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They’re done for the year.

Hopefully Reggae is on right track

12Z ICON is all rain with low heading through western Ohio into PA.

Pretty wild that the sleetpack is still visible on satellite two weeks later: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12 Looks like NC has already lost most of theirs.

We lost the snowy pattern back in late January. December was very unusual in that it was the first time we had two 4-8” clippers over such a short stretch for the month. It was the perfect 500mb pattern for maxing out the Northern Stream snowfall potential. That pattern shifted in January which opened the door to our first widespread benchmark 10”+ snowstorm since 2022 as the forcing shifted east of the Dateline allowing the STJ to become active for a week. The only time our area had multiple 10”+ snowstorms under 7 days apart was in February 1994. So that 2nd event which brought record snows to the Carolinas statistically would have been tough to pull off since we need more time for NESIS snowstorm patterns to reload here. While we could have more accumulating snow before the season ends, this faster split flow regime probably won’t be able produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark event near the coast here.

yeah, but we could see out a week. So it’s really not February 9. We’re really up to February 15 in a 28 day month. All we know is we’re halfway with nothing

Today will set an all-time consecutive below freezing streak of 17 days for Chester County PA at a few stations including KMQS Airport, Atglen DEOS and West Grove DEOS. This breaks the old record of 16 days set from January 19, 1961 through February 3, 1961 at the Coatesville 1SW NWS Cooperative station. All locations should finally see temperatures break the freezing mark both tomorrow and Wednesday with highs in the 35-to-38-degree range. This is still a few degrees below our normal highs for mid-February. We turn colder again by Thursday and Friday with near or below freezing high temperatures returning. Snow/Ice or rain chances start to increase by Sunday.

yeah you need it by about 2/20 for it to pay any dividends. March 2018 had the SSW in mid Feb and then we had the epic month

Today will set an all-time consecutive below freezing streak of 17 days for Chester County PA at a few stations including KMQS Airport, Atglen DEOS and West Grove DEOS. This breaks the old record of 16 days set from January 19, 1961 through February 3, 1961 at the Coatesville 1SW NWS Cooperative station. All locations should finally see temperatures break the freezing mark both tomorrow and Wednesday with highs in the 35-to-38-degree range. This is still a few degrees below our normal highs for mid-February. We turn colder again by Thursday and Friday with near or below freezing high temperatures returning. Snow/Ice or rain chances start to increase by Sunday.

What good is a March SSWE going to do? March is a spring month. There’s always a lag of weeks between when one happens and when it affects the tropospheric pattern. Met spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts on 3/20. If you want a cold, wet/rainy spring then I guess you’d root for it…..

12 here this Morning and my backyard is still snow covered for the 15th day in a row. Seems like just another day this winter. Pretty wild.

Based purely on gut feel… upside is a wet 2” paste job NW of 95 before flipping to rain. I’ll take the stat padder while holding out hope for a last winter gasp end of feb or early march

Reggie went wild on S coast from CT to the cape. Looks like a boost there near transition line. Looks like a better s/w as modeled.

Storm is not going to cut past the lower Ohio Valley because of all the blocking up north - it's going to be a Miller B where it reforms somewhere off the Mid- Atlantic coast and all the fine details are not obvious yet more questions than answers at the moment . As for Steve he has a knack for busts in his forecast just like many others online - not that there is anything wrong with that .

Maybe I looked at too many maps the past two weeks. Look at the latest NAM highs: are lower than I thought were forecast for this week. WB 12Z 12K NAM for 4pm Tues, Wed and Th.

I had 5.5. Not sure who that is.

@CoastalWx i see 2N Weymouth at 6" on the PNS is that you? i know you said 5.5, did it change or is that someone else?

Just ignore him folks that’s all. Wow the cold over the past couple of weeks have been impressive. We look to warm up a bit finally but making the storm track more active with mix weather events and then IMO end of month a big dog comes.

That's my thinking for April. We're in for a Top 10 warmest April, with lots of 75, 80 degree days.

It's bad, for sure, but all the models have been all over the place. Unfortunately, even with a near perfect track, we're running into surface temp issues as Chuck's suggested. In the end, we're still in the same Niña regime which is killing us. The last gasp of trade winds (Niña influence) are progged to hang around thru the first day or 2 of March. If anyone is hoping for a late season miracle, my best guess would be wait until after the trade winds die. Otoh, if next weekend works out, that should now be considered a miracle too. Lol

NYC average snowfall for February is still under 10 inches - anything more is above average of course and not expected BUT not impossible

Yes. Steve D from NYNJPA weather says we’re In a lose lose situation for the weekend. Trough digs too much in southeast so it’s a southern slider or the western trough digs too much so the storm amps up and cuts. No favorable pattern for snow for mid Atlantic for a while, he says. Our hopes for an average snowfall season will have to hinge on a March SSW I believe

The models giveth and the models taketh away... I think there could still be some hope for the last week of February into March. Still early to be calling Winter at this point. That said, I'm going to enjoy the thaw. It's been a fun few months of Winter but my body needs a break. Also i'm tired of trying to entertain a 5 year old indoors.

Looks like BOX did toss that 16.2 cocorahs report for some reason. They issued a final PNS for this and didn't include it.