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Still below normal temps through mid January, don't lose hope. After the 3rd week though? It might be over for any snow chances for most of us.

Next week looks to be a little below average for area. Highs in the lower 40’s and lows in the lower 20’s. .

Ugh...Voyager rant here, but I'm so tired of being too far north, south, or west in these snow events. If we (I) can't get a good, solid high end advisory event, than I'd just as soon smoke cirrus.

I was just coming to ask where the cold air has gone? We went from historic/pipe bursting, to long-sustained cold to… marginal at best?

12° with cloudy skies and flurries this morning in Wolf. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

6z euro is weaker and south.... yuck

Nothing going on here. We had about an inch overnight. Currently cloudy, blustery, and 28.8 degrees

Sygyzy storm…that was one of the few great ones in the 1980s. Jan 9187 was actually an epic month at ORH. Almost 50” of snow that month. That decade did have some good November and spring storms as well (April ‘82, 3/29/84, 4/28/87).

Highest gust on home Davis was 24mph @ 535am.... just get the ground frozen, over 1.25" of rain over the last week, suck winter continues.

Models have lost the cold air. Ingredient 1 has disappeared

6Z Euro, Icon and GFS snow maps. Euro was a grab from MA(WB) and is 10:1... and includes tomorrow

Looks like we’re getting the worst possible outcome from this pattern. No snowpack midwinter and cold and dry. the nice thing about life is that everything is always changing.

6z euro ens about the same as 0z just a bit drier over all the but the axis stays in same spot.

The run to run variations on the storm track we are seeing on guidance are pretty minor, but for those on the N or S edge it can make a big difference. The primary feature to watch is the piece of vorticity rotating down in southern Canada overtop our approaching shortwave. Some runs it digs a bit more, or comes in right on top or out in front/just behind. The timing and degree of interaction between that energy and our storm will influence the exact track.

Dry and cold Buckle up

I used to cry to my parents out of complete and total frustration growing up in the 80’s. “How can it be so cold and as soon as we get a storm it warms up?!?!?” I’m welling up over here, lol

Lot to complain about with 80s winters but man we did have a couple of epic storms.

Probably have a couple more days to see any north bumps. I'm hoping we can score a light event at least.

Not for nothing but I would keep an eye open for a sqaull tomorrow. Looks like enough to coat the roads.

To illustrate my point about discontinuity... BOM total qpf and snowfall differ next 5 days - see below. As does the WPC qpf and chance of 1/4" frozen qpf. We're on the edge and I too worry about dry air eating up the northern fringe. Click for clarity.

@Chris78 if the models then north at 12Z today we may have to bump up our hopes down here a bit but still seeing some suites showing precip dying off as the transfer happens so not sold on going to 4-6 yet. First things first, do we get 1-3" Friday? That would be a surprise bonus. Check out the HRRR strafing a lot of this forum as that piece of energy starts to form a bit making what appears to be a mini CCB.

I want to see more pronounced bumps N for me to really jump in for this threat at least along I-80 which includes NYC/LI. The northern edge of these are sometimes overdone because dry air will eat at the precip as it tries to come north. So I really want to see some of these models get good snow into the Hudson Valley and CT. And if the models start to back away that’s obviously bad too. The wave will also likely be weakening as it comes east and battles the 50-50 low and confluence. I think it’s still less than 50% chance our subforum sees anything decent, and in actuality probably nothing given the N edge will likely be sharp because of the dry air issues.

Yeah. I like being in the middle of the model wiggles so far. GFS norther, Euro South...gives me some wiggle room down here, altho we know the favored areas are going to score regardless of what the models show.

This also puts central VA in a better spot. Should make some folks happy

Oz euro 10:1 and 6z gfs kuchera