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Another good drenching for the coast.

Maybe 0.4” here. Take it.

This is December. Loop through it. They're not bad thanks to lower heights. Edit: NNE is obviously warmer as in most moderate or strong Niños https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026071818&fh=5

The luck of the draw also dealt me a losing hand yesterday but this was a model loser since Thursday, therefore, I was not surprised. NWS high probs. really don't count anymore. Monterey received .92" and Marlinton W.Va. got 1.59".

The lower heights doesn't mean it will be cold given the super Nino.

I'll say this: Cfs2 continues to advertise a decent with pattern in the east this winter, including the illusive, albeit displaced at times, Aleutian Low. This is the link starting December. Loop through it and you'll see what I mean. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5 P.s. April looks near perfect too!

1.00" on the dot looks like 2-3" for ewb, Falmouth, mvy

Your AI isn't very well informed about the changes with time at the Chester County COOP stations. That's on you. Garbage in, Garbage out. The raw data clearly shows that Coatesville, Phoenixville, and West Chester cooled by roughly 2F after station moves in the 1946-70 period.. As discussed above, The roughly 2F cooling at the 3 Chesco COOPs matches the 2F cooling relative to ABE. The station move cooling isn't a small change. Very easy to see in the raw data.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A vigorous upper trough will spread across the region on Tuesday. A broad area of strong deep-layer flow, especially by July standards, will overlap a very moist airmass ahead of an eastward progressing surface cold front. Widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. While some uncertainty exists regarding potential morning convection in the form of a remnant MCS from the Day 2/Monday period across parts of MI/IN/OH, pockets of stronger heating should occur, and given rich moisture/continuous warm advection ahead of the surface front, strong destabilization is forecast. While boundary layer moisture will begin the day somewhat muted across parts of the Northeast, strong warm advection and increasing southerly low-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast will also result in northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture through evening. While instability may be somewhat less further east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, strong deep-layer flow will envelop this region as well. Supercell wind profiles are evident across the broad warm sector, with 40+ kt westerly flow common above 850 mb. Where supercells can develop and be maintained, all severe hazards will be possible. However, given the strong flow field, and the progressive trough and surface front, one or more bowing segments will quickly develop and spread eastward. Swaths of damaging winds will be the primary concern during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

That escalated quickly for Tuesday...

Yes. The smoke after the rain was very noticable.

Woke up to a thunderstorm rolling over right now. Had 3 rounds of rain yesterday that put down half an inch or so. This one is small but it's pouring down. Looks like another, bigger one lined up behind this one if it doesn't die out.

Makes sense. For about 50 years (before 2015-16), many of the strongest el ninos were followed by the strongest la ninas: 1972-73 super el nino -> 1973-76 la nina (with 1973-74 and 1975-76 being strong la ninas) 1982-83 super el nino -> 1983-85 la nina 1986-88 strong el nino -> 1988-89 strong la nina 1997-98 super el nino -> 1998-2001 la nina (with 1998-2000 being a strong la nina) 2009-10 strong el nino -> 2010-12 la nina (with 2010-11 being a strong la nina)

The 0Z Euro is the 1st one that I can recall with TCG of 91L. It even gets to borderline TS status S of the W FL panhandle Tue night

Tonight's sunset was freaking stellar! Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The Asheville airport got hammered yesterday with 3.29 inches of rainfall shattering the old record of 1.61 inches. Very impressive storm there.

0Z UKMET: 5th run in a row of having a TD (TCG tomorrow) as well as a TS (upgraded Mon night) but doesn’t get as strong as prior 2 runs; mainly WNW movement to SE LA Wed night NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 27.4N 85.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 12 27.4N 85.2W 1011 23 0000UTC 20.07.2026 24 28.0N 85.1W 1008 25 1200UTC 20.07.2026 36 27.7N 85.5W 1007 27 0000UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.4W 1005 31 1200UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.6N 86.1W 1004 36 0000UTC 22.07.2026 72 28.9N 86.6W 1004 38 1200UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.7N 88.3W 1004 46 0000UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.9N 89.5W 1006 36 1200UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.4N 90.7W 1009 35 0000UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

The underrated days are often the best days. Tends to be a good rule of thumb around here. So many of our higher end days seem to be conditional, so it's no surprise that up here those conditions are harder to meet than most other places that get storms.

Looks somewhat similar to today, with perhaps weaker instability but better wind fields. Same idea of a poorly-timed front, but plenty of storms forming on a lee or some other type of pre-frontal trough.

Amazing how we can have a lot of headlines….and zero happens T Storm wise…hmmm. We used to it. Although I don’t need any hail damage to my vehicle…so it’s not that disappointing.

Ahh that sucks…it poured here real good. Move back to Bristol..more snow, and more rain …WIN WIN.

Upton rain totals are a good bit lower than I expected. Highest in Suffolk County is 2.58" in N Babylon. Radar estimates up to 3.5"-4" in spots. This was before Round 2?

Well we didn't even get much rain lol

We bust.