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I think he said Mattapoisett? At least he can give us day boat scallops.

37"?

Hi fellow snow weenies. We’re camped out in Wilmette-looking good! I’m thinking 4-8.

Definitely looks like the main show will be well north of me...curse of being a Summit County resident I suppose...though, still a pretty interesting looking event overall and some hopes I get some scraps down this way on Friday. Already starting to see some loosely organized lake effect taking shape over the lake and heading into the Buffalo/Niagara Falls area. The band should start pushing onshore from eastern Lake/northern Ashtabula Counties into northern Erie County PA overnight tonight. Winds lock in for several hours during the day Thursday...winds over the northern half of the lake will turn more WNW'rly, but winds closer to the south shore and on land over OH will remain more WSW or even SW through the day. So, I suspect we'll see a band that gets into a good portion of Lake County and probably far northern Geauga Thursday morning...extending east across northern/central Ashtabula, most of Erie County and perhaps extreme northern Crawford County in PA...but probably struggling to push much farther than that for most of Thursday. Through tonight, very strong boundary layer flow of 40-50kt over the lake, somewhat conditional instability, and the instability lift largely staying focused below the DGZ, all argue for snow rates remaining fairly under control. Conditions gradually improve through the day Thursday as the cold air deepens a bit and as the boundary layer flow over the lake weakens slightly, so we'll likely start seeing some 1" per hour rates within the heart of the band during the day Thursday. A pretty good shortwave crosses late Thursday afternoon/early evening, bringing winds around just a bit more and allowing for deeper cold air and moisture, with some Lake Michigan connection, to spread in. So, expect the band to push a bit farther south Thursday evening and really start to rip, quite possibly to the tune of 1-2" per hour. Soundings are most favorable Thursday night overall with equilibrium levels pushing to as high as 15k feet and deep moisture, to go along with decent lift and instability through the DGZ. The band probably will push into northern/eastern Cuyahoga, northern/central Geauga, much of Ashtabula, southern Erie and more of Crawford PA the first half of Thursday night. Another subtle trough crosses after midnight Thursday night, bringing a better push of WNW winds pre-dawn Friday. At that point, we should see activity expand into at least central/eastern Cuyahoga, southern Geauga/northern Portage, and northern/central Trumbull, though with the shorter fetch we may see the dominant band break up into upslope snow showers and weaker multi bands, with perhaps some lingering organization focused near Cuyahoga County. Activity may lull, or at least be fairly disorganized, for several hours during the day Friday. Winds begin backing late Friday into Friday night and there are decent signs of a last gasp type W-E band developing across Cuyahoga and into Geauga County Friday evening, and perhaps lasting a few or several hours before weakening/shifting farther NE late Friday night. I'll post a very rough map without real numbers on it (just wanted to draw something quick)...I do think the heaviest accums focus slightly inland given the very strong flow over the lake for most of the event, even if banding hangs up near the lakeshore for most of Thursday. I think eastern Cuyahoga into northern/central Geauga is a very good spot, as they'll probably get a lot of snow between late Thursday and early Friday with a little more Friday evening/night. It will be quite windy through Thursday with near blizzard conditions wherever the band is...winds gradually ease Thursday night into Friday but remain gusty enough for some blowing/drifting. I'll finally get a crack at the official forecast/AFD during the day tomorrow. The headlines currently out are reasonable, and our afternoon update today lowered things noticeably along the lakeshore and fine tuned peak amounts a bit and I don't think it's unreasonable at all. I may have the "fun" of deciding if Summit needs an advisory or if Trumbull needs a warning tomorrow, assuming neither upgrade is made on tonight's midnight shift.

I expect to do very well this month relative to most of SNE....should be a slump-buster.

Looks like 6-10+ on the Euro

18z euro more realistic with other models now and still a nice hit for a lot of subforum. I would be very happy with that outcome. Hopefully we don't start a drying trend though.

I'd hit it-

Gonna have to dive into this soon....probably going to get something out, along with my December preview, either late tonight or tomorrow night.

CAB The good snows portrayed last night in 10 of 100 panels still has a 1 in 10 chance and the models are now cycling through the other 9 out of 10

Enjoy it while you can. We rolled into Chicago dinner time last night with temps in the low 50s. Today windy and low to mid 30s with intermittent flakes (very light). Looks to stay sub freezing most of the next 7 days. 3-6 or more Saturday/Saturday night looking increasingly likely.

I think he’s had 5 Pits since last winter.

Given today's trends, the non-event option seems to be fading fast; final outcome still dependent upon some finer points that will take another 3 days or so to resolve; degree of confluence across southeastern; strength of retreating high, any -nao assist, strength of low-level temp gradient etc... like most SWFE events interior is favored, but current trends suggest to me front end dump potential could be decent on the coastal plain as well??? No matter how this first one plays out, it could help improve the setup for events that follow?

18z Euro would probably be a decent hit west of the fall line. Nice SLP track, just need a better HP position for everyone to win. Although it is stronger and and in a better spot than 12z.

When the hell did you move down to the south coast? Must’ve been when I was on vacation from here all summer.

lol. Probably NoP 495. Anyways just fodder at this point. At least it’s something to watch.

Buzzard's Bay 495 look?

Link?

Currently 45.7/26.6 at 7 pm after a 61.7 high earlier. Winds started really blowing about 3 hours ago into the upper 30's. Currently NW at 16 gusting 31 mph.

The Euro Weeklies control run is frigid. The ensembles is obviously smoothed but seasonably cold. @John1122, the late December/early Jan cold snap is evident.

New to Americanwx so I'm still trying to figure things out here. How far usually 'til a storm thread is made?

Definitely a 495 look. Which is not a surprise on 12/2.

Pretty much expected: ALTHOUGH, WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON WHAT THE EURO GUIDANCE IS SHOWING, AS IT IS LARGELY AN OUTLIER. THE GFS/GEFS AND THE CANADIAN SUITE OF GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS HIGH WITH TOTALS, BUT STILL BRING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. QC

We’re due for another good old classic 495 storm. The high is actually starting in a decent spot at the onset. It retreats but even coast might get a good front ender if that antecedent airmass is good.