All Activity

We'll all hands and sing Kumbya once a good snowstorm hits.

100% to be honest, I think that's going to happen to anyone who has been either on the fence on a pattern change or just negative about seeing any snow. It's funny how a good snow event for the majority of the area brings everyone together. It's going to happen!!

One thing that I don't like is the lack of cold and snowstorms over CONUS thus far. I remember mentioning this in December 2023 and December 2024. Even years that were not good for us (2019,2020,2023) still had way more snowstorms and cold thus far. In many years, the snowstorms began as early as October, but even if it didn't begin in October, it began in November, and there would be a few large ones and several smaller ones as we neared December. Fall 2023, Fall 2024, and Fall 2025 have been virtually devoid of snow across CONUS outside of a few mountain ranges in New England and parts of the Great Lakes (and even then, that's been pretty muted). Part of this is likely due to the warmth in Canada, as that moderates temps across the northern tier, making most of their precipitation rain thus far. Ideally, you like to see a quick start to the season in October or November across the Plains and Upper Midwest, but like Fall 2023 and Fall 2024, that has been almost entirely absent this season. Snow begets snow, and cold begets cold. When that is absent from nearly the entirety of the US, with December right around the corner, that's never a good sign imo. I raised these points last November and December as well.

He's playing his reverse psychology game, it'll change once something good hits us.

Clouds seem to be the only thing preventing our afternoon highs from torching.

Just got through a cloud spoke here from the typical GL low, but it's gotten sunny again. The afternoon is looking prime: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=02&length=12 OTOH, New York State is cloudy...because it usually is. They're definitely on the wrong side of the Great Lakes with the exception of LES which would probably get played out after a while.

We shall see if he gets some playing time. That's exactly what he needs. Clearly has more talent than the 2 turds currently playing OG.

Even getting some flurries here currently

Another day of clouds here. The forecast was for mostly sunny. But, so far 90 % of this day has been mostly cloudy. A theme the last 10 months.

having to drive back north on sunday, I'm watching this closely, but am honestly more just excited for something to track

As I said, we will also want to see GEFS as comparison, not just the EPS

Look who keeps giving me weenies

Steady snow here in Charlotte, just south of Burlington. There’s about a half an inch on the ground. Temp was 35°F at onset with a dewpoint of 23°F. We have bottomed out at 31° here in the snow as the column saturated.

I am trying to figure out,is someone really saying it is not? And if so how can they say that?

Foothills areas haven't had a big snow in February since 2014.

in Fab Febs defense, it actually produced our (my) biggest storm since 2018 last year

It's really quite unfortunate that the GFS is not a very good model. The general model consensus is positive for snow and cold after Thanksgiving and that's all I really need.

Easy toss.

Don't forget magic March.

Colder trend on the gfs and cmc for those storms. Lets see if it continues.

Canadian is an easy toss!!

Same posters doom posters, every winter; just accept it and move on.

Meanwhile, the Canadian is much weaker and drier with this system, plus it is dry Sunday-Tuesday while the GFS has two more significant events.

Freezing fog in some locations. 30 for the low here

Interesting AO forecast. Lots of spread, and not like the last two years. The strat warming( CW ) not influencing the AO, by a lack of coupling. As mentioned later in this post, in 1958 and 1968 they did couple but several weeks later. Giuseppe Petricca @gmrpetricca 47m Today's zonal GPH chart gives us a good example of uncoupled/limited coupling tropo-strato in the forecast. Strong stratospheric anomalies are present in the 10–50 hPa layer (and above - red rectangle), but below 100-200hPa, the situation is different, with limited vertical coupling (blue rectangle). While the stratosphere maintains a persistent positive anomaly pattern, at least until towards the end of the run, these signals do not propagate downward in a way that would typically influence lower-level circulation (for example, look at the orange/red anomalies back at the start of October, where they covered the entire column). In the troposphere, anomalies remain more variable and horizontally confined, indicating that the two atmospheric levels are acting more or less "on their own".