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Buckle up, big boy!

After 12z runs on Saturday. Storm is still very far away

WB 0Z GEFS says what storm....

It's surreal at Mammoth. Up to 39 inches just since yesterday. People trying to remove snow from the deck on the Main Lodge, waist deep to nearly chest deep in new snow lol. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge Even the Village Level got demolished with at least 2 feet of new snow. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village They have 20-26 more inches coming today as a new colder storm takes aim on The Sierra.

Per Noaa - Watches are issued up to 72 hours in advance with forecaster confidence around 50%. So... if things look really good on Thursday, Winter Storm watches will be hoisted.

This board excels at overestimating ratios.

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 2h Wish to see the rain in LAX on Thursday first, but the 5 big storms I am using have the AIS very close for Sun-Mon storm. Cool, the way these threats are always on the weekend. Case Study on Weatherbell. So far Google and GFS AI are beating Euro, tho at 06z, EURO AI went to them

Why does everyone want to end winter while still in February? Approaching mid March I might understand it especially for all of you NYC and south..

Still waiting until Friday night to get excited. Have a feeling this will be warmer then its depicting, but glad to see a lot of models coming together to at least show something. Long way to go still.

we are due to hit pay dirt with this storm end winter with a bang..

Please, it's still 5-6 days away. Time for many things to change, but I like where they are today.

This is getting real fellas. I don't know if I can handle the week ahead ha.

When you self bar yourself again.

When you issue them with one of your future forecast packages

I don't think so

Blizzard watches were discontinued in late 2017.

why am i getting march 2001 vibes

Oh im calibrated alright

when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings?

Yes.

Great point except that isn’t usually at least til Mar or April for even the strongest oncoming ones. And lots of times it isn’t till summer or even early fall, especially for the weak ones. In summary, it’s too early for a predominant -SOI even assuming El Niño is on the way in 2026. March is typically the very earliest.

I could see it start out 8-1 and if we get into a consolidated CCB, we have historically done ok in those with 12-1 or so. PSU and Mappy Land will exceed that. IF it happens at all.

I'm fully expecting nothing more than 7:1 ratios. especially to start, but that has its own fun! Plus the CCB deathband 50:1 ratios are coming for us

Already hearing sun angle talks

Man 12z guidance has been Incredible. Let’s hope both euros cap this off and we can begin entering the “holy shit this might be real” phase