Thursday morning could bring our first snow fall accumulation of the season for Cape Cod and the Islands, a shortwave rounding the base of the H5 trough this evening will bring a shot of arctic air to the region where highs tomorrow and the rest of the work week will remain below freezing. We now have a very potent vorticity max disturbance in the northern jet stream flow that will amplify some as it rounds the base of the somewhat negatively tilted trough over the Northeastern US. Snow will b
GFS/NAM/EURO all point to a short duration about 6-10 hour window for heavy snow on Monday, this is the threat map I designed showing where the heaviest snows will likely be. Again initial map.
There are two camps for the scenarios on the midweek storm potential for December 12-14th 2017. I will illustrate them below. Scenario One is a full blown Blizzard from NYC to BOS to Bangor, ME. Scenario Two favors the Great Lakes and NNE with the heaviest snows. Which one happens will be determined by jet dynamics, phase potential, and baroclinic zone potential placement as well as track of clipper and arctic shortwave troughs in the flow. Scenarios are not forecasts, they are there to sho
I have a narrow swath of accumulating snow of about 4-6" from western CT and MA to Downeast ME where I think the best cold air source and moisture combination remains as models have come in extremely amplified over the last 12 hours. Remember this is not the final map, I will issue that Friday evening
00z models show some moving southeastward with the snow threat this weekend and the GFS and CMC bring a coastal nor'easter threat and clipper threat to the Northeast next week, I will have an update after I wake up in the morning and then again after the 12z runs.
Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday. We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from T
Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday. We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from T
6z GFS produces over a foot of snow for my location in the next week, it combines the first storm on December 9th and something after it on December 11th, still 72 hours before the first flakes or drops
While I am sounding the alarm currently for preparations, I am not sold on the current solution in the model consensus. WE have explosive dynamics coming into play that the models are overlooking currently. First we have arctic air spilling over the Gulf Stream gradient, that is so useful for nor'easters. Second we have an arctic jet disturbance that is so amplified and caught in a very amplified flow the trough will move into a negative tilted state. This will allow extreme cyclogenesis to
These images on top are from the 18z GFS run tonight, from hours 300-348, they show the evolution of our southern stream disturbance phasing with the large northern stream long wave trough, acting as at least a double phased jet structured storm if not three jets with the arctic jet also getting involved. Only triple phased streams allow a 940mb surface low to develop over DE ME. Could a storm of this magnitude evolve in this pattern for mid month? Absolutely, but how accurate is the model?
This is the 500mb imagery from the 12z GFS, from hours 300 to 384, these eight images suggest a powerful nor'easter takes about 150 mile path east of Boston, MA as a 968mb low, an offshore storm favoring the coastal regions of New England around December 16th 2017, about 15 days from now.
As a weather weenie, what separates our love for the weather from most people on this Earth? What triggers our emotional senses when a snowstorm doesn't go our way? What do we know of ourselves that makes us love the snow? Simply put, it is our passion. We love it as much as the next person loves candy, or his or her Boyfriend or girlfriend. We love the weather because we are passionate about it as much as we are curious when it doesn't follow our projections. So why tell you this? Becaus
The forecast for snow and cold looks dim the next 10 days, however beyond that time period, looks to the first real chance at a snowy and cold regime over New England and at least as far south as the 38N latitude line. Anyone south of that latitude needs to wait until further into January time frame, but for those of us north of that latitude, the pattern change is being seen by most of the guidance after day 7-9 time frame, it looks like after December 4th an arctic front swings through the No
If you want to help with writing a movie script about the end of the world you can help me out, just add your email address I will email you a copy of the character list and the start to my new movie script I am writing. SO I can use anyone with experience or with the love to write and who is dedicated to writing a masterpiece of art. Thanks!
James Warren Nichols Productions
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Cape Cod has not had a real snowstorm on Thanksgiving since my birth year, 28 years ago on Thanksgiving. I was supposed to be baptized in the Roman Catholic Church a few months after my birth, which happened to be Thanksgiving week. However, we had a great snowstorm that dumped almost a foot and a half of snow. My parents have pictures they showed us growing up. I have always wanted a white Thanksgiving and Christmas in the same year, wouldn't that be fascinating if this was the year? Troub
Anyone want to cowrite a movie script with me, I am open to most replies. Tomorrow I am working on character names and design. Help me out, just email at [email protected] or instant message me at USCAPEWEATHERAF on this site, thanks looking for the first few replies. So be the first one to reply.
James Warren Nichols Productions
Ok, remember the last few posts have been about the past, well today's blog is about the future. IN the next 8-10 days periods of cold and rain are possible with a few mix events, but the main event looks to be in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe for New England storm system. Questions remain, but the gist of the future is that a potential coastal storm is looming. Currently models are not far enough south with the low, so it appears it will be a rain event, but with a Greenland block and PNA ri
Remembering a blizzard that I believed to be epic was not so long ago where I can't remember any details. This one was two about to be three winters ago. The winter of 2014-2015 was boring and dull as well as rarely cold to start, the first month of that winter was warm and boring. Christmas Day was warm, it was raining and in the 50s, cleared by the afternoon. Cape Cod winters are not promised a thing snowfall wise. However, since the winter of 2002-2003 winters have been kinder to the sno
