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Not that anyone asked by imho, this evolution was inevitable. It kind of goes along with arguing against those with AI paranoia ( in general...), posturing all these dystopian fears over a future guided by x-y-z plausible consequence... There may be value in those concerns, but unfortunately, where was all this improving computing power over the generations going to go in the first place? The advent in technological history of Artificial Intelligence, at least to the scale of an Asimovian simulacra, was going to eventually result - and it's not impossible that actual self-awareness ( currently dubbed 'the singularity' in popular culture ) will one soon enough arrive. Anyway, the evolution of these modeling systems is just inevitable. Beyond that concept, these rapid update species make more sense to have in place with the inevitability of a more ubiquitous Quantum Computing "comes on line". This latter aspect is going to be the biggest game changer in forecast modeling since Fourier Transform theory was integrated by Navier-Stokes fluid mechanics - the fundamental principle of how wave mechanics are propagated through the atmospheric medium. .. caressed by thermodynamics, 3-D integral calculus and parameterized by the Coriolis Parameter... one can perhaps intuitively see how/why this becomes exponentially more blown up by chaos out in time, because all those tiny wave functions both initially, and emergent along the processing way, feed back on crippling the outlook by corruption. Quantum Computing does such a vastly improved ability at predicting where and most importantly whence those area fabricated, it can also tell something about whether they are fictitious or real. Keep the real; toss the sci-fi. What remains is ...panacea for random contamination if you will, a fix for what the original modeler forefathers warned, 'because we can't asses the actual quantum states of every particle in space and time, chaos that results means that no weather model will be sufficiently accurate beyond a certain number of days' In the years since ...that had been extended considerably just by coming up with more physically proven mechanics, combined with denser empirical input data ( initialization of grids and so forth). A lot of error production while processing comes from interpolation to "fill" gaps in data sparseness...etc With ever improving sensory technology combined with Quantum Computing ... that sounds quite a bit like we closing that gap on Quantum blindness. Sorry...just some op ed'ing.

Yeah, the last Nam upgrade was in March of 2017. It nailed the January 2016 event. Sad to see the SPC HREF go as its ensemble max snowfall was actually pretty good with the split bands west and east of NYC and 20”+ amounts for the February 2026 event. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/review-of-jan-2016-blizzard-preliminary-snow-totals-validates-dc-measurement The preliminary Central Park measurement will be adjusted upward to 27.5 inches, which will become an all-time snowfall record for New York City when certified by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. A communication error between the weather forecast office in Upton, New York, and the Central Park Conservancy, which volunteers to take official snow measurements in Central Park, led to an inaccurate preliminary total of 26.8 inches. The snow team found the mistake when reviewing the Conservancy’s logbook.

awww yeah. gonna cook

People swear it's not windy here. It's always windy.

Devastating. We'll never get NAM'd again.

Can confirm. The warm season is ready to come in like a banshee

Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (1956) NYC: 89 (1956) LGA: 89 (1956) JFK: 82 (2004) Lows: EWR: 37 (1938) NYC: 39 (1895) LGA: 42 (2019) JFK: 41 (2020) Historical: 1866: A tornado destroyed a toll bridge near Barnet, VT. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1878: Record low temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 39 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1881: Record maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 95 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1922: A mid-afternoon hailstorm dropped hailstones 0.5 inches in diameter at Montpelier, VT. Along the 550 yard wide and 3 to 4 mile long hail swath, ice laid 4 inches deep with local piles up to two feet deep. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1930 - A man was killed when caught in an open field during a hailstorm northwest of Lubbock TX. It was the first, and perhaps the only, authentic death by hail in U.S. weather records. (David Ludlum) 1961: A late season storm covered Cheyenne, WY with 10.3 inches of snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1975: Severe thunderstorm winds lasting 20-30 minutes damaged over 90 of the 600 planes based at the Ft. Lauderdale International Airport. The FAA tower measured winds gusting to 101 mph. Tied down aircraft were ripped from their moorings. The roof of the terminal was slightly damaged, hail was reported and two inches of rain fell in an hour. Tennis-ball size hail fell at Wernersville, PA. Hail accumulated to a depth of 10 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1980: An F3 tornado ripped directly through the center of Kalamazoo, Michigan, killing five people, injuring 79, leaving 1,200 homeless and causing $50 million in damage. The tornado passed directly over the American Bank, where a barograph reported a pressure drop of 0.59 inches. 1981 - A tornado 450 yards in width destroyed ninety percent of Emberson TX. People did not see a tornado, but rather a wall of debris. Homes were leveled, a man in a bathtub was hurled a quarter of a mile, and a 1500 pound recreational vehicle was hurled 500 yards. Miraculously no deaths occurred in the tornado. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front brought an end to the early season warm spell in the north central U.S., but not before the temperature at Sioux City IA soared to a record warm 95 degrees. Strong southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front gusted to 52 mph at Marais MI. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Rockford MN, and wind gusts to 75 mph at Belmond IA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Strong winds along a cold front ushering cold air into the northwestern U.S. gusted to 69 mph at Myton UT. Temperatures warmed into the 80s ahead of the cold front, as far north as Montana. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region during the afternoon and night. A thunderstorm at Killeen TX produced wind gusts to 95 mph damaging 200 helicopters at Fort Hood causing nearly 500 million dollars damage. Another thunderstorm produced softball size hail at Hodges TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front spawned ten tornadoes from eastern Wyoming to northern Kansas, including seven in western Nebraska. Thunderstorms forming ahead of a cold front in the eastern U.S. spawned five tornadoes from northeastern North Carolina to southern Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms over southeast Louisiana deluged the New Orleans area with four to eight inches of rain between 7 AM and Noon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: This outbreak produced tornadoes extending from the Mississippi River near Burlington, Iowa, to the west of Bloomington, Illinois. Two violent tornadoes, each ranked at F4 intensity, were reported. The first tornado traveled 60 miles from near Fort Madison, Iowa, to the southeast of Galesburg, Illinois producing over $10 million damage. The town of Raritan, Illinois was hit the hardest. The second violent tornado traveled 7 miles across Fulton County from Ipava to Lewistown, Illinois producing $6 million damage. Another strong tornado took a 25-mile path across parts of Fulton, Mason, and Tazewell Counties. The storms also produced softball-size hail south and northwest of Macomb in Illinois. Five men were injured in Lawrence County, Indiana when lightning struck one of them and traveled to the other four. There were 184 reports of severe weather, including over three dozen tornadoes. 2001: Two brothers hiking with their family in the Zion National Park in Utah were swept away when flash flooding suddenly struck after a burst of heavy rain. The youngsters were ahead of the rest of their family when they came to a part of the trail that was underwater. They were swept away as they attempted the cross the flooded part of the trail. 2002: (12th-13th) flash flooding occurred on almost every watercourse in MO’s Iron County; $5.5 million damage. Many people trapped in cars by flood waters. Near Ironton, a man crossing Stouts Creek by foot to rescue his dogs was swept away/drowned. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2008: Shreveport-Bossier, Louisiana: Torrential rainfall breaks several records, including the most rain to fall in a 20-minute interval and the most rainfall in a 180-minute period. More than 10 inches of rain deluged the Shreveport area, flooding at least 125 homes. The National Weather Service reports 4.43 inches fell in one hour braking the old record of 3.16 inches. (Ref. WxDoctor)

63 / 48 clouds and showers shunted north for now. Clouds coming in maybe some stray showers/light rain later. Wet Thursday 0.25 - 0.50. The cut off trough ull slowly moves through and out Friday with late clearing but cool. Moderation quickly to a much warmer pattern Sat (5/16) - beyond. >80s Sat - Wed for many and perhaps some 90 degree readings on Mon/Tue. After a transient front , ridge rebuilds and outside of onshore tenedency an overall warm to very warm period ensuing through the Memorial day weekend and the the week of may 26th.

If this traditional ONI projection is correct, we would not only set a record for the traditional ONI since 1950, it would also set a record for the new RONI. If we assume the RONI lags the ONI by .05C to 0.6C and the traditional ONI peaks at that level, it would very easily beat the highest RONI on record since 1950, which was 1982-83 at +2.5C ^ “Well, after looking through the climate reanalysis on SST anomalies dating back to 1980. If the Preliminary SSTs get confirmed. We are now ahead of the 3 most famous El Niños on record. 1982-1983, 1997-1998 & 2015-2016. Again, I'm not kidding, we are running about 0.18 °C higher. This El Niño has a very high ceiling with a possible peak in November & December of this year of 3.5-3.9 °C above average. Not only that, there is a slim possibility that SST in the Niño 3.4 region may hit a new all-time record of 29.9-30.0 °C, which is 85-87 F.”

Not a popular move. I feel the same way...see above.

I'd rather they all hung around. I personally don't think the RRFS is quite ready to solo in prime time. At least we knew the inherent short comings in the existing soon to leave us models and could use them as tools. NAM always seemed superior to other guidance (most of the time) in nailing CAD and speed of mid level warming in snow to mix/rain scenarios. Will miss that.

NBMv5 became operational last week. Curious to see how this performs.

Summer/Deep Spring starts Saturday good riddance to the extended late winter/early Spring meh

The RRFS is good right?

Euro / NAM are relative Steins east of River . Both 25-.40 or so . Only gfs has significant rains there

If everyone thinks its dry now just wait until we move into Fall and Winter. With a super, super, super strong EL Nino coming the Walker Circulation is going to get so expansive and swallow the entire U.S. There will be no storm track...just a massive high pressure from coast to coast. We'll be seeing highs in the 80's into November and highs in the 50's and 60's through the winter. No precip

I thought hard about that . But we’ve mainly lost good winters ( I know we just had one). But they are so rare anymore that I’d rather HHH and storms and possible canes if a rifle is as pointed at my knee.

And the summer months above the winter months. We old now.

Wow Feb above Dec despite the holiday and low sun angle? Winter wise…does anything beat a snowy Dec?

The spring months are the worst. Just a terrible season . Julorch Augdewst Junorch January February December Septorcher November Octornace Mayorch Morch Napril

Growing consensus for 1-3” S NH/ME into NE MA…euro, gfs, 3k. The soaker I’ve been waiting for?

I did hear on channel 16 weather that this was the coldest May to date on record for northern PA. .

Mostly cloudy today with highs not too far from average near 70 degrees. Some rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm late tonight ending toward rush hour tomorrow. We fall back to below normal temperatures both tomorrow and Friday before a big warm up with temperatures across the county reaching around 80 degrees on Saturday and the mid to upper 80’s on Sunday and Monday. Next Tuesday should be the hottest day with temperatures especially in lower valley locations possibly touching 90 degrees. We will get cooler again by the middle of next week.

Mostly cloudy today with highs not too far from average near 70 degrees. Some rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm late tonight ending toward rush hour tomorrow. We fall back to below normal temperatures both tomorrow and Friday before a big warm up with temperatures across the county reaching around 80 degrees on Saturday and the mid to upper 80’s on Sunday and Monday. Next Tuesday should be the hottest day with temperatures especially in lower valley locations possibly touching 90 degrees. We will get cooler again by the middle of next week.