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While we are still only getting a snapshot for the start of October, a +EPO is classic La Niña for October. So we’ll need to see how the pattern evolves past the start of the month. It will be interesting to see what the complete monthly pattern looks like.

Looks like Hawaii will get hit AGAIN. Rainfall forecast of 15-30"+ across the Big Island...yikes

September 23 1995: 0.2 inches of snow falls in the St. Cloud area. 1985: Early snow falls over portions of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Just under a half inch (0.4) is recorded at MSP Airport, mostly during the afternoon. 1937: From summer to winter. The temperature was 101 at Wheaton. Then a cold front came through causing the mercury to tumble below freezing. For Wednesday, September 23, 2026 1815 - One of the greatest hurricanes to strike New England made landfall at Long Island and crossed Massachusetts and New Hampshire. It was the worst tempest in nearly two hundred years, equal to the hurricane which struck in 1938, and one of a series of severe summer and autumn storms to affect shipping lanes that year. (David Ludlum) 1904 - The temperature at Charlotteburg, NJ, dipped to 23 degrees, the coldest reading of record for so early in the autumn for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1983 - A thunderstorm downburst caused a timber blowdown in the Kaibab National Forest north of the Grand Canyon. Two hundred acres were completely destroyed, and scattered destruction occurred across another 3300 acres. Many trees were snapped off 15 to 30 feet above ground level. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Autumn began on a rather pleasant note for much of the nation. Showers and thunderstorms were confined to Florida and the southwestern deserts. Warm weather continued in the western U.S., and began to spread into the Great Plains Region, but even in the southwestern deserts readings remained below 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front in the south central U.S. produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail near Noble and Enterprise, and baseball size hail at Lequire and Kinta. A tornado near Noble OK destroyed a mobile home injuring one person. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Seventeen cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Devils Lake ND with a reading of 22 degrees. Jackson KY reported a record low of 41 degrees during the late afternoon. Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold air into the central and northeastern U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Indianapolis IND. Winds along the cold front gusted to 65 mph at Norfolk VA, and thunderstorms along the cold front deluged Roseland NJ with 2.25 inches of rain in one hour. The temperature at Richmond VA plunged from 84 degrees to 54 degrees in two hours. Snow and sleet was reported at Binghamton NY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2005 - Hurricane Rita reached the Texas/Louisiana border area near Sabine Pass as a category-3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. A storm surge of at least 15 feet flooded parts of Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes, where sugar cane crop losses were estimated near $300 million. An 8-foot storm surge in New Orleans overtopped the provisionally-repaired levees (from Hurricane Katrina damage) and caused additional flooding. A total of 10 fatalities were reported, and preliminary damage estimates ranged between $4-5 billion. Observances: 23 Wed National Dogs in Politics Day 23 Wed Celebrate Bisexuality Day ( Bi Visibility Day) 23 Wed International Day of Sign Languages 23 Wed Education Technology Day 23 Wed National AFM Day 23 Wed National Checkers Day 23 Wed National Field Marketer’s Day 23 Wed National Great American Pot Pie Day 23 Wed National Snack Stick Day 23 Wed Restless Legs Awareness Day 23 Wed Seed Gathering Season 23 Wed Teal Talk Day 23 Wed Za’atar Day 23 Wed Go With Your Gut Day 23 Wed National Apple Cider Vinegar Day 23 Wed National Baker Day

Crazy given how close we are! I went back and looped the radar. It looks like a lot of it anchored in Caldwell county from 2-6 am

1.66” which almost 1” came down from 5:30-7:30 this morning. .

Huh?

Shocked to find 2.7 rain total. It had hardly rained last I checked about 11pm. So almost all of this total since midnight.

From one of the earliest, strongest PV formations to now currently forecasted to weaken, as the AO goes from positive to negative.

Appears as if Fay has come back from the dead

The very rough 2026 for Hawaii looks to get even rougher later this week! TD 15E had formed in the E PAC back on Sep 13th from an AEW that had moved off of Africa way back on Aug 27th. This was actually the very next wave after the one that produced Dolly in the Atlantic! This then degenerated in the E PAC into an open wave late on Sep 15th. But one week later (late last night), this reorganized back to TD 15E 405 miles SSE of Hilo, Hawaii, moving WNW. It’s forecasted to become a TS later today and then turn sharply N tonight. It is then forecasted to become a H tomorrow night and reach high end cat 2 H status Fri night while not too far S of the big island of Hawaii meaning a potential serious threat there then: From the NHC discussion: The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level ridge. This ridge is expected to shift eastward and weaken while a mid- to upper-level low dives southwestward near the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. This pattern change should cause the cyclone to slow down and then turn northward or north-northeastward later this week. That motion should take the cyclone near the Big Island of Hawaii late Friday or on Saturday. Around that time, the upper low is expected to weaken and move westward, allowing mid-level ridging to become re-established to the north of the system. In response, the cyclone should turn and then accelerate westward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.0N 153.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 154.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.6N 155.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.0N 155.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 15.9N 155.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 154.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 17.9N 154.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 18.3N 156.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 18.2N 159.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

Currently 62° with low clouds obscuring the mountains here in the Valley. Looks like the CAD is established.

I didn't need a blizzard to feel this way.

Another chilly morning with 30's inland (40's shore). Around 60 again today. Slightly warmer temps with some rain chances coming up for the rest of the week.

That happened this past winter. [Anyone that's a Patriots fan should be glad that the Bills did not beat the Broncos. If the Bills had won, the AFC Championship Game would have been played in that blizzard, and I don't think the Pats beat the Bills in those conditions. If anyone is equipped to play in those conditions, it's Josh Allen.]

The NAM very well may go out on a very sad demise

The NAM model is a mess.

What happens in September…the atmosphere will remember…..

yeah, pretty Meh

It's significance is being masked some by CC. We have to consider this in a relativistic sense - Earth as we type and read is putting up the 2nd warmest it has ever been since humanity developed any awareness of the subject matter - a.k.a. hundreds of years. But this is also probably true in climate recreation/reanalysis going back much farther... It is a reasonable assumption that relative to that state of affairs, we have to be quite cold in fact to even get a negative anomaly day at all. It's both anecdotal, as well as objectively clear just by record and empirical data, that it is easier to be above normal, if only by decimals, than it is to be below by that same margin. ...etc Just a personal observation ... current hourly observations have 62 to 65 F over eastern Mass/coastal sites. From near I-495 and points went, we're 57-ish. We are actually getting an inverse thermal conditioning penetrating from the ocean. It's not that unusual to do so in general? During the cold months/winter, when there is a coastal cyclone with flow coming from the NE/E, this often takes place. However, doing it under fair where not full sun, in September, during this latter leg of CC no less... very relative. Particularly when/while the rest of the planet is so warm, ... it may even argue that we are, in the relative sense, one of the coldest locations there is per latitude at this moment. When it is long proven harder to actually get a negative day at all.

Getting there…seeing less and less N Pac -ENSO flavored ridging out there. Does seem it’s possible we might go straight from cool ENSO pattern to full blown super Nino style (cool season) jet extension at some point between now and mid November.

I agree with this. A lot of emphasis in this thread about the -PDO but I think the Arctic had much to do with it. In any sense it likely enhanced the -PDO over the summer.

If the difference is mostly on clear nights with calm winds, then it could just be variations in radiational cooling. Even a very light wind can make a difference between a spot that has completely calm winds. Plus there could be some differences related to varying altitudes. Data for September 1, 2026 through September 23, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 53.9 NJ HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 54.7 NJ BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 56.5 NJ SCHOOLEY'S MOUNTAIN 1 SW COOP 56.5 NJ SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 56.8 PA MARTINS CREEK COOP 57.2 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 57.7 PA LEHIGHTON 1SSW COOP 57.9 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 58.3 PA BLUE MARSH LAKE COOP 58.4 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 58.4 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 58.8 PA ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 59.6 NJ PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 59.7 NJ BOONTON 1 SE COOP 59.7 PA SELLERSVILLE COOP 59.8 NJ AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 59.8 Climatological Data for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - September 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1576 1186 - - 78 33 3.19 Average 71.6 53.9 62.8 2.3 - - - Normal 70.0 50.9 60.5 - 121 21 4.03 2026-09-01 82 65 73.5 10.0 0 9 0.10 2026-09-02 69 62 65.5 2.3 0 1 0.41 2026-09-03 81 62 71.5 8.5 0 7 0.37 2026-09-04 76 63 69.5 6.7 0 5 0.00 2026-09-05 73 57 65.0 2.5 0 0 0.00 2026-09-06 72 52 62.0 -0.2 3 0 0.00 2026-09-07 72 48 60.0 -2.0 5 0 0.00 2026-09-08 74 47 60.5 -1.2 4 0 0.00 2026-09-09 75 53 64.0 2.6 1 0 0.01 2026-09-10 78 62 70.0 8.9 0 5 0.23 2026-09-11 71 50 60.5 -0.3 4 0 0.00 2026-09-12 72 46 59.0 -1.4 6 0 T 2026-09-13 76 62 69.0 8.9 0 4 0.44 2026-09-14 65 44 54.5 -5.3 10 0 0.00 2026-09-15 67 39 53.0 -6.4 12 0 0.00 2026-09-16 77 51 64.0 4.9 1 0 0.00 2026-09-17 71 63 67.0 8.3 0 2 0.66 2026-09-18 74 54 64.0 5.6 1 0 0.00 2026-09-19 63 53 58.0 0.0 7 0 0.05 2026-09-20 64 55 59.5 1.8 5 0 0.76 2026-09-21 64 50 57.0 -0.3 8 0 0.14 2026-09-22 60 48 54.0 -2.9 11 0 0.02 2026-09-23 M M M M M M M 2026-09-24 M M M M M M M 2026-09-25 M M M M M M M 2026-09-26 M M M M M M M 2026-09-27 M M M M M M M 2026-09-28 M M M M M M M 2026-09-29 M M M M M M M 2026-09-30 M M M M M M M

I mean here is the 6z eps and gefs at hour 90 for both they both look, to my eyes heavier on the western side of things track wise. One of these models is going be more right just who is still unknown. It's 00z Sunday but still just an example

This has and will likely always be a eastern Nassau County all of Suffolk County storm rain wise, with region wide erosion and coastal flooding with some wind for everyone else.