All Activity

Yep this week will be a dud most likely. GFS is a garbage model.

Yeah. We're not really setting ourselves up for tapping as much moisture as we could be for storms this time of year. The unusual part of this pattern is really the ridge over the PacNW. I don't recall seeing a 588dm high over Nor-Cal this time of year. We're just seeing the downstream effects of that which includes cold air intrusions coming straight south from Hudson Bay.

Yeah I understand that...but what he was saying about the issue of moisture though...it seems like guidance is all dry despite improving at H5.

The Euro was a huge step towards the older GFS runs. It was a pleasure to PBP for y'all. Good night!

Definitely improved from 12z and as Tellico noted, it actually stepped towards the GFS.

Pops too late for most of us on the Euro. Eastern mountains and SW Va make out though.

Looks like euro tried to step toward GFS...just a little too far north with the lee side

The Euro is maybe a little better with the first wave than 12z so far. Nothing like the GFS with that Lee side low it pops and bombs us, at least not yet. Still rolling.

Best precip field won't be nailed 4+ days out in any storm.

A met in my sub had an idea:

The gfs showed the upside potential of this storm so no

NVM all of the other idiosyncrasies that are holding this back, I never like seeing a deep closed low over upstate Carolina.....nothing good comes from that for NE. Upside is a sloppy seconds, off of the tree, off of the car, off of the woodpecker's head, off of the neighbor's dong, nothing but net.-type of moderate event. I get it...everyone is desperate....it's like when I was in the Marine Corps and we'd lock eyes with a moderately weathered (no pun intended), redheaded chick missing a boob in a jack shack off of Camp Lejune. This is the type of evolution that you staggered towards at last call when the lights turn on to reveal that you're still by yourself. Just set expectations accordingly for this first wave. It sucks-

Looks like someone put a heavy caking of window spray snow on everything outside. Nice evening.

Hm...so are we kinda looking at a ceiling of the moisture potential with this one in general? And secondly...how unusual is this?

At this point, it’s just another solution.

0z Euro not bad. I believe it's 1-3", maybe 2-4"? Edit: south of DC is jackzone, about 3-6" there. DC gets around 1-3", Baltimore C-1". Subject to change as this is based purely off temps and precipitation maps

Did it pull an icon or something? As long as h5 looks good we can all take a long shower so it has some moisture to work with.

Regarding the moisture issue: Yeah, that's not going away. The positive tilt of the trough at H7 and H85 ahead (1) of the synoptics getting in line for us is not great for folding the sub-tropical air back up into our area (2). The leading s/w that kicks out from the sub-tropical jet (3) is a kick in the pants.

But if it follows other guidance...watch it be dry at the surface, lol

nice change

Yea, night and day

this somehow produces like 3-6” of snow. how do you even make this up

hell i'll even say 0z euro is better than the 0z GFS at h5

And I’m explaining to you that there was no lack of precip today.