All Activity

damn I thought our stretch of bad winters started with 22-23, 23-24, 24-25 so we've had 4 bad winters in a row and not 3?

21-22 not good. You mean 20-21.

But how is it that the first high temperature below 60 has barely moved Chris?

wow no connection between October and the following winter.... look at 2017 at +6.4 and we had one of our best winters after that ! October 2021 +6.9 and the following winter was pretty good too !

My bday almost always is mild in 50’s/60’s. I’m sure another year of that is coming

Were they ever?

ORH climate. Both of us I believe hit 37 lowest temp so far

I left my hanging petunia outside during that one night of 28° and it was unfazed. Like tomatoes, those things usually start dying with temps in the 30s. But yeah, Tolland has an epically long growing season.

Thanks!

2022 the oasis of cool below normal October of the last 10 Octpbers back to 2016. EWR Oct Dep 2025: +2.5 (through 10/17) 2024: +4.0 2023: +4.5 2022: - 1.6 2021: +6.9 2020: +0.6 2019: + 2.9 2018: -0.1 2017: +6.4 2016: +1.4

The only automated station there is 1P1. Whether or not they did manned obs there in the past (pre 1990s)…I’m not sure. I’m not aware of an old ICAO identifier there. Just the COOP. Are you looking for anything in particular?

Any idea what caused this strange temp pattern?

You wrote this, "Even if CO2 increase was stopped today and reversed - we would all still be doomed. Thus - why bother? Unless perhaps you think we have the ability to stop continental drift (?)" I didn't. All of the points I raised about sea level rise are based on the science. I provided links to papers. Doggerland and Delos are examples. They come from the literature. I get that you want to maintain the status quo and rationalize it. But those rationalizations don't change the reality that the status quo approach is a matter of choice. Choices have consequences. If, what is modeled, proves accurate, the consequences will have been foreseen and avoidable. Those consequences would have resulted from a cumulative set of choices that were made.

AI's take NOAA/NWS don’t just use raw 30-year averages, but instead apply adjustments to make the normals consistent and reliable: Data quality: Adjusts for missing days, station moves, or instrument changes. Internal consistency: Daily values are forced to add up to monthly values, which raw averages rarely do. Smoothing: Uses harmonic fits and scaling to avoid jagged, unrealistic daily swings. That said, if a station has a perfectly complete and consistent record with no gaps or biases, these adjustments may not add value and could actually move the result slightly away from the “true” raw average. Yes, the NOAA/NWS normals process applies to both rainfall and snowfall (precipitation as a whole), not just temperature. Rainfall (liquid precipitation): Daily totals are averaged and then smoothed/adjusted so that when added together, they equal the official monthly precipitation normal. Snowfall: Treated separately as part of the “precipitation normals” family. Daily snowfall normals are computed in a similar way, using 30-year station records, and then adjusted to ensure consistency with monthly totals. Snow depth: NOAA also produces normals for snow depth (how much is on the ground), which requires additional handling since it depends on accumulation and melt, not just daily totals. So , rainfall, snowfall, and snow depth all get the same kind of adjustment and smoothing treatment as temperature, ensuring consistency and avoiding jagged raw averages.

October is one of our fastest warming months for all the stations in our climate division since 1981. Our area has been warming at 1.1° per decade in October along with January. May and November are the slowest warming months at 0.4° and 0.3° per decade.

Is it similar to how snowfall amounts sometimes get adjusted after the fact, sometimes even months later?

I wonder if the added cost with extreme weather will influence them or will they blame that on something else? I thought October would be warming faster than it is, especially after October last year.

Our climate is warming very quickly across all the seasons. But it’s an uneven process so that some months are warming faster than others. Most people that don’t follow the weather and climate as closely as we do tend to normalize the warmer climate and more extreme weather in only 2-7 years.

Here's something I found. Unfortunately, it's a general overview of the process. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/Documentation_Daily_Gridded_Normals V1.0.pdf

We bust balls about the long growing season and fake cold… in the end none of it really matters until the snow flies. ULL around that early Nov period on the models occasionally, maybe you can thread the needle for birthday flakes.

February 13, 2014: 9.5"; PNA: -1.097

It's kind of crazy that they don't explain exactly why and how the numbers were adjusted per station.

I felt they were great last winter as far as seeing the pattern 10 plus days out. The prior winter as well as 22-23 they were very bad.

This was the strongest North Pacific Jet on record for a 7 year period from 2019 to 2025. You can see how much stronger it was than earlier defined intervals. Very extensive area from Asia to North America from 30N to 75N.

I'm trying to figure out what 9.5 or so event is at -1.2...probably one of the 2010-2011 events. Dec 84 and Dec 90 clearly present there as the 6 and 7 inch events.