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Seems like a mixture of huge hits and whiffs. I wonder if the huge hits mix though.

Basic physics tells you that you can’t run the upper level low into a 1038-1040mb high. If we didn’t have blocking it would be a completely different story. Heavy snow to a dry slot followed by the potential coastal on Monday is much more likely at this point than significant mixing issues. However, even 96 had some sleet up this way. Can’t rule it out but any guidance holding on to that primary North of say Pittsburg is likely wrong.

0 consistency on that thing. EPS was much more similar for each member.

Euro is definitely a bit late today.

-2F for my low Not easy to get below zero these years

Euro delayed

Our friends in Morristown are always the last to jump on board and usually rightfully so >>>

56.8" where I grew up in NNJ? We had 50" there from Jan 19 thru Feb 4 in 1961, but the above shows 7" more and a week shorter. Can always go up from there.

Ahhh, a voice of reason!

I've noticed the euro has been a bit late the past several days (at least on weathermodels). Even the 12z GFS bufkit was late on pennstate today

This is all sorts of fucked, doesn't make much sense. I would love the GFS operational outcome but it also doesn't really make sense. Mentally throwing out the GFS fam 12z suite.

Maybe I am wrong, but It seems that forecasts were more accurate/nuanced back then. Maybe not, but I wonder if reliance on tech has made people less likely to analyze all the possibilities, maybe even the hesitancy of even considering certain patterns because they are too much in the contrarian camp. The dependency of relying on AI and computer modeling I think causes us to lose aspects of human intuition.

Late ECMWF Data Subscribe Investigating - We currently see no 12z data queued or being disseminated from ECMWF. We will process data as soon as they provide it. Jan 21, 2026 - 12:29 EST

Weather Underground showing all rain event for my area south of ATL. Strange. Temps above 32 until Sunday at midnight.

LOL. I have a feeling there will be more... a lot more.

We all should really wait until 00z tonight when the new data is in. That’s when we should either celebrate or panic

met on southwernwx is saying the euro and euro aifs are delayed...

North Georgia Winter Storm Watch: WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to 4 inches and ice accumulations greater than one quarter inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest Georgia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Persons should consider delaying all travelSaturday and Sunday. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. .

Thrasher, Notice who has been left out of all that!

Banking on something not even to CA coast much less formed and moving probably should not be in a forecast

I agree with Tip would be nice to have an overall synopsis of storm at top of thread.

GEFS vs EPS low locations. Obviously the amped/miller b solution is not good for us but synoptically they’re pretty similar wrt SLP locations for the high pressure. Looks like the high over the dakotas is a bit stronger on the GEFS which allows less room for the LP to ride up the apps. Im no pro but will be really interesting to see how this all plays out. I don’t think it takes much to change outcomes (either way) with this setup. I think we will get a much better handle when all the players are sampled (northern stream vort, high strength, Baja low) so looking forward to this evenings runs.

Yes but Thursday/Friday and Sunday (2/1) are far from consistent on guidance.

So are the euro products and ukmet both delayed today for the 12Z suite?

WB 12Z GEFS has a lot of whiffs