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Appreciate the response, thanks. I think i recall the hrrr doing well last winter? Particularly with all the snow south of DC. .

It'd just drop to 38 degrees then.

It's a very marginal setup...the HRRR and GFS aren't in actuality THAT far from the other guidance...they are just 1-2 degrees colder and have the precip come in a little harder initially...that combo is the difference between a thump snow along our NW fringe regions...and not. It's not like the guidance is showing some vastly different outcome...its just the minor differences have rather significant impacts on the ground truth in this case.

CWG says coldest/snowiest December in 8 years

Hey can you send me a PM when you get a chance? Says you can't accept any

Thanks!

What is HRRR picking up on that the NAM is not? Hrrr shows frozen precipitation for morning rush in dc metro. NAM does not. Nam showing warmer temps aloft? Is one better than the other within 12 hours of onset? .

41/23. Mainly clear.

That's not what happened lol, The northern stream on that map is north of the southern stream.

Tropical Tidbits, right click on the spot you want on the map

I’ll get out of bed for sure, but if it’s rain I’m heading right back

37/20 here under mostly clear skies

Might be tough for a time near the coast there, but of all places to try and flip they might be it.

I feel like 2020/2021 is our recent version of 2000/2001.

40/23, still clear

Little hairy for me too. News said 8 inches for Sanford

Who here is setting alarm for 4am to wake up? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Stepping back - I would like to say, believe it or not, that I'm not anti-renewable-energy, by any stretch. It will eventually be inevitable and necessary, and will be a good thing in the long run. I'm being devil's advocate here because I see a big sales job being done - some would say a con job even - in overstating the progress of renewables, and in understating the downside costs of the big renewable push, in terms of the hit it's causing on the prosperity of our society. The migration to renewable is going to take a long time - likely well over a hundred years IMO if not two hundred, and it's going to cause significant and unavoidable pain. We have been in a golden age of easy energy with fossil fuels, and it will end. Fossil is simply easier than renewables, because of physics - primarily energy density; with us living within a few hundred years period reaping the benefits of millions of years of natural storage and compaction of energy into tiny masses of burnable stuff. It will eventually be gone. In pushing the transition to renewables as hard as we are we are though - before the transition would otherwise happen organically, we are only serving to increase that transition pain. And I'm talking net pain; after any benefit to slowing MMGW (which IMO is negligible) is included in the equation.

Definitely looks and feels like snow on this Sunset walk

According to reports out of Kansas City forecasts have bust low. They received more snow than forecasted in some areas fwiw.

Thump is key for Lancaster and York. The models that “show” thump give us the highest potential. .

Nowcasting is not what it used to be, but in this situation it may come into play given how tight the gradient is forecast to be between a trace and 4”. We have seen models underestimate WAA, but we’ve also seen them underestimate evaporative cooling. Will be interesting to see play out and hopefully everyone gets a nice snow tomorrow.

Was supposed to reach a high of 42. Never went above 39. So appears slightly under projected temps.

I went from a borderline warning event here to possibly being skunked by warm mid-level that'll probably work up the valley, also, the WU point and click showed 6+" for almost a week now is at 5", with a WWA and a Aly forecast for possibly 3-4", which keeps getting smaller...rinse repeat last few seasons, at least it's 12/2 and we still have time to correct, maybe. Would be nice to get a phase and stall here, going to be in and out in a few hours I think. Still thinking North ORH/SNH is gonna jack here