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I don't disagree that it could be viable, especially if strong blocking were to develop. I was just referring to the entire period. I think a back-loaded scenario is plausible. So is a one notable storm-type idea.

Yeah the timing really sucks -- clear skies today but clouds come in tonight. We have a problem with the wildfire smoke right now too, but I see HRRR has it clearing out just in time for the meteor shower tonight. So we'll have to see what happens with the showers/storms for overnight tonight. Hopefully there will be a period or two in which it's just partly cloudy instead of mostly cloudy so we can see some meteors here tonight. I wish you good luck in seeing some tonight. It is frustrating that we have the clouds to deal with tonight because the same thing happened on the peak night of the Geminid meteor shower in December, which of course is the other big meteor shower. It's frustrating when we have little to no moon interference for viewing but clouds mess it up. Bad luck with these meteor showers lately.

1.2 total here. Just when I think it's going to dry out, the storms return

C Joe Bastardi calls them “ham sandwiches” . Well, Cristobal is the latest ham sandwich.

Impressive winds in Watseka

Yeah I woke up and thought what?? Big MCS over by Chicago and FFE down south. Chicago wave according to SPC should turn south but we'll see. Warned for 60 right now.

It implies a negative AO winter in the mean for the coming season.

Ended up with .5 from yesterday afternoon, and another .4 late last night. So .9 total on a day that I started with not even a chance showing in my forecast. And this was after days of missed chances with very little to show. I think that is part of what makes weather fun.

I think 2010 is a perfectly viable analog for the second half....there seems to be this misconception that you can't include an analog in the composite unless you feel like the coming season will be a replica of it. Good luck operating like that because it's a pretty exclusive methodology.

Surprisingly badass looking as it rolls through, in places the scud is nearly touching the ground

I call them emotional support named storms.

50mb to 1948, too. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.50mb.data

I have QBO data to 1948 at the page I use.

Seems a majority of guidance wants to bring some decaying showers/storms through the metro area after sunset towards midnight.

12z guidance says we'll be on this train into the weekend

DEN has yet to record measurable rainfall in August, after July finished well below normal. Definitely due for a couple soakers.

Really dire situation in southeast Indiana, looks like they could stack another 3-5" on top of this.

August 12 2000: Record-setting dew points develop in Minnesota. The Twin Cities have a dew point of 76, with a rare dew point of 80 at Faribault. 1821: An eight-day heat wave ends at Ft. Snelling. Temperatures were in the 90's each day. For Wednesday, August 12, 2026 1752 - The following is from the Journals of the Rev. Thomas Smith, and the Rev. Samuel Deane, published in 1849. “In the evening there was dismal thunder and lightning, and abundance of rain, and such a hurricane as was never the like in these parts of the world.” This hurricane struck Portland, Maine. 1778 - A Rhode Island hurricane prevented an impending British-French sea battle, and caused extensive damage over southeast New England. (David Ludlum) 1933 - The temperature at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, CA, hit 127 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of August. (The Weather Channel) 1936 - The temperature at Seymour, TX, hit 120 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1955 - During the second week of August hurricanes Connie and Diane produced as much as 19 inches of rain in the northeastern U.S. forcing rivers from Virginia to Massachusetts into a high flood. Westfield MA was deluged with 18.15 inches of rain in 24 hours, and at Woonsocket RI the Blackstone River swelled from seventy feet in width to a mile and a half. Connecticut and the Delaware Valley were hardest hit. Total damage in New England was 800 million dollars, and flooding claimed 187 lives. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Early afternoon thunderstorms in Arizona produced 3.90 inches of rain in ninety minutes at Walnut National Monument (located east of Flagstaff), along with three inches of pea size hail, which had to be plowed off the roads. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Fifteen cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Youngstown OH reported twenty-six days of 90 degree weather for the year, a total equal to that for the entire decade of the 1970s. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms were scattered across nearly every state in the Union by late in the day. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Fergus Falls MN, and golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph at Black Creek WI. In the Chicago area, seven persons at a forest preserve in North Riverside were injured by lightning. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2004 - Hurricane Charley was the third named storm and the second hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season. Charley lasted from August 9 to August 15, and at its peak intensity, it attained 150 mph winds, making it a strong Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It made landfall in southwestern Florida at maximum strength, making it the most powerful hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Andrew struck Florida in 1992. 2005 - A tornado strikes Wright, Wyoming, a coal-mining community, killing two and destroying 91 homes and damaging about 30 more in around the town. Observances: 12 Wed National Vinyl Record Day 12 Wed International Youth Day 12 Wed Middle Child Day 12 Wed World Elephant Day 12 Wed IBM PC Day 12 Wed Milkman Day 12 Wed National Gooey Butter Cake Day 12 Wed National Julienne Fries Day

200 tornadoes, 200 inches of snow next

Snuck in on a few drops. #blessed

mby snuck in on the warning, i'll count it but not expecting much here other than a low end shelf

Heather Hill is example one. Essentially dirt.

Maple gate is going to be a solar farm. They sold it for 24 million. That would be a lot of green fees

Not at home today :-/