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Anchorage had its first measurable snowfall on record for October 1st. The last time Anchorage received a measurable snowfall on or before October 1st was September 29, 2015.

Fairbanks, AK saw the first measurable snow of the season September 30.

We need more Miller Cs! Apparently, those are Sandy-type systems. Hazel in 1954 and 1938 fall under that. However, I have been unable to confirm if "Miller C" is a thing officially, but these are unique -- those system that get a big boost from a TC phase and the TC itself gets the best of both worlds, derived energy from baroclinic and SSTs so they can remain atypical strong much farther N than you'd expect for a TC in our region. Sandy buried WV up to 36" and up to 48" in VT from the 1804 hurricane and Ginny in 1963 w/ 13" in ME. Double PT for @CoastalWx here!

One thing will be a little bit different this winter. Mayjawintastawm's least favorite model, the No-Accumulation-Model, will be retired this week and will be replaced by some version of the RRFS (not sure if it's the RRFS we're already seeing on the model web sites, or something else.) The NAM had a pretty bad track record for the Front Range winter storms for a while now.

Feb 1983 and March 1993 would disagree w/ you. I say we make a Miller "W" -- those storms that give the max S+ to w/in 5 mi of Weymouth only! Miller As can really tease the Mid-Atlantic weenies, esp. once you get S of DC proper. How many times does it show 20"+ for RIC, and it ends up 3-4" of IP? We don't have that high 1000-500 thk/very cold 850 issue "DA MIX" really in the NEUS.

There are variations of rainfall totals but looks like a good soaking this weekend. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

In the next week, given Rachel and Nolo will be around for some time, we should make it to #2 for most ACE in an E/CPAC season.

1983 was weak La Nina, so it shows the range here. El Nino is not required for a strongly suppressed Atlantic season. Given there are at least a dozen other oceanic/atmospheric oscillations going on globally at any one time, their phases and how they interact obviously are a factor. ENSO just is the most famous and the most influential globally it seems 1983 had one MH that hit HOU directly. One thing though that is consistent w/ suppressed seasons, the TCs, even the strong ones, are often quite small.

Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm days to mark the start of October. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. It will turn somewhat cooler during the weekend and a strong cold front will likely move across the region Sunday or Sunday night. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -19.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.121 today.

Not sure what's going on here in Buda, TX but this rain on the extreme back edge just keeps trying to backbuild. Light to moderate rain has started back up. Hmmmmm..... EDIT! OK, the rain is moving firmly east. The storm is over. Someone needs to get the Austin NWS off the crack-pipe and back to meteorology school because even I know this storm is OVER! The PWATS are down to 0.3, not 2.2, and the moisture is GONE already! This stuff is pure bullshyte! These Texas mets need to go back to school. I KNOW Buda weather. When the storm is over, the storm is OVER. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop tonight across the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. With the high PW airmass locally heavy rain will continue to be possible. I know where I live ---- One of the driest regions on the planet! I do NOT ever get my hopes up. No more rain for me tonight. Next rain chance is October 21. Till then warm and humid and superabundant sunshine!

You’ll love this then, one of the best fan rants Ive ever heard from a sox fan. Guy has real talent! Haha https://x.com/billsimmons/status/2105817661364125713?s=10

84 for the high today.

A bit OT, but the Maritime school I work for will likely be providing the required training for workers on offshore SMR platforms. Deploying Small Modular Reactors on floating barges allows operating companies to bypass land-use zoning restrictions and nuclear bans put in place by some states, but their position on off-shore floating platforms means all workers and vessel operations must comply with USCG requirements, and we provide training to meet those requirements.

Yea I have the solar and the heat pump too. It will still take a bite out of your energy bank lol

Over 3 inches now storm total. Around 11 inches over the past 4 weeks.

78 today

2016, 2021, 2022 and 2025 were hot summers.

Many el ninos in this list but the only hot summer years were 1991 and 1993 and 2010 and 2011. 1991 was exceptionally hot even with an el nino.

Thats why having solar panels is nice. I have an electric heater, so its free

In a funk since my Sox didn’t show up in the playoffs. An embarrassing effort. Felt like June todsy.

You guys need to forget the forecasts and remember some rules about fall and by extension winter weather in the northeast. It won't be completely sunny unless a cold front comes through. If it's going to be mild or even warm it will most likely be cloudy. 80 is low hanging fruit for early October it can be 80 right now with cloudy skies. That said a few peaks of sunshine are definitely possible even when it's warm just dont expect wall to wall sunshine. But our usual fall pattern is mild or warm and cloudy/rainy and sunny and cool to cold. We'll have sunny and cool weather Saturday and again next week. But remember that mild or warm and cloudy/rainy and sunny and cool/cold pattern because that will repeat itself ad infinitum from now through the winter. Dont expect wall to wall sunshine until a cold front passes through.

Offshore SMRs on barges to power data centers. Waste heat rejection. We so smart.

Today;s Highs: Great day TEB: 83 PHL: 83 BLM: 82 ACY: 82 EWR: 81 New Brnswck: 80 TTN: 79 LGA: 78 NYC: 76 ISP: 74 JFK: 73