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The first snowfall appears to be the night of Dec 4th into the 5th. Everything honing in on that time period

The ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) want to retrograde the Alaskan ridge (-EPO) to an Aleutian ridge (-WPO) by the beginning of the 2nd week of December. So you end up with a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA setup. It’s been a consistent theme for several cycles now

The one thing that kind of concerns me, though is some signs of zonal flow across the US Canada border. I worry that bottles some of the cold up in Canada versus spilling in here more frequently. But we’ll see, just something I’ve kind of noticed.

I've been on a the second week of December train, as well, but I won't be stunned to see a few inches that first week. Agree on the se ridge...the pattern is flawed, but we aren't looking for a blizzard, here.....it doesn't take perfection to snow at this latitude in December.

I was skiing at Belleayre on Friday and they are off to their best start in years. likewise, many resorts in the northeast. I was in Park city last week. They are off to a horrendous start . no snow at all and not open. that is what the Wasatch range looks like right now. Direct shot of Park City Mountain

The 0z GEFS was showing on of the more uncommon December teleconnection combinations near the end of its forecast period.

I've been there, man....wonderful thing about the weather is it's always there waiting in the other side.

The first week of December is warming on guidance. MJO, teleconnections forecasts are all moving to warm phases. I don’t get the excitement at all. MJO phase 7 in November is actually N to cold but we are moving into December as we settle into that phase. I think this is leading to some false cold signals on guidance. Of course I’m speaking wrt where most of us live—close to the coast. The modeling showing more ridging in the SE and cold dumping over the central CONUS is much more in line with the tapestry of MJO phase 7 in December.

Been preaching since last summer that se Canada will be cold this season, ignore the rest. All you need to know unless focused on a KU. There hasn't been a shred of doubt in my mind RE a cold se Canada.

The return of the blob? Btw, thanks for posting the model forecast change loops. If you look to the left at the north pacific, notice the lines tightening meaning the models underestimate the pac jet and it gets stronger as it gets closer in time. That nudges north pac ridging to the north and east into the EPO domain, which means more cold for midwest and possibly the east. The SST change map also seems to reflect this tendency.

Get ready for something akin to December 2007 or 2008. It's going to be good month for most of us, just without the dumb SSW crack that social media was dealing.

Coldest week so far in this La Niña event in regions 3.4 and 4…

Cruel overnight runs sounds like.

Same goes with every model in the long range. These models aren't stable at all.

First week of December on eps

Caught it the last mile of my run. I’ve seen a lot over the years. Was a solid one

And its gone on the models

Of course thicker clouds ruin it when i drive to find a good spot

Is that you?

Indeed NWS TSA is jumping on board.

15 day change

I haven't started my WxBell or other subscriptions yet, but would be interested to see some of the individual members on GEFS and EPS for Dec 1 -3. Edit:

Decent overnight runs with a front swinging through and a weak low forming around Dec 1-2. Room for a NW trend at this range.

Yeah, beautiful start