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Huh, 51F today. I was told that we would not break 50F during this warm period.

Please no....

We had multiple BM track rainstorms in January 1958. A lot of people are very ignorant of weather history....but that is my forte, so it's easy to push back on. Multiple things can be true at once (which is also hard for many)....you can be warming, but also not have every event be some new shocking paradigm. Places like interior New England are likely never warming enough to become a DCA/BWI climate....perhaps that happens to NYC at some point....but even that could be a stretch.

dont know what the end result will be but the 18z should be better than the 12z which may not be saying much

Stop. He knows what he's looking at.

Been busy the last few days so haven't been paying much attention(a good thing actually) Just looking at the ens means, and this is a pretty sweet UL look. We haven't seen energy digging like this very often lately. Still not crazy about the look in eastern Canada, with the vort lobe and higher heights near 50-50, so interaction and timing is critical. Details to be resolved going forward. Op runs will have some misses, close calls/teases, and some hits. Stay calm.

I saw freezing fog as part of my forecast too. That should be fun in the morning.

That post is incorrect.

Lol when I was 7 in 1964 in mid winter it rained with an offshore track. Do some research before you post.

It'll be much more interesting once we get into next week. 5 days out is my magic number. Things look good but we've been burnt recently.

lol you know you can get rain when a benchmark track now, right? and like 10 years ago? where do these people come from

That MEI number is proof of a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) La Niña

Nice increase on the EPS ensembles over the last 48 hours (thru the same end time). We're finally starting to see some snowstorms pop up and disappear, but that's better than nada we've had for awhile.

What 18z run did u look at! Lol

Very nice!!

Like I said, you don't understand. Google/AI might be helpful.

The 18z ICON at 120hr isn't going to phase as much of the southern stream into the longwave trof as 12z. Kind of a bummer, but not surprising since it has so little support. It still looks better than the GFS, for example, but it's a little more evidence that the best model outcome is probably wrong.

It’s been a minute since I’ve seen pinks on any clown map around here

I’ve been looking as DC’s 5 day forecast on Google all this week. At the start of the week it showed Saturday reaching 66, a day later it was down to 62, and now it’s not even going to make it out of the 50s.

Holy hell! Help me with a GFS bomb for happy hour. I can’t freakin see….

Until the warmth from the CC outpaces the cold and you end up with rain from a benchmark track. That is coming sooner than we think

Yeah made it to low 50s in NYC as well. We’re torching quite well this week. Seems like we’ll be back into colder weather by Monday, 1/12. This will definitively erase our colder than average start to the month

The pulses of winds aloft then descending during that storm were insane. I believe that led to the hole in RI all that air rose over EMA sunk and dried quickly in RI then rose and as quickly condensed in CT. Probably one of the most anomalous storms of my life. I mean 14 here while 4 just 3 miles to my east which is over 750 feet altitude and usually gets more than me on 850 east flows.

Looking like we're going to get some beneficial rain tomorrow and especially Saturday ahead of the cold front. The Northern Mountains could see some flow snow late Saturday night into Sunday. Next week looks real interesting regarding any possibility of wintry weather particularly from the 15th going forward!

53 here today after a low of 28.