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This is for Nolo, which is a threat to the Big Island of Hawaii: 000 WTPA42 PHFO 241450 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 16 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026 Satellite images indicate that Nolo is gradually becoming better organized, with very deep convection in a curved band on the southern and western side of the circulation. Additionally, a GPM pass from overnight indicated that an inner core is forming, although the eastern side is fragmented. Intensity estimates are rising, and the current wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of the lower subjective and higher objective values. Nolo has not moved much during the last several hours but should begin to move northward and north-northeastward later today due to a mid-latitude trough dropping over the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The trough is forecast to move westward by Saturday with a building ridge north of the main Hawaiian Islands, causing a sharp westward turn this weekend. The big question is how close does Nolo get before making that turn, with notable run-to-run inconsistencies in much of the guidance. Similar to the last cycle, the bulk of the models have shifted slightly northward, and the new NHC forecast is moved in that direction. This remains a more uncertain forecast than normal given the large unresolved north-south spread, with other possible complicating terrain influences of the Big Island (like we saw with Hurricane Lala last month). Therefore, the long-range portion of the forecast is essentially unchanged. With the formation of an inner core, conditions appear to be coming together for rapid intensification given the other conducive environmental factors of warm SSTs, low shear and high mid-level moisture. Nolo is likely to become a hurricane by tonight and reach major hurricane strength as it nears the Big Island on Saturday. The new forecast is raised from the previous one, just below the HCCA aid, which has done well this year in these strengthening episodes. Note that a track closer to the Big Island could substantially increase the threat of damaging winds, particularly over higher terrain, along exposed ridges, and in areas downwind of the ridges. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.9N 156.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.2N 156.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 16.1N 155.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 17.1N 155.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.8N 155.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 18.0N 156.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 18.1N 158.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 19.0N 162.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 21.6N 164.4W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

I do believe this is going to be a major problem for the coast. However most of us are Philly, or points north and west and our impacts as of this post should be slight. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

Thanks, Surgery was July 8th Scott, Its 4-6mos recovery, Rehabbing it hard in OT, Its much better then where it was but not there yet.

Jesus hope you heal up Jeff.

Only good thing with this scenario as shown is it keeps the wind trajectory more NNE to N and that would keep water from piling onto the coast. Still questions on how this all eventually plays out. Complex evolution for sure.

yikes.. hope you heal quickly

WB 12Z 12K NAM at range... glad it's not winter...

Looks like Fay will be the biggest ACE producer this year behind Bertha. Will also have the most Named Storm Days behind Bertha. We continue to nickel and dime our way to 10 ACE points. Currently sitting at 6.7.

OUCH! I hope that feels better than it looks. Praying that it fixes your ailment. Personally, been there, after a dozen stints, arteries moved around and replaced, then triple bypass. and it gets better... old age sucks. Hoping this nor'easter is a forbearer of an active Fall and Winter Quite anomalous getting dews to drop below 70 before Nov. I'll take it.

ICON still looks rainy here.. looks like almost 10" OF RAIN in Boston if my eyes are working!

ICON fwiw, is a good hit.

I think the mostly offshore, low to no impact solutions are off the table now. The storm is already forming.

heavy rains of 4-8 inches east LI and CT

That's So Nina

Haha. Trying to get my "replies" up. The worst of all this will be beach eroision. Inland breezy with some rain.

3k Nam says Nyet to most.

Can’t wait to see the 3k NAM thrown out all over twitter by a bunch of bots. So dumb.

The 12z RGEM is an intense storm too but because of where it stalls, the winds would be northerly, and then offshore, saving the NJ coast from the worst flooding.

You are as bad as everyone on twitter showing these 925MB maps... Where is the mountains in NJ. LOL

We got to Ocean City in August and they just finished up a beach replenishment project-wonder how much of it they lose this weekend?

Polo is just something else. Jaw dropping satellite imagery this past week. Also seems like Nolo may be become better organized too

Yikes. Hopefully you make a full and speedy recovery.

Also the timing is wildly different. The storm is still intensifying as the run ends. And there’s a ridiculous amount of rain lurking just offshore.

Still terrible for the NJ shore

that's much difference than the 12K NAM which sends it into the DELMARVA