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No idea about the specifics correlation or lag. I just know the correlation is meaningful and positive. I started looking more at the sector seeing the cold snap caused the price of nat gas to move way up but the big producers didn’t follow likewise. I then dug a little deeper and saw evidence in the long term price behavior of the major producers that people are rotating into the sector—building positions. Of the group, CVX chart looked the best to me. I also believe natural gas is in a long term uptrend. The recent cold snap was just adding fuel for a breakout.

26 degrees, vehicle is covered and steady snow.

I think it is just slowing the ULL some, seems like once it closes off a little earlier than previous runs showed it spins SE slower and has also corrected west a little bit. RAP seems to start and hour or two earlier than HRRR in MBY.

Yall will start later tonight.

lol no

Few flakes seen falling in Lancaster, SC.

Good luck. I'm pulling for all of you. Hopefully, the HRRR will be more generous with the Triangle in its 0z run. Its 18z solution seemed unrealistic, but we'll see.

It's true. The DMV is too far north. NC will always get all the snow when we have strong cold air over DC. I might need to write up a morbid story about NC in the Blizzard and thousands of people trying to walk along I95 in waist high, rapidly deepening snow while NE gales scream overhead. Now watch what happens in late April when the Pattern finally changes. DC will get demolished by torrential rain.

Nice to see you down this way

It seems reasonably close to where the 12z ECMWF showed it developing.

Got a nice dusting now, very wind blown snow. If get any appreciable snow I could see there being drifts.

While obviously too light overall, the heaviest portions of this are present, but are displaced to the west by 20-30 miles. If that holds true for the entire event, could be good news for SE TN.

Thank you. The general radar sites look wonky.

One other thing that has been interesting to me looking through the SPC meso page, is this ribbon of deep DGZ around the stretched out vorticity: I think there is a 3000' thick DGZ layer back in Kansas. EDIT: Oh wow, that's not in feet, it's in meters. So that's almost 10000 feet thick

HRRR initialized too dry again. Not sure what the problem is but barely has anything on the radar view while the actual radar has returns over SC, N NC, and the mountains.

Just guessing…I’ve got a little over an inch .

Look forward to these from 2015

There is an initial round of snow working its way through Hamilton County. The orientation is wrong for what I expect the main show to be. It honestly just resembles normal NW flow. I think as the ULL moves in this will re-orient into nearly a due N-S direction. Seeing some ground truth MPING reports in the city now. Nothing IMBY yet, but we should get some light precipitation shortly. 32 here.

2.6 inches on the measurement site and closing in on 4 in the grass with the old stuff. A combination of artificial and moonlight has visibility around three quarters of a mile with the flakes being very fine but numerous. 20F with calm breeze from the NNE. Patiently waiting for reinforcements hoping I'm not too NW yet I can't complain, this is one of the prettiest snows I have seen this decade.

Roxboro has the climate of a town in western Massachusetts. If you sneeze it will snow there. .

This is what the HRRR says is happening right now…. .

Jacksonville here as well, really interested to see what happens here closer to the coast. Curfews already in place here starting tomorrow at 6pm.

Per the 18z 3K NAM…I do think this builds some to the north and west of 81 in TRI….but just not sold this goes to anywhere near Euro levels in that area. What I am getting is just cold air wringing out moisture at the lower levels. I would guess the 3K NAM adjusts sharply downward at 0z for areas west of 81. But I am willing to give it a chance. With storms like these, I have watched this set up too many times to name…often it just never builds back this direction. Holding steady at 1.25” of snow.

Yeah, true, I was doing March because I thought the volume at the end of the month of Jan could be too low.. but you could have got out of it today comfortably. It was about a +100% price increase for Feb contract from Dec 31 to Jan 30. In the future I'll do the closest month to said forecast.