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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Last week of October, beginning of November, cold returns, but does this mean first snow, or rain?

SO the models are showing frigid air entering the northern Plains sometime in the next ten days and that cold air filters into the eastern US by day 13-16, which is the 27th and beyond of October.  We could be seeing a change to much colder air eventually as winter gets closer.  Most of our storms this winter will be from the Oh Valley to the Mid Atlantic coastal storm tracks, signifying that miller Bs and not Miller As will be the normalcy this winter.
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December 25th Christmas Snowstorm Snow Map Final Call

Here is the more detailed snow map for the final call, I added an 8-12" amount region and a special 12" amounts region for the mountains of NW ME and N NH.  I think some of the mountains in northern ME could see 12-18" of snow considering nearby arctic air mass and ratios.  Also I added a blizzard conditions possible area and a high wind 60mph+ gusts area, mostly the ocean northeast of CHH, but includes CHH and the Outer Cape Cod area.  This storm will bomb out as it develops over the Cape Cod C
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ENSO conditions for this upcoming winter

Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter.  This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England.  Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location.  Coastal plain of New England co
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Two Intense EF-1 Tornadoes touchdown on Cape Cod

My experiences with extreme weather in the past have been hard to come by.  Living on the outer Cape Cod, our chances at tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.  However, the greatest chance at severe thunderstorms and including supercells occur only during the months of July and August.  Now, why is this important?  During the months of July and August the water temperatures in the ocean around Cape Cod, except to the southeast, have been warming substantially and are way above average for this tim
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Snowstorm in the future???????????????

Somewhere in the pattern fluctuations, there is the potential for a snowstorm for Mid Atlantic and the Northeast come next week, after Monday or maybe on Monday the 25th, Christmas day onward as an arctic air mass invades from the central us towards the East Coast.  Teleconnections support a three day period for a snowstorm on the coast from about the 24th to 27th that week.  The pattern evolves to support a +PNA/-NAO and -AO all line up for a coastal storm, it could be a big QPF producer and ma
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With SSTs way above average in the NW Atlantic Ocean, severe weather seems likely this weekend

Without a true marine layer influence this late summer day, we could see a major severe weather outbreak late on Friday night.  Shear and instability need to be checked but models show a very potent upper level low traversing the region late Friday afternoon swinging a cold front which will bring below normal temperatures through the area later this weekend into the early weekdays.  Stay tuned and listen to the latest from your NWS WFO.
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January 15-19th Second call snowfall map

This map is the combined storm threats the next four days, I included the Thursday storm because I believe that the models will come northwest with the coastal storm on Thursday enough to add a few inches to the forecast for Cape Cod.  I believe 12"+ will occur on the Cape, south and north shores of Boston, MA as this is combining all three events which it looks like all three will contribute 3-6" of snow to this part of the region.  Most of the rest of the region will be 6-9 or 9-12" from the W
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Winter Storm could bring first accumulating snows to SNE

Models are beginning to show signs of a potential winter storm in the 6-8 day period.  EURO and GGEM show this storm impacting SNE, with ocean effect snows and synoptic precip, the GGEM is a little warmer than the 00z EURO, which shows this potential as a trough swings through the upper level flow.  I have been keying on this potential as there appears to be a Quebec, Canada Arctic high in place north of the storm and north of NYS.  This will lock in the cold air at the surface into the coastlin
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Preliminary Snow Map for January 20-21st Nor'easter

The next name on the Weather Channel's annual Winter storm name's list is Winter Storm Harper, he is currently badgering the West Coast of the US.  Models bring his heavy precipitation and moisture to the New England area in the form of snow for most, and snow/rain mix southeast of BOS to Hartford line.  My snow map is the latest blend of guidance, and if the UKMET solution is right, I could be bust pretty low on the South Coast of MA, RI, and CT and it could be in the form of all snow in which
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Update! August 20th, 2019

My novel is progressing, we hope it will be finished before November 1st, 2019.  We could get it published as soon as Spring 2020.  Fingers crossed! As for my NFL predictions release, that won't come until the first day of NFL games, which is two weeks from Thursday, September 5th.  I will release my thoughts than, stay tuned! Another thing, Josh Gordon is dealing with something far greater than substance abuse issues.  Most people who suffer drug or alcohol addiction are trying to mas
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Comparing the last two GFS runs for fantasy storms

This is the 500mb imagery from the 12z GFS, from hours 300 to 384, these eight images suggest a powerful nor'easter takes about 150 mile path east of Boston, MA as a 968mb low, an offshore storm favoring the coastal regions of New England around December 16th 2017, about 15 days from now.  
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Nor'easter to bring ferocious winds

NAM and its parallel model both show extensive potential for ferocious wind gusts on Tuesday late morning through the afternoon hours.  there remains a window of 6-12 hours where winds could gust as high as 105mph according to the NAM model.  Stay tuned for further updates.
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"Dawn Awakening", the first edition is available to read

If you heard the names of Franklin, Gert and Harvey, you would think, hey those are just general names and nothing bad to think about here, but you put a hurricane in front and now you have, Hurricane Franklin, Hurricane Gert, and Hurricane Harvey, now you have built in fear.  What if the US was in an unprecedented times, the weather was king and the oceans were warming without the impacts of global warming, nope Solar radiation was normal, so it can be that, no what if you were a meteorologist
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"Dawn Awakening: The Apocalypse is Now"

"Dawn Awakening: The Apocalypse is Now", is a heart wrenching tale about the end of the world through the study of geology.  Together we will experience, life, death and destruction of the world in a process known as the, "Earth Core Pulse", a theory I created on an epic energetic pulse of ultimate energy emanating from the Earth's Core throughout the faults of the Earth, and where it all starts, the Philippines, explodes into dust and heat is generated throughout the oceans as various earthquak
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**12z Model Update for storm this weekend**

Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday.  We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.  Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from T
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Update 2: August 20th, 2019

Fireworks have begun for Tom Brady and his list of WR weapons on the outside.  With Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman back yesterday at practice, today the Patriots get tremendous news that Demaryius Thomas has returned to practice after suffering from a horrible Achilles tear injury last season with the Texans.  After signing a one-year deal with the Patriots, Thomas has returned to action and is officially taken off the PUP list.  This adds another veteran weapon on the outside at a size of 6'3"
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Miller B Snowstorms and their tracks are important, I will tell you why

There are two kinds of tracks that impact the severity of a New England blizzard, one is the NJ track, where a surface low is west of the Apps and combines with southern energy and develops a coastal storm off the New Jersey Coastline.  Normally these primary systems with NJ coastal die off before they reach eastward or northward and combine with the coastal energy to form a monster snowstorm for Cape Cod.  The second track of this type of snowstorm is the Cape Hatteras track.  Now when the prim
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3z SREFs mean remains bullish for Snow on Cape Cod

3z SREFs has a mean snowfall of 6.45" over HYA from tomorrow evening through Monday evening.  Some members are over 20" of snow and half are about 12"+, so there is a lot of spread in the means, and plus while the 00z EURO didn't show much precipitation over Cape and Islands, the model did up the ante with the upper level low and the surface low strengthening.  Also, the HRRR 6z run shows a lot of lightning developing with the surface low as it reaches the coastline, this could impact the surfac
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