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Worth noting that despite the lower odds, Invest 98L has seen an uptick in support from ensemble guidance. I've always thought this one had a chance in this region, and tonight we're seeing a flare up of convection near the center. We'll see if that continues. Currently it is meandering into a region of significantly lower shear and warmer SSTs. Just enough of a window for something to pop...

Awesome. Have fun! Were you able to score a half dome permit?

lol, lows in the 30s are not going to happen. I can see lows in the 50s, maybe even upper 40s, but no way are going to drop below 40. That hasn't happened in September in a very long time, and it would at or near record territory. Heck, we haven't even gone in the 30s in October in recent years. (The last time was Halloween weekend 2020.)

Super Nino's are huge hit or total miss because of monster N. Pacific low correlation. Our top snowstorms are like -150dm GOA low pattern. The "El Nino pattern" has yet to happen this year. Doesn't mean that it won't happen going forward but you have to consider the strong -PDO N. Pacific pattern that we have had since 2016.

the mid-atl forum is really great, i'm glad to be able to discuss with and learn from such knowledgable and down to earth posters

Same here. Along the shore is 2 weeks later than inland. Mid Oct here, with early Oct peak inland. Maples go first, and should be peaking in a about 10 days or so inland.

Floyd wasn’t a huge deal imby, but it’s my earliest tropical impact memory. I remember the wind blowing hard when we were outside during recess and power going out at school—the first and only time that happened to me. I remember being glued to TWC as it came up the coast and overhead. The moon was out as the decaying center passed. Those were good days.

Great stuff in here today.

Yea, major El Niño season's are very high stakes....the dice are loaded towards huge events, but opportunities for more quotidian, or pedestrian snowfalls are limited by a dearth of cold in the seasonal mean, so it can be tough to sniff climo snowfall if you whiff not the big dogs.

Well, I was referring to "favor" within a forecasting context....

Well, latter December is more palatable....but what I specifically meant is the latter November/early December type of deal we saw this past season....that is exceedingly rare. Once nearing the new year it's much more common. For instance, I count five prior to the ides of December between 1958 and 2012 in this table.

Crescent moon has been on point, too.

Hope you didn't slip. Have they salted yet? Stupid hubbardston DPW.

I wish they'd get rid of that damned corn. That's where that trash high fructose corn syrup comes from.

Look at those records from 1991 that was a truly endless summer wall to wall heat from April through September still setting records at this late date! Two years later 1993 had an even hotter summer for 90 95 and 100 degree days even a major volcanic eruption couldn't stop it!!

Tomorrow through Friday will see temperatures recover mainly to the upper 70s. A few locations could reach or exceed 80° on one or more days. Cooler air will return for the weekend. A rainy period could develop late Sunday and continue into early next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -36.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.191 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.4° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.