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Tidal Flooding of a weird set up. Weak storm out to sea and a strong High Pressure in Canada.

Of course they had to be on the road this weekend

It absolutely will....but I think it could also be snowier, and in fact it likely will be.

Don't forget the fact that the solar cycle and QBO are also more hostile. In the interest of being truly exhaustive, I think you also need to consider the ramifications of that 30 years of warming on the Pacific basin, as it's been biasing convective forcing westward relative to expectations derived from traditional diagnosis, such as max ENSO SST anomaly.

Expectation this morning: Flood Advisory Reality: 0.09"

Here is to another guilt free weekend of watching foot ball..

Well, at least acorn season will be over after this weekend.

So nice to see blue on model runs again up in Canada area! Winter is coming!

Thats crazy about 1997-98. Here its more frequent snow so its basically in the end getting less than normal. Even on the coast where a big storm or lack thereof is often the defining moment of the season, i suspect a completely snowless winter is very difficult to achieve. Even an identical pattern to 1997-98 would yield different sensible weather and likely some snow in nyc if it happened again.

18z euro ai a tick NE from 12z. Not a lot different.

Bye bye sand that's been mostly spared the past few winters for some areas!

18z Euro AI close to 12z.

I don't have an Ambient station and I send my data to their website for free.

wtf… Been completely oblivious about this. Looks like 3-4 days of shit. ugh

Strong east winds for days ahead of this storm will pile water up against the shore. A euro track would be no bueno for the coast.

No, it's actually surprisingly accurate. Strong La-Nina years are good for south east snow, like the last two years. Stong El-Nino years are good for north east snow.

I’ll start a fall thread tmrw if no one wants to jump in

1983 followed a very common El Niño Modoki Index trajectory in that it began extremely east-based, then began to decay westward post-peak. I still expect this one to do that to an extent, but I must admit I no longer expect it to do so to the extent of 1983. I am in the process of devising things and I expect to remain more east-based than I did....large impact on the forecast? Nope.

It's every bit of this here at the beach.

I get what you’re looking for, it’s just really difficult to get a perfect set up.

Every year is different though. It takes one

I live in a grove of 100’ White Pines so wind only excites me when I’m at the coast. Although, I will say, White Pine are quite resilient with high winds outside of anomalous severe events. Either way, I just don’t see this being super impressive inland unless everything goes absolutely right for widespread damaging coastal. 9 out of 10 times it’s disappointment if you’re looking for big excitement in these storms. Well see what models show 24 hours from now when the sampling is better…

Radar estimates probably way over done in southern Wake. I might have got 0.30...but it's showing 1 to 1.5...it has really cooled down though. Fall is here!

Looks wet on both models Saturday and Sunday, though not as bad as southern New England. Here's Saturday morning through early Monday afternoon: GFS Euro The exact specifics aren't really worth locking onto, just that the "trend" has been toward a closer approach of the storm and rainier weekend as a result for your purposes.