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Eastern states long overdue for a very hot summer and nobody would be surprised if it came in 2025.

HHH is much more enjoyable when you have a place to escape it. Same with brutal cold. Heat has always been a requirement, but now AC has as well. Walking inside on a cold winter day and getting warm is the same feeling as walking inside on a HHH day and cooling off. Heat or A/C.

tornado emergency earlier near Coburg/Essex IA debris up to 20000ft?

No AC here.

Storm looked like shit for a few scans, cycled, and looks great again

28/19 Clear. Cold night on the backside of the trough that brought the mountain snow.

64 today

Warmth in the 1-2 week

When's the next threat we be trackin?

148.1" season total here, which is quite likely the final, but I will wait until June 1st before making it official. In essence it was a decent (average to slightly above average snowfall), but not spectacular winter as there was consistent cold and no real cutters or thaws during the heart of the season. However, there were no big storms and it quit rather early. Just lots of clippers and doses of upslope thanks to a busy northern stream. Peak snow depth was 32" in the third week of February.

Honestly, there's nothing more blissful in the summer than spending a nice day at the beach, rinsing off all the sand and gunk after and then sitting out in the porch with a cold drink while listening to hordes of frogs and cicadas with light shorts and a tee. It literally is a transcending experience that so few can fully appreciate, especially in our more varied climate!

On Google Maps it seems that most of houses are on the southern side of town so hopefully it missed them to the north (though it's hard to tell).

Summer pattern is so much more stable than the Winter. Year-to-year has a pretty good overall correlation, like +0.3. So you can expect at like 62% the same pattern as last year most likely, in terms of the H5. Fall I don't want to make a call on yet, I want to see if last years trend of +NAO's in the Summer continues or not. More +NAO this May-Aug may bring about a cooler Fall, imo (so more out to sea in the Atlantic late season). Hard to say on specifics.. watch the MJO. Are you familiar with it? When it's favorable there are like 4x more storms in the Atlantic than when it's unfavorable. And MJO is a 40-day oscillation, so it can be somewhat predictable when you get closer.

What paths and intensities are you thinking for those two?

Sunset big dog roaring out there. One hell of a cell

Small town, but they may have just taken it on the chin.

I would say Humberto is a cool name. Jerry seems like one that wants to be retired. We had a record +PNA this last Winter for non-El Nino. The correlation for following Hurricane season is above average H5 just about everywhere (surprisingly because the last 25 years have been more -PNA, with a warmer planet). Not as much tropical low pressure in that map, though You would say tropics are warming from lingering El Nino (because of the previous winter +PNA correlation). but it usually transitions. Still there is probably a left over El Nino signal in that correlation composite.. and we didn't have an El Nino last Winter.

Tornado emergency on that for Essex IA now.

Which ones to look out for?

#textbook

Sounds good to me. I’m fond of the coc but not of the swamp ass. I’ll take high 70’s and low 80’s with dews in the 50’s and low 60’s every day.

I know the last couple weeks of games for the caps haven't meant a lot but don't like how there playing at all. Defense has been porus for weeks now. I know there resting alot of players tonight but it's been rough for a while now. Hopefully they can turn it on against Montreal next week.

Two beautiful sups in SW Iowa

JM it depends on what kind of SW flow we are talking about. Our best summers had a big Sonoran Heat Release. This is why I was looking at 1980 for a comparable type pattern. An extremely hot airmass coming out of the southwest will completely override any oceanic influence unless you're way out by the Hamptons or East End. Especially in July and August. We've had record heat in the SW the last few years, so let's see if we can tap into that.

Unfortunately for the SA lovers it's looking like a cool summer with not much humidity. Scooter throwing sand around the beach with his hoodie on.