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We'll take care of that this year.

Between the -PDO, +PMM, and El Nino it certainly is a torch out there! Most people will see that and just say "global warming". We know that a lot of that stuff is cyclical although I'm wondering if +PDO ever comes back in my lifetime (maybe for 2-3 years at some point like '13-16).

If this was Jan, you'd be all in at this point!

DCA has an 80 degree day recorded for every month except for December.

No back-pedaling allowed! Your initial approach was, "ho-hunm, maybe we can get something" said in EEYORE tone, despite strong signals in the models.

How about those 12z ECMWF rainfall totals when all is said and done? 9.95" right over Weymouth! Would be among the best Nor'easters in Sep for the region.

Picked up about .5 here and it was a pretty lousy day with sheet drizzle after the steadier rain moved through. Good afternoon for football and indoor activities.

Wettest month in two years here, so far. Another ~2 inches of rain, by month end, as currently forecast would make this the wettest month since at least July 2015 or Sept 2013, depending on exact amounts. Any month with even three inches of rain is vanishingly rare here. We had two inches of rain in the city this week, and it abruptly killed the heat (90s/100s) we've had almost every day since May. El Ninos with >average rain in Jun-Sept locally tend to behave better as "cold" and or/severely "snowy" winters locally. Looks like we may pull that out yet, even with Jun-Aug well below average. 17E in the E Pacifc may help a bit in the short/medium term as well, by keeping MX flush with moisture.

Some nice rain totals across Northern Chesco

Might be a touch of northerly shear impacting Fay now as well. Distinct southerly shunting of the convection can be seen on IR

Yes, a dry air slot. Look at the last few EIR frames. It is possible since it has not moved much at all, some upwelling is taking place now as well. 00z ATCF gives it 60 kt/995 mb. Hard to get a T4.0 (65 kt) from Dvorak w/o an eye or embedded center pattern. You need excellent banding and very cold cloud tops for a 4.0 when a banding pattern is applied. Tiny TCs are indeed not handled well by Dvorak, however, that largely applies when there is an eye (can't get a cold ring thickness wide enough for proper T-numbers). Also, Fay is over marginal SSTs (see attachment) and not in pure tropical environment, so the mixing down of the higher winds aloft 500-800 m up is not ideal. I'm just pointing these factors out now b/c I'm sure you'll see discussions/debate if it was a hurricane or not, pending the next 6-12 hr! Still, Fay did what can be expected for tiny systems. Models will have no clue. Recall Oscar from a few years ago.

A little OT but the changing of seasons is always exciting. Put the fireplace on today with the autumn chill settling in. Worry about winter if you must, but enjoy Fall everyone!

Nice. Never hit 70 here.

Yeah I think you’re right based on the latest IR.

I whiffed on that post for sure, ha.

Hopefully Greta brings palm trees here before I die

Love the Hurts haters who say he isn't a good QB yet he literally led that team down for the win today.

Yeah, went from .35 to 1.10" now. Mod rain

.75” rain today. but the rainy week is slipping away

That looks top-10’er. Jealous.

Ensembles look good too this far out.

I’m going to hazard a guess that it was a little nicer where I am than home today.

I still have a hunch that may be dry air. Look at how the cool spot pinched off from the linear break in the convection present earlier. Now if convection walls off the SE side and that feature remains then I may be mistaken

Heavier rain moving through south of 78

Agreed. That happened around Christmas 2015, and we were thinking we won't see a flake this winter...