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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Dawn Awakening: End of the World

I could use the presence of an experienced writer who loves to write and work on a story that will blow the top off the competition.  Every movie studio will want this script someday, if we work hard on it together.  Speak up, I need you to help out.  You need to want to write with me.
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ENSO conditions update for the 2019-2020 Winter

Today's update is a short appeal in the overall envelope of winter solutions.  Today's neutral ENSO conditions update supports an average to slightly above average snowfall for all of New England.  Again we should have a much better handle towards the first several weeks of November on what the ENSO pattern should be like.  Eastern and Western New England have equal opportunities for above average snowfall this winter, which is quite normal within strong neutral ENSO phases.
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Pattern Changing Storm comes through November 7-8th

A massive Great Lakes storm system will impact the US sometime in the next 7-8 days from now maybe sooner and will switch the pattern to an EC trough and WC ridge pattern favoring cold and stormy conditions for the Eastern CONUS in the mid to late month time frame.  A massive snowstorm is a potential noise maker come November 12-18th period.  The signal is increasing for a formidable Clipper approaching the EC to come after 10 days.  EURO, GFS both have this system.  Cold temps look to stay prev
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**Winter Storm Alert** Two Storm threats increasing, Friday and again on Monday

Snow threats along with a wind threat exists on Monday while a snow threat exists on Friday.  Increasing model support for a 3-6/4-8" event like the one on Tuesday for Friday and a bigger event 6-12"+ on Monday into Tuesday of next week Monday.  Stay tuned to the forecasts as they will be increasingly likely for a significant event on Monday and a solid event on Friday.  Trough in the east and ridge in the west pattern will continue throughout February
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Patriots gameday forecast, November 3rd, 2019

In less than 24 hours, the Patriots are scheduled to play the Baltimore Ravens.  The current weather forecast is quite pleasant for Baltimore area.  Temperature expected to be in the mid-40s throughout the game, dew points in the lower 30s, with relative humidity in the dry zone of around 48 %.  No precipitation is expected as there are no weather systems in the area for the game tomorrow.  Frost could build throughout the game across grassy areas and colder surfaces.  Winds should be a non-fact
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Who Wants to Cowrite a movie script

Anyone want to cowrite a movie script with me, I am open to most replies.  Tomorrow I am working on character names and design.  Help me out, just email at [email protected] or instant message me at USCAPEWEATHERAF on this site, thanks looking for the first few replies.  So be the first one to reply.   James Warren Nichols Productions
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First SNE snowfall, in 10-11 days? - November 12th?

While it seems impossible to ignore, the models are clearing showing signs of winter arriving earlier than the past several winters of New England.  Snow could fall as early as next week across the lower Southern Plains of OK, KS, and TX and then move into New England as the southern stream becomes active and perhaps develop with the arctic stream to phase and develop a significant nor'easter with cold temperatures over the region.  Would like to see more and better model support over the next t
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Pattern will yield a multi-hazard storm system for end of October

Anomalous +PNA ridge blocking regime seems fit for the end of the month weeks into early November, this pattern should yield a powerful storm with orgins in the Arctic Realm.  The questions arise on the arrival of the arctic jet, how close does it phase into the southern trough in the El Nino regime developing over the Pacific Ocean, equator seems fascinating with SSTs pattern and aloft in the atmosphere.  Will share more later tomorrow.
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One thing is certain, there is some major cold air incoming

While models decide their differences in the next day or so with the incoming precipitation threats, the one thing the pattern is adjusting to show is the appearance of arctic air masses invading the Northern 2/3rds of the CONUS.  While large sustained +PNA is present, we will be getting some major league arctic air invading our region and the eastern 1/3rd of the country.  While CA and the SW US bakes in record heat and fire weather, the MS Valley eastward will be experiencing the first cold wi
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Winter Storm Gia could bring snow to Cape and Islands tomorrow

Models bring a chance at snow after 18z tomorrow afternoon.  Right now the NWS has a 20% chance for snow over the area, while I think it is something near 40% right now.  I am a little more bullish due to short range guidance getting more amped up in the southern stream disturbance and exiting the northern stream energy faster to the north of the storm.  This energy is causing a confluent flow over the northeastern CONUS allowing the DC winter storm to slide out to the southeast of the region, h
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An Early Season Winter Storm, too early to say!

Today, this morning in New England, Monday is a rather slow, unwelcoming day.  Most New England Patriots fans are waking to an early sun rise, with the knowledge that their New England Patriots took a big loss on the chin from the Baltimore Ravens before their week 10 bye.  With the knowledge that there are weaknesses on the team's defense and offense, we pay attention to the weather scene the next two weeks before another game is played against the Philadelphia Eagles.  I awake this Monday morn
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A 24-hour Ocean Effect Snow chance

Snow flurries or snow showers have a 20% chance of occurring over HYA eastward on the Cape.  Winds are currently northwesterly but will become northerly later today into tomorrow night as an ocean storm changes the wind field.
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**00z Model update**

00z models show some moving southeastward with the snow threat this weekend and the GFS and CMC bring a coastal nor'easter threat and clipper threat to the Northeast next week, I will have an update after I wake up in the morning and then again after the 12z runs.
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Since Pattern has changed, thoughts on first snowfall?

Since the pattern has changed and we are now in an active northern stream regime, cold air will be getting worse and worse, deeper and deeper in nature as each trough takes aim at the New England region, where eventually we will see our first snow in SNE around the first week in November as cold air becomes sustained, Mount Washington, New Hampshire already saw their first snow of the year.  +PNA/-NAO pattern has begun and could sustain itself for quite awhile into January or beyond.  Still a lo
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Editing help needed for novels?

If the price is reasonable I need an editing assist for my work, my first novel is done, it needs editing work.  So it is nice and neat for an agent to select it and work with me to get published.
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Potential is increasing for a decent to substantial Ocean Effect snow event

Eastern Cape Cod, east of Hyannis, MA will receive the bulk of the snow threat.  Several inches is likely.  850mb temp to the surface of the ocean differential (Delta Ts) are around +30 to +32C, and this will provide the kind of instability that will lead to thundersnows.  This is what the Tug Hill Plateau sees and so does Buffalo with SW winds.  However, the Cape does well with NNW and N winds at the surface, if we get any convergence we will see a singular band producing 2-4"/hour snowfall rat
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First real shot at Ocean Effect Snow this season? Snows from Provincetown to Plymouth, MA

Below is the forecasted sounding from the 18z GFS for 111 hours out, which is around Wednesday afternoon.  This event for Ocean Effect Snows and inverted trough mix could be quite prolific, like the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario events, why, according to the model, we have a lot of moisture present, NNE winds present from 850mb to surface, 850mb temps dropping below -16C, SSTs around +8-9C, leading to 850mb to surface differentials around +25C leading to high instability, inversion heights near 700
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Pattern favors cold and snow in the 6-10 day forecast

Could we see snow in the next 6-10 days, I believe so, do not pay attention to individual runs of the operational models, they will have flaws in them run to run, but look at the ensembles and their means and they will show you the way.  I found this map on PSU EWALL website, the models are 12z runs of the EURO, GFS and CMC from left to right.  They pretty much agree on ridging in Alaska, our -EPO/+PNA feature, along with a ridge in northern Greenland and some ridging in northeastern Canada west
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