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Grabbed an 1” out of that band; rates are lighter now.

Is that for E MA primarily?

Drive a mile south and youll see it isnt nonsense at all

This is definitely the most torturous type of storm. In between the initial fronto and an inverted trof with warm lower levels and shit snow growth. Tough solution.

HRRR is lost on this as with other guidance. Earlier runs have me with 0.0" of snow at 9am, yet I have 1.3"

Yeah thats pretty rough by them unfortunately. If we can stay in light to moderate until 11 or so like some of the mesos show even in rockland we’re gonna be above 3”. Its borderline right now depending on where the subsidence stays.

Aligns with Bam’s original forecast for the period into and after new years. He’s now saying Jan 7th is a date that needs to be circled on the east coast.

Nonsense I'm in mt vernon I border the bronx heavy snow now sticking in the daylight on all surfaces about an inch on the colder surfaces

Its been awful up here, That's why i don't place much stock in other then a mention.

Everyone must be at the mall picking up last minute Christmas gifts lol

Looking at radar, could be some 6-8" totals in NEPA and maybe stretching into extreme NNJ and W Orange County. Parts of Rockland and Westchester could get 3-4" if banding holds together. Pretty well advertised actually. NAM was too dry.

No advisory here for the last event when most received 3-5". This county sits in between 4 different NWS offices. I usually peak at all to get an idea of their thinking

Maybe it’s just me..but the HRRR hasn’t been very good imo around here. Thing jumps all over the place.

Two nights ago WPC snow probs for 2" accumulation had Nyack at 2% chance and Middletown at 20%. I said at the time they were low. I have no idea what they were looking at/using. Those are not mountainous regions. This was not a last minute shift or some kind of big surprise.

3k NAM being pretty healthy too gives some hope though that the 12k isn’t on crack. Both NAMs show the initial WAA dying out midday east of ORH, but it regenerates a very healthy precip shield as the forcing from the northwest (that gives NNE most of their snow outside the norlun) punches in. So if they are right, we’d see a lot of blossoming precip on radar this afternoon. Esp after about 2-3pm.

It is a pretty exotic blocking regime. Over recent seasons we’ve seen general attenuation of modeled features on the map within 48 hours of verification time, and that isn’t just limited to low pressure. The shredder will hold, but recent modeling biases *may* indicate that it is overmodeled

Cloudy, few breaks, 30F

Given the strength of the block it might end up being that way (shredded)

yeah, looks absolutely nothing like the 12Z HRRR

This is where experience and gut comes in. Youre not gonna get accumulations in the day, concrete jungle with temps in the mid/upper 30s from a warm front. People push narratives on here, but the weather always shakes out factually

34F looks to be winding down out here, just drizzle and flurries now .5” looks to be it. No record breakers but it’s been a cold somewhat snowy December with this being our 4th snowfall and maybe another chance Friday into Saturday.

Not sold yet though. Hrrr still hideous. Rap still hideous.

Subsidence in eastern Orange and Putnam Counties from the heavy band to the south and some downsloping off the escarpment. Meso models also showed this effect.

The numbers are probably too borderline for a Winter Storm Warning down here in the valley (the most recent update is more like accumulations of 5-8" without yesterday afternoon's snow included), but this is often the way they do it when the more substantial accumulations are localized right along the spine – it’s too small a geographic area to focus the alert.

But about 1/2 inch of salt on the roads!