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all good, should i use 0.3 (0.25 rounded) for your total? and where abouts are you in tolland (miles from center) i used 8 (Greenfield COOP) and 6.5 respectively for those. Hard to fit everything in but they were in the >6" range

Seems we have seen this movie many times over the last few years with these weak systems. They seem to trend a bit north as we get closer. There isn’t a ton of upside, it’s not gonna magically juice up, best case is areas in the skunk zone get a coating and that 1-2 inch expands a bit. Will be interesting to see if this scenario plays out again this time. Maybe the models have been having trouble resolving the cold and dry air to the north at range, maybe a data sampling thing…maybe aliens.

Could be but I went thru Vernon yesterday and there wasn’t close to an inch . Again no biggie

Thanks, Don. Just to make sure there’s no confusion of the viewers, these ERA-5 values do not match the BoM RMM values. So, they aren’t substitutes for each other as they’re not the same way of tracking the MJO. Examples: - The end of the ERS-5 is on 8/31/2023. Here are the values on 8/25-31/2023 from both the ERA-5 and the BoM RMM: 8/25: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 1.1 amp 8/25: BoM is in ph 8 at 0.84 amp 8/26: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 1.06 amp 8/26: BoM is in ph 8 at 0.85 amp 8/27: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.97 amp 8/27: BoM is in ph 1 at 0.64 amp 8/28: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.83 amp 8/28: BoM is in ph 2 at 0.46 amp 8/29: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.66 amp 8/29: BoM is in ph 2 at 0.27 amp 8/30: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.46 amp 8/30: BoM is in ph 3 at 0.28 amp 8/31: ERA-5 is in ph 7 at 0.24 amp 8/31: BoM is in ph 3 at 0.26 amp ERA-5 MJO 1/2/1940-8/31/2023 https://www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex/omi.era5.1x.webpage.4023.txt BoM RMM MJO 6/1/1974-present https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

1.3" is for Vernon, there were no reports i saw from Tolland. The 1.3" vernon report was to your WSW and there was another report from Bolton of 1" south of that. There was a very sharp cut off as you can see from Somers 1.9" to Staffordville 0.3" There was several hundred reports to go through i can't exactly verify every single one and based on the surrounding reports it looked reasonable gotcha thats the only report i saw from Thomaston. Thomaston Dam COOP

One of my favorite memories, especially as we were destined to pick up 28 inches a few days after.

Do I have a high enough post count yet to say that I like the way the 500mb charts look on various ensembles for the 10th-13th period? Or do I still have no idea what I'm doing? That period looks like it could make frozen precip happen and I like how it aligns with being in the blue on the CPC 8-14 temp charts.

One good part about this pattern is that it looks very active in the flow. Sometimes we’ll get cold patterns and then have to wait days and days to see even a decent shortwave show up in the flow but this is not one of those looks. It doesn’t mean we get buried but you always want to increase your odds. Getting a bit out in clown range, but it looks active even after any potential reload mid-month.

Can see it being like Dec 24 or Jan 25. Below normal temps but we get all our precip from the odd cutter / coastal hugger when the cold pattern relaxes.

March 21-22, 2013. Local jackpot over a foot near Acushnet/Fairhaven/Mattapoisett but I think your old place in Wareham had at least 8-10”? If not more. That was a real good one. Very intense where it happened. I remember tracking that one late evening on the 21st. I’m sure we could find the thread.

Yes .. that had to be it . Both were in December . I was in drivers Ed and had a class that night . It was a late afternoon into night event so that would have made me 16. We had a solid 6” in that one . The other one would have been in the early /mid 90’s

Not reading 8 pages. WBAL has me getting a dusting

10 feet of sand on the main north south road

One of them was Dec 13, 1988….i remember I thought how lucky we were to get 1-2” but it turned out just west of ORH about 3 towns over had 6”. That would’ve extended down to your area.

A workaround for calculating means with traces is to find the sum, and divide it by the number of years. (not =AVERAGE(A1:A30) but =SUM(A1:A30)/30 (for 30 years). Easy peasy. Disclaimer, my excel program is 2007 vintage, and they may have "improved" that procedure out of existence. But I can add columns where I cannot average them. Also if you wanted to know how many traces there were in 156 years or however many, the procedure there is =COUNTIF(A1:A156,"T") (just saying A because I am Canadian, your data may be in column USA). Free laffs with this stats lesson. I used "T" in my example and not "Tr" or "trace" but use whatever form your traces actually show up, I have NYC data with T and Toronto data with Tr ... and I found that on average about 20 to 25 per cent of days have a trace report.

I would definitely say less than 3. There’s almost no reason to bet against below average snow and warmer temperatures for these parts now. The warmer temperature is one won’t verify for December, but I am sure the below average snowfall will.

I would think since we are so close to the event... tonight's models should tell the tale!

I remember that for sure. Epic.

Seems like with the 18z runs we finally have some consensus, it’s just consensus on dusting-1” for the majority of us instead of the 1-3” we were hoping for. That shortwave is trending stronger so maybe we can juice this up some more. Or rely on 20:1 ratios??

Short pump got y’all worked up in here

I think 4” here . It was very unforcast

UMD math grad here…some of those early courses were straight up weed out classes. I think I spent 20 hrs a week in cmsc106 lol. Kinda wish I kept all my textbooks to check out from time to time. Number theory was cool.

Yea. Those don’t happen anymore in the winter though. Only summeh.

I'm going to try and make it, but it's the start of our basketball season and have four games that day, hopefully I can skip out. always wanted to get to one, and meet some of the faces I've been interacting with since the Eastern days honestly. what's that like 20+ years?

Didn’t have to take that in undergrad, but I did scrape by taking 3 semesters of physics. Those were not ones you want to fall behind on.