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They are going to be wrong in my opinion . i just can’t see how we don’t end up with some backfill once this thing hits the coast. with the winds expected I could easily see a 1 to 2 inch band hit the area at some point.. If this slides even more south then yeah maybe we get nothing but right now I’m still in the 3-6 boat for RVA

HRRR finally on board. .

Another historical note: around this time in 1947 (when there was a major winter storm in Wisconsin per the daily roundup above), England was being plunged into a deep freeze that lasted six weeks and produced the coldest February on record. Constant sea effect snowfalls in addition to a few synoptic scale storms buried the Midlands in several feet of snow and stopped train and road travel. It was already a time of rationing and hardship as England recovered from the recent war, but the situation got worse because of the frigid unseasonable weather. The cold spell ended abruptly in mid-March followed by a severe flood from snow melt and rain. The Trent and Ouse Rivers draining the Midlands eastward went well over their banks. The rest of the year 1947 produced many warm weather records in England, and has more daily warm records than any other year as well as being in the top ten for cold records. The next severe winters in 1955 and 1956 were nowhere near as bad, but 1962-63 produced almost the same outcomes, as did Nov-Dec 2010 but by then the nation had better infrastructure in place to deal with heavy snowfalls and freezing temperatures.

13-14 or 14-15? I remember both being cold winters but I don’t think either had the intensity or longevity of this winter. I mean it’s looking likely we see - monthly departures all 3 core winter months, when was the last time that happened?!

Nice, what is your preferred blend of models or human logic that drove you to this prediction if you don't mind me asking?

Yep. When it comes to deep pow on top of catastrophic ice in Washington DC, YOU BETTER BELIEVE I am only 5 years old. And, I'm damn PROUD of the fact. And I still want 30 inches of powder snow on top of that glacier in the DMV. You guys are tough. You'll love it. I STILL worship snow to the total exclusion of everything else and everybody else. And I pray to the snow gods for deep snow right on top of that Washington DC Glacier!

This is my snowfall forecast map and cities Jefferson City: 4”-6”+ Morristown: 4”-7”+ Knoxville (downtown; East & South): 3”-5” Newport: 4”-7” + Kingsport: 3.5”-6” Greenville: 4”-7”+ Baneberry: 4”-7”+ White Pine: 4”-7”+ Mt. LeConte (including Sunday NW flow mnt snowfall): 12”-16”+ Sevierville: 5”-7”+ Pitman Center: 6”-8”+ Cosby (in the actual town near foothills pkwy; not at Wilton Springs): 5”-8”+ Tazewell: 3”-5.5” Johnson City: 5”-8” + Maryville: 3.5”-6” Roan Mountain (including Sunday NW flow mnt snowfall): 10”-16”+ Sweetwater: 3”-5” Athens: 3”-5” Chattanooga: 2”-4” Crossville: 3”-4” -Clinton, Halls, Powell, & Karns: 2”-4” (less than east and south Knox County) -Dandridge: 4”-7”+ -Chestnut Hill: 4”-7”+ -White Pine, Baneberry, Bybee: 5”-7”+ (enhanced accumulation here) -Russellville: 4.5”-6” -Mohawk, Mosheim, & Midway (Greene County): 5”-8” -Bristol (not counting Saturday night & Sunday snow showers): 4”-5.5” -Parrottsville (Cocke County): 5”-7”+

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Northeast Georgia, the foothills and Piedmont of North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce isolated power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to rapidly stick to roads and other surfaces due to temperatures in the 20s. Travel conditions could deteriorate rapidly as early as Friday evening. Very gusty winds on Saturday could result in areas of blowing snow, causing very poor visibility.

Also, my point forecast for Lancaster just updated to 100% chance of snow on Saturday with Heavy Snow possible. It's go time.

Loudon added to wsw 2-4 inches

I am out on the Ledge again just because DC is not gonna get deep powder snow on top of the Glacier. Too bad the Reaper is retired. Damn. And, Ji is correct on the model disco thread. Sure I'm 12. I am always a KID when it comes to snow, ESPECIALLY snow on top of solid ICE! I am STILL OBSESSED WITH ICE AGE CONDITIONS IN Washington DC! As long as it is not in Buda. I will NEVER grow the fuck up. I have not learned. I am gonna die someday without understanding, still worshipping ice and snow. Snow and ice are God, not g-d. I am un-repentant and I will always be un-repentant. I will DIE that way too. Guaranteed. Even tho I live in South Texas! I'm not 12. I'm 5, and I'm DAMN PROUD OF IT.

Winter Storm Warning is up for Rabun County, Clayton, GA.

Winter Storm Warnings for Charleston is such a treat to see.

For those who might be interested, here’s my latest projections for 25 select locations along the east coast: https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2017125164824100896

Well the friggin' NBM finally came back to earth once the SREFs tanked, but it's time lagged, so it won't die for at least another model cycle.

Wilmington has historically averaged 1.6” yearly dating back to 1870. That said, most years we see nothing, so it’s rare to even get the climatological average from one storm. The last time Wilmington saw a 6” accumulation was during the Christmas blizzard of 1989 (a little over 36 years ago)!

It looks like we go back into a northern stream dominated pattern again next week. Like we just saw in December

I’ve been wondering that. I remember 1994 was cold, but not sure about the length of the cold stretches.

Looking at the forecast winds for the mountain/foothills zones, would not be shocked if a Blizzard Warning is issued at some point. The wind gust and light fluffy snow is right on the cusp of MRX's criteria.

Assuming the input data keeps flowing, at the pace we are seeing, AI and machine learning will absolutely crack the weather code to the point that humans won't need to interpret much and the forecasts will be as optimal as possible, and soon-ish. As far as who cashes in on it, I don't know. The data is certainly extremely valuable. Anyway, back to snow in Tennessee! Sorry for the diversion.

https://x.com/jeremydehartwx/status/2017095415162716342?s=46

How much snow do yall average per year?

We hug!

Worth a shot...once they figure out how to incorporate AI completely, they will privatize the NWS imo. Just the revenue alone all these half-wit social media pages are generating all is enough to get Big Brother Corporations watching.

Rivers are always more risky just b/c of how currents impact freeze up. Some of the tidal areas could be walkable in a matter of days, as well as any fast ice on shores of Chesapeake. Walking on some part of the bay is on my bucket list so I will be reporting on that when it's at least conceivably safe lol