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No idea about the specifics correlation or lag. I just know the correlation is meaningful and positive. I started looking more at the sector seeing the cold snap caused the price of nat gas to move way up but the big producers didn’t follow likewise. I then dug a little deeper and saw evidence in the long term price behavior of the major producers that people are rotating into the sector—building positions. Of the group, CVX chart looked the best to me. I also believe natural gas is in a long term uptrend. The recent cold snap was just adding fuel for a breakout.
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26 degrees, vehicle is covered and steady snow.
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I think it is just slowing the ULL some, seems like once it closes off a little earlier than previous runs showed it spins SE slower and has also corrected west a little bit. RAP seems to start and hour or two earlier than HRRR in MBY.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
MickeyTim6533 replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
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Yall will start later tonight.
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February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!
CAPE replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
lol no -
January 30th- Feb 1st ULL and coastal storm obs
KyleEverett replied to JoshM's topic in Southeastern States
Few flakes seen falling in Lancaster, SC. -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
donsutherland1 replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Good luck. I'm pulling for all of you. Hopefully, the HRRR will be more generous with the Triangle in its 0z run. Its 18z solution seemed unrealistic, but we'll see. -
It's true. The DMV is too far north. NC will always get all the snow when we have strong cold air over DC. I might need to write up a morbid story about NC in the Blizzard and thousands of people trying to walk along I95 in waist high, rapidly deepening snow while NE gales scream overhead. Now watch what happens in late April when the Pattern finally changes. DC will get demolished by torrential rain.
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
USCG RS replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Nice to see you down this way -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
donsutherland1 replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.
ShawnEastTN replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Got a nice dusting now, very wind blown snow. If get any appreciable snow I could see there being drifts. -
Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
While obviously too light overall, the heaviest portions of this are present, but are displaced to the west by 20-30 miles. If that holds true for the entire event, could be good news for SE TN. -
Thank you. The general radar sites look wonky.
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1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
One other thing that has been interesting to me looking through the SPC meso page, is this ribbon of deep DGZ around the stretched out vorticity: I think there is a 3000' thick DGZ layer back in Kansas. EDIT: Oh wow, that's not in feet, it's in meters. So that's almost 10000 feet thick- 777 replies
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
Snowncanes replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
HRRR initialized too dry again. Not sure what the problem is but barely has anything on the radar view while the actual radar has returns over SC, N NC, and the mountains. -
Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.
GBOVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just guessing…I’ve got a little over an inch . -
Arctic Hounds Unleashed: Long Duration Late January Cold Snap
Ginx snewx replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
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Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
There is an initial round of snow working its way through Hamilton County. The orientation is wrong for what I expect the main show to be. It honestly just resembles normal NW flow. I think as the ULL moves in this will re-orient into nearly a due N-S direction. Seeing some ground truth MPING reports in the city now. Nothing IMBY yet, but we should get some light precipitation shortly. 32 here. -
Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.
BlunderStorm replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
2.6 inches on the measurement site and closing in on 4 in the grass with the old stuff. A combination of artificial and moonlight has visibility around three quarters of a mile with the flakes being very fine but numerous. 20F with calm breeze from the NNE. Patiently waiting for reinforcements hoping I'm not too NW yet I can't complain, this is one of the prettiest snows I have seen this decade. -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
StantonParkHoya replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Roxboro has the climate of a town in western Massachusetts. If you sneeze it will snow there. . -
Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.
Tucker1027 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
This is what the HRRR says is happening right now…. . -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
AJF0602 replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Jacksonville here as well, really interested to see what happens here closer to the coast. Curfews already in place here starting tomorrow at 6pm. -
Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Per the 18z 3K NAM…I do think this builds some to the north and west of 81 in TRI….but just not sold this goes to anywhere near Euro levels in that area. What I am getting is just cold air wringing out moisture at the lower levels. I would guess the 3K NAM adjusts sharply downward at 0z for areas west of 81. But I am willing to give it a chance. With storms like these, I have watched this set up too many times to name…often it just never builds back this direction. Holding steady at 1.25” of snow. -
2025-2026 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah, true, I was doing March because I thought the volume at the end of the month of Jan could be too low.. but you could have got out of it today comfortably. It was about a +100% price increase for Feb contract from Dec 31 to Jan 30. In the future I'll do the closest month to said forecast.
