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Bipolar crowd today....we had a decent December with sustained cold and some snow, even if nothing else happens before NY. Models are struggling with the pattern and we will have to wait to see what happens in January....BUT unlike a lot of years there is a lot of cold air lurking not too far to the North. Patience....

18z Nam shows just that. Almost like a WF moving in with kink in isobars at 15z.

Very interesting archived forecast. Is this information publicly-accessible and, if so, do you have a link?

Going to be an interesting day for sure.

I'm sensing a recurring theme there where the AI interpretations are always slightly to moderately "better" ( referring to winter enthusiast lensing - ) than whatever the operational non-AI tenor of that run cycle is. I'd like to know how these Artificial Intelligentsia model variations are actually constructed - how/what is/are processing. It seems to me there might be some climate tainting the AI ... like part of what it does ( just pure speculation here - ) is factor in all inputs that might be factored, like at all ..., and if climate from 1980 is involved in that, it would be bad. The other thing is I don't mean to impugn the AI modeling technology. It's fledgling and probably primitive - obviously - for having just recently been invented. 10 years from now, who knows. It's a journey that's probably got to be made full of the usual peregrinations of successes and failures along the way... all that. How have the AI models done up to this point in time, this year? I don't really count last year - I don't think. It was just too primitive and sparsely existing. But now there appears to be an actual competitive market getting going so it should be time to compare verification and scoring

BOX upgraded srn RI and along cstl MA to HWW. But imho, that logic should include the rest of SE MA

Yup. going backwards

Yeah, I see him on the AFD's for up here.

You can see the temps bounce up and down on the hrrr. Almost looks like a batch of heavy rain late morning ahead of LLJ core and then more scattered after until fropa. Any breaks in between and sky brightness will help boost temps a tick or two. Hrrr is like 61 here lol.

3" depth 48F

Still have to watch though because if its just a non stop rain with no break between the initial area and line ahead of the front, gusts will be greatly diminished. It looks like the window for gusts 50-60+ is going to be relatively small and might end up being something more localized versus widespread. If there is a break between the initial area and incoming line, it will absolutely rip for a few hours

The modeling (ensembles/operationals) this afternoon is showing a decidedly east-based -NAO going into the beginning of January, also still holding on to the -PNA as well. If the true east-based -NAO is correct, it would be quite the change from what we have seen over the last 10 years or so with -NAO’s,

At least seven straight year of it raining at some point on NYE! Last time it snowed, I believe, was 2009.

Agreed. If we punt all of January then winter is 75% over by that point and we're in sun angle season.

I mean maaaaybe, perhaps, possibly, mayhaps......but not really. For me personally, no I do not even remotely consider 1 or 2 days in the low 50s in mid-December to be a "torch period". I would also point out that he forecasts for the LSV, not Maine haha, and I assume the people to whom he was responding were also inquiring about the local area, not Canada. I digress.

yup for sure. I am definitely a bit more intrigued than I was 24 hours ago.

man all the good vibes destroyed in 12 hours. The AI had a decent look though

He’s around. But in his defense, the NWS is really getting hosed. It’s a tough situation for all of them and I’ll just leave it at that.

The LLJ also backed west and slowed down from earlier in the week which is helping

53 degrees here right now. Beautiful day. The cold and snow was nice, but it's also nice to have a warmer day for running outside.

I remember the posts and poster he got upset about lol.

That LLJ does hang back through early afternoon. Unlike that setup some weeks back where models trended east with the LLJ inside of 48 hours...this one has not

I noticed quit a while ago but was reminded when Scott mentioned it so thought i would ask.

Yeah those typically are more conservative. Eye popping to see the gusts on those .60-70+. Hoping ….