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Eric Webb @webberweather 54m One key to this winter having a chance to break the -ENSO stereotype of a warm Feb in the E US is to nudge the IPWP eastward enough to focus convection just west of the Dateline in the Eq. Pacific Tropical Pacific OLR & Precip differences for cold vs warm -ENSO Febs in theE US:

Light snow here too. I’ll try to stay very safe.

But it usually didn’t do that back in the day for the most part…that’s the point. That’s all.

Yes .. right up to go time

Barely a cave kind of held its own

You're right, but the precipitation field of the snow is much better for our area in interior Connecticut

Pretty much, I don't see how it couldn't at this point.

I like to thank my grill cover for measuring today

Cue the “it’s not what it used to be posts!!!” when all it is doing is meeting GFS in middle like we’ve been talking about

Caving but slowly

I like this possibility. Mike Thomas @MikeTFox5 1h It's early! But definitely intrigued by next weekend. Compared to say, Tuesday, it is looking like a little better chance for the DC area. It's not perfect but again, it is a week out it doesn't need to be yet. Pattern wise definitely like that both -NAO and a 50/50 low are showing up in a lot of the modeling. Again, not perfect...the west could be a lot better and NAO could be more west based...but these are both features we are lacking with Tuesday so them showing up is a good start. Also of note is the Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI. One of my college professors loved the teleconnection that a sharp SOI dive was well correlated with East Coast storms. Well the SOI is forecast to take it's sharpest dive in at least 4 months around next weekend. So something interesting to keep an eye on!

What does your colleague Dick Tolleris say today ?

Remind me… Messenger shuffle was SE right?

12z Euro significant shift NW. Waiting on the EPS

Somewhere around 11” here. An over-performing big dog. More photos to come once I get out there to clean up the driveway.

Natural Gas Futures are up near $5, making one heck of a run since August! I've been watching to see if it goes up, record low 500mb in the N. Hemisphere in August, low 500mb at different times in the Summer and Fall - all that is pretty strong in preceding a cold Winter. Since 2012, negative SLP 60-90N in the warm season correlates to Winter -AO at a high rate. I didn't trade the Futures, but I should have - they are trending toward the colder Winter idea (although $5.00 is about the middle mark - >$5 -NAO, <$5 +NAO)

It likes next weekend.

12z Euro caving a bit this run.

just ignore the emojis lol..

My weenie take is that I don’t think the EURO AI can handle tight details like p-type. Would also be why the ens have a snowy bias.

12z Euro is awful for DC, with a big NW shift. might be a cave

He sounds like all of us were in the 80’s…that’s so funny. He’s a snow weenie for sure.

Yea, if you out out crap products to start. I don't expect big changes to my Friday map.

With this much precip

Snowing in leominster fat flakes.. looks like.a snow globe