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The ignore function helps but sure would help more if people stopped replying to Ji

Golden years my ass lol

Just got in from a walk......temp is 24.*, but it has a feel of March out there.

They rushed the pattern change. The pattern will become colder around 1/11 no doubt. But the thaw is very powerful and very warm and it’ll take significant cold to make these areas below normal temps for January. Cold is only one step towards creating snow chances. Still nothing to look forward to on the horizon

Finally, since its a slow wx news day, here is how my backyard fared in every NESIS event since 1/1/1996 as listed at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis Rank Start End NESIS Cat Description Smithtown Snowfall 2 1/6/1996 1/8/1996 11.78 5 Extreme 22.3 59 3/31/1997 4/1/1997 2.29 1 Notable 3.0 56 1/24/2000 1/26/2000 2.52 2 Significant 5.3 58 12/30/2000 12/31/2000 2.37 1 Notable 11.0 87 1/19/2001 1/21/2001 1.12 1 Notable 4.0 57 1/2/2003 1/5/2003 2.49 1 Notable 2.2 82 2/6/2003 2/8/2003 1.3 1 Notable 6.8 6 2/15/2003 2/18/2003 7.5 4 Crippling 18.8 75 3/3/2003 3/6/2003 1.54 1 Notable 5.7 51 12/14/2003 12/16/2003 2.77 2 Significant 4.9 63 1/27/2004 1/28/2004 2.03 1 Notable 13.5 9 1/21/2005 1/24/2005 6.8 4 Crippling 14.4 50 2/28/2005 3/2/2005 2.84 2 Significant 7.2 34 2/12/2006 2/13/2006 4.1 3 Major 13.3 16 2/12/2007 2/15/2007 5.63 3 Major 1.3 54 3/15/2007 3/18/2007 2.54 2 Significant 4.8 85 12/19/2008 12/20/2008 1.25 1 Notable 7.3 80 1/17/2009 1/19/2009 1.32 1 Notable 3.1 73 3/1/2009 3/3/2009 1.59 1 Notable 11.5 37 12/18/2009 12/21/2009 3.99 2 Significant 17.0 69 1/29/2010 1/30/2010 1.66 1 Notable 0.0 30 2/4/2010 2/7/2010 4.38 3 Major Trace 33 2/9/2010 2/11/2010 4.1 3 Major 14.5 17 2/23/2010 2/28/2010 5.46 3 Major 12.1 26 12/24/2010 12/28/2010 4.92 3 Major 12.0 21 1/9/2011 1/13/2011 5.31 3 Major 15.8 61 1/26/2011 1/27/2011 2.17 1 Notable 14.5 22 2/1/2011 2/3/2011 5.3 3 Major 0.8 66 10/29/2011 10/30/2011 1.75 1 Notable Trace 31 2/7/2013 2/10/2013 4.35 3 Major 27.0 48 3/4/2013 3/9/2013 3.05 2 Significant 6.9 49 12/13/2013 12/16/2013 2.95 2 Significant 4.2 45 12/30/2013 1/3/2014 3.31 2 Significant 8.5 84 1/20/2014 1/22/2014 1.26 1 Notable 9.0 35 1/29/2014 2/4/2014 4.08 3 Major 8.8 44 2/4/2014 2/5/2014 3.34 2 Significant 3.1 23 2/11/2014 2/14/2014 5.28 3 Major 13.5 74 11/26/2014 11/28/2014 1.56 1 Notable Trace 76 12/9/2014 12/14/2014 1.49 1 Notable 1.4 53 1/25/2015 1/28/2015 2.62 2 Significant 15.0 18 1/29/2015 2/3/2015 5.42 3 Major 8.3 79 2/8/2015 2/10/2015 1.32 1 Notable 0.3 81 2/20/2015 2/22/2015 1.31 1 Notable 4.4 68 3/3/2015 3/5/2015 1.66 1 Notable 6.3 5 1/22/2016 1/24/2016 7.66 4 Crippling 17.5 55 1/4/2017 1/8/2017 2.52 2 Significant 9.5 64 2/9/2017 2/10/2017 1.87 1 Notable 12.0 24 3/12/2017 3/15/2017 5.03 3 Major 4.5 60 1/3/2018 1/5/2018 2.27 1 Notable 11.0 70 3/1/2018 3/3/2018 1.65 1 Notable 0.1 42 3/5/2018 3/8/2018 3.45 2 Significant 9.1 47 3/11/2018 3/15/2018 3.16 2 Significant 6.0 71 3/20/2018 3/22/2018 1.63 1 Notable 13.6 62 1/11/2019 1/13/2019 2.03 1 Notable Trace 83 3/3/2019 3/4/2019 1.29 1 Notable 4.8 46 12/14/2020 12/18/2020 3.21 2 Significant 6.7 25 1/30/2021 2/3/2021 4.93 3 Major 16.6 88 1/1/2022 1/3/2022 1.06 1 Notable Trace 72 1/4/2022 1/7/2022 1.6 1 Notable 9.1 67 1/28/2022 1/30/2022 1.73 1 Notable 16.4 4 12/13/2022 12/20/2022 8.52 4 Crippling 0.0 52 12/21/2022 12/26/2022 2.66 2 Significant 0.0

Just a minor comment - triglycerides are not a form of cholesterol. They are lipids used to store excess carbs as fat. It's true that they will decrease if you reduce processed carbs and sugar intake. But they also sometimes increase in people who are trying to eat more healthily - particularly in people who increase consumption of vegetables and grains to compensate for a reduction in meat.

In Gardiner where we lived during 95-96, DEC thru APR, first parts of months were super, last parts were awful. Snowiest by 30"+ of 13 winters there but only 5th place for SDDs. temp precip snow First parts: 81 days -6.4 11.56" 127.2" Last parts: 71 days +4.8 14.58 9.2"

I guess I'm talking about the incessant cliff jumping over what models show over 2 weeks out. I wish they would stop going out that far. Or I wish people would stop looking. Or that they would fucking learn it's not final. If I get frustrated I don't have snow I just don't post.

Ray, Feb 1956 and Feb 1972 were good and both La Nina...'56 was a strong Nina. I'm stil trying to find a similar pattern as to the one being forecasted by ensembles....I agree Feb 2014 is prob the closest but that had the lower heights biased further west....more of a -PNA than is currently being progged. Late Jan/early Feb 2013 is another somewhat similar pattern too.

@MarkO has a place up that way I think.

I rest my case.

They were coming to mby

I saw a flock of geese flying north.

Here’s a link to the last video from Michael Clark, done on 12/30 in which he was highly confident and even smug: From this 12/30 video, he posted a forecast map for 12/31-1/15 showing most of the E US (Minneapolis to SL to ATL eastward) BN. Instead it is headed toward solidly AN. I project Chicago, ATL, and RDU will end up ~+5 to +6 for 12/31-1/15. He forecasted Chic at -3 to -4 and ATL/RDU at -1 to -2. BAM is headed toward a miss of -6 to -9 for 12/31-1/15 in a good portion of the E US! @donsutherland1

Great discussion in here this afternoon. I enjoyed reading all of that - even if it isn't all snow!

How much snow did you get this afternoon?

Here is the local data that I looked at: Smithtown NESIS Outcomes by season Winter Total Seasonal Snowfall # of NESIS storms Snowfall from NESIS events Net Snowfall excluding NESIS 1995-1996 94.9 1 22.3 72.6 1996-1997 17.3 1 3.0 14.3 1997-1998 4.3 0 0.0 4.3 1998-1999 25.6 0 0.0 25.6 1999-2000 16.3 1 5.3 11.0 2000-2001 50.0 2 15.0 35.0 2001-2002 7.3 0 0.0 7.3 2002-2003 62.5 4 33.5 29.0 2003-2004 56.2 2 18.4 37.8 2004-2005 62.9 2 21.6 41.3 2005-2006 24.2 1 13.3 10.9 2006-2007 11.7 2 6.1 5.6 2007-2008 14.0 0 0.0 14.0 2008-2009 38.2 3 21.9 16.3 2009-2010 60.1 5 43.6 16.5 2010-2011 60.8 4 43.1 17.7 2011-2012 4.5 1 0.0 4.5 2012-2013 46.0 2 33.9 12.1 2013-2014 68.0 6 47.1 20.9 2014-2015 67.0 7 35.7 31.3 2015-2016 38.2 1 17.5 20.7 2016-2017 41.6 3 26.0 15.6 2017-2018 65.1 5 39.8 25.3 2018-2019 21.7 2 4.8 16.9 2019-2020 9.4 0 0.0 9.4 2020-2021 41.9 2 23.3 18.6 2021-2022 36.2 3 25.5 10.7 2022-2023 8.6 2 0.0 8.6 For this period, our average annual snowfall was 37.7", of which 17.9" (47.5%) fell during NESIS ranked storms.

The interesting thing about La Nina...there are a few analogs which aren't dry during winter. I think @John1122 has posted those thoughts prior. In fact, they can produce flooding rains at times. I don't think we are out of La Nina quite yet. That said...there was worry about Canada losing its cold. The 12z Euro(yes, it is at the end of its run, but has support from its ensemble and across some other models) had this at the end of its run. Let's see if the 12z CFSv2 can get on a run. If flipped cold for Jan 21-31. I probably is a blip, but the image below kind of fits where I think we are going. The coldest air is going to push into the Canadian Prairie and refuse to budge. I am sure the West will get its fair share...but one good cutter, and any warm-up would go poof! This also fits exactly what LC's analogs have shown for late winter. Can you imagine what the Lower 48 would look like w/ a strong amplification in either of the blocking areas would produce? The SER will fight, but w/ that air mass as a plausible option...we may need a little SER.

Wouldnt Box pick up the precip in my area better..? It was showing on alb and NYC radars but not box

Way ahead of me - only the left knee last June (may your 2nd knee be as easy as my 1st) and neck fusion in 2011. Other surgeries - prostate, and ablation for A-fib - didn't require leaving any hardware.

Cut out all processed sugar as much as retentively possible. I mean you gotta go at it with remorseless vengeance and assume with distrust in your heart that whatever, where ever, and why, are all conspiring to sneak it past your attention. Everything about food stock provided by the "Industrial Food Complex" since the early part of last century is reconstructing sugar molecules. Stay on the outside of the grocery store perimeters. Only by raw and cook your own. NO EXCEPTIONS! Go Allulose and Stevia extract ( organic sources), about 96/4 mixtures if you have to have sweet. A teaspoon of honey is probably okay ( but that doesn't mean 20 of them either). The former tastes exactly like the toxicity with 0 toxicity. You won't know the difference and it has zero glycemic index. Sugar beyond the biological evolutionary signal ( an amount that is shockingly lower than people are aware) is connected to 90% of all inflammatory responses in physiology, and just about all systemic problems traditionally associated to 'just aging' are in fact connected to different degrees of inflammatory response. What's actually aging is the body's ability to resist the toxins of access sugar. Easily fix.. Gout and other forms of arthritic flares, to hypertension to pre Diabetes and eventually arteriosclerosis and cancers ... all can be traced back to inflammation. You'll lose weight. Your cholesterol will plummet ( particularly the tri-glics and ultra LDLs). You'll notice a reduction in frequency and intensity of maintenance areas of the body. Hell, you might even recover some

Some examples: