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Swain- 120 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations up to 8 inches in the Smokies. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Swain County. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

BWI: 12.9” DCA: 9.7” IAD: 15.3” RIC: 8.1” SBY: 9.8”

Chicago forecast is wow

Winner

Winter storm warning all the way down here in East Central IL for up to 10 inches lol. We’re back boys!

Are they 4 real?

From snow in your backyard to climate change, this board has taught me never to underestimate the power of confirmation bias.

So this is happening huh Need to dig in

The latest LOT AFD is insane. Apparently, this has potential to make the history books. In our lifetime, I'm struggling to recall a similar type of setup, especially so early in the season. I hope you Chicago folks enjoy!

Picked up 1.8” so far. We shall see how the rest goes. But here’s one of my cats enjoying a view as the intensity of snowfall started to increase.

BWI: 22.5 DCA: 19.1 IAD: 24.8 RIC: 13.2 Tie Breaker LYH: 18.5

Results TBD, but the early morning AFD from LOT is…quite

“Impossible travel conditions” not sure I’ve seen that wording before lol

Switch to snow was late but not denied. Surprisingly efficient at covering the ground thus far. First flakes & measurable snowfall booked Edit 1 Hour Later: This defo band is serious business. It is ripping. Complete coverage of ground and pavement. Would certainly accumulate better with more favorable antecedent conditions. But wow - exceeding my own expectations.

If this verifies, we could be looking at our first winter storm threat around or after Thanksgiving. Maybe more 40N-north. 18z GFS ensemble mean at 384hr also had a pretty strong -EPO developing. Basically, the NAO is negative for the next 15 days, then the block retrogrades to NE Canada, just when the Pacific changes to more -epo/+pna around Nov 24-25 and after. That actually creates a window for a trough to track across the US, under the -NAO ridge in NE Canada, giving us a chance for a storm to hit colder air after Thanksgiving. The H5 in the map below is good, but we probably need a few days to flush out the old slightly warmer pattern. Still a long way to go, but it's looking good for at least below average temps beyond Day-15, based on current long range models. That cross polar ridge, with a GOA trough and 50/50 trough (although both are weak) is what you want to see -- especially good ridging over Alaska. It's a winterystorm pattern, although early in the year.

Official first flakes here. Also “ greater than 3in per hour goddamn!” Hope someone here gets under a band (and shares pictures with the class of course).

0.56" of rain here.

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude The paper by BTV NWS linked above is a fantastic overview of the role the froude number plays in orographic precipitation. When cyclonic flow sets up over the mountains, flakes are flying somewhere

Snow is coating the grass rapidly here, God I've missed it

Early November. Brisk air and gray skies.

Things I’ve never had to pay attention to. Looks wintry up at SLK for the next week. Just about perfect timing for my trip up.

It took a couple of hours but we finally started seeing accumulation. DAB+

The models keep getting better! That upper level low pass looks classic across all guidance. Pretty excited for this one.

6th freeze for here

Did someone say...snow showers? Greetings fellow nerds, it's been a while. Today was my bday and you cannot ask for a finer 11/8 around here.