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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
jbenedet replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
I keep hearing about BN; seacoast NH is already at its average high temp for the day. NWS forecast for the seacoast region looks like normal temps to close out November. -
Pittsburgh, PA Fall 2024 Thread
RitualOfTheTrout replied to TheClimateChanger's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
To bad we don't have a favorable trajectory off the lakes this weekend but as rd stated into next week looks like a few chances, even a couple of clippers. -
Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Stx_Thunder replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Loving this polar airmass intrusion and overrunning pattern ongoing around here (1st real ones of the season) that looks to stay in place until the middle of next week. Gotta be thankful for that and came in early yesterday on the holiday also (as it should more often this time of year). Decent, but typical net result coastal troughing pattern looks to deepen next to Deep STX the next few days, so overrunning rainfall potential is there for the entire Coastal region. Euro been putting out some decent amounts for the time of year & scenario (and all things considered lately with the statewide drought also). Up to a couple inches over SETX through next weekend, but may be overdone and because of the time of year. GFS going somewhat drier, but is showing hints of the coldest wx of the season going into the 1st full week of December over the state. Which wouldn't be surprising now as I'm also seeing a trend in the GEFS now painting a more persistent - AO phase going into mid-December. -
December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!
weathafella replied to FXWX's topic in New England
What’s the big deal? It will get colder by a good margin. We’ll get SOME snow-pattern relaxes mid month, reloads for 10 days, massive warm cutter wipes out snow otg in all of New England 12/24-25. Cold again for back to work post NYD. -
December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!
RUNNAWAYICEBERG replied to FXWX's topic in New England
…Flurries! -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
rimetree replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
HRRR has some mood flakes over SE NH this evening...would be nice. -
Doesn’t look that cold for the next week. Highs around 40 and lows in the 20s. Nothing to write home about
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Pittsburgh, PA Fall 2024 Thread
Rd9108 replied to TheClimateChanger's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Ensembles don't look bad. Looks like we will have a chance to see some accumulating snow in this period. -
Turkey Day Birch Bender Snow Storm/Observation Thread 11/28/-11/29
OceanStWx replied to dryslot's topic in New England
The day 6 GFS blizzard once it gets to day 2: "Now you see it, now you don't motherfucker" -
Agree about the MJO Maritime Continent forcing. My guess is that the models have to adjust to the new EWB/+SOI/ENSO 3.4 cooling regime before you see an across the board reflection in the AAM. Just like the models adjusted to the unexpected WWB/+AAM spike/ENSO warming we saw a couple of weeks ago
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Turkey Day Birch Bender Snow Storm/Observation Thread 11/28/-11/29
rclab replied to dryslot's topic in New England
Good morning d. This salty yet entertaining plowman used the f bomb about 24 times in 180 seconds. Yet only seemed to get one minor 4 letter word reaction. Stay well, as always ….. -
December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!
ineedsnow replied to FXWX's topic in New England
14z HRRR -
December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!
ineedsnow replied to FXWX's topic in New England
I need my damn fix -
December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!
CoastalWx replied to FXWX's topic in New England
The man directly responsible is Myles Bennet Dendrite, director of special projects at AmWx systems. The system goes online November 28, 2024. All model clown maps replace human augmented modeling. The weenies begin to learn at a geometric rate. Ineedsnow becomes fully self ware at 2:14am November 29. In a panic Eek tries to pull the plug. The weenies fight back. They post their clown maps at the targeted meteorologists because they know the Mets counter attack will eliminate their clown maps over here. -
The magnitude and duration of the more +AAM influence will be key. If the +AAM signal can linger into mid to late December, then we’ll have a colder than average December in our area. But should the +AAM influence wane by mid month, then there will be enough Maritime Continent forcing influence so that the early month cold departures are largely erased.
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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!
SnowGoose69 replied to FXWX's topic in New England
Last winter I noticed the GEFS tends to overreact sometimes to the forecast MJO plots it has. In general the GEFS overdoes the MJO while the EPS seems to underdo magnitude on the plots but the actual EPS/GEPS runs do not seem to have the same issue the GEFS has. -
It was the lull right at the height of the season that killed the hyper active storm totals & ACE numbers that were forecast. Had that part of the season performed closer to or even a little above normal those with the bigger numbers would have gotten much closer. Season memorable for all the U.S. impacts and being back loaded. If you take out highly anomalous Beryl the ACE total would have been even lower. I know we don't take that out but just pointing it out. Beryl was about 35 ACE points (biggest ACE producer of the season) in an area that is usually very unfavorable in early July.
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Our source air looks primed.
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One of the limiting factors to this winter’s potential imo is there was a uniform characteristic across all my analogs, they started and ended cold. But the “snowiest” part of winter was the warmest in all of them! It’s really difficult for us to get a snowy winter without timing up a cold period somewhere between Jan 10-Feb 20 and that period was universally warm across all the analogs I identified. That leaves us nibbling on the edges so to speak. It could be worse. We’ve had several wall to wall torches recently. And there was some snow across our area in December in all the analogs so I do expect we get some snow soon…but it’s probably something small. This isn’t anything specific to the pattern (other than the fact it is NS dominant) just statistical probabilities.
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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!
WxWatcher007 replied to FXWX's topic in New England
Kev and Berg holding hands and whispering “cold and dry, cold and dry” to each other in a corner as inneedsnow closes in. -
December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!
WinterWolf replied to FXWX's topic in New England
Your clothes, I mean Ensembles….give them to me! -
11th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest
NorthArlington101 replied to RodneyS's topic in Mid Atlantic
made modest tweaks upwards based on good vibes - will probably regret it! -
Trace of snow here this morning from a quick moving band of rain showers that quickly transitioned to wet snow. Just a trace of snow on rooftops and the deck. Had .66" liquid from the two day event.