Typhoon Tip

yeah, no question there. you know there's a chance we could mix some. the NAM's grid has mid BL winds over 20 kts from the SW at 18z. might just get it done

It's going to be an interesting challenge for the feeble early January sun. 50 is a 32 F recovery for a lot of these locales around here. Easier done even a month from now.

ah yeah. no did not loop it. I was in fact knee jerk reacting to that as a scalar "nice looking set up". Which if we didn't know the history, I would still argue that doesn't look that good. However, upon knowing/looping, yeah we can see that the wind barbs along and off the EC are pivoting toward more SW from W/WSW direction.. That's some slowing of the progressive aspect; probably going to be enough to allow that WI knife to 'catch up'. Still don't like the QUE position up there but probably what happens is there's a potent result with a very sharp N deform axis type deal

nah, too positively sloped overall. those wave spaces are negatively interfering with one another. it's not those that is the problem... it's big to small that's the issue. There's not enough s/w ridging rolling out ahead of the whole structure... The flow is angular but flat leaving the eastern sea-board. It's doing that because the flow was originally more ridged there, and then it got compressed... so the flow is fast/too fast, such that when that amplitude then arrives, it can differentiate the field and cause WAA to form which then creates the S/W ridging... this is complex to explain and most people don't get it. they just get angry and think your trolling but that's going anywhere very special wit that leading

man these operational runs are all fucked up with wave spacing/interference schemes. The indexes nailed this period... well, so far - nothings verified yet. But the +PNA, however west biased or whatever is going to happen. Anyway, the best fit for the amplifying +PNA at mid month is actually the 24th phantom system on the GFS' 00z. But by then, the +PNA is in a state of decay - which is also not a certainty anyway. It's like we should be seeing a 24th type look on the 14-15-16 period but the field is mired down by wave space issues which is stopping that from happening. The 00z GFS was dubious with that 970mb micro cyclone. It's nice eye candy sitting there with category 2 hurricane winds and choke snow a stones through E of Logan like that, but whenever you see a system that is dimensional-challenged in the midst of a large/huge amplification like that it is always suspect and pretty much never happens. It's like the model physics are responding to the immense volatility of the total pattern, and then that triggers a systems not well coupled to the that larger field - otherwise...the system should be larger. Like the 20fukum4th! uh-nnoying. You can see the wave interference in the ens means of both the EPS and GEFs. There is a deep anomaly at the longitude of the Tenn. Valley on the 15th, and then while the ridge stays fixed in position out west, the nadir is suddenly repositioned back toward St Louise on the 17th. That's indicative of wave contention in the means. That's prooobably why they have been having issues getting more coherent with any cyclone signals.

https://phys.org/news/2026-01-ocean-temperatures-high.html

Slightly colder run again but moving too fast would mitigate

Actually... "DE"phasing is more the problem ... the flow splitting because the +PNA ridge is biased west is actually blanketing the entire region down stream over the continent in a negative interference - it's just another form of shear stressing

So I'm looking for the 15th S/W spacing and it's not even in our hemisphere until 30+ hours ... that circle in the top left half way to Japan appears to trace. Yeah, about as close to 100% chance that this things going to morph all over hell and gone before we need to worry about it

Everyone's hung up on phasing for some reason... I was under the impression this 15th ish was Miller A Those aren't phases usually until the get past our latitudes; the clio on Mill As is that they get captured near NS or NF and then we see why Baffin Island is basically just big bald barren rock. personally I haven't seen much evidence that this was going to be a subsume or any other type of phasing ?

yup, Euro ridge more eclipsing the WC and we see some improvements aloft ( 500 mb evolution) downstream.

Euro ridge more eclipsing the WC and we see some improvements aloft ( 500 mb evolution) downstream. Not sure where this is going but at 156 this is a better set up for the mid monther heh, wrong thread -

It all evades the real pertinent question for me... why do posters reference those out side this medium like that. Doing so usually couched in a some opinionated bio over how awesome they are Maybe just because of what Brian said? When reality provides a lower dopa potency, people hump delusions of grandeur for their high haha

and it works on a post-modern population's "highly analytical/objective" perception and subsequent court of public opinion, too.

Yeah it's all conservation of momentum and wave mechanics. With a stouter ridge around 110 W ( say ...), the azimuth of the diving S/W is steeper, and that also constructively feedsback on the total amplitude as the L/W and S/W mechanics are in sync so in short, strong S/W ... to which negative tilting is a part of that characteristic