All Activity

Someone should just jump the gun now and make a storm thread for this weekend Let’s just go ahead and be super confident that it’s happening!

Euro looks to be below freezing for about a week starting next Sat. Still low sun angle, that could be a nice solid week of snowcover if it came to pass.

I think we better get a lot of sleep over the next couple of days. 24 more hours of consistent modeling and grocery store workers will be hating life soon.

It’s good that the AI models show this. They have been very reliable lately. On the flip side the OP GFS and EURO have been lousy.

I think the 12z GEM para is very plausible as well and fits recent Nina climatology like a glove. This would be the northern side of modeling so far.

Light snow @ 35.1°

We'll see what happens. This is one of the more nail biting nowcast situations in a while. Hopefully that area of 700 fronto along Long Island is some indication of where we'll get better banding developing later and hints at stuff blossoming farther north and west. 850mb fronto is getting there so we should at least continue seeing precip blossom across the region later on

Control is or was a slightly lower resolution version of the Op. I think EPS has gone to the same resolution as the Op now though? Or is planning to soon?

I’ve always had 2-4 here.

To your point, below are the GFS, Euro, Canadian Ensemble snowfall through the period, and the AI Euro Ensemble snow and the total QPF for the AI GEFS (no snowmap available for this product). All very much in line for much below normal temp and plenty of QPF/snow .

...to this. Let's see if it continues to expand to our area.

Not sure what I’m looking at lol… is that a good thing?

In about 30 minutes, radar went from this...

Seems like wind has shifted to ever so might NE.

New box map as of 10 mins ago shaved a couple inches off for most.

Huge if the AI models are anywhere close to being right next weekend

That was the one that trended north in the last few days. Perfect 6 inches for dc if I remember correctly.

Definitely don't want to lose power with a potential Arctic front barreling down the Plains a few days later. I am sure the NWS will give this about 48 hours for modeling to get this into focus...and then put out the word. Still a lot of uncertainty right now.

The Euro is essentially Feb 2nd 1996.

34.5. Slowly falling. Need some more meat.

Tip beat you to it. 330 hours/14 days out….lol. Gone next run. And that looks like it is well inside the benchmark.

18z HRRR is still snowing in eastern areas at like 8-9 tomorrrow morning. Advertising a solid 5-6” in snow starved places in SE Mass. I do agree the whole evolution has kind of shunted east, but I’m not sure that matters a ton in this area

Fantastic. BOX has lowered my forecast a little from 3-5 to 2-4. GYX has cut my 4-6" down to 1-3.

Nearly identical to GFS AI

Cad classic