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Mix of snow/sleet/graupel here in Lebanon .

The 500mb pattern shown in Roundys post actually looks quite favorable for New England. -EPO/-NAO/-PNA with an SE ridge that does not link up with the block. It’s also worth noting that the -NAO here is more east based than south based like the past few years.

Well it's pretty normal to expect that the MJO wouldn't reach phase 8 in a la-niña situation with base easterlies, but forecasts change. Still tough to say if it'll stay there long but that seems to be the crux of the change in forecasts over the past week or so.

Euro is now cold in the long range. Big change.

~Dec 14-16th is my hope for a change to cold domination in most of the E US based on the MJO being progged to then get into 8 and allowing ~2.5 weeks following an SSWE to start a cold dominated pattern in the E US. In the meantime, the weekend after Thanksgiving giving has cooled a lot and looks a bit chilly as of now vs having looked mild just 3 days ago.

Not sure of the similarities to now, but...I remember a lot of SE ridge can kicks last year!

Black Friday will be a volatile forecast for the next week. Could be wintry or we could do the dew.

12z Euro seems to try and tee something up for the mountain folks Thanksgiving weekend?

Proof that it is too soon to say that summer's back is broken!

This only recently seen on the models cold shot is for the weekend after Thanksgiving. So, this is technically during the last days of Nov. Then I still expect a mainly mild first half of Dec. while the MJO crosses 7 and we wait to see what the SSWE does just afterward. Of course expectations and reality sometimes don’t match well.

And semis on the rocks in Chain of Ponds. Addressing the 2002-03 and 2003-04 question: 02-03 was great in SNE but cold and dry here - suppression. Total snow was 75% of average and it's one of only 3 (of 27) winters without a 20"+ month. 03-04 was front-loaded here. The storms of Dec 6-7 and 14-15 totaled 37.1". the rest of the snow season had only 35.5".

Did the SSW actually happen/still on track to happen?

https://twitter.com/IsaacWxObserver/status/1990846704552153573?s=20 EDIT: for some reason link isn't embedding

A month from now this would of been a nice 2-4"/3-5" event

Wasn't there a back-to-back period there where BDL put up like 90" then 70"+?

Should be the other way around

It will come east but modified. Can we get the storm track to our SE instead of a parade of cutters? If I was in the upper TN valley/Ohio valley I would be really excited.

ECM 1" line rides northern Lehigh County

No.

I'm thinking you might be seeing a rain/snow mix. it's very hard to see that out of your window, but you might see some translucent, very wet flakes if you go outside and analyze

02-03 was very good…but again not wire to wire.

The Earth would typically need to see a shift of 0.1° (about 7 miles) or more for an impact on its climate through changes in solar insolation. The reported shift is far less than that. It's essentially meaningless from a climate standpoint.

Kind of figured that was coming….that’s why I asked you this morning what I did. Yes, we take.

1” at MMU? Not much chatter in the office about any snow coming. Could be a fun surprise.

It would have been 93-94. That winter was record breaking ln CT. And then So was 95-96. But they both melted out completely at a point. And that’s just it…it’s super rare to not have that happen at some point in SNE.