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Ratios will be high if temps are in the 20s. Thats what he is going with. I like 3-6 for NYC but I can easily see more with the banding. Lets see where we are at tomorrow.

He's in a far worse spot than CT is, even though he's not that far away in the whole scheme of things. Small changes can work for CT. They need something bigger. And the trends aren't linear as you know. We can trend wonderfully today and lose all the gains tomorrow.

Low of 33 and .3” of snow off of .11” qpf. All I’m asking for Christmas is an inch or two of white followed by a sleet bomb. What a glorious mess that would be.

I thought maybe it was a cod thing and still some errors with sounding generation but even down into NJ/E PA...those soundings are horrific looking. Thats some serious dry air punching in aloft. I was really shocked seeing the DGZ so high too but makes since because there is a deep warming layer from 850-750. But looking deeper I see why the Winter Storm Watches are where they are. The swath of heaviest snow is going to be tied right into the axis of strongest WAA which is going to be quite a bit away to our southwest. We still should get some light snow into SW CT I think...I was thinking there could be potential for several inches of snow there but may have to rethink to maybe only a couple inches possible.

Our whole neighborhood is doing luminaries this year. Going to be a pain if this wind keeps up

You thinking the mesos are trying to key in on a last minute Mid Altantic victory?

Yep. Blows.

Looks like 5.5" will do it. That includes the .5" or so from the Monday snow. A little bit of an over performer.

Welcome to my teenage years…they’re back. This happened constantly back then. It Sucked.

Was zoning out last night and put on Fox Weather. For years, I’d just zone out with TWC. It’s not bad and better than When Alligators Attack or Ice Road Bandits or whatever series TWC pushes in prime time nowadays. .

I think 6" is the ceiling with this event around here. We're not getting 1" of liquid out of this and ratio's are not going to turn .5" liquid into 10" of snow. And that assumes there is no mixing or taint. Just don't see more than 6" from this as a top number.

I Understand. But here’s my take…modeling has been abysmal, so it bears watching. And to follow up Bobs shit streak post…that’s more like a shit dam up there.

Not even a fun hobby anymore. No matter the look, we know it won’t snow

Yeah, I mentioned yesterday. This will ruin this event, but the confluence will retreat at lightning speed for our next Rainer, which is exactly how it’s going to play out

42 and howling winds... Again. Really sick of these winds.

It's tough living in Manhattan when it comes to accumulating snow but one thing that can overcome that with BL temps is rates. Hoping something like this verifies.

SR reporting 10"

CTP recorded .3” of snow yesterday bringing the seasonal total to date to 5.0” ,which is 1.0 above normal season to date.

Nice, saw the mountain reporting around the same.

CTP’s thoughts on Friday. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The weather looks largely benign for the rest of Christmas Day with cloudy skies, WNW breeze and max temps +5-10F above the historical average. High pressure ridge drifts over CPA Thursday night bringing some clearing and colder min temps in the 15-25F range. The sfc ridge and cold air wedge channels down the east side of the Appalachians by Friday morning - setting the stage for a classic CAD "overrunning" post-Christmas wintry mix event. Strong warm air advection, isentropic lift, and healthy mid-to- upper level ascent (ahead of sfc low tracking from IA/IL border eastward to western PA btwn 12-24Z Friday) will send anomalous moisture plume into a cold and dry boundary layer (sub-freezing wet bulb temperatures at the surface). This will allow for an icy mix of sleet/freezing rain over the southwest 1/3 of the CWA. The best ice signal >0.25" is over the Laurel Highlands. Farther to the northeast where cold layer is gradually deeper, snow/sleet/zr transition is forecast. A deep cold layer below the elevated warm nose could favor the majority of precip falling as sleet over the interior central ridge and valley region where WPC WWD shows a broad area of 0.50"+ of sleet accumulation. Precip should stay snow the longest over the northeast periphery of the CWA with perhaps up to 4-6" in the eastern portions of Tioga/Sullivan/Columbia/Schuylkill Cos. There remains ongoing fluctuations in the forecast track which could result in additional changes to which areas see the most snow and ice. That being said, we have high confidence in an impactful post-Christmas winter wx event. We issued a winter storm watch for the entire CWA with an emphasis on hazardous travel impacts

Based on your and Don’s reliable snowy La Niña Dec indicator, I’ve already predicted a near to above avg Jan+ NYC snowfall of 21”+, which probably would very likely mean a seasonal total of 30”+. We’ll see if it works once again.

Its just above me but its stiil -SN

I think we probably are mostly snow up here, but it looks like a light to moderate event

True, however when comparing say the 1980s snowfall to today for CPK, we have to add a caveat that the HEI has a greater influence than before. For me personally, I was comparing 1970 through 1999 CPK yearly snowfall to the period commencing 2018/2019 to today. I feel I can no longer do so as any drop in average would be mainly due to the increasing HIE.