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CFS continues to love the idea of a mid-November coastal bringing us wintry precip.

As Walt Drag noted above, blocking continues so expect some more storms and rains...definitely not like last year's bone dry fall

I didn't really rain too much with the Nor'Easter in the D1 and D2 shades to make a dent.

Didn’t realize NJ was so dry

I'm ready!

Pitchers and catchers report in 119 days

Yall might not get a frost until November. It's happened before.

@Eskimo Joe @wxmeddleryou and the MD Mesonet team made UMD Pres. Pines' "State of the Campus" address today.

This weather is ok but im ready to start seeing some changes towards the end of the month. Only had a low of 44.

A bit over two months until the sun starts setting later. Stuff that in your Halloween bags

I have seen that year mentioned as well. How did that winter look?

Some of us definitely do.

Chilly fall day... sunny. Temp up top of Gondola is up to 34F off a low of 30F. Down here in the base area it's 46F at 1,500ft.

I think that we are both saying the same thing in our own way. The larger pattern since 2018-2019 has been a function of how dominant the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been. But the smaller features in that larger pattern can vary according to location. Unfortunately, the best snowfall axis lined up from ACY to Boston in 21-22. But I would still take another winter month like January 22 even if the best axis of snowfall isn’t right in my area. One benefit of living at your latitude is that you can still get over 40” even if you are 20” below your longer term average.

Why was ‘95-96 such a historic year? I believe it was also a weak Nina and things really got jumping early January.

Probably blocked.

Yes I dread those. And 38 degree CAD drizzle days where its dark at 4

I’m just going to enjoy it for now. 50s and 5pm sunsets will be here soon enough.

They always predict an average to above average hurricane season unless el nino is present. However, they do seem to break out a little more science to try to figure out the land falling part.

I circled the station moves: Coatesville 1946 and 47, Phoenixville 1949 and West Chester 1970. Each move caused roughly 2F cooling. Easy to spot the station changes as the year-to-year temperature change at each move station differed from the other two stations. As I have shown previously, take out the station moves by plotting before and after move data separately and NOAA is a close match to the raw data.

12z EURO past hr 360 would of been fun

Op Euro still has no definitive frost threat through the end of the month other than high mountain areas.

We all need more rain but I'd prefer if we'd dry out from the latest rainfall along the coastal areas. Further inland could definitely use some rain, as they missed out on the Nor'easter.

83!

A warmer enso actually correlates slightly warmer for us, but what makes a warm enso "snowier" is that it gives us multiple ways to "win". We can still get a colder pattern sometimes in warm enso...and then it's a possible 2003, 2010 type thing. Those are the once in a blue moon blockbuster winters. But even in a warmer year we can still "win" if we just time up one of those STJ storms with a rare colder period. 1983 and 2016 for example. And of course we get lots of years somewhere in between...but with an active STJ we just have more chances to get snow, even if overall the winter isn't cold...we just have to time up a couple of the storms. The problem with a fading nina is that we don't get the advantage that actually makes warmer enso better...the stronger STJ, which typically doesn't take effect until we get an actual warm enso. So I dont think there is really an advantage to a fading cold enso for our snowfall. That said, I do think a fluke can always happen. Something like 2014 for example, which was a wall to wall enso neutral year, could happen but it's just so rare it likely wouldn't show up in such a small sample just by random probabilities. If we had records that went back longer we probably would eventually see a snowy winter in a cold enso fading to neutral, IMO. But I think we can say it's not MORE likely that if the enso simply stays cold since we do have some examples of a snowy winter in a wall to wall cold enso winter...and absolutely NONE in a cold enso fading to neutral. Again, due to small sample I think that is somewhat a fluke, so saying it is WORSE is a step to far imo, but saying it is better also has no support.