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FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane.

LFG.

Was EasternUSWX renamed to American weather to distract from the winter of 2009? Just a thought...

Looks like the government deregulated the transgenic american chestnut. I initially supported the original Darling 58 trees, but the whole thing became a fiasco with a mix up. These are Darling 54 trees now and they don’t have the vigor the D58 or regular trees had. https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/program-update/usda-deregulates-american-chestnut-engineered-enhanced-blight-tolerance

According to the following link, NOAA has switched to RONI as its official way of reporting ENSO effective 2/1/2026 and not just for weak ENSO despite them still maintaining the ONI dataset: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

You are talking local patterns and nuances more than the actual strength of the event. The last event in 2023-2024 jumped the planet to a new higher global temperature baseline with a relatively weaker RONI. The Nino ridge was among the strongest on record with the warmest winter in record for the CONUS and much of North America. It’s debatable whether the weaker Aleutian low was a function of RONI or just a symptom of weaker upper lows in general over the years with both La Ninas and El Niños. Notice this past winter with a weak La Niña configuration closest to 1995-1996 the ridge overpowered the pattern with smaller 500 mb lows.

it's struggling to burn off the morning misery mist here in the valley

It's deeper than that ... It actually is an attempt to atone for the weakening correlation that's been observed in climate recency. Not wanting to get into a whole pedantic tl:dr but correlations exists between two points because there is a physical relationship between them. In the context of ENSO, as the whole planet's been warming outside the ENSO girdle with accelerating d(C), the gradient is shallowing. That shallowing gradient means that the respective (particularly warm phases ...) are not coupling to the holistic hemisphere(s) as deeply. Climate Prediction Center says it right in their definition, "..RONI is one measure of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods..." RONI is an attempt to tighten the correlation back up by accounting for the whole systemic warming, which offsets the climate bases of ENSO alone. So, using the RONI outlook should ( in principle ) show better impact/effectivity scoring. Heh, it's why Ray and I and others are keenly intereste in this espoused ensuing super NINO - it's the best opportunity to date to test that. Really ... all of this is necessary because the climate change has out paced the usefulness of using a static climate inference to gauge the intensity of warm(cool) ENSO.

Agree Dec probably sucks.

Very true - Also San Diego is much cooler in July and August then NYC metro ContextClimate - scroll to different stations to compare

For anyone wondering about the source here...great tool: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

Low of 64 with .12" of rain, as most of the action dodged me yesterday. I'll need to get a mow in after work today. Great weather for opening night of high school football. Might be a campfire night. Onward.

I think it has value for higher end events, but some may interpret it too reductively...IE, lower RONI=Weaker EL Nino=colder. I interpret a lower RONI in a high-end event as more competing forces around the hemisphere than would normally be expected with such a high ONI, like we have spoken about. Having a lower RONI and the ONI in an El Nino is often an ominous sign for NE snow lovers IMHO.

NOAA and other agencies maintain both the ONI and RONI. The paper it’s based on developed it more for marginal events like weak La Ninas and El Niños where the WPAC warm pool was extending more influence than the Nina regions. This was not specifically designed for higher end El Niños or La Ninas.

Feels like we should change Southern New England to Stein England except for SWCT.

Ooof, that was a horrid winter for snow lovers.

Chris, are you disputing NOAA? NOAA is saying as I think you must realize that measuring against average overall worldwide tropical ocean warming is a more realistic gauge of the strength of ENSO events. Why else did they convert to relative measures for official measurements? Also, BoM has switched among other organizations.

63 this morning any heavy fog. Had another one of them small blips on the radar yesterday . Thunder & lightning and .23” of rain.

Would you agree that changing the name of Manchester Regional Airport or Hot Springs, New Mexico may be in a different class than major international bodies of water? Just speaking in terms of factual size/scope.

Tuesday through Thursday next week has at least some potential showing on the AI guidance.

RONI is a relative metric to other areas of SST warmth. It’s not a realistic gauge of how strong the actual El Niño event is. The planet doesn’t care about relative metrics as the global temperatures are setting records every day now with how extreme this event is becoming.