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The Washington Post has a feature story concerning prediction markets. Far from this form of betting providing insight into the future, the Post's article suggests manipulation through massive numbers of automated transactions of 1 million or more transactions (roughly one every 3 seconds). If so, the prediction value is limited, as perceptions are created to back a given narrative disconnected from actual probabilities (an issue that is much less present in large, deep markets where handfuls of accounts lack the capacity to manipulate prices in most cases). As transactions in any buying-selling decision influence prices, these automated trades almost certainly have a price impact and, in the process, give their users a qualitative advantage by creating a skewed perception about the future. Not mentioned, but also a consideration, is the possession and use of inside information. Examples where such information might have been involved range from large trades shortly before President made tariff-related announcements e.g., postponing their implementation, and the recent military operation to remove President Maduro from Venezuela (one special forces soldier involved in the operation had placed large bets). One image from the piece: The full story can be found here: https://wapo.st/49o6Jxc

Wow! Radar looks surprisingly good for PG, AA, DC, and southern MD.

Hopefully, the developing El Niño can ease these historic drought conditions across the CONUS.

Frosty morning with 32F min.

Over the weekend down here, one of the popular pick-your-own places in the area- Linvilla Orchards in Media, Delaware County, had announced that they lost 90% of their apple crop and somewhere around 60% - 90% of their peach crop after that last freeze. I know those 2 are probably their biggest fruit products in terms of tree planting, popularity, and sales... although they also have plums, nectarines, cherries, pluots and apricots (that IIRC tend to bloom earlier), plus they have the bush fruits like blueberries and raspberries and viners like strawberries. Still , that was a huge loss for them and illustrates how farmers have to deal with fickle weather. I finished up April with 2.68" of rain and over the past week since May 6, I've had 0.95", the latest with 3 rounds yesterday of 0.28", 0.21", and 0.01" just before midnight, with another 0.01" today just after midnight. I was able to get under a couple of tiny convective cells yesterday that triggered my lightning detector, but didn't produce any audible thunder. Still, it was my first convection of the year! Got up to 78 yesterday after a 48 low and am currently at an overcast 50 with dp 38.

This event was recently added to the NESIS list as a cat 2 w/snowfall map. Pretty sure they added in when they did Jan 2026, last i checked the most recent was Dec 2022.

Nice work!

I wouldn't mind a whole summer with the dewpoint never topping 60.

Getting lucky i guess... Light rain here at work

Starting this weekend, we turn a corner & highs in the 70s and 80s will be the norm for the rest of May. local21news.com/weather

.05"

WB 6Z NBM for Wed.

WB 6Z NBM for today.

Been storm central last 2 days down here - Trees snapped right off at the 16 foot level, water stream monitoring steel shacks simply blown away by Onion Creek Bridge in Buda last night, huge tree branches snapped off, sheared off along Main Street, Rt 967, a construction fence blown down and twisted up like a demented pretzel. That was last night. Tonight even more 60-70 mph gusts shook our entire house so bad, I am sure more trees are down all over Buda and Kyle. There are going to be far more severe weather hijinks over North America in the next months due to that Greenland machine getting turned down. It's been controlling weather over North America for thousands of years. Hurricane chasers will be permanently out of luck. You Washingtonians who have constituted the Legacy control over the past 300-400 years - Go ahead and ask yourself how on Earth does Jebman know all this? I've had insider knowledge for the past 30 years. Now it's time. Thats one reason I'm 1350 miles away from DC now, until the legacy nonsense is stopped COLD. All my "weird behavior at Giant Food, KFC, getting kicked out of public schooling in 1981" in Prince William County - all that was a put on. Oh it really happened, I "went to counseling for 22 years lol', You know something, I was in counseling for hitting lebs at KFC, but dang, they let me hit lebs in the building. It's all true and on record. Now, The Times, They Are A-Changin'! And the Legacy controllers KNOW IT. Ten years from now America will not be recognizable. Earth won't be either. POST SCARCITY is coming to Earth. Everything we have been taught is nonsense. I'll be all over the ski resorts digging snow and watching every storm, walking around again with a ruler in one hand and a thermometer in the other hand getting my personal snow fix. I'll be 21 again. I'll be around at least into the 2110's. I will not be in N VA. Not enough snow and not cold enough. Everyone will be perfectly free to create and do whatever they want. "Working to pay bills" will be optional lol. Better get used to thinking this way folks. It's coming like a tsunami and super fast.

4.00 in. hail report with that HP supercell just east of Hamilton. That storm had an awesome, turquoise color, solid hail core shaft.

Kind of strange, because when you look at the monthly precip so far, DEN has 0.78 and Centennial 1.00 inches, considerably less than this analysis.

This summer seems different Not as bad as long . June probably does not get hot and I think wet and below av temps. July gets hot but August around average.

Congrats!

Active Mothers Day across N-CTX. Lots of svr thunder warnings issued this afternoon & evening. Along with lots of svr hail, and a decent amount of wind damage reports also. Definitely lots of wind with the ongoing storms right now in CTX. Looking and hearing all the wind on the Lakeway Earthcam (near Austin), a short while ago. https://www.earthcam.com/usa/texas/lakeway/

Its getting comical at this point

High of 84, dew point soared into the low 70's today which made it feel uncomfortable.

SPC made an oopsie last night on the 01Z outlook First ever 0% CIG1 lol

This is such a hilarious point-and-click forecast: A 70% chance of rain! [emoji16] Between 2-3 PM. [emoji2955] Less than a tenth of an inch. [emoji95]

.08; missed the good stuff by a couple miles to the north.