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Note to self: Do not write off winter and check out in mid Jan, even if things don’t look great and it started slow. Peak climo in SNE is late Jan to mid Feb, historically that’s the timeframe where most of our huge storms happen.

Approx. the same or even better than 18Z, I believe?

One guy says icon is great one says it okay

8" on the ICON before we flip (Kuchera tho). 10:1 is like 6/7

NYC could see 14. Do I think it happens? No. I think 6-12” is a good for everywhere right now. The usual areas in suffolk county have a way better chance by history itself.

Big warm layers can easily reside in between those two levels. Some of the forecast soundings I have seen for this event show that exact scenario. The NAM precip type code is rock solid, based on the forecasted temperature profile.

RGEM/ICON look ok, but we're about to flip shortly after 12z

One thing could happen if you get the low where the NAM is this will try Damn,look how fast that is also..lol

Icon coming in colder and clocking dc at hour 60

RGEM looks a touch colder through 60 - still snow for most.

Definitely gonna sleet just a matter of how hard it dumps for those first 8 hrs

the only thing that i'll be looking for tonight is see if the GFS changes, and i'm hoping the best model Euro AI goes a bit south from earlier runs! I'll go to sleep happy!

Lol, we hit send at the same time.

I'm gonna make sure we got to the cigar shop after we drive to the cheese/wine store in Oakland...to stock up just in case....

What type of CWG forecast is this?

Pittsburgh

Allison Park

Reading the MA thread - they say it looks quite dry but the 3K and 12K are so opposite it’s hard to take seriously.

Yaaaaaassss. Thats a crew right there! Love it!!

This is one of the more intense SWFE (hybrids) we have seen in quite some time. But yeah, they don't really tic south.