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Why the good runs at 0z tonight? At first glance, it looks like wx modeling is holding onto the NAO longer. It gets knocked down, but quickly rebuilds. I have noticed over the years that sometimes modeling will mistakenly remove it too quickly. Is that happening now? Maybe. To early to be sure. The NAO is notoriously difficult to model. Good trends though at 0z.

This has to be the most boring Winter I've experienced model tracking-wise. The southern stream is dead and we are in an "in between" pattern all the time. At least when it's warm that's exciting because it's one side of a wave. This is just endless nothingness. I guess I should be thankful for the one storm in early Dec.

No idea if that will verify, but if anything, the Euro has stuck pretty consistently to this look that it has at 0z. Post 300 is frigid. That is certainly a plausible solution given the EPO ridge. It also fits the 500 pattern that ensembles have been showing for several days, but this run has cold to fill the trough. The 0z GEM has cold embedded as well, and so does the AI Euro. The 0z Euro actually bridges the EPO into Siberia. We take that run 10/10 times. One thing of note...I have noted I prefer the GFS at the end of shoulder season and into December. And not just because it has maintained a more favorable look, but the Euro tends to do a bit better IMHO during mid winter as the long wave pattern stabilizes. Let's see if it continues to lead the way. No promises from me, but it will be interesting to see models "react" to what might well be an EPO ridge about to form. I want to see that ridge build, before really getting overly excited. With modeling struggling this winter, we need to see it inside of d5 which it almost is.

Ah so the late November one did verify! (So used to them not verifying I wasn't sure, lol). Now I wonder if we are still seeing any lagged effects from it? (Unless it wasn't thst strong?)

This year was only a couple of days before December.....1981 did. They are usually later.

Looks to me like the 0z Euro is about to bring it(cold).

I see. Guess Feb SSWs benefit you guys a bit more since your winter goes deeper into March, lol ...So when's the last time we had a big SSW in like December or January?

Mid month is the window. See my previous post(or the one before that i cant remember lol). I didn't look at the AI tools, just the conventional Ens guidance. Signal is there on all 3. No guarantees ofc.

I saw the track in the pic and was wondering.

You should be. It’s a cool thing to see. Even if it isn’t a 16” snowstorm.

Early March 2019 had a good storm in SNE...

AIFS has a nice look Day 10 - temps are a little warm at the surface but verbatim it spits out a T-2” snow for favored spots Hopefully it’s a real window and we’re back to discrete tracking in a few days!

Mexico and Florence Ny have been getting hammered

SNE narrowly missed a HECS in March...nailed CNE. Big SSW in Feb.

Dang didn't the SER rage that entire winter, though? Not sure anybody on the EC got much of anything (0.5" down this way)

Strongly strongly considering buying one.

Totally buy that analog with more subdued west coast troughing....

Solid snow pack left in SW CT. Even down to the coast. 100% coverage in Fairfield County. Got almost an inch NYE and then another half inch to an inch last night. Looks like it’s gone by mid to late week. SMH. It seems we are stuck in a multi year cycle of storms not coming through this area when the cold is here, but when it’s warm it rains, rains and rains. Epic Greenland blocks that go to waste, negative NAOs go to waste, cold air but very little precip. Very odd weather. Heard the 80s were very similar (I was born 1990). Yes, December was pretty cold and we have a little over a foot of snow this season so far but it’s been years since we’ve had a true nor’easter with totals over a foot plus (several years). Hopefully the mid month time frame works out. I can see a big storm happening followed by another warm up and a lot of rain in this type of set up this January. .

Flip back to RNA in January is as fraudulent as Mark Moregarbage's met creds.

This times 1,000,000.

Could even get delayed a bit, but will happen...

Edge of my seat...

Looking a bit stormy in the SE next weekend on the 0z GFS. Euro has also has some convection next weekend. At least we are starting to moisture across the SE after this week.

Watching the cliff jumpers become cliff hangers.

Biggest thorn in LR modeling is a slp in the GL region. Other than that, decent looks after Jan 10. Just need a storm to hookup w/ some cold. I have definitely seen a trend for split flow w/ the EPO ridge. Might be a good sign to see a wetter So Cal in terms of that verifying later on. Getting more precip into the pattern will certainly help our chances. Drought is tough to overcome even if cold.