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https://x.com/bennollweather/status/2112536814758121610?s=46 warmest subsurface in east pacific is up to 92 F where its 12c above normal. Crazy

Exactly. And remember departures are relative to average. The averages are way colder than the east coast. It can be in the + double digits and snow mid winter.

Even the ending of 00-01, with the March snowstorm bust, soured that season. But after 01-02 came one of the best 3-year stretches ever... 1997-98 super el nino was followed by 1998-2000 strong la nina. The 2nd year of the strong la nina (1999-2000) had a good few week stretch in January.

He is still a very good forecaster, he just cares about making as much money as possible. You can't blame him.

I legit feel bad for you guys. I mean just when it looked like things are falling into place...I mean y'all finally got rid of Snyder, then it looks like you finally got a franchise QB when he leads ya to the NFCCG...and then it starts to turning to crap again. Goodness gracious, smh

That's the thing...only need 24 hours-

ENSO isn't alone in that respect...watch the impact of that gradient between the boiling Kuroshio current and the Kona low west Hawaii and how it may impact the north Pacific along about mid season, which may constructively interfere with other high latitude blocking downstream over NA.

Love the BV camera view. I think the red brick building in the foreground is a great place to eat but I don't know if it's that block or the one just to the right (north).

2nd worst winter ever in my location in NJ outside of the NYC. 5.5" 01-02 was the worst with 4". 96-97 - 01-02 was the worst 6 year stretch for me. 00-01 was good, but the others were all bad, all different enso's

i want someone to tell me how we manage to stay cold enough long enough for a snowstorm to happen on the east coast

I have to disagree. I was just saying to my daughter that this year's colors have been much more vibrant in the last few years. I think it's looking fantastic.

It depends on the place. 2012 was the only real widespread cancellation. 2011 and 2020 some places had, but there were cancellations. Also, remember that 2011 was on a weeknight (Monday) and 2020 on a weekend (Saturday). In my place, 2011 was cancelled, but 2020 went on (albeit a much lower turnout).

39 for low KempMill and 34 Frederick

That's impossible. I mean there's a chance the east coast could be shut out like 97-98, but the upper Midwest?..You'll get snow just by lake effect

Today’s GEFS NAO forecast is even more positive than yesterdays, which itself was much more + than last week’s GEFS: Today: gets down to only -0.6 and then quickly rises to +0.5 followed by drop back to 0: Yesterday: Last week:

Majority of forecasts have the Midwest being thr warmest but to say no snow for the Midwest or great lakes is insane.

Are you honestly proposing that objectivity is mutually exclusive with information and opinions?

According to the troll cult, no measurable snow for me this winter. By comparison, Detroit averages 37 days per season with measurable snowfall and in 152 years of record, the least was 15 days (1889-90). I assume this means you shall sprout palm trees by March. Can't wait til verification time!

Looks like as we head into late October the expression of ENSO becomes more of split North Pacific low between the Bering Sea and Southern California. It will be interesting to see if these centers can eventually merge into one giant low as we head into November and December. If some semblance of a split remains, then it would be indicative of the background 500mb pattern which has been keeping the PDO negative instead of leading to a +2.00 PDO.

Finally a recurve! Big one too - 180 mph Supertyphoon Champi

It’s a good foliage season in Newark this year

agreed... I mean probably - Here's the thing ( though ) ENSO may not be effective in the hemispheric pattern modulation until the seasonal gradient steepens enough to trigger that forcing. I've explained this in the past ...whether necessary to do so or not ( hey, that's how I roll! ), that it's not enough merely having these teleconnectors on the map. They need to be effective, more importantly ...how to know when/if that is the case. The way they become effecting is through gradient. That is the metric that decides. It goes back to fundamental physics. IF A > B, A --> B That's how all nature works. Period. If that one fundamental universal aspect were not always the case in the cosmological perpetuity and infinity there would be no restoring force anywhere, and everything would stop. A must be greater than B, in order for that action of A on B to take place. So why that is important here. The amount of A had to be significant (enough) bigger than B (gradient) before the "-->" starts happening. Synergy explodes out of "-->" This, to the clever reader, is why RONI is both very necessary and works. Because B is climate change and it is a +D(B) factor. So.. the A growth has to grow even more to trigger the same "-->" Can't be explained any easier... This ENSO is certainly a warm pig, but .. the world is a bigger warm hog right now. So, as eye-popping as this El Nino is, it is not entirely clear that it is operating/forcing on the system yet due to this over all arithmetic. And so if it is not yet doing so, there is no synergy. The synergy would be later on when seasonal/hemispheric gradient gets sufficient and ubiquitous.