12z and 18z models beginning to indicate a secondary shortwave riding up the coastline forming a coastal storm on the frontal boundary and could become quite potent
-winter storm threat is increasing as models gain confidence in what disturbance will do what on Sunday through Tuesday
-Snow threat remains high, models increasing precipitation into the region as a frontal boundary plows offshore and the coastal low develops into a powerful nor'easter
-as Nor'easter develops a potent
**Winter Storm Alert**
- development of a coastal nor'easter is becoming possible in the day 5-7 time frame
- cold air looks to reenter the region as a cold front passes through sometime between the 27th and 28th of January followed by a nor'easter threat around the 29th
- Region in most danger is Southern and Northern New England
-danger level is low at this time, due to uncertainty, stay tuned!
I could see how Cape Cod could end up with more snow from both systems than say Springfield MA if the coastal storm on Wednesday takes a more southeasterly path
This map is the combined storm threats the next four days, I included the Thursday storm because I believe that the models will come northwest with the coastal storm on Thursday enough to add a few inches to the forecast for Cape Cod. I believe 12"+ will occur on the Cape, south and north shores of Boston, MA as this is combining all three events which it looks like all three will contribute 3-6" of snow to this part of the region. Most of the rest of the region will be 6-9 or 9-12" from the W
Three snow threats this week, all pointed out in the two graphics below the second one to the right is the dual coastal storm threat combined snow fall totals expected
As of 1215am EST clouds are building over the Outer Cape Cod area, the next 24 hours should bring some accumulating snows to the area east of Hyannis, MA
My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning. Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table. However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials. First is the event Sunday through Monday. Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impa
Latest NAM run 00z shows a strong potential for ocean effect snow event from the Cape Cod Canal eastward to Provincetown on northerly winds, also unidirectional wind flow from 900mb to the surface indicates a single band event is probable along with a strong instability burst from 850mb to surface ocean temperature differential (Delta Ts) of 18-20C which is sufficient enough to produce heavy snows over the Cape and Islands. Also the flow is stronger than 10mph which should be sufficient enough
12z models trending towards a major coastal redeveloping nor'easter come next Tuesday into Wednesday. NWS Taunton WFO has a 50% of snow in the forecast for Tuesday and 40% chance of snow for Wednesday, depending upon whether or not the trough closes off at H5 into a low will determine the duration of this winter storm, could be anywhere between 18-36 hours of snow
I added lollis of 24"+ to the map because I seriously think the storm hits the benchmark and pushes the snowfall further west, Hartford, CT to Boston, MA gets 12-24" of snow overall with less on the Cape and Nantucket due to more rain forecasted, this storm came west congrats people along and west of I95 corridor
Good evening folks,
This is my latest blog entry and the first official entry on the potential Blizzard of 2018, or Storm of the Century potential on January 3-5th 2018. The first image is water vapor imagery taken as of this hour, it represents the different ebs and flows in our country. Also it currently has three disturbances that will impact our storm potential this week. The arctic disturbance is circled over NW Canada in a pink dot, the second disturbance is in red, the Pacific sh
What I am thinking preliminarily right now for this weekend as ocean effect snow gives way to a northern stream (arctic jet stream) disturbance running through the flow amps a bit as it reaches the East Coast of the US and perhaps tries to tilt negatively for a time this Friday and Saturday. There are many different disturbances in the flow this weekend that could turn something meager into a beast of a storm. The runs this weekend of showing a monster hit are no longer showing this due to the
Today all options remain on the proverbial table. Anything from an epic blizzard to a weak coastal is in store for this weekend. NWS Taunton has a 1in10 chance snow map for 4" in my neighborhood, and a 1% chance at seeing 8"+ this weekend. Let's discuss this major potential?
During the next 48 hours, the Tug Hill Plateau could receive up to 5 feet of new snow. This is the BUF snowfall map with the legend showing >48" of snow likely in the forecast map
Here is the more detailed snow map for the final call, I added an 8-12" amount region and a special 12" amounts region for the mountains of NW ME and N NH. I think some of the mountains in northern ME could see 12-18" of snow considering nearby arctic air mass and ratios. Also I added a blizzard conditions possible area and a high wind 60mph+ gusts area, mostly the ocean northeast of CHH, but includes CHH and the Outer Cape Cod area. This storm will bomb out as it develops over the Cape Cod C
Here is the second updated map version for our storm on Monday (Christmas Day) has everyone done their Christmas shopping, I am doing mine last minute today.
As of the 12z and 18z runs this morning and this afternoon suggest that we have three storm potentials this holiday week coming up. With the NAO in flux, the PNA positive and the AO in flux, this is the best time to get snowstorms across the Northeastern US. With the AO going negative long term and the PNA staying above neutral, we have a chance at transient ridges and shortwave amplification potential. The first system is for Christmas Day, where an inverted trough/norlun trough bring accumu
Somewhere in the pattern fluctuations, there is the potential for a snowstorm for Mid Atlantic and the Northeast come next week, after Monday or maybe on Monday the 25th, Christmas day onward as an arctic air mass invades from the central us towards the East Coast. Teleconnections support a three day period for a snowstorm on the coast from about the 24th to 27th that week. The pattern evolves to support a +PNA/-NAO and -AO all line up for a coastal storm, it could be a big QPF producer and ma
My two opening works as a new coming writer, novelist, I am rewriting the first novel I wrote six months ago. I could use some expertise from meteorologists
So everyone put in the comment section how you fell in love with snow, rain, wind, hurricanes, blizzards and all the above when it comes to the weather?
Yes more snow is on the way, and the latest models at 00z update are coming in with better results for our small but powerful coastal storm taking shape tomorrow off the Va Beach coastline and heading NEward, depends upon how far northwest this system comes in the short range will determine how much snow we get in the end
