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The rain that fell last week around DC wasn’t enough to keep up with climo. DCA now -7.44” ytd.

So much hype already on social media

Have fun, check out the road runners in the zoo!

SPC AC 181219 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts will be the primary threat, but a few tornadoes are possible, including perhaps a strong tornado. ...OH Valley and Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast over the Upper Great Lakes towards the Northeast during the period. The primary upper vorticity max will rotate through the base of the larger-scale trough and through the St. Lawrence Valley, before an upstream disturbance west of James Bay this morning pivots southeast and reaches Maine/eastern Quebec by early Sunday. Surface analysis this morning places a 1004-mb low north of Georgian Bay and a cold front extending west-southwestward into northern IA. An attendant warm front arching southeastward through the Lower Great Lakes and draped over the Mid-Atlantic states will advance northward as the cyclone develops east towards northern Maine by late evening. Concurrently, the cold front will push southeast across much of Great Lakes into the OH Valley. South of the boundary, a very moist air mass was sampled this morning by 12 UTC raobs and surface observations (i.e., upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints). A few thunderstorm clusters this morning have developed near the warm frontal zone from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic states. The early day storm activity will likely be limited in storm vigor, due in part to initially widespread cloud cover inhibiting strong heating in the areas downstream over parts of PA/NY. Gradual dissipation of clouds and heating coupled with the northeastward advancement of the warm sector will promote a broad area to become moderately to strongly unstable later today (1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) from the OH Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. A belt of westerly 30-45 kt 700-mb flow from northern VA into the Northeast will aid in storm organization and severe potential this afternoon and evening. Models differ substantially regarding evolution/timing of possible bands of storms and clusters with embedded cells. Regardless of specific details, it seems plausible several multicellular bands of storms will develop during peak heating and organize as these bands move east. Some of the more intense cells will potentially become supercellular posing an all-hazards severe risk. Have largely unchanged the previous outlook given the inherent thunderstorm evolution-based uncertainties. Potentially widespread damaging gusts [50-60 mph, locally stronger (55-70 mph) perhaps paralleling the I-95 corridor from Chesapeake Bay into southern New England]. A few tornadoes are possible both from linear and cellular storm structures given some low-level hodograph enlargement and moist low levels.

Records: Highs: EWR: 104 (2012) NYC: 101 (1953) LGA: 101 (2012) JFK: 100 (2013) Lows: EWR: 58 (1946) NYC: 57 (1925) LGA: 62 (1962) JFK: 58 (1962) Historical: 1889 - A cloudburst in West Virginia along the small creeks in Wirt County, Jackson County and Wood County claimed twenty lives. Rockport, WV, reported nineteen inches of rain in two hours and ten minutes that Thursday evening. Tygart Creek rose 22 feet in one hour, and villages were swept away on Tygart, Slate, Tucker, and Sandy Creeks. (The Weather Channel) 1936 - The all time record high temperature for the state of Kansas was set when a 121-degree high temperature fried Fredonia. (US National Weather Service Wichita) 1936: This day marked the end of the hottest period on record for La Crosse, WI. From the 5th through the 18th, temperatures climbed to 90° or better everyday, and at or above 100° eight times. During this time six record temperatures were set and the average high temperatures for the period was 101.0°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1942: A record deluge occurred at Smethport in northern Pennsylvania, with 30.7 inches in just six hours. The downpours and resultant flooding in Pennsylvania were devastating. The following U.S. records were set at Smethport, PA: rainfall in three hours: 28.50 inches, rainfall in 4 hours and 30 minutes: 30.70 inches and 12-hour rainfall: 34.30 inches.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1942 - A record deluge occurred at Smethport in northern Pennsylvania, with 30.7 inches in just six hours. The downpours and resultant flooding in Pennsylvania were devastating. (David Ludlum) 1970: A tropical depression formed east of the Yucatan Peninsula. As the system developed into Tropical Storm Becky, it provided National Hurricane Center forecasters their first opportunity to study the evolution of a tropical cyclone with the aid of time-lapse movies of ATS (Applications Technology Satellite) photographs in real time, or, The Movie Loop. Becky moved into the Florida panhandle as a tropical storm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972: Heavy rain, unofficially measured at 10 to 11 inches, fell in the Mooreland and Mutual areas of Woodward County Oklahoma. The heavy rain caused severe soil erosion, but crop damage was minimal, as wheat already had been harvested. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1986 - One of the most photo-genic tornadoes touched down in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis, MN, during the late afternoon. The very slow moving tornado actually appeared live on the evening news by way of an aerial video taken by the KARE-TV helicopter crew. The tornado, unlike most, was quite the prima donna, staying visible to tens of thousands of persons for thirty minutes. It was moderate in intensity, with winds of 113-157 mph, and caused 650 thousand dollars damage. (Storm Data) 1987 - Cool weather prevailed in the western U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Alamosa, CO, with a reading of 38 degrees. The low of 52 degrees at Bakersfield, CA, was a record for July. Up to eight inches of snow covered the Northern Sierra Nevada Range of California from a storm the previous day. During that storm, winds gusting to 52 mph at Slide Mountain, NV, produced a wind chill reading of 20 degrees below zero. Susanville, CA, reached 17 degrees that previous day, Blue Canyon, CA, dipped to a July record of 36 degrees, and the high of 44 degrees at Klamath Falls, OR, smashed their previous record for July by ten degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Sweltering heat continued in California, with record highs of 111 degrees at Redding and 112 degrees at Sacramento. Death Valley, CA, hit 127 degrees. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central Plains Region produced baseball size hail at Kimball, NE, wind gusts to 79 mph at Colby, KS, and six inches of rain near Lexington, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, northern Texas and Arkansas during the afternoon, and into the night. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail at Stamford, TX, and wind gusts to 92 mph near Throckmorton, TX. Record heat continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 115 degrees, and a 111 degree reading at Midland, TX, was second only to their all-time record high of 112 degrees established sixteen days earlier. (The National Weather Summary) 1992: On this date through the 18th, Thunderstorms crossed Wayne County in western New York State dumping heavy rains over already saturated grounds and swollen streams. Rainfall amounts exceeded six inches in two hours on the 17th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: In south central Kansas, heavy rains in and around Stafford County caused flooding of the normally dry Antelope Creek. Flooding of roads and streets began in Radium during the morning hours. The flooding continued until the morning hours on the 19th. This was the worst flooding in Radium since the spring of 1973. Flooding continued until about 9 am on the 19th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: An F5 tornado struck Oakfield, WI during the evening, injuring 17 people and destroying 47 of the 320 homes in the town. Damage estimates totaled over $40 million dollars. In addition, 56 homes as well as numerous businesses and churches sustained heavy damage. A massive rainstorm in north central and northeast Illinois led to widespread flooding. Aurora reported 16.91 inches of rain, establishing a state record for the most rain in a single day. Other heavy totals included 13.60 inches at Joliet, 9.24 inches in Wheaton, 8.09 inches in DeKalb, and 7.82 inches at Elgin. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: Hurricane warnings were posted along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama as Hurricane Danny headed toward shore, first brushing southeastern Louisiana where tropical storm force winds and high tides caused severe erosion. Grand Isle, LA recorded a wind gust to 95 mph shortly before midnight. 100 mph winds and torrential rains, downed power lines, damaged or sunk boats and left flooding in its wake. Thunderstorms developed ahead of a strong cold front and brought high winds and large hail to the western southern tier, Niagara frontier and Genesee Valley in western New York State. A 74 mph gust was recorded in Orchard Park. Hail, as large as golf balls, damaged crops in Niagara and Orleans counties. Several fires were reported as a result of lightning strikes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: Miles City, MT set their all-time high temperature record with 113°. Highs of 100° or higher occurred 6 times between the 12th through the 19th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) . 2008: A man and a woman went outside a home in Standish, ME to get a pair of sunglasses the family dog had taken from 1 of the 3 young children inside. Unfortunately, lightning hit a nearby tree, then traveled through the ground, killing both people. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2010: Thunderstorm winds gusted to 72 mph at BWI late evening on 18th. Ref. July PRESTO Page 1

Easily the strongest east based El Niño in recent recorded history

We’ll have to see after the first batch gets thru around 1 pm or so and see how much clearing and destabilization occurs for the 2nd line later. The less action in the first line will help out for stronger action later. Hopefully the Mesoscale models pick up on the action in a few hours. So it’s wait and see for a little bit. SPC will have an update in a few minutes, we’ll see their thoughts.

73 / 64 clouds some smoke, storms into SNJ and PA now. Front is meeting some resistance from the Atlantic ridge which is pumpig more humid flow north today. We'll see if we can clear out any to fuel stronger storms this afternoon, it is looking to stay cloudy and maybe the main threat will be flash floodings where storms form, but still severe threat through the afternoon. Clears out for a marvelous Sunday / Monday as trough pushes drier cooler air. Southerly flow pumps humid and next threat of heavy rain/storms Tuesday / Wedneday before clearing out Thursday. Overall trough into the northeast 7/19 - 7/24. Beyond there near normal 7/25 with moderation and warming towards the 27th as western heat begins to build and come east. 7/18 : Storms heavy rain 7/19 - 7/20 : Gorgeous Word Cup game 7/21 - 7/22: Rain / heavy rain / storms >1 inch widespread 7/23 - 7/27 : near 0- below normal overall 7/27 - beyond : warming western heat builds and starts coming east.

Once again the high wind potential is the greatest threat later today

Thanks.

good question

The WPC qpf output is a lot more robust for seacoast NH than model guidance consensus. The storms developing near Rochester NY hold together and swing through this afternoon.

Looks steined up this way. Good luck to west/south

Am I crazy or do the models have very little?

FMH/MVY gonna steal my rain again

Good technical discussion from the AM OKX AFD: .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough digs down into the Great Lakes Saturday and swings across eastern Canada and the northeast US Saturday night. Ahead of this feature, shortwave energy will pass across the area this afternoon as a warm front lifts north of the area into the afternoon. A pre-frontal trough will follow late in the afternoon with the main cold front moving across the area this evening with the potential of another line of showers/storms. Severe thunderstorms and potential flash flooding are the main concerns this afternoon and evening. It is important to note the exact location of the severe and flooding hazards may not become clear until a few hours before the onset due to the aforementioned uncertainties. PWATs are progged to reach between 2 and 2.25 inches, which is well above the observed 90th percentile per OKX RAOB climo. Freezing levels look to range from 13-15 kft with deep warm cloud layers, supporting efficient warm rain processes. These ingredients support the potential for heavy downpours in any convection this afternoon and evening. There is still some uncertainty with the amount destabilization today, especially with lingering smoke this morning and potentially apart of the afternoon (see key message 2 for more details on the smoke). The passage of the shortwave should allow the smoke to move away from the area in the afternoon. The greatest instability may set up just to our southwest, especially as the shortwave moves across the area. There should still be at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, but surface based CAPE could be limited this afternoon, unless greater destabilization occurs further north. The mid level flow is also fast enough to keep the convection moving across the area, which may limit the flooding potential. The latest HREF has a small area of 30 percent chance of greater than 3 inches in 3 hours just south of of our NE NJ and NYC metro zones. This is close to our flood watch and most susceptible areas for flash flooding, so no changes were made to the flood watch. Peak hourly rainfall rates of 1.5-2"/hour are possible. Isolated instances of flash flooding in some urban areas across the I-95 in S CT and potentially western LI are possible, but not enough confidence for an expansion of the watch at this time. WPC has maintained the slight risk for excessive rainfall. SPC has expanded the enhanced risk into much of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and NYC metro with a slight risk remaining elsewhere. As noted above, there is uncertainty with the amount of destabilization due to smoke and potential of a round of convection as early as late morning and early-mid afternoon. The 00z HREF is indicated a mean SBCAPE of around 1000 J/kg across NE NJ into the NYC metro, but an ensemble maximum of upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon for these areas. Elsewhere, the mean is around 500 J/kg with an ensemble max of 1500-2000 J/kg. The max surface CAPE values are possible if the smoke clears sooner and if the first round of convection is weak or moves out quicker. Bulk shear around 40 kt continues to be progged and there is low level directional shear/curvature in the wind profiles. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. There is also a risk of a tornado, especially if the warm front lingers nearby, which would enhance low level helicity and shear. If we are able to get clearing and the first wave does not leave behind subsidence, then the potential line of storms with the cold front/pre-frontal trough could also contain a few severe thunderstorms. The cold front moves through the area around midnight, bringing an end to the threat of showers and thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Smoke is beginning to filter back into the area from the south early this morning as high pressure has moved offshore. HRRR, RAP, and RRFS smoke fields all show areas of smoke lingering across the area this morning and potentially into a portion of the afternoon. The smoke should begin to clear out and move to the east as a shortwave and showers/storms move across the area. There will be reduced air quality and visibilities into at least the early afternoon. NYDEP, NJDEP, and CTDEEP all have air quality alerts in effect until midnight.

Sun seems more like actual sun and not a weird apocalyptic sun, this morning. Had to make a call about going to Hershey today, smoke looks to start clearing up there midday and storms not until way later, so we’re going.

Such a silly back and forth

Everything severe wise seems wagons south . Like South of 84. Hopefully this is not another miss with light showers

Hello again! Nice to hear from you!! I'm happy to give your comment the respect that it deserves. I'm not joking. First two sentences: I'm not concerned about events. Their not supremely important. I'm talking about the millions who work and or play outside. Back in the seventies, the best way to be fired from your job was to call your supervisor and say, I'm not going to work today or the rest of the week because the air is too dirty. Those who had been trapped in an office all day looked forward to being outside in the fresh air for an evening softball game. Some of those who worked and played in all that dirty air have lived to be over 100 years old. Last sentence: Now we know better. Do we really? I'm good friends with a person who will receive major surgery next week. Visiting and receiving phone pre-surgery guidance from about 6 people from the hospital during the past week was a roller coaster of contradictory advice. About 4 people directly gave about 25 do's and dont's. The other 2 directly contradicted some of the guidance from the first 4. Who was correct??? Watch out for those high winds later today. The SPC really enhances the threat around D.C. compared to Augusta County. Otherwise, enjoy your day.

Part of the reason we are getting the more typical 2020s summer +AMO/-PDO Niña-like pattern in North America is due to the Nino forcing being focused in the Southern Hemisphere. The forcing is usually the strongest in the Northern Hemisphere in July. This could be related to the record July El Niño strength coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere winter.

Ugh.. I thought the rain knocked down the smoke. I'm headed out for a 8 mile morning hike and it smells like electrical fire lol. Oh well. I can't sit in the house all day.