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I don't know. But thought I'd mention it because I would guess it's a possibility. You know us snow weenies...terribly vindictive! Lol

Prob gonna see some flip flopping on this one as models try and untangle the knots out west.

I was somewhat surprised at how big of a jump the EPS made also.

BOX needs to take the advisories down.

Is the SV color scale off on AI Weathernext2, too? How would we know?

Heh.. didn't see Brian's post but yeah. Related to that for sure

this is our year

Way too many cooks in the kitchen

5 month SOI.. Oct-Feb 25-26 is still going to be the highest since 2022. And we're seeing more of a Nina pattern here in the 2nd part of February and March, despite warm subsurface

Brian D, this is your moment

Raise a glass to my thread streak. I think I had 4 decent ones in a row before this. RIP

That loop Dendrite posted is telling. Good God is that a mess to sort out.

Blizzard for sure. 7.6" of wet, compacted, drifted snow imby so far. Winds 20-35 G up to 45 mph. Thundersnow last night with a band that went through. Vis 1-2 blocks. Conditions have been this way since around 11:30 pm last night. Early reports show 5-12" in the area, and we have to get through the day yet.

This looks like a dumbed down version of the Carolina snowstorm last month. Charlotte got nailed Raleigh dry slotted and beach got blizzard lol

The flow is not fast ...well not AS fast, as modeled. The gradient is relaxed compared to the mean of winter thus far. That's not it. Something else unseen is guiding this thing's demise. Right now, I'm a 'little' suspicious about data source and shadowing. Firstly, I'm not sure if that's still a thing, or if there have been advances in packing the grids full of wonderful initialization density. I'm inclined to think there's still room to question? not entirely sure, tho. But shadowing is an old school phenomenon regarding assimilated soundings. When there are closely spaced wave mechanics from off the Pacific and/or any other data sparse regions where assimilated data populates the initialization grids, the assimilation may be caused to miss/under assess momentum where there is a lead system in between. Symbolically casting a shadow. This would be a candidate for that in 2006. Not so sure in 2026. In this case, the outside slider S/W coming down off the Cali coast (ends up Friday night's ordeal), may be causing the Monday's to be lost in the assimilation. Believe me, I was 50/50 for a compendium of pros and cons yesterday. Maybe I'm 40/60 now? say... But, I kinda sorta do want this one on-board and physically realized in this case before I go 1/99

Warmer overall right now, but not a "classic warming" This Winter is going to finish with greater warm anomalies than cold anomalies at 10mb.. which matches QBO. For the 4th Winter in a row.

Keep in mind that the SV scale is off by 1, at least on the Euro I know it is. So if you're in the color scale says 6"+, it's really 4"+.

You should line this up with the member MSLP panels. Looks like around 20 indicate little to no impact from the coastal low. Combo of weak/too far offshore.

windshield had dirt all over it just like that last time wildfire particulate rain out the air, not sure if that was the case again here but naso keen on this becoming a new thing

Keep in mind that phase 3 has on average been the coldest phase during the 20 La Niña Februaries since 1975. Note that the upcoming snowstorm threat period of Feb 22-23 centered on the Mid Atlantic is forecasted to be in or very near phase 3 fwiw all the while fighting the making it a challenge progged strong -PNA.

What a convoluted mess

Yes, this year sure has bucked the typical norther trends. last weeks "event" came slightly north and we went from nothing to fringed. Seasonal tendency does not show up on tellies or factor into algorithms, so while the last 24 hrs hasn't been trends we want to see, as Mag suggested, you gotta look at 500's first before figuring out how the lower levels are gonna look. That said, there is a lot of sorting to do. Was really hoping the earlier phase was going to work out, but Friday's deal is screwin the snow pooch and not giving time/spacing to dive in, keeping the flow more progressive.

If it makes you feel better it's not lake effect. Just a spring like frontal passage. The next line looks fun in a summer way lol Cloudy, humid, foggy, mild here

Its following the GEFS MJO. Its in phase 6 there. Should pick up on phase 7 2nd week of March.

That's looking like the Euro AI precip distribution wise except displaced a tad north, also get's that 6 inch line way back into VA. I'd love to see the members for this.