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satisfied with WWA ... just the grease factor is enough to send SUVs pirouetting down highways while the entitled arrogance at the wheel is all confused how their elitist automobile is doing that.

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Dec 29-Jan 5 window favors EC snowstorms (apart from lighter snows that don’t pop up in modeling until less than 5 days). But once the +PNA develops after Jan 5 (if it does), all bets are off.

There are many maps floating around and I’m wondering what the opinion is here about SW Michigan (Kalamazoo in the lake effect belt). We are getting pouring rain right now. Will this turn into a blizzard or just an annoying 4 inch snow after one inch of rain?

I do that Gone are the days are getting into an ice cold car.

We have seen this look in some recent winters- a TPV/vorticity lobe under the GL ridge forming the block, with lower heights extending towards 50-50, but southward displaced. A lot of NS action with that look so could be some fun tracking lol. Getting a southern storm to gain latitude/not get sheared out may be a challenge for the Jan 3-5 window.

Yeah if you are getting 0.10”/hr or more QPF, even at 28F, that’s going to try very hard to quickly get to 32F through latent heat release. I think we see a lot of 0.1-0.25” type ice with driving on cold pavement, cold dirt roads and side roads as the bigger issue.

Hrrr is also on the southern edge of guidance with the initial waa burst. Nam/euro are further north with the bulk of it and have alot less qpf from SNH southward

January looks to get off to a cool start in the eastern U.S. and Great Lakes Region. The Southwest will likely remain abnormally warm for at least the opening of January. The latest EPS teleconnection forecast calls for the development of a predominant WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern. It may take some time for the PNA+ to develop. That's probably where the greatest uncertainty lies. An alternative scenario involves a continuation of the WPO-/PNA- in combination with the EPO+/AO-. If the PNA+ fails to develop and the WPO goes positive, warmth could develop on a larger scale across North America with the cold being limited to mainly Alaska and Canada. That is currently a low probability outcome but a wildcard that can't be dismissed. EPS 9-13 Day Outlook: WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ (January 1-10, 1980-2025): ECMWF Weeklies (December 29-January 5): ECMWF Weeklies (January 5-January 12): The development of a predominant WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern is the baseline scenario. Despite some social media rumors of a big snowstorm in parts of the East during the first 7-10 days of January, the forecast teleconnections typically do not favor large East Coast snowstorms. Instead, they favor lighter snows. For reference, New York City had no 6' or above snowstorms during January 1-10, 1950-2025 with a WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern.

Mixed precip just started here. Should transition to all snow pretty quickly.

I'm telling you the synoptic limitations that are in the actual models. The interpretation after the fact, not sure where this 'I gotta bad feeling ...' trope is necessitated from. Using your worlds, we can't even support the doom interpretation: 'even if 50%' ...well, 50% of what. .9 accretion? that's arithmetically only .45, less than standard warning ice. Ice "storms" don't typically manifest the way this is modeled for a reason. The event timing is too fast. Falls rates may be moderate, and accretion efficient for a time, but it's moving off way, waaay faster than climo icestorm typology. Yeah, 2007 ... but that was a unique situation, and it was also longer than this will be, too. As icing sets up, it release latent heat of phase change; there need be a constant lower DP source to offset this physical process of fixing. There is no source for that. EDIT, ah, I just saw you responded.

No explanation, but I have to mention that someone posted JB saying he thought a trough would retrograde from the east. Maybe he was on to something.

Anytime I see 925-950ish going above 0C relatively quickly, I sell big ice accretion. You’d need something super inverted like 20F at the sfc to overcome the warm drops.

On the southern fringe for this one. Added to my existing tree ice overnight. Still below freezing but expecting a roughly 12 hr window reaching into the upper 30's. If the ground glacier can hold on the 3" of wind-blown snow tomorrow could at least make for some potential drifting. Storm Warning just a half county NW of here. Overall amounts have trended up on the regional NWS forecast map (a little bit may be from weaking clipper Tue/Wed fwiw)

But it only takes 15 minutes of freezing drizzle to turn I93 into a demolition derby. At least the state piled a couple hundred thousand pounds of salt on the highway for the 1” the other day so the salt residue remains.

Man that looks good. Just need that primary to be just a little less aggressive. .

And to Tip’s point…. A short period of +RA with marginal <32° temps and no evaporative cooling offset isn’t going to result in significant accretion. A lot of that liquid will run off and “waste” to the ground.

Yeah

I hated that storm but always love your account of it. We almost got our pack wiped in that one. Only reason we didn’t was because there was so much sleet and water equivalent in it from like 5 previous high QPF events that had started with the Dec 29-30, 1993 storm. But it was mowed down to about 2” of glacier.

Freezing is a warming process. Temps will spike quickly to 32 everywhere except the valleys of NNE.

Gotta separate QPF as ZR and actual accretion too. I think you’ll have some decent icing up there around 1k Gene. But there’s really no ageostrophic lower dewpoint drain to offset the diabatic warming so once the ZR begins it’s a slow trend upward to 32°. I think we’ll probably wedge into the 30s until the cold fropa, but I think any additional accretion ends here in the morning and maybe mid to late morning up there.

*Meet up* I'll be at Kasoag Lake tavern and grill on Friday January 5th at the base of the Tug Hill. I'm going to rent a snowmobile and head up onto the Tug Hill. The forecast from Jay, at Kasoag Lake is for an intense lake effect snow band that will drop feet of snow on the region.

Fun times! And no security cams recording the lot and snapping license plate photos.

0z EPS for the 4th- vorticity and surface pressure- got some southern stream action. Precip stays just to the south.

I just saw this right after I made my post. Would all these negative factors apply for us up here too?

Wishing a road trip was in the cards tbh.