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36/17. Very light and small flakes. It’s barely 9 am lol

Is the primary simply stronger with the NAM?

The NAM is very concerning. Hopefully 3k is nothing like that

The problem with the NAM is the sleet bombing happens during the best rates and we lose a ton of qpf. As others have stated, we need the thump to come in hot and heavy and the switch over to be after best rates have passed. NAM has a general 6-8" for the southern tier counties. It doesn't change the fact that it's a highly impactful event but it would change snow maps quite a bit. Do we take this seriously? I think we have to at this point, even if it may be a shade overdone.

Still about 9 hours of snow for my locale on the NAM. I think that should be 10” verbatim. Then if the sleet is real, that would make one heck of a pack. Honestly, I don’t dislike it. Of course I want 16” of powder, but that’s looking unlikely at this point.

700's look to be showing coastal influence at 27 (column collapsing)? Watch that in future runs. COULD be a path to victory for southers. This is the warmest model and I'm gonna keep an eye on that. Might be noise. Dunno

Said the same thing when I looked at radar just now and saw precip on my doorstep. 8 hrs ahead of schedule.

NAM also showing that sleet line crashing south again and then back north in the evening. Somewhere along that area is in for a rough few hours.

Soundings are almost identical but the HRRR depicts differently on the precip type maps

two truck accidents. one on I-22 in Mississippi near New Albany... the other on I-65 near Athens, Alabama.

NAM does have a line of freezing rain in the foothills at hour 36 that changes to rain as it moves across NC.

I miss posted .

When nne is yanking a couple times to the nam, it comes at a cost for some of us…

Got down to 1 degree this morning. A fresh dusting of 1/4" Still nothing overly impactful anywhere in the pipeline.

Nobody has a clue what is going to happen.

ANd freezing rain on top of that. Not a catastrophic amount, but enough to be a problem.

Nowcast precip shield more expansive than 3k nam forecast for 14-15z, with the ice line a tick further south than modeled. But just a little bit

Totally agree

This has that 12/20 feel where the Euro had me at 18" and BWI was 4"+ two days before, only for the Nam to knock sense into everything. I ended up with 6" and then ip/zr.

MIDNIGHT Monday HRRR keeps giving. Looking good.

If the NAM is right, you'll probably need to shovel sleet twice to avoid throwing your back out lol.

Bring the juice. Sling it up and in and don’t stop.

Nam is perilously close to a ton of sleet for most of CT/RI/SE Mass.

This is one of those where josh could get 8 inches, while my backyard gets a dusting. You should do well.