All Activity

Agreed!

We now have enough mesonet stations online that terrain features are becoming visible. Tonight's low temperature map should be interesting to witness.

Those numbers for your area are reasonable

Gorgeous!! It’s so nice to have fall in the air

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 Satellite images, aircraft observations, and ASCAT data indicate that Jerry is a poorly organized and strongly sheared tropical storm. The low-level center is now fully exposed and elongated, with the main area of deep convection located on the system's south and southeast sides. The initial intensity is again held at 55 kt, but that could be a little generous. The center of Jerry is less than 100 miles from the northern Leeward Islands, which is often close enough to experience strong winds. However, the ASCAT and aircraft data showed that the strongest winds are confined to a region east of the center. In fact, winds are quite light on the west side. Jerry has been moving erratically today, but smoothing through the fixes suggest that the storm is gradually turning to the right. The initial motion is now estimated to be 300/16 kt. This general motion should continue through early Friday, taking the center of the system near or over the northern Leeward Islands during that time. However, as mentioned above, the strongest winds should pass to the east of the islands due to Jerry's asymmetric structure. A turn to the north is expected to occur by late tomorrow, and that motion should continue through most of the weekend as the storm moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant impacts appear unlikely there. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Strengthening in the short term seems unlikely given Jerry's poor initial structure. However, after the storm passes the northern Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear could decrease some while Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass. Therefore, slow strengthening is predicted from late Friday through Sunday. The opportunity for strengthening will likely end early next week when the system moves into stronger shear and over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward due to a combination of the storm's poor initial structure and latest guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.3N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 21.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 63.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 26.5N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 30.7N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 32.3N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 32.2N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Spent most of the day in the 50s, only just got to 61 an hour ago

Hi it a high of 66 very briefly here, but mainly 64 or lower the entire day. It was beyond nice out for my 4+ mile walk earlier. A perfect mid-fall type day. Currently 64/43

Lots of 30s at least. Hope MBY makes it

Breeze has really died off here, that would help for sure

Bittinger dipped to 29 degrees last night. I wonder if we see more sub freezing temperatures tonight? There doesn't seem to be much wind, so we might decouple quick.

I’m working a table at Hampstead's Fall Fest Saturday, hoping any rain that does come in, happens after 4pm

Following up on your post: I took a look at SST anomaly at 12z/9 this morning. VERY warm departures and water temps right now SDHook, Entrance to NY Harbor around 68. I think we're talking fairly steep lapse rates in the BL Sunday-Monday permitting pretty decent downward transfer of gusts. Two graphics attached. Surface temps should be in the range of 57-63F on the NJ coast and probably LI north shore as well 18z Sun-18z Mon. That is cooler than the SST. Using 12z EC OP model sounding - I see what appears to me a fairly unstable lowest 50 MB. That is only the 12z/9 EC OP. (did not attach the sounding-its predictive and still 72-96 hours distant). We'll see how intense the wind fields evolve etc but needs to be monitored for watch/warn process and resultant water and power outage situation on the coasts. No coastal hugger, much less impact.

My high was 48.9°. It's been breezy at times too. A real fall feel day.

Fair enough, the urban legend continues to grow for the Euro of old, ha. I was just thinking even if the Euro is consistent now, we still don’t trust it like we used to against the others. It’s too bad.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ANZ335&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=&local_place1=11NM SE Stamford CT&product1=Storm+Watch&lat=40.977&lon=-73.372 storm watch for the sound, waves 6-9 feet into the western sound. You don’t see that very often.

So close to sub 40 up here. Probably get down to upper 30s overnight

I'm a Braves fan. We had an awful year.

I agree

That's DIT for ya. Last week he was saying how dry it's going to be for weeks and weeks and weeks through the end of November. Now he's talking about some apocalyptic storm. Poor guy

I remember my grandmother saying it snowed in July a long time ago. I remember her saying the field corn was about knee high. She was born in 1901 and passed away in 1975. And my mother was born in 1923. Hard to believe it snowed in July, but anything is possible.

It’s a tough forecast for your area still. Most confident parts are cloudy, cool, and breezy. Rain is possible anytime between Saturday afternoon (showers at most) to Monday (potentially steady moderate rain). Rain amounts are still a hard call for areas west of the Bay and DC especially.

Yes! Did have some rime icing up high this morning.

outside of January, I could see this a big rainer with maybe elevation snows

Still MUCH time for adjustments. The ensembles are all damped out out with variable solutions so believing an op cycle straightforward is not recommended. The EC OP is in the high end impact group with almost an eye circulation off Cape May come late Monday but for now, in the back of my mind but not barking it as the more likely solution. Someone mentioned the deformation zone as a potential area of concern for surprise high amounts. I am in agreement. Therefore am thinking along and north of the eventual 8H-7H circulation will be large, which eventually favors much of our area, especially NNJ-LI and not a big trim in s CT. Evolution uncertainty. Not upgrading to spot 6" amount in NNJ (Ocean County northwestward) but monitoring circulation development and staying as initially posted last several days and in this thread last evening. LONG ways away. Added 12z/9 NYHOPS tidal expectation at Sandy Hook as an example. The outlier is MAJOR. the more likely scenario at this 3-4 day juncture is MDT for at least one cycle at Sandy Hook, as exampled. Recent water level bias has been a couple inches one the low side of reality, from what I can tell. Checking back later this evening or tomorrow morning.

The myth about wind underperforming really only applies away from the island/coast. We’ve had many wind events verify out here, while inland it is tame. Sure, some events bust, but I’m fully expecting 45 mph gusts at my house and gusts to 50-55 at the beaches