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He doesn’t know what he is talking about either. All the CONFIRMED torch talk last week by him…and we haven’t seen it. Although that is very typical.

Compared to the South, sure we do winter well but just speaking in terms of an average winter, we are nothing special versus the interior West, northern Plains, upper-Midwest. Outside of higher elevations and northern New England (because of latitude) our average winter isn't wild...what around 30" towards the coast (probably even a bit less) and upwards of 35-50" across the interior? What is the most common snow storm for the region...3-6" 4-8"? That's probably not much different than these other areas and those other areas...get true blizzards. There's no doubt winter storms trump other weather phenomena here, but they are still relatively meh compared to other regions of the country. But this is just looking at severity of weather elements. If we want to talk societal impact that's a different argument.

Again, we do winter pretty well…but we’ve been in a slump. But that will change. We had high end event, after high end event for quite a long time in the winter for a long stretch…we were due for a big slump. And we’ve had it. So now I think we’ll start to recover.

Somebody needs to introduce this dude to the concept of the paragraph.

Last years enso signal was very similar to what is forecast this winter at -.6 My previous 7 year average snowfall was 15 inches last year. I broke it last winter with 18 inches. You take what you get, smile and be happy. I totally agree with you.

That's the thing...we really don't do high end wx in the Northeast well at all and the return time between high end weather is quite long. This includes severe weather, tropical, and yes this includes winter weather too. Outside of the Southwest, IMO we are the most mundane country in the region. I'd even put the Northwest slightly above us because Fall/Winter/Spring they can get some high impact storms with high winds, widespread power outages, the significant mountain snows which causes closures of travel passes and stretches of highways. Sure out of these, the return rate of snowstorms > 12" over a widespread area is much higher, but at the end of the day, our winter storms aren't extremely impactful. How often do you see stretches of 84, 91, 95, etc close during the winter storm? Go into the central Plains, northern Plains, Northwest...you can getmultiplel hundred mile stretches of closures along I-80, I-90, I-94, I-25, etc. If you take the intensity of weather elements we receive here and compare to other regions...the extent of the severity we see is pretty meh compared to anywhere else.

GEFS has been trending the right way with this first cool shot. Fingers crossed this is a sign of things to come?

Yes, down here there was

Yeah and again…don’t want to make too much of it right now, but even that coastal in October was a pretty meh dual low mess. I get why people are cautiously optimistic about winter but the raging PAC jet interfering in the development of proper coastal and placement of important features is something to watch, I think. I’m being a little colorful, because we can do various types of high end wx, but the return time and regional scale vary.

Looks about right

This about right for timing? 9-11 showers/ storms 12-5 AM Big rips ?

47 here. A real beaut.

HRRR showing some signs of convective gusts on the front. May have to watch that.

Thanks, been looking for failure modes. If this strong -IOD collapses in the next 1-2 mo and we end up with this kind of DJF pattern in the NPac, both of those are typically Nino harbingers:

I am really curious to see what moves through this evening (this would be fore Mass though and far northeast CT) in terms of a low topped line. There are some subtle hints at some very weak instability along/just ahead of the line as 500mb temperatures quickly cool and lapse rates steepen.

We have had that multiple times and still failed. We had them in a Nina and a Nino. The Pac is really King. Many great mets were humbled when the pattern screamed HECS and nothing happened, not even a SECS. However, lets get the cold first and see what happens.

With snow cover in the foothills and higher elevations, most models(not the GFS) have temps 25 to almost 40 degrees below normal on those days.

The Euro is a bit deeper with this. The GFS deterministic is still further north but trending south. Interestingly, the GEFS lockstep with the Euro. Either way, this is a quick cold shot which means business. If the winter remembers what happens in November, we should see this reoccur.

Actually getting pretty breezy now here..

Made it to 68

No I'm not close the blinds like in a "dumpster fire" kind of way. Just more in a not expecting something different from what we've seen in a decade kind of way. Like basically the max for this setup (and winter) is advisory-level scenery snow--which is still nice to look at, mind you. I would just love to see a -AO/-NAO pattern in a more favorable regime to finally break the snow drought.

WCSH6 and WGME13?

The 12z Euro is leading the way on this 9-10th system. I can't say that gives me a lot of comfort as I have grown to trust the GFS in handling systems a bit better over the SE. I would guess this might amp up as we get closer and IF the system continues to create this type of energy in the lee of the Apps.

Here is the full MU Winter Forecast: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/winter_outlook_2026.php

Not sure if we watch the same channels we get two news channels from Portland.