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Afyer reading discussions from the pros in Morristown at the NWS, I'm going old school and just goi g to wait and see what happens. They even say they don't know. In the Hamilton County detailed forecast they are saying sleet, freezing rain, and heavy snow accumulations Saturday and Saturday night. They said models are changing so much they have no way of determining where the snow line will shift. They really don't know. They are keeping temps below 32° for the high Saturday and staying below freezing late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. We might still get it. Remember the old days! Just wait and see what happens. I honestly think we have wayyyy too many different models. They need to just go old school and actually read the maps and make manual adjustments based on climatology and micro-climates. A lot of the new mets are relying on a computer models to tell us what will happen instead of putting in the work to figure out small details. Time will tell. Sorry for the long post. Not a rant, just trying to see things from the eyes of the pros. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Diving into this morning's 0z data. It is even colder, now suggesting DFW could potentially stay below freezing through Wednesday or Thursday next week with potential another shot of Arctic air on Friday. QPF has increased across all modeling. Single digits are a lock and Monday morning could be 0 to 5.

Well hopefully my move will help some with this storm

Interesting discussion from SGF NWS

Congrats nyc

Going to be a fun couple days to see which models handle the phase best. Regardless of the outcome, Im just stoked to have a setup like this to track again. Its been a minute....

700 mb temps is the level we want to watch for any sleet. BL temps, as depicted right now, are very cold so freezing rain will be minimal. Warmest panel on GFS: Warmest panel on Euro: Warmest panel on CMC - no sounding, but looks like 0-1 degrees C on the sounding over DCA.

Looks a little niipply a week from today. Goodness

I’d like to crank that coastal just a bit more to have a higher ceiling. Otherwise not sure I see the PDII analog at the moment. Think ceiling is like 12-18. Which obviously the region would take.

Once all the players get onto the CONUS and we get some data sampling, things will get right back on track.

icon is a great run best run so far for the city but south jersey mixes and even changes to rain around AC. ai gfs is a big hit

But seems to be significantly raising the threat of ice in Richmond, and we don’t want that ish either. Not after ice took out our water infrastructure last year. [emoji52] .

Not even thinking of mixing on the GFS.

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On the GFS, this starts 18z on Sunday and leaves by 12z Tuesday.

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Very True. I should have specified for my location coastal OC NJ. Euro, if depicted correctly would even mix for awhile into the city, and absolutely LI.

Plot twist, he had the map upside down.

I’m not even gonna be mad if we have to sacrifice some qpf to the sleet gods to get the euro solution. That’s juiced up overrunning on steroids! 15 inches and then a little sleet is ok with me. Of course if we keep trending this way and drive that primary even further north our snow can become more short lived but hopefully we have approached the limit of the amped trending and perhaps trend back a little colder.

@NorthHillsWx - let's say the high is predicted correctly in strength (1038-1048) and can stay in that general Pennsylvania/NY region. Do you believe or have you seen a huge LP system just barrel through it or even run the HP up out of there? Common sense tells me cold dense air will slide under it and down the apps making the CAD strong (granted ice is freaking scary). Jist curious if you have seen anything like this or have an opinion either way? Thanks

Praying for a sleet bomb and not the ZR Nightmare the Euro depicts at this point. The 6z GFS at least didn't make any big jumps north so maybe the 6z suite can stop the bleeding (although I know many believe the corpse to be already dead)

The snow amounts would be similar though. Euro is essentially a huge thump to dry slot.

Hate how much time there is for this to go the other way still over 100hrs

WB 6Z GFS