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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Short Story, a love story you can get behind

I am going to start working on a new short story, an extension of the first short story, "A love Story" the story of Marie and Walter living their dream lives in SW Florida.  Check out the first short story below.  Become a fan and interact with the author, JWN Productions, in the comment section, ask him questions. A couple, a love story.docx
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February to bring cold and snow to the New England coastline

Right now the pattern supports a cold and snowy regime with the PNA staying positive throughout the month, while the NAO stays positive, which means a rather progressive regime stays in place and we will likely see an oscillating AO pattern which produces some polar vortex lobes of energy to phase into the southern stream disturbances and that is how we get our nor'easters.  I am still suspect thinking on the Monday storm, right now models have a second piece of energy phasing into the eastern U
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Last President's Day Snowfall Map update number 3

This is the final map for this storm tomorrow, snow begins after 11 pm west zones in CT, 12 am for RI and 1 am for Eastern MA.  Heavy snow will overspread the area within an hour of starting, bands look to penetrate the Southern Coast of New England, with perhaps potentially 1"/hour rates for a time.  Snowfall map represents the heaviest QPF and snow outputs.  I think while I am aggressive, I think this will pay off.    
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MLB Update 2019 Season!

The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Red Sox are on pace for the second-most runs scored in a season since their 2003 team had 966 runs, they are on pace for 942 runs scored.
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Update on sports and plus a windy day on Tuesday possibly for SNE?

Sports update will come after Wednesday this upcoming new work week, I have to watch the latest forecasts for the early week period as a hybrid storm could bring significant impacts to SE New England Monday night into Tuesday night.  Right now models showing a surface low around 1004mb or lower impacting the region with widespread wind and rain issues.  Could become significant if given time over water.
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Ocean Effect Snow Map coming in a few hours

I can finally say with confidence, after watching the models the last four days the minute this threat come up, we are going to have our first Ocean Effect Snow event this season.  After watching the model data come in today, I will watch the models tonight, and after the GFS comes to pass, I will update the snowfall map I expect for Thanksgiving, the key is accumulations are likely.  Stay tuned!
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Snowstorm threat developing

**Winter Storm Alert** - development of a coastal nor'easter is becoming possible in the day 5-7 time frame - cold air looks to reenter the region as a cold front passes through sometime between the 27th and 28th of January followed by a nor'easter threat around the 29th - Region in most danger is Southern and Northern New England -danger level is low at this time, due to uncertainty, stay tuned!
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Succession of Clippers bring us a White Christmas!

Right now the storm for Sunday and Monday looks rather warm for SNE with a later phased stream bringing mainly rain to eastern SNE, especially the coastline.  However, I believe the models are having a problem identifying the +PNA and it is rather stout, +1 standard of deviation in the positive realm, leading to high ridging into Arctic Circle bringing cold air southeastward out of the reaches of central Canada.  The northern stream becomes quite amped up but too late on most of the guidance.  I
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12z EURO December 5th forecast analysis H5 pattern

These five images are the four most reliable guidance models we have in determining a snowstorm its track, intensity and future impacts to New England.  What they all agree on is the overall setup and teleconnections featured on December 5th, 2018 their forecast in the next 7 days.  The models show a classic El Nino pattern, with a sub-tropical jet cutoff low approaching or over the Baja, CA region, with a large +PNA ridging into Alaska and the NW Canada Territories.  The GFS is the furthest nor
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July 28th, 2019 MLB 2019 Season Update!

The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox are now on pace to score 947 runs this season, eclipsing their totals from the last ten seasons of Red Sox baseball.  They will be second to the 2003 Red Sox with the modern-day record of 966 runs scored the franchise record.  Not even last year's Sox had that many runs scored, and in fact, it would be over 100 runs better.  Last season, even with their amazing 108-54 record, their offense was never this potent, with breakout seasons by Bog
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2 or 3 Storms possible next week 25th through 31st

As of the 12z and 18z runs this morning and this afternoon suggest that we have three storm potentials this holiday week coming up.  With the NAO in flux, the PNA positive and the AO in flux, this is the best time to get snowstorms across the Northeastern US.  With the AO going negative long term and the PNA staying above neutral, we have a chance at transient ridges and shortwave amplification potential.  The first system is for Christmas Day, where an inverted trough/norlun trough bring accumu
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January 17th/18th Major Storm Threat

12z models trending towards a major coastal redeveloping nor'easter come next Tuesday into Wednesday.  NWS Taunton WFO has a 50% of snow in the forecast for Tuesday and 40% chance of snow for Wednesday, depending upon whether or not the trough closes off at H5 into a low will determine the duration of this winter storm, could be anywhere between 18-36 hours of snow
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My next update

My next weather update will come tomorrow morning after I see the 6z model cycle for my first snow fall map for tomorrow night's event
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A single Band of Ocean Effect Snows has developed

An ocean effect snow band has developed since 2 pm this afternoon, while staying offshore for most of the afternoon, this evening the band is producing moderate to heavy snow in squalls and perhaps some thundersnows are possible, the band is developing through surface convergence developing as winds are from the northeast to the right and north to the west of the band, this acts as a convergent band allowing lift and perhaps heavy snows developing over the Outer Cape Cod region with DBZs reachin
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Arctic shortwave could produce its own snow for Cape Cod next Thursday

Next Thursday, the 6z GFS has a large arctic shortwave that moves southeastward from James Bay, Canada with extremely cold air mass associated with it and a high north of the region and a storm southeast of the region putting the area in an inverted trough, with northeasterly winds enhancing snowfall from Plymouth, MA to Chatham, MA with up to .5" of QPF in spots.  I will wait until the short range models are in range, these systems are quite fickle in location and small in stature leading to cl
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New England Patriots 2019 Season could be the best Pats team ever!

I will post everything I am going to argue for a Patriots perfect season including winning the Super Bowl, and why with a certain player or two, the Patriots could have the most dynamic WR set in the NFL and perhaps Brady's career, even better than the Moss led corps of 2007.  Wednesday will be the latest to this post.
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12z GFS brings intrigue for New England Snow Lovers

Latest 12z GFS digs our northern stream shortwave even further southward now and develops a coastal storm just too far out to sea currently to bring substantial snows to Cape Cod.  But trends could continue towards favoring an actual closer to the coastline coastal low that could impact our area with snows.  Considering our northern stream is digging more than predicted today, this can bode well for later on mid-week period.  We need to watch the trends for today to see what the next week brings
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CONUS West Coast Ridging (ie:+PNA) could lead to winter coming in the next week or so

Next week could give SNE our first real shot at accumulating snow threats with at least two upcoming events in the next 10 days to start winter off the right way.  The GFS, EURO, and EPS mean all show favorable pattern showing up in the 3-10 day range giving SNE shots at snow finally.  With a stout +PNA ridge out west leading to northern stream disturbances diving southeastward out of Manitoba, and Saskatchewan Canada we could get a few timing issues fixed and phased super bombs could be produci
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December 13-14th Clipper Snowfall Map and Discussion

Thursday morning could bring our first snow fall accumulation of the season for Cape Cod and the Islands, a shortwave rounding the base of the H5 trough this evening will bring a shot of arctic air to the region where highs tomorrow and the rest of the work week will remain below freezing.  We now have a very potent vorticity max disturbance in the northern jet stream flow that will amplify some as it rounds the base of the somewhat negatively tilted trough over the Northeastern US.  Snow will b
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