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I feel like given the raging El Niño, the torch risk is just going to be ever-present.

So now we get the RRFS, which is a hell of a lot more than just replacing the NAM with a newer model. NOAA is basically cleaning house, retiring the NAM, its 3km nests, SREF, HREF, and most of the HiResW models in favor of one massive 3km system covering most of North America, updating every hour and forecasting out to 84 hours. Along with it comes the REFS ensemble with 14 members, although there's a catch. Twelve of those members come from the same RRFS model family, with six being older runs, and the other two come from the HRRR. So while we're gaining resolution and coverage, we're also losing some of the diversity between completely different models. There's a difference between 14 models independently agreeing on something and 14 relatives all being confidently wrong at the same family reunion. I'm pretty excited about what this thing could do, especially with mesoscale snowbands, convection, and heavy rainfall. But I'm also skeptical about how well it will handle those sharp thermal gradients that can turn 15 inches of snow into 3 inches of sleet over the distance of a few exits on I-81. The early verification has been encouraging, but we haven't seen it survive a full Pennsylvania winter yet. Hopefully we're getting a significant upgrade and not just replacing our one drunk uncle with an entire family of them. I highly doubt it can go anywhere near the entertainment value of the nam when it was wrong and that was the only redeeming part of being wrong Either way, November 3rd begins a pretty interesting new chapter in weather forecasting. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Hit 79 here. Beautiful day.

it’s #happening https://fxtwitter.com/weathernerdga/status/2110512361471631570/video/1?s=46

February 2018 begs to differ I agree no 80s in January though

DCA officially hit 90

I wouldn't be too surprised if LWX calls DCA/IAD/BWI as 89/89/87 as the highs of the day appear to have just missed 90/90/88. Still daily records, though.

Will there be a second wind to this torch or will it be more of a muted warmup after the cold snap?

It’s not like we have a perfect kicker…oh.

We are so back

The 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro AIFS, and Icon all have a storm of some sort have a storm off the E coast next week. I’m noting this because there’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one: -1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS: -1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12: -1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf -1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS: -1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf -1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf -1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain): 1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf 2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html —————— So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

It definitely is more influential than the PDO. The PDO is a cumulative reflection of the base ENSO state over the years, it is an extratropical oceanic index that has little to no effect on the long wave pattern.

Well to be fair…we have nonsense talk for mid October already. So I kind of get where he’s coming from. It’s starting earlier and earlier.

Its not hitting 80 during the winter..70 yea but 80? I dont care how strong el nino is.

Excited to set the latest 80 on record on Xmas day!

Save the NAM!

The disturbance on the models that develop down south in the long range might have a chance.

thanks captain obvious

latest 90 on record.

Oh yeah, crazy differences for ~4 days out. Bodes well for winter tracking!

Some people here need to consider moving to the deep south...