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This feels like January 2024 all over again except totals may be much higher this time .

Just your typical weenie walking the edges of the cliff as they live and die on every model run madness

Oh they changed that

Does the Nam go past 84hrs? Cause not sure how hey could see what kind of solution it would have showed lol.

Haven't had time to look at anything since this morning. Just checked the 12z Ens all look great. What did I miss?

It seems like we often lose a system before it gets here and then it comes back around. From what I’ve seen this happens often with the modeling. I’m gonna remain very optimistic and hope for a very snowy weekend. .

How do you tell that from these 2 charts?

Call me nuts but I wish this next storm is 100% FZ w/temps around 12-15F/Day. We haven't had a hum dinger of a icing in a while. Besides, I'm sick of snow. That's old news...need some new blood in here. 20F

558 FXUS61 KLWX 202014 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 314 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is continuing to increase for a significant winter storm for the region Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, snow accumulations increase for upslope snow showers in the Alleghenies Wednesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Significant winter storm expected across the Mid- Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week. - 2) Accumulating snow is likely along the Alleghenies Wednesday night through Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant winter storm expected across the Mid-Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week. Broad upper troughing will remain established across the Great Lks into the northern Mid-Atlantic through at least early next week. Southern stream energy is expected to interact with very cold air to the north to produce moderate to heavy snow across the area this weekend. Looking at most recent model data, the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM remain the furthest south and weakest solutions as it leaves more energy cut off while the 12Z EC and Canadian models show more energy getting absorbed into the northern stream. The 12Z EPS and AIFS are more consistent with their deterministic runs while the GFES shows a very different solution to its deterministic run. Will continue to highlight a significant winter storm affecting the area this weekend in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.

The goofus just totally drives people nuts, really. Which, I want to make fun of but also...it's annoying that the GFS is doing this. Then again, it is up against itself in terms of its insane windshield wiping even from run to run. In any event, as I noted previous thread, if the GFS was showing us getting hammered like it is the Carolinas in this instance and every other model was showing everything Philly and north we would be absolutely certain that we were hosed... And yet, hard to feel completely ok with the GFS continuing to intermittently spit in the pool. But I sure do like where we sit.

Yep, sign me up for that, then some cold so it sticks around, and I won't care what it does the rest of the season, I will have had my fix.

NBM for Freezing Rain. They don't issue a sleet one that I know of.

Nope

No...lol

12z EPS showing some hangback moisture on Monday - i'm guessing a few members showing redevelopment or invt trough hanging back.

The Euro showed 10 inches for Raleigh and the GFS had 17 inches, but the board morale is that of a soup-line snow-weenie.

Definitely! Maybe I enjoy storm and then go to PR for a few less days.

Weeklies

thankfully uncommon in this area....still remember 94. ouch. my butt still hurts....hint; don't walk out on the ice....

That was the event @ORH_wxman and I talk about where we had synoptic sleet with heavy OE snow at NZW. One of those Jan 94 events.

18z NBM

Lemons into Lemonade!

We need to see some positive trends tonight for the sanity of this board but the fact remains- there will be winners and big time losers here. Losing here carries more repercussions than usual (extended outages, etc).

I've been busy all day. Wonder if the whinging and meltdowns over op runs have been predominant from the usual. (my guess is yes) I just checked the 12z ensembles and they all look fine. All I need to see until HH. On we go.