All Activity

Music to my eyes, ears and weenie.

Ugh. Flashbacks to Harvey, albeit a much more compact system this time

Hard not to think that this cluster will persist south of the M-D line, although instability isn't what it could have been, given that the eastern half of the area has easterly winds behind that weak backdoor front.

PDS flood emergency out there. 2ft+ radar estimates and counting. I’d just like 5% of that please.

That inflow really ramped up as it rapidly strengthened. I’m not a tor weenie, but it almost seemed like there was a microscale pressure tendency response to the rapidly lowering pressure…like a QG isallobaric component on a synoptic scale.

Proceed with EXTREME caution using the Cansips

The issue is going to be that MCS in central PA, that's going to completely work over the atmosphere. The clouds should burn off by late morning, but that complex will arrive sometime between 1 and 2 on its current trajectory. Maybe a couple severe warnings but that's going to limit the severe for everyone. Even SPC isn't sure though as the best forcing doesn't arrive until way later. This day was always going to be about how the next MCS forms out west.

No 90s for Philly today. Tomorrow, different story. .

Edouard isn't moving away from the juiced environment fast enough, and unfortunately, the mesoscales are showing deep intense training cells over the same locations this afternoon and evening. Some of these feeders may back'build towards the GOM. Flooding is going to become a big problem.

The pattern foot with the -CGT summer synoptic has plagued now for 6 weeks .. and is striking hard locally. It's ultimately causing the deep flow to sag over SE Canada --> confluence, which in turn generates a stalled albeit weak ( but still stronger enough than the sub trop high, S) high pressure in the perfect location to bang us like a upstate NY rape shack. It's stealing what remains of our geriatric dying summer with this achronological BD stagnation shit we have going on - wedging in other words. It was 88/79 at several sites I observed around the S Great Lakes yesterday afternoon, a latitude that is essentially the same as Worcester Ma. And as that annotation above demos, this is not autumn - straw man argument - this is a location's bad luck with respect to the how the gears of the hemisphere put us in this resulting cool local anomaly. The models are attempting to break this down and introduce some late gasping attempt at heat, ...when the sun is gone ... ...but they've also been doing this beyond D5's for few days now and we keep correcting troughs as digging through eastern ONT/QUE - so long as the latter happens, this will go on to being the earliest end of summer in decades perhaps... a qualification buried by the sensible appeal of still being sort of mild or even warm from time to time since late July.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for Central and Southern PA until 2pm

I don't think the issue will be the mountains. Issue will be the atmosphere, its completely zapped from yesterday storms and with cloud cover its not going to get any better.

Barnegat/LBI

Yeah, nice little mesoscale system .

the low clouds marine layer once those storms over western PA encounter it they will not make it this far east

Could be interesting if this blob coming down survives the mountains. Couple tornado warned cells in there.

Meanwhile 90s from Philly SW and heat index over 100. Rather this than swamp filth.

Could be an interesting lunchtime should this blob of whatever coming of Lake Eire survives the mountains. Couple of tornado warned cells mixed in it.

Where is this drizzle coming from..sigh

@Stormchaserchuck1

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/histdata/ Its kind of a pain vs the others but at least it is still operational.

Tropical Storm Edouard has been spinning around in SE Texas since yesterday afternoon. Some radar rainfall estimate pixels approaching 16-18" now. The center has been drifting NNE for the past several hours. If it continues to head more north/east than the models were showing, I may end up getting some rain later today in Longview. Tyler has a better chance though. NWS SHV has mentioned the possibility of tornadoes but it's a pretty low chance, especially since we haven't really seen any signs of that yet.

A nocturnal training event would be great!