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the big pattern change is afoot- 4 corners lows constantly ejecting toward us for the next 3-4 weeks. One of them should be a minimal car topper event but still the GOM is not opened for business yet. We really need one of the 4 corner lows to go into the GOM and then run up the coast and stall as a Miller A. The PAC winds are just to strong right now and too progressive. Three more days of 40+ winds coming this week. I am so tired of dealing with dead ash trees falling with our public works dept.

A lot of the hi-res models have lake effect streamers making their way across PA tomorrow evening. Some of us could get a localized snow squall that whitens the ground.

Sunday is going to be rough. Advisory snow from lake bands in the north. Advisory level wind everywhere. White outs as far as as 81. And some gusts north of 55 mph. Pattern turns blustery behind the cold front late Saturday night through Sunday. Wind gusts 30-40+ mph are definitely in the cards with potential for advisory criteria. The increasingly strong west-northwest flow will develop across the Great Lakes and open up the potential for lake effect/upslope snow into the interior of CPA Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Specifically, a multi-lake connected snowband or bands is trending more likely to probable based on the latest higher res model guidance extending from Lake Superior/Huron across Erie into northwest PA. Probabilities are at least 50/50 for advisory level snow accum especially in more persistent NW flow trajectory bands. There may also be an emerging signal for some squalls or very long fetch bands perhaps extending as far southeast as the I-81 corridor. We were keen to message the multitude of potential hazardous weather concerns over the weekend in ranked order of confidence (high to low): -strong (non-tstm) wind gusts >40mph -lake effect snow accumulation north of I-80 & west of US-219 -heavy snow bands or squalls -strong thunderstorm wind gusts >50 mph

oak Armageddon

Inches of leaves on my yard. It’s like a KU of leaves.

From the latest ENSO PPT (backloaded winter vibes?)... La Niña conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with La Niña. La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 - February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).*

One and ONLY leaf cleanup after lunch today. Temps climbing nicely after a low of 27.

Latest EPS and GEFS extended MJO both head into Phase 7 by the end of the month after a long stall in warm Phase 6. Question: DT states 7 is still a warm phase in December while JB says 7 is ok in December. Anyone have data on this topic. If 7 is still warm we will wait until mid December for Phase 8.

They just showed this pic on Fox 25. You fooking weenie.

Sounds like a cartopper, at least.

Social media version of the ECMWF weekly forecast for December 1-8:

I had 30 seconds of heavy rain.

The slowdown has happened a few times in the past as it got closer. Sometimes models are too gungho in the long range just to tame it back.

It’s certainly possible that it goes into phase 8 in December. However, the earlier idea that it would propagate into phase 8 by the end of this month appears to be dead in the water right now. The progression has slowed considerably

Cloudy for 2 days, then a broken line of showers, and then partly sunny and windy for 2 days followed by 1.5 days of nice weather...rinse, repeat. If this is the base state satellite imagery this winter...then we're staring down the barrel of another steroidal La Nina pattern... https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G19&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

How about the other MJO plots ? November was always supposed to be mild towards the end. Its the end of Novenber into December when the pattern flips favorable .

Another case of the NAO/AO disconnect that we’ve been seeing more frequently the last 10 years….the NAO/AO used to almost always go positive or negative together and you rarely saw a disconnect between the two

Albert Hammond 1972 "It Never Rains In Southern California" Seems It Never Rains In Southern California Seems I've Often Heard That Kind Of Talk Before It Never Rains In California But Girl, Don't They Warn Ya ? It Pours, Man, It Pours

Below are the four major clusters for the EPO-/WPO-/PNA-/AO- (91% of all cases): Currently, the guidance favors the most common cluster.

Sorry to hear. Had something similar happen to us 8 years ago with rare genetic disorder. Wishing for brighter times ahead my friend.

But Should there really be much to show in the first two weeks of November in SNE?

28.7 here. Not sure how that happened with it colder than you . Last leaf cleanup once it warms a bit more

26F for a low with a little snow OTG. Fleeting but wintry for a few hours

lol fangs

Exactly. Thing is tucked into a corner, that faces the sun, and probably has compressor heat blowing on it. Thing would never survive out in the open…period. Silly and laughable to say that is a legit example. It’s not.