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Rebooting https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Yes

Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today.

Has gotten much more hazy/smokey over the last hr. Appears to be at surface level now.

Wind is roaring…I can hear trees falling in the woods from the run.

Updated afternoon Day 3 SPC disco Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, mainly Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late Saturday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and vicinity... Some amplification of a mid/upper-level trough is expected over the northeastern CONUS on Saturday, as multiple shortwaves move through the base of the trough. The primary surface low is expected to deepen as it moves across southern Quebec toward northern Maine. A trailing cold front will move through parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast. A remnant surface front initially draped from western PA toward the Delmarva region is forecast to lift northeastward as a warm front through the period. As deep-layer flow strengthens atop a richly moist and destabilizing warm sector, organized severe potential is expected to develop across a relatively broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic, with at least an isolated threat potentially reaching parts of New England. Uncertainties include the influence of early-day convection and potential persistent smoke on the northeastward extent of substantial surface-based destabilization. Along the cold front, the greatest relative threat is currently expected from the lower Great Lakes into eastern parts of the Ohio Valley, where stronger 850-700 mb flow (around 25-40 kt) is forecast. Organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind and isolated hail may evolve along/ahead of the front and spread eastward. Rich boundary-layer moisture and modest enhancement to low-level SRH may also result in some tornado threat, depending on storm-mode evolution. Favorable moisture/buoyancy will also extend westward along/ahead of the front into parts of the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley, but there may be more of a tendency for convection to be undercut by the front with westward extent. Farther south/east, organized convection may evolve or reintensify near the effective warm front by afternoon into parts of PA/NJ, and also develop into parts of MD/VA along/east of a surface trough. Very warm temperatures and steepening low-level lapse rates will become supportive of damaging-wind potential, and isolated hail may also occur. Some tornado threat could also evolve in closer proximity to the warm frontal zone. An extensive frontal QLCS may develop by evening, and continue to pose some wind-damage threat for as long as it persists into Saturday night.

I am so ready to rip a squall line through Saturday night

Close https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-midwest-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

This is one of the more legitimate discussions we've gotten this year. Not too often large hail is mentioned so often for us. 3k NAM into the future has CAPE nearly reaching 5000 in ffx county as the first round of storms roll through. Has appreciable supercell/tor composite values thanks to the shear mentioned in the AFD and some turning with height alongside the directional stuff. As mentioned, even after it gets dark we stay with impressive CAPE values of 3000+! Question for our mets, but could the D-word get tossed around with that line of storms overnight?

GOES East on COD's website has been up and running for a couple hours.

Depends on how you prompt the AI and what model you use. If you use the most complex model and give it a detailed prompt and question, you'll get a detailed answer in return. It's still simply a tool rather than an absolute source. Have I used it in my own work? Yes, and it's inadvertently given me academic papers that I or my coworkers are on as sources and quoted it correctly so YMMV. I personally compare the quickest, and usually free versions of the AI to be the same as chatting with friends about random topics while hammered.

One of the downsides of the smoke is that it has reduced the surface heating and therefore boundary layer depth. The high dews are not being mixed out as they would on a day without smoke.

Pretty crazy how this happens. There is research too about damage paths in the South contributing to local enhancement of thunderstorm activity because of the temperature gradient which becomes established between the vegetation and the damage path. I think even some research with burn scars in the West with rain/storms

Definitely back to an orange tint. Nothing like yesterday

Truly awful out, lifting weights in my un air conditioned garage and just soaked head to toe

Thats the Township that I manage where you see the Jordan Creek. By the way, I got an email from PADOT yesterday, that same bridge you went over on RT 100 is going to be replaced in 2029 with detours. Not going to be easy

I can see the smoke now against the dark green woods moving through the wind. Strong smell. Interestingly enough, the sun seems brighter than it has since this all started. Maybe because it's more surface smoke now?

Secondary lake breeze that moved through is helping to pull more smoke in.

Moderate rain showers with very high winds just moved across Newfound Lake. A very quick drop in temperature to 66Fl Boaters are scrambling. No lightning. I'm sheltered from the W/NW winds but gusted to 30mph. I'm sure winds gusted to near 50mph out on the lake. Watching the live cams. Boaters are scrambling...

Will get a little hazy but this won’t be bad at all. So much better than yesterday.

Isn't this blatantly wrong? It's the HRRR that always has the overmixing problem, just in the past couple setups the soundings from the Nam may show 3000 CAPE while HRRR is out with 1000 or less. This is a good reminder that AI is bullshit; as in it is extremely confident but has no actual checks on if it is true which is my personal definition of bullshit. It always sounds "correct" until it is your field of expertise you ask it on.

More images coming through the satellite

Could you also call my county rec program and get them to cancel softball tomorrow night lol

It shunts the 200+ near surface smoke off to our east (Capeland) so we get values around 100. Talked to the team reps for my swim team and fought to get practices reduced from 1 hour to 45 minutes for age groups tomorrow. My atmosphere course last fall really emphasized how pm is not something you want to play around with when it comes to nearly any exposure. It's the day before divisionals so we're tapering anyways.

yeah smoke really flexing on cook co now