All Activity

I just watched The American Revolution. The Euro caved.

The ECM is a strange solution. Its precip. field is well southeast of the 12z EPS and the shortwave is less impressive than 12z, but it still rapidly deepens the SLP into the 970mbs near the benchmark. The ECM family and the GFS are not close. Much more overlap between the ensemble means.

18z eps is further east

Which has almost become the norm 4 to 5 days out.

Fair enough. You can have my 8 I’ll take your 13.

all jokes aside, enjoy your storm! You all deserve the jackpot

Man these models are just hilarious

Depends on the model you look at. GFS is on its own with its NW solution. Most of the models have the weaker and south solutions. It's a fine line if we want better snows. Regardless as of now it looks like tuesday has a high potential to give us pur first real accumulating snow.

18z gfs looks great for you

HAHAHAHAHA

This would make too much sense. Ridge and Valley screwzone.

We've learned over the years that the models almost always underdo that "WTOD" and we're on the edge right now. Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

Forecast is 28 tonight. Currently 33.4.

This secondary push of cold air is legit. Mesonet soil temperatures west of the suburbs are about to dip into the upper 30s.

Gonna put this here too.. The uber northwest all rain solution just seems unlikely to me

Maybe I sound weenie but I'll say it: When the Euro and GFS disagree on a storm like this, 9 times out of 10 the Euro will end up being correct

DVN going all in with amounts generally 13 inches or more in the point forecast at locations near the QC. I would probably play it a bit more conservative with 8-12 with isolated higher amounts. Kind of splitting hairs though really as once you get over 8 inches it's a lot of snow regardless.

WB 18Z ensembles for early next week.

I think someone else should post MU'S thoughts for each winter event this season. That way I'm not always the bad guy. Suffice to say, he's not onboard for Tuesday for the LSV. He's expecting a significant move north with the storm track leading into the event, citing climo, the axis of the ridge out west plus an unfavorable NAO.

This idea of the cold not being locked in and the high moving east was the theme of the winter last few years so nothing has really changed for this year yet outside of below normal temperatures right now.

Euro .

For real. I’d like to think the overnight shift would come in and hoist a warning for their entire area with the exception of maybe Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac counties. EDIT: Actually after checking over that way, nah.. warning area wide would be wise. 6-8” all the way up to Port Austin.

How about NYC? Asking for a friend.