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Having lived through the 97/98 winter and seeing the setup we have currently, I do not see why we cant get a better snowfall outcome for the Northeast and MA. Yes its warmer. However, as I have been saying the warmer waters coupled with the abundant moisture can lead to larger snowfalls even if they are few and far between (warmer waters leading to stronger/deeper low pressures). Its not like we are 20 degrees warmer than 97/98.

He’s a weenie. We just said his siting isn’t greatest.

Someone said that you had a frost and freeze? That’s ridiculous.

Very impressive jet extension across the entire North Pacific showing up in the ensembles around mid-November.

Maybe all of NAMER can be the same temp all winter

Gfs looks much better this morning. It's not just white hot over Canada like it was showing all weekend.

I will say I think this bolsters confidence that it won't be as warm as 2015, but I don't think it will be "wintry".

Not necessarily....but I'm with you, I still think December is mild...too much evidence.

So boring Bring back La Nina

Bring back la nina

Well, that is a lock considering it's a "bottom-up" phenomenon...

My hydrangeas laughing at frost and freeze and folks saying there’s been one here and faulty equipment

I have no idea what you mean. I don't see how or why that is an analog in any way, shape or form, aside from the fact that it's likely to be a mild winter.

Without referencing any enso simililarities (or lack thereof), this fall has really reminded me of the fall of 21. I don't think SNE reallly got any snow that year until the Tuck-rule game. Hopefully this year will be better than that.

Yea I saw some in bloom last week. But I also said it might be due to when they were trimmed because October wasn’t that warm.

Hey look we actually won a game

In case anyone needs to know, the effect of bias adjustment on global average land temperatures is negligible. Why? Different parts of the world have different weather equipment histories with different biases. Net cooling bias in the US is balanced by warming bias elsewhere. Even in the US the effect of bias adjustment is relatively small compared to the warming experienced. Per Berkelely Earth charts below, bias adjustment warms the US by roughly 0.5C since 1850, which is 25-30% of the just under 2C warming since 1850 (US average warming is similar to global land average). The magnitude of the NCEI and Berkeley Earth bias adjustment for the US are similar. Why is the US different from the rest of the world? There are known sources of US bias, the largest being time of day bias. Another factor is the US reliance on volunteer observers. As lives changed, COOP stations moved or changed. Fortunately, the US has thousands of stations and the changes at individual changes occurred at different times. By intercomparing nearby US COOP stations, bias adjustment is very effective in identifying and correcting station changes. Finally note that Chesco is overestimating the effect of bias adjustment by not replicating NCEI's or Berkeley Earths methods. Main sources of error in his simple calculations: not accounting for changes in the station network with time, not removing the temperature difference between stations, and not accounting for the uneven grouping of stations. Depending on the area analyzed, these additional sources of error/bias can be as large or larger than bias adjustment. In contrast, Berkeley Earth and NCEI isolate the effect of bias adjustment by keeping all the other calculations the same when they compare bias adjustment and raw data cases. https://x.com/RARohde/status/1779044943501152416

Im in the low 30's, 50s not far away

Days and days of 70s.

Major flooding in Florida during what is normally a dry month there with how extreme this east based forcing is becoming.

I was more or less referring to the weeklies. I think they would be showing some hints of a pattern change if the Strat was showing signs of coupling.

Evidence growing to support your guess that this warming event never actually downwells to the bottom of the stratosphere and couples with the troposphere, then rapidly strengthens again into early December

This El Niño is so far ahead of 1997 in literally every metric (surface temps, subsurface temps, sea level heights, WWBs, DWKWs, 30C warm pool, warm water volume/OHC) it’s not funny. And we are about to see even more strengthening this month and into December with the oncoming massive WWB. The strongest east-based super El Niño in history is a lock