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Its been that way for years with the loss of any southern stream

It’s worse than the Euro for sure. It’s like a cross between Euro and Icon. The N/S absolutely destroys any chance that run. The 500mb pattern is night and day from the last two runs. The 5H vort panels say it all.

Well at least down here it looks like we finally get some winter this weekend. Although it still ranges from basically nothing on the ICON to a foot or more on the ECMWF. Right on schedule for Nina climo.

Its further north

So far this is trying to work it's magic. We need to shake the dust off.

GFS not bad

18z vs 12z gfs had some tradeoffs. The sw vort was a step back, but the nrn stream vort dug more and heights rose more in front of it, plus the high weakened by 4mb shifted NW. so thats another path to a minor win here while S VA and NC get the max.

I think you are right. When the entire thing comes out, it can actually attack the big high. Without that energy...it is forced well south.

This south trend is the thing of nightmares for the western NC foothill crowd. Something we’ve seen a lot the last few years

A lot of folks cash in with the 18z GFS. Taken verbatim

Seems to eject the southern energy in pieces. Makes since with the strong northern stream

We all good yall...we know how this game goes. Nobody should even think about rising and falling rn

On the flip side, the OP run is trending north.

I sure was. Not a trend we want to see north o I-40. Any model now which is trying to cut west of the Apps is an outlier. Models are quickly feeling the effects of a hp(albeit a bit weaker) which is exerting a lot of force. I suspect the Euro will trend south...but eventually trend back north. Suppression, in my mind, has always been an equal risk to the cutter scenario. It makes much more sense. That said, the GFS has been woeful this winter...and the ICON has been all over the place. The 18z GEFS is probably more important for a few more runs.

Saskatchewan?

Gfs does get snow up here so better than 12z

Its over....just kidding GFS looks better though

Its monday....weenies not gonna make it.

North Carolina gets smoked this run!

Exactly. This is a fail as far as what we want, but that is a solid northern stream vort that does some good work for us. Still a couple to a few inches of snow with temps in the teens.

Ai GFS is a potential 2 wave long duration system. Yes, went south but still honking for a major event.

100 percent close it now

I had to look at the 4.3 updates to see if any new models were added. They weren't. I agree that it should be easier to find this documentation.