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The secondary really never gets going so far on the models which makes this paltry on qpf and keeps the airmass marginal with that strong primary that far to the west.

It could be the rapid SST warming near Japan and acceleration of the Pacific Jet leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream tracks since 18-19.

Pre-storm obs: Brine trucks out in force on Georgetown Pike.

There's no way any model is going to get the extent of the initial warm nose correct. Total boom or bust for Richmond. I would hedge low on the 1-2 range south of 295 in Ric. Marginal events with no antecedent cold isn't the formula. This is a Fredericksburg to DC event. Maybe it comes in hot with a major thump. Never know.

I have covid so taking a break myself.

The NAO has is so nuanced...there are like 6 different calculations and the orientation/shape of the heights can have drastically different implications on the pattern. Good luck to anyone trying to soley utilize a numerical index derivative of it in a forecast.

Lane Johnson will be retiring in a year or two. Howie likes offensive lineman, that would be my guess for the first pick in the coming years. Birds really don't really need to replenish in many areas. They're young and good...

Yes! Swampdwelling snow weenies unite

Help with what? accumulations? Limiting factor is QPF, not cold. Maybe it helps marginally during light rates.

Or 1970 through 1999 LOL.

10" would feel like a HECS today

I was never buying it and if it did show .75 inches qpf over 24 hours I would think that a lot of that is lost to melting especially during the day time. I would much rather see .4 inches in a 6 hour period than .75 over 24 hours.

If Central Park somehow goes the rest of the winter without accumulating snow, the average snowfall for the time period of 2018/19 through this year would be 14.52857. The average snowfall for the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 was 21.90667. a 7.378095 difference.

Thursday looks meh.

What a beat down! No one saw that coming at all. You could tell it was over by half time. I mean KC just had no answer at all! That was the least stressful Eagles Super Bowl win I have ever seen! LOL

Weenies sometimes get confused and go to the wrong house.

I think mine was 0.7"

wpc/wu_wx

Where do I sign?

It's odd how the past week or so the ensembles have been dropping more snow than the operationals. I can't recall seeing that for such an extended period. It's usually the operationals dumping large amounts and the ensembles being poultry. I'm one confused weenie!

Pushing 2- 3 inches of liquid over the next seven days, a good majority of that now appears to come 2/14-2/16.

HRRR shows a burst of sleet/freezing rain for RDU Tuesday morning

I think it is called the Super Bowl hangover. LOL. I think 3-5" Tuesday/Wednesday isn't bad!

6z AI cut back even more on qpf. If it's closer to right than wrong, a whole lot of folks in MD will be unhappy. Some in this forum actually have a shot at doing better with round 2 than 1.