All Activity

Regarding 1+2 less 3.4 per the table link below, 1982-3 fall/winter monthly peak was +1.1. This is based on Nov, which had 1+2 at +3.0 vs 3.4’s +1.9. 1997-8 peak differential was way up at +2.1 (also in Nov)! This is based on 1+2’s +4.5 vs 3.4’s +2.4. But the Euro per Ben’s quoted charts above has a mere only ~+0.7 for 2026-7’s peak monthly 1+2 less 3.4, which is in Sept with 1+2 then ~+3.8 vs 3.4’s ~+3.1! So, the Euro is actually forecasting 26-7 to have a somewhat weaker 1+2 less 3.4 than 82-3 and MUCH weaker than 97-8. So, it’s forecasting a less E based 26-7 than 82-2 and MUCH less E based than 97-8. Monthly ERSST: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Yeah, I saw that. HS state track going on yesterday, and today. Finals are today. My gson has qualified in the 110m & 300m hurdles. THHS is in Section 7A. At state they compete within Class A. 3 classes in the state. A, AA, AAA with their respective Sections. Hopefully nothing will pop this aftrn down there.

What happens when you get 1997 and 1972-like wind stress patterns with 2026 OHC/SSTs? We're about to find out.

I was fortunate to get 0.94" overnight and this morning because, overall, this disturbance did not drop the widespread 1-3" some models were advertising a day or two ago. Areas from Iowa City east and south got almost nothing. It had also looked like Friday night would be a good storm/rain event across the area, but now that appears to be gone south, so there are some spots in ec/se Iowa that will get nothing from both nights.

Let this be a lesson that the state and path dependency are more important than generally given credit for. Arguments about the spring barrier tended to discount this by default and also discount that these models have to parameterize certain calculations that end up biasing them *cold* on big honking tail events like this.

Yup a little worried about that. But targeting probably E NY/NW MA/S VT area tomorrow.

Good call, but a little quick in progression.

Sitting near/at record highs now.

June 5 1930: Heavy rain falls at Waseca. 4.3 inches of rain would fall over 24 hours. 1915: This date marks the first of a long stretch of days of measurable rain at Winton near Ely. Measurable rain would fall on each day until 19th. The total amount of rain for the fifteen days was over six inches. For Friday, June 5, 2026 1859 - Frost was reported from Iowa to New England. The temperature dipped to 25 degrees in New York State, and up to two inches of snow blanketed Ohio. The cold and snow damaged the wheat crop. (David Ludlum) 1908 - Helena MT was deluged with 3.67 inches of rain to establish their all-time 24 hour rainfall record. (4th-5th) (The Weather Channel) 1916 - A tornado struck the town of Warren AR killing 83 persons. There were 125 deaths that day in a tornado outbreak across Missouri and Arkansas. (David Ludlum) 1917 - Residents near Topeka KS reported disk-shaped hailstones six to ten inches in diameter, and two to three inches thick. The hailstorm was accompanied by a tornado. (The Weather Channel) (Note: Very rare, wow!) 1987 - International Falls, MN, dipped to a record low reading of 34 degrees during the morning. Williston, ND, and Glasgow, MT, reported record warm afternoon highs of 94 degrees. Major flooding was reported along the Guadelupe River in South Texas, with the water level at Cuero reaching 18 feet above flood stage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Twenty cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 40 degrees. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 108 degrees at Glasgow MT was a record for June. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Atlantic Coast during the day and into the night. Four tornadoes were reported, and there were 87 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

Only thing annoying is a batch of mid level clouds trying to spoil the sun midday. Maybe even a few sprinkles. May affect aftn development.

It is now. Each run a bit more aggressive. Again not everyone seems them, but should be a decent line or at least segments of storms.

0.26" total from yesterday, and last night. Stm blossomed just E of town last night.

Ideal air mass and atmospheric conditions for cooler nights and rapid rises during the day. A touch more humid today as air mass gets "dirtier" and heats up but still nothing oppressive. Moderate dews at worst. Less cooling expected tonight. Minimal rainfall next 7 days at least. Watering continues.

It was quite cold and I enjoyed every minute of it. Reminded me of yesteryear winters a bit. Many thanks to the IO-Pac warm pool for that gem. I went for below normal temps the entire winter. Only thing that didn't pan out was above normal snow (even though we ended up with >3.0" frozen LWE). Upcoming winter should be even easier to forecast than that one was. In fact, if you have trouble with this upcoming winter, I'm not sure this hobby is for you. (Hint: If you're using the CANSIPS here, you're in for a big disappointment.)

3k NAM not on board

And by scorching I mean 90+ for many... it will obviously be well AN ahead of that

UAH huggers are going to be in complete shambles in about 8 months. Gonna be really tough to explain that one away.

WB EPS seasonal outlook for December. Warm and wet.

Low of 58, as our heat starts to build. We will be at Bethany Beach all next week and it looks like we'll have a couple of cool beach days to contend with early in the week, with highs right around 70, but otherwise should have a nice week on our hands. We leave tomorrow after a morning baseball game. Kids are getting pumped.

Every morning this week has been fabulous. 40s and 50s imby all week.

We can probably assume that the W pac warm pool will finally slosh east if those model output verify. You don’t get a +4C ONI Nino without it doing so.

Very impressive progression of model forecasts over the last several months. Now we are getting past the spring forecast barrier. So this most recent forecast update incorporates the big increase in upper ocean heat and continuing WWBs.

AWT

Here comes the constructive interference boost from a budding +IOD