Here's a recap of the 2013 tornado season across the Northeast.
Connecticut had four reports of tornadoes during 2013, which is roughly twice the average amount of about two. Keep in mind that 2012 had no tornadoes in the state, so one could argue that this was nature's way of balancing itself out.
Elsewhere, New Jersey was the only other state in the Northeast with above average tornado reports. (They average two per year, but had three in 2013) Maine is not pictured here, but Maine had at le
Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. Blowing and drifting snow made it difficult to obtain an accurate measurement. Some towns had multiple reports and totals that appeared to be too high based off of surrounding reports were not used.
Some warm-advection snow lifted into Connecticut as early as the ni
Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered.
A clipper system that gave way to a coastal low just south of Long Island resulted in generally 2 to 4 inches of snow across the state. There were a few localized totals of just over 4 inches, but there were no reports over 5.0 inches. The highest totals were across
Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. It should be noted that some of the reports include sleet.
A general 4 to 8 inch snowfall blanketed the state before a changeover to sleet and in some cases freezing rain/rain. Very few totals deviated from that range, except for a few 8"+ reports in northwester
For far western areas along I-81 between I-64 and OKV
An area of low pressure will move out of the northern Gulf of Mexico and up the east coast tomorrow and Wednesday. As it does, light precipitation will begin to overspread the area early tomorrow morning and will increase in intensity throughout the day … before beginning to taper during the overnight and possibly end as a period of snow Wednesday.
Initially, there will be just enough cold air in place for some spotty flurries during the p
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a cycle of zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere with a period that varies between 24 and 30 months. This oscillation is a product of downward propagating alternating wind regimes. The current method of monitoring this oscillation is through an index, calculated by the zonal wind anomaly at 30hPa averaged along the equator. This method excludes information on the vertical structure of winds in the stratosphere, and presents the QBO as a one-dimensional
I have been really slacking as of late on the blogging ... hoping to fix that!
Mediocre line of storms developed over the central Shenandoah Valley this afternoon and prompted a local blue box from Sterling around Charlottesville. There was a single report of wind damage in the city limits as well ... so congrats Sterling on the verification. Another line of storms lies further west from west-central Illinois through IND and down into LEX/central Kentucky ... high level blow off from this act
An upper level trough across the Great Lakes is associated with areas of surface low pressure in and around New York State. Bands of showers and thunderstorms have been pinwheeling through the eastern United States as a result. By afternoon, more organized thunderstorm development is expected and some storms could become severe.
Isolated severe thunderstorm threat...
Low pressure is spinning across New York State. An area of increased wind shear is in place along the east of the Appalachians.
Low pressure develops across Pennsylvania later today and I am expecting at least some isolated severe thunderstorms across the region.
Isolated thunderstorm threat...
Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with just some high clouds across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Daytime heating is expected to push surface temperatures well into the 80's along with dew-points that are already in the upper 60's to lower 70's. In the warm sector well ahead of a cold front (east of the Appalachi
An area of low pressure is expected to come out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the east coast, while another disturbance approaches us from the West in the Thursday - Saturday time frame. These two systems will attempt to pump in a rich plume of moisture from the south and east, setting the stage for heavy downpours with any showers and thunderstorms that develop. No widespread severe weather is expected, but I would not rule out an isolated tornado with this system(s) ... with a somewhat favorabl
I generally stay away from opinion posts in this blog, but the events that transpired yesterday deserve attention.
First, I think that it needs to be pointed out that chasers and spotters provide invaluable information to the National Weather Service in the form of ground truth. This is a concept that most of the general public (and even some meteorologists) on the East Coast do not fully understand. Without these folks burning their personal gas, warning lead times could be substantially dif
Two tornadoes (an EF-2 and an EF-1) touched down in eastern New York on Wednesday, both around 7:00 p.m., according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
The stronger tornado, an EF-2, had winds of up to 125 MPH and caused damage along a relatively wide and long path. The tornado width was estimated at 1 mile wide with a track length of 17 miles from Florida to Rotterdam.
The second tornado formed just to the southwest of the EF-2 tornado, around the same time. It was a weaker and shorter-liv
As a warm front lifts into the Northeastern United States on Wednesday, a warmer, more humid air-mass floods into the Northeast. Some thunderstorm development is forecast and some of those storms may be capable of reaching severe limits, particularly across portions of New York and west-central New England.
Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms)
Interior New England, New York, northwestern New Jersey and norther Pennsylvania:
As a warm front clears, an increas
As a warm front lifts into the Northeastern United States on Wednesday, some thunderstorm development is forecast and some of those storms may be capable of reaching severe limits.
Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms)
Central Pennsylvania and portions of Maryland:
A warm front is expected to lift into the Northeast on Wednesday. The focus is across the warm sector where some strong wind shear combines with surface/low-level instability to enhance the severe
The National Weather Service (NWS) reported that an EF-0 tornado touched down in eastern Massachusetts Thursday afternoon, shortly after 4:30 p.m.
An upper level low lifted northward through New England on Thursday. An unseasonably cold air mass was in place, resulting in cold temperatures aloft. It was the combination of low Lifted Condensation Levels (LCL's) and moderate wind shear aloft that helped create an environment that was marginally supportive of tornado development. It is possible th
As a cold front moves towards the East Coast on Saturday, some thunderstorm development is possible during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms)
Mid-Atlantic region (east of Appalachians), lower Hudson Valley and SW New England.
Conditions will destabilize in a warm, somewhat moist air-mass before an approaching cold front swings from west to east through the area. The biggest question mark is how much daytime heating wi
I've been creating daily 6-day forecasts for the better part of this year, with a focus on inland Connecticut. Before making any forecast, I take a close look at the computer model forecasts through Day 6, including a few forecast techniques to see how verification pans out. In April, I had 29 days worth of data, out of a possible 30, to measure forecast accuracy.
As expected, forecast error generally increases with time. It is interesting to note a spike at Day 5 and a decrease at Day 6. That
A cold front is forecast to move from west to east across the East Coast on Wednesday. The result could mean scattered thunderstorms along the front, along with a few severe thunderstorms.
(Marginal threat)
Middle Appalachians into DE, PA, inland NJ and interior NY.
A similar setup to this past Friday is expected on Wednesday, with a cold front moving across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. The only difference here is that the cold front is not as strong as that scenario (last
The National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that an EF-1 tornado touched down in New York state Friday evening, shortly before 8 p.m.
A strong cold front moved across Pennsylvania and New York state late Friday evening. At the same time, a marginally unstable air-mass was in place closer to the surface. With moderate to strong wind shear in place and significant storm relative helicity in place, the stage was set for damaging winds and even a marginal tornado threat.
As a result, a Tornado Wa
A strong cold front approaches the Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Along that cold front, a squall line with thunderstorms is currently expected is develop.
(Marginal threat)
Middle Appalachians into Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey and interior New York:
Daytime heating is expected to push temperatures into the low to mid-70's in the valley locations with mid to upper 60's in the higher elevations. Low and mid-level clouds will likely limit just how unstable the atmosphere c
A strong low pressure system is forecast to move up into the Great Lakes by Thursday and eventually into southeastern Canada late Friday into Saturday. A potent cold front associated with this storm will move towards the Appalachians by the second half of Friday. (For Wednesday and Thursday, severe thunderstorm activity is probable for the Mississippi Valley and portions of the western Ohio River Valley.
I see a marginal setup for severe storms from Central N.Y. into the middle Appalachians. Ev
Going to make this one short and sweet ...
Longer range guidance showing signs of another round of 75-85 degree temps possible early next week for some?
There is a great competition called Virtual Storm Chase that has been given new life (for bragging rights only). This is the same competition that was started over on the old wxchat forums several years ago (mid 2000s). For those that do not know what it is, I have a attached a PDF copy of the rules below. It is a great learning experience for those interested in severe weather forecasting and a great way for even meteorologists to keep sharp.
http://virtualstormchase.info
The site "appears
