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This is just like the old times when we get a deluge following record heat. The current heavy rain flash flood potential looks like it could be the most significant event here since the last one in August 2024 and July 2023. Widespread 2-4” and localized pockets over 5”+ where the best training set up. This is also the most juiced that we have seen the SPC HREF since then. This will be the first chance NYC and some other spots see a wetter than average month since way back in May 2025. The heat over the next 10 days will shift to the West with the potential for over a 600 dm ridge. In the past when we have had 103°+ major heatwaves and heavy rains, the maximum temperatures remained the highest of the summer. So hopefully this will turn out to be the highest temperatures which reached 105°-106°of the entire summer. While this doesn’t rule out more 95° to around 100° heat, the patterns haven’t been able to follow up with as much heat in the past following extreme heat to very wet.

Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 317 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 PAZ019-026>028-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-052315- /O.NEW.KCTP.FA.A.0004.260705T1800Z-260707T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland- Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Lock Haven, Chambersburg, Shamokin, Sunbury, Harrisburg, Hershey, Mifflintown, Huntingdon, Bloomsburg, Pottsville, Carlisle, York, Lancaster, Berwick, Mount Union, Williamsport, State College, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Lewistown, Lebanon, Danville, Newport, and Gettysburg 317 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Union and York. * WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of slow moving thunderstorms are expected with torrential downpours and intense rain rates over 2 inches per hour possible. Localized rainfall totals could exceed 5 inches. While there remains some uncertainty to exactly where the greatest rainfall will occur, the setup favors some locally significant flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Steinbugl/Bauco

What happened to the njweather.org site

Yeah, looks like that was indeed legit!

Models have been pretty consistent. Jackpot Southern Connecticut but substantial rain almost to the pike. Looks like more than a half an inch.

I guess I should apologize for my rant last night. A lot of you had damage and I'm sure some are still without power this morning. That sucks. I guess I just love good, solid storms, and for some reason Tamaqua is protected from getting them, so it's frustrating to miss out on so many highly anticipated storm outbreaks.

Nice. Hopefully theses rains pan out this far east.

Ask CoastalWx about such an experience when he lived in Dorchester!

1.04 garden says TY

Some light rains here last night. Maybe .1” Windows and screen door wide open now. Beautiful AM compared to the last 5.

ICON EPS is pretty nuts though.. but it is the ICON Eps lol over 6 is very impressive for a mean..

Missed the T Storms to my south, just rain but at 10pm had a CG out of nowhere that thought for sure hit the house; the dog and I both almost fell off the couch!!

Not be a "dampener" on the event... Two things should mitigate the extent/severity of the flooding: 1) Antecedent conditions are very dry and water levels in lakes, rivers, and streams are low. This is huge factor in this case. How wet or dry antecedent conditions are in a region when big rains occur can make the difference between modest flooding and record flooding! So in this case, we have a plus. 2) The event will be drawn out over 48 hr. 6" of rain in 6 hr is *not* the same as 6" in 48 hr, as one example, at least when it comes to flash flooding. For large-scale river flooding, this often is a problem, but from item 1 above, rivers are starting low so there is considerable buffer before sig flood stage. Not that there will not be any flooding, but the point here is that not all big events are created equal in terms of potential impact. Some may go, "8" of rain coming???!!! OMG, that means massive flooding!!!" Not necessarily. This is why I emphasize context and perspective so much. W/ wx events, and many other things for the matter, it is *not* "one-size-fits-all!" The ppl out there who know their stuff and how to handle/present data/info will adhere to this essential guideline. As I have mentioned before, communication of risk/threats, not forecast model skill, are the biggest challenge we face these days when it comes to wx events.

I have Monday and Tuesday off.. if its bad enough I might have to take a drive to check it out

You can really see the blossoming of the R+ by 48 hr on the 06z HRRR. This corresponds w/ a sig ramp up of S and SE winds 925-700 mb (40-45 kt) and a nose of 2"+ PWATs. WCB/WAA wing in summer?, CoastalWx? (don't say MEH!).

EURO also with a big flood threat.. someone will get crushed

Last evening, a PDS SVR was issued for Block Island. However, the warning stated 60 mph gusts. That is not PDS level (74 mph I believe is). Any insights?

RW++ w/ no thunder observed? Let us know! The HRRR ydy suggested stuff would linger/redevelop after midnight today, but it was right along the S Coast. It's more N, and look in CT and far SW MA. You have these li'l cells developing, moving SE, while high level anvil pcpn areas are moving E! "Pseudo-PRE" event for CT last 12 hr for the big rains coming??

O.NEW.KBOX.FA.A.0002.260706T0600Z-260707T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT- Including the cities of Windsor Locks, Vernon, Hartford, Willimantic, Union, and Putnam 224 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Northern Connecticut. * WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon.

Crushed

I'd like massive drone displays then about ten million dollars' worth of fireworks. I NEVER, EVER GET ENOUGH FIREWORKS. I'd forego a 20 foot Sierra Blizzard for a week of intense fireworks.

I watched them online. Now I get to watch the fireworks over and over and over again. I'll be pretty exhausted in a few more hours......

@Jns2183 1:43AM I'm driving through Camp Hill right now checking out all the damage throughout your town. This is locally historic, without a doubt. There's at least 6 trees down on my property. I'm going to take a walk in the woods tonight and assess. Heading out the Carlisle pike, next then driving back through Mechanicsburg, and checking out some of the areas where where I posted some of my first pictures from today.

Thank god this heatwave is over. This was incredibly intolerable.