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Bam has a good pull you away from the cliff update on YouTube this morning

Picked up 2 tenths of an inch of snow overnight via a lake effect streamer.

You need to take a look at climo with single-digits snowfall into January....

I don't see any days above 30 for the next week. Oddly no nights in the single digits either during that time. I suspect with the snow cover and some calm nights we have at least a couple.

It appears we hit 40* around 8:30a.m and didn't drop below it until 5:30pm. There was a noon-time spike to 42 but quickly went down to within a few tenths of 40*. With the rain, no doubt the pack took a beating. Not sure when I'm headed back up........but I don't think I'll like what I see.

Scattered snow showers and maybe even a heftier squall or 2 over the next 3 days. Deep winter indeed.

I agree. The forecast development WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern typically does not favor large East Coast snowstorms during January 1-10. Instead, lighter snows are the rule. If one is searching for a genuine cold and snowy pattern, a WPO-/AO-/PNA+ combination is far better.

Its December 30 Way too early for that.

HRRR is interesting. Looks like a narrow bar of enhanced snow. And coatings to an inch around it.

Thank god we had a bit of snow last night to add some grit to the ice.

Well this is some good news.

Overnight runs remind me of our bowl game. Lots of hope and excitement dashed by the reality that we suck.

Not even in early to mid January?

I think you have a ways to go on that part imo…December 30th isn’t that time frame yet. At 1/30 you may be in trouble though…good thing that is still 4weeks away.

I am on a roll this morning. I absolutely hate agendas. This came from a local met, and I am embarrassed for this person. "Possibly aided by an industrial plant in Hawkins Co." That just burns my biscuits. I have news for folks not from this area...we certainly have lots of industrial plants in Kingsport, and they do affect the weather. But there ain't jack crap upstream from that snow band. It is orographic lift from Bays Mountain which sets up in the lee of the mountain. We have studied and documented it here. I don't understand how a local met hasn't seen this about 1000x time already - and this person should know!!! 2" in Gray reported on the ground

17 for my low and nothing at the house. Lots of rime ice above 4000 ft though. I did see a report of flurries in Waynesville.

Getting perilously close to the point at which I can just about guarantee an unprecedented 8th consecutive dud-winter for MBY.

Before or after the ball drops?

Picked up around 2" last night. Going to need a big rally to get to the forecasted totals. The wind direction is ideal but the high winds must be disrupting the bands. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations between 8 and 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph through this evening. * WHERE...Geauga County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Initial round of lake effect snow will bring an additional 2 to 3 inches of snowfall through tonight. Another impactful period of heavy lake effect snow will begin this evening and continue through Thursday morning. Snowfall amounts during this timeframe will range between 8 and 10 inches.

I also don't see the need for all of the hype right now....I see nothing exciting in terms of threats.

There is apparently a TDOT camera in just the right area at mm 53: Under two miles up I-81 a mm 54.8: I wish I had planned on a Kingsport trip today, so I could do some investigating.

So far, since late November, we have been following a textbook front-loaded canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. They are typically cold in the east from late November through late January before they flip for February. Whether or not this one continues to follow that from here on out or becomes atypical for February and March remains to be seen. We should know where this one is headed within the next 3 weeks. I think it’s going to take a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup (i.e. 2018), like you think might happen, to break from the evolution we have been following and not flip come February and March. As of right now, I don’t see another way to avoid the classic Niña winter footprint we are following other than that (stratosphere)…..

And should be our ceiling, not our floor

Been trying to say this for a long while. That’s all you need to see(bombs everywhere else ) to know that idea(Hadley cell and fast flow) is complete BS. It’s just random bad ju ju…and that’s it. At some point it will change, like it did for us through the 2000’s and 2010’s, when pretty much 90% of all SW’s came together for us no matter what.