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Agree, it’s absolutely worth being open minded about this. I noticed a typical El Niño summer is cooler here, it has been a very hot summer more typical of a La Niña. My shitbox has no AC so this is something that is very noticeable for me. Like you said there is no disagreement about this early developing El Niño turning into one of the strongest super ninos on record, but even super ninos can have MC forcing. We saw it in the 2015-2016 super Nino when the super Nino + west pac warm pool MC forcing combined to produce one of the warmest Decembers ever in the east. 2015-2016 was a well coupled super Nino by every metric, and it had residual MC forcing in December. I’m not sure why there is so much resistance to idea. Both things can be true. It’s a powerful El Niño pattern that is driving the quiet Atlantic hurricane season + busy pacific hurricane season (classic strong El Niño signature), but there are other factors at play too that are interacting with the developing El Niño. There’s a reason we aren’t seeing the typical El Niño temp profile in the east this summer.

High of 88. Picked up .16" today with 2 separate showers.

What happened?

I find it interesting that we had a massive N. Pacific low as recent as 15-16. That was a big +PDO year. Is the PDO really that important or is it actually just a global warming occurrence??

One thing that makes it so difficult to even distribute summer rain here in the east is the inability to have nighttime MCC events. Over the Plains, you can easily put down 1-2" over a large area with one of those systems, but we so rarely get EMLs here that MCCs can't survive the trip east.

Clearly this will be one of the, if not the most powerful El Niño events on record. I was never debating that, but all I meant earlier is that it's fair to wonder if some of these marine heat waves that are a consequence of a rapidly warming planet are providing stronger competition around the hemisphere with even the strongest of ENSO events. It seems clear to me that they are. It's not a matter of "El Niño isn't well enough coupled or strong enough"; there is simply a lot more heat distributed throughout the Pacific basin, regardless of what ENSO does.

Do you see what's happening over Northern Harnette co? That's insane! BTW...still raining here lightly to moderate at times

August will deliver

My humidity at 10pm is 59% and that’s been over 10 days since under60% at 10.

That’s awesome y’all needed it bad! Not near as much up here but still a very respectable 0.88” which brings the MTD to 5.60”

High of 90 today. Dews have crept up into the low 70s this evening.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html You can get VP here...

Congrats!

Only .20 today so far, but combined with yesterday I’m at 3.84in for the weekend! When these storms set up and train, they mean business!

Starting to get interested in this up in Maine on vacation. Being in the woods at a cabin surrounded by huge trees. Easy to lose power at this location.

Today's Highs: PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 86 TEB: 85 LGA: 85 EWR: 84 BLM: 84 NYC: 84 TTN: 84 JFK: 83 ISP: 83 ACY: 82

Still pouring...over 2 inches...finally!!¡!!

Back from Seattle, though mother nature made us late getting back to RDU due to the weather. IT was gorgeous there with bright sunshine and high temps in the mid 70s during the day and mid 50s at night. Every morning i wanted to get up and enjoy the refreshing air. Had some rain while I was gone and as soon as I got into the shuttle bus this evening the skies opened up at RDU. Dumping rain. What a gift to come home too. The lawn looks a nice color of green now. I truly despise summers here though

111 in Billings, MT is insane. They just had snow in Montana 2 weeks ago! Do you guys notice this see-saw happening more times that not, although France is just exceeding and exceeding their records, not wavering back and forth between warm and cold there.

^ 6000dm is extending all the way to just south of Canada. That has to be some kind of record. Jul-Aug correlation to ENSO. Forgive me for including August but these are the 2 hottest months of the year.

Ok...I can verify insane rain in southern wake. Co....this is incredible+ Well over an inch!

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in these places in the NW US and I’m guessing there are others that I missed: 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places: how much did CC contribute to this? 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 —————— 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. Records at SLC go back to 1872! ——————— 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

Looks like in and around Asheville are getting hit hard

How often does something like this happen in the NW US in July during a strong El Niño? I assume hardly ever. Please correct me if I’m wrong. Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places: 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.