All Activity

If Phoenix reaches 100°, it would be extraordinary. Since March daily records started in 1896, Phoenix has hit 100° just once in March (March 26, 1988: 100°) and 99° three times (most recently on March 25, 2025).

Welcome to March!

I don't care what paper says.I work off my own memory and experiences. Another pretty wild system considering a good chunk of the US has barely warmed up on the lower levels. I've seen this before, and it's my thinking we're on business end of a three year uptick in severe weather. The last two systems had no problem kicking off decent storms, in low level environments that you wouldn't normally expect to see them yet. The amount of lightning that some of the meager cells have been able to generate this spring in parts of the country this early is reminiscent of some great storm years.

Muah hahahahahaaaaa

Yeah, 100s for Phoenix is likely

Yes. There's a strong indication of heat on the guidance.

Looks like Phoenix is going to obliterate their March high temperature record again. March 13-23 looks really warm in Las Vegas, Denver, Phoenix. That roll-forward thing I posted a few posts back is holding merit for March.

63 this morning, 83.5 for our high. House is still comfortable with just ceiling fans. House temp at 73.

NWS forecasting .16 inches for Candler for the next 3 days. Already had .33 yesterday. Hard to believe this line will just produce .16 inches of rain.

Models look really warm for Phoenix again mid to late March. They might break their March record.

Except the north. Going to be a wet and cool spring .

83 at 2:22pm. I caved, A/C is on.

I expect it will wind up warmer. I think the warming post 3/21 isn't adequately reflected, but we'll see.

Would be surprised if NYC only finishes with a +0.8 departure, but still very early so can understand being conservative.

Match 2018 had to be the snowiest March here in Suffolk, correct me if I’m wrong?

Already happening here. Sunny spots getting elephant man look.

Sucks coming off Tip’s dopamine high last several weeks. Talk about doldrums.

All sun areas will be completely nuked but we’ll have areas that get mostly shade that are prob still totally covered I’m guessing.

Big difference in my exposed spot vs down the street. Gonna be some interesting dichotomies in the pack department come this week.

75 degrees with sw wind 20 - 30 mph!!!

Well yeah, it was pretty cold this winter. Top 15 at ORH airport since 1948. So that by definition means it’s not really “normal”…and in the context of post-2020, it’s obviously a shock to the system. But those warmest 2020-2024 torch winters weren’t remotely normal either even in the modern context. It was like Virginia climo. But we had back to back furnaces so I think a lot of people got over their skis in the other direction in terms of expectations.

Hopefully nothing tragic like in Michigan & Oklahoma yesterday.

Is out!

A once great blanket of snow now lies in scattered, broken fragments. Across the landscape, winter’s grip is breaking. Large, weathered piles of snow, grayed by time and road dust, stand as the last monuments to the winter that was. Soon, these remnants will surrender to the strengthening sun and the season's inexorable rise in temperatures. One by one they will dissolve into water, soaking into the ground or running along the sides of streets. With their departure, the last visible traces of the season’s story will disappear from an increasingly colorful landscape that will emerge as the calendar presses deeper into spring. Following some early fog, tomorrow will provide an early taste of spring. Clouds will break and the temperature will surge into the lower and perhaps middle 60s across much of the region. The eastern half of Long Island and south shores of Long Island and Connecticut will remain markedly cooler. Interior sections of New Jersey could see the mercury approach or reach 70°. The first half of next week will likely see highs in the 60s. Some 70s are possible in the warmer spots, especially in interior New Jersey. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. Afterward, it could turn cooler. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. There may be a short window of opportunity for some snow, but snow is not assured. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +30.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.140 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.6° (0.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Looks like a CONUS-wide blowtorch setting up on the ensembles