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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

January 15-19th Second call snowfall map

This map is the combined storm threats the next four days, I included the Thursday storm because I believe that the models will come northwest with the coastal storm on Thursday enough to add a few inches to the forecast for Cape Cod.  I believe 12"+ will occur on the Cape, south and north shores of Boston, MA as this is combining all three events which it looks like all three will contribute 3-6" of snow to this part of the region.  Most of the rest of the region will be 6-9 or 9-12" from the W
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January 14/16th Snow event, Ocean Effect Snows

My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning.  Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table.  However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials.  First is the event Sunday through Monday.  Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impa
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Ocean Effect Snow Breakout and a Clipper/Coastal Storm next week

Latest NAM run 00z shows a strong potential for ocean effect snow event from the Cape Cod Canal eastward to Provincetown on northerly winds, also unidirectional wind flow from 900mb to the surface indicates a single band event is probable along with a strong instability burst from 850mb to surface ocean temperature differential (Delta Ts) of 18-20C which is sufficient enough to produce heavy snows over the Cape and Islands.  Also the flow is stronger than 10mph which should be sufficient enough
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January 17th/18th Major Storm Threat

12z models trending towards a major coastal redeveloping nor'easter come next Tuesday into Wednesday.  NWS Taunton WFO has a 50% of snow in the forecast for Tuesday and 40% chance of snow for Wednesday, depending upon whether or not the trough closes off at H5 into a low will determine the duration of this winter storm, could be anywhere between 18-36 hours of snow
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"Blizzard of 2018" Snow fall map final one

I added lollis of 24"+ to the map because I seriously think the storm hits the benchmark and pushes the snowfall further west, Hartford, CT to Boston, MA gets 12-24" of snow overall with less on the Cape and Nantucket due to more rain forecasted, this storm came west congrats people along and west of I95 corridor
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"Blizzard of 2018" "Storm of the Century"

Good evening folks,  This is my latest blog entry and the first official entry on the potential Blizzard of 2018, or Storm of the Century potential on January 3-5th 2018.  The first image is water vapor imagery taken as of this hour, it represents the different ebs and flows in our country.  Also it currently has three disturbances that will impact our storm potential this week.  The arctic disturbance is circled over NW Canada in a pink dot, the second disturbance is in red, the Pacific sh
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Preliminary Snow thoughts for this Weekend and snow map

What I am thinking preliminarily right now for this weekend as ocean effect snow gives way to a northern stream (arctic jet stream) disturbance running through the flow amps a bit as it reaches the East Coast of the US and perhaps tries to tilt negatively for a time this Friday and Saturday.  There are many different disturbances in the flow this weekend that could turn something meager into a beast of a storm.  The runs this weekend of showing a monster hit are no longer showing this due to the
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Snow this Weekend, Epic Blizzard, or coastal fail?

Today all options remain on the proverbial table.  Anything from an epic blizzard to a weak coastal is in store for this weekend.  NWS Taunton has a 1in10 chance snow map for 4" in my neighborhood, and a 1% chance at seeing 8"+ this weekend.  Let's discuss this major potential?
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December 25th Christmas Snowstorm Snow Map Final Call

Here is the more detailed snow map for the final call, I added an 8-12" amount region and a special 12" amounts region for the mountains of NW ME and N NH.  I think some of the mountains in northern ME could see 12-18" of snow considering nearby arctic air mass and ratios.  Also I added a blizzard conditions possible area and a high wind 60mph+ gusts area, mostly the ocean northeast of CHH, but includes CHH and the Outer Cape Cod area.  This storm will bomb out as it develops over the Cape Cod C
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2 or 3 Storms possible next week 25th through 31st

As of the 12z and 18z runs this morning and this afternoon suggest that we have three storm potentials this holiday week coming up.  With the NAO in flux, the PNA positive and the AO in flux, this is the best time to get snowstorms across the Northeastern US.  With the AO going negative long term and the PNA staying above neutral, we have a chance at transient ridges and shortwave amplification potential.  The first system is for Christmas Day, where an inverted trough/norlun trough bring accumu
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Snowstorm in the future???????????????

Somewhere in the pattern fluctuations, there is the potential for a snowstorm for Mid Atlantic and the Northeast come next week, after Monday or maybe on Monday the 25th, Christmas day onward as an arctic air mass invades from the central us towards the East Coast.  Teleconnections support a three day period for a snowstorm on the coast from about the 24th to 27th that week.  The pattern evolves to support a +PNA/-NAO and -AO all line up for a coastal storm, it could be a big QPF producer and ma
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Projects in Motion

My two opening works as a new coming writer, novelist, I am rewriting the first novel I wrote six months ago.  I could use some expertise from meteorologists
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Our Coastal Storm update 00z NAM and 21z SREFs

Yes more snow is on the way, and the latest models at 00z update are coming in with better results for our small but powerful coastal storm taking shape tomorrow off the Va Beach coastline and heading NEward, depends upon how far northwest this system comes in the short range will determine how much snow we get in the end
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My next update

My next weather update will come tomorrow morning after I see the 6z model cycle for my first snow fall map for tomorrow night's event
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December 13-14th Clipper Snowfall Map and Discussion

Thursday morning could bring our first snow fall accumulation of the season for Cape Cod and the Islands, a shortwave rounding the base of the H5 trough this evening will bring a shot of arctic air to the region where highs tomorrow and the rest of the work week will remain below freezing.  We now have a very potent vorticity max disturbance in the northern jet stream flow that will amplify some as it rounds the base of the somewhat negatively tilted trough over the Northeastern US.  Snow will b
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