fCQ0F-oKCCA

Can't recall a spring that's been as windy as this one? Dr. Jon Nese has the data to prove that your intuition may be right...and explores why in this week's edition of #WxYz:

Air seems pretty clean this morning? No smoke smell here. Is it elevated? Even so, it must be faint because the sunrise looks pretty typical, maybe a bit more vivid.

I disagree with his methodology. Even if he is right, it won’t be because of a 2nd la nada winter in a row. Basing a winter forecast strictly off ENSO is already dubious to begin with, when ENSO is that weak it is a better idea to rely on other things. Also, like Chuck said the sample size is way too small. Personally, I haven’t even began to narrow down my analog years yet. I just think it is way too early.

38F for the low..nice!

I realize that. 1990-1 was quite mild. I even mentioned that in my subsequent post. He had no choice but to include it. But that doesn’t stop the 5 winter average from being quite cold (~-4). If the 5 winter average had not been cold, I seriously doubt that he would have even posted about the 2nd year La Nada analog so far in advance of next winter. His biggest problem is using 1991-2020 as climo for all 5. That makes these analogs average a solid cold -4, which is deceptive. It’s more like -2 using a more appropriate climo base as I said in the post you quoted.

I do, although sometimes I will reference a more anecdotal note such as a "triple dip la Nina" composite, etc....I remember I lead with that for the 2021-2022 season, but its by no means the basis of the forecast...that would be silly. Agreed. I include that more for just "$hits and giggles"....but I will refer back to it my seasonal work leads to a similar result.

Weaker ENSO is coldest because it affords more opportunity for a colder outcome due to the increased reliance on extra tropical forces, but they absolutely can be warm...its more of an issue of how UNLIKELY very strong ENSO regimes are to be cold.

Well, you have been west of the predominate storm track that past severeal years.

1990-1991 wasn't even a cold winter.

Overnight models are a little cooler around 5/4. There may be a shot for another frost/freeze for CNE then.

This a good map. I have it set for Tamaqua, but you can type in any location you want. https://www.airnow.gov/?city=Tamaqua&state=PA&country=USA

This 2013 paper on snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere is on track so far. Snow is expected to be a lagging indicator of climate change due to offsetting effects of precipitation and temperature and natural variability. Have to be well up in Canada, with average winter temps of -10C, to see a net snowfall benefit from warming. Further south, downward snowfall trends will emerge slowly as the Century progresses. Two steps down and one up kind of thing. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/20/jcli-d-12-00832.1.xml

There's a good chance I'll be doing the initial mow in Westboro on Sunday. I'll be at Pit2 on Saturday--looks like the weather won't allow for it there, though it might not be needed yet. It's a while behind Mass.

At a certain point we may have to accept that we’re now Iowa.

How do my A’s have a better record than the Orioles lol

Long Island is also susceptible to the pine barrens burns, take a look at the Sunrise Fire of 1995. A major urban conflagration event won’t happen in New England, the Hamptons on the other hand….

Thursday Night Widespread haze before 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.

Ended up with .65" in the bucket for the day.

Got a whiff of the smoke coming across the TZ just now. Very faint.

first few days look really warm then we cool to cold for this time of year..

Elias is stuck in 'development mode' and should be fired. The reality is this team is lost and sinking fast. Hyde will probably be the one to go, despite the pitching issues/injuries being largely out of his control. This team is completely listless and with high expectations someone has to take the fall.

Also though we're not in a severe drought , things are still extremely dry and with thunderstorm season coming up , going to be easy for lightning to spark more wildfires

Going to be alittle worse tomorrow with the stronger winds.