Typhoon Tip

yeah, Vortex95 mentioned that earlier… I asked if that had any norlun signature in the sounding to it … Not an exact match, but did kind of look that way. No answer, but I haven’t gone to look myself.

I’ve seen that before… That’s 2 to 3” Then, if you get five on top of that boom, you’ve got a warning 8 inches in 24 hours I think that’s the rule don’t quote me

It’s interesting that the NAM blossom’s little region of pre snows… The mechanics are very similar to what happened today actually… then the system comes up underneath and just melds right into that

NAM was west of 18z

That’s a good description for what we had today. The particles falling really really slow. Even the big ones floating. Yet I get out there and it was like the best snowball fight snow ever.

You’re not wrong about that…

“Relax man“? - you do succeed at one thing, dissuading me from even wanting to read that thing

Nah not seeing a reason for negative attitude on that beyond the 25th no way… First of all the ridge axis associated with that positive PNA is perfectly climatologically aligned in terms of longitude. Anything that gets ejected each of that feature will end up west of that trough as depicted in the EPS mean that Brooklyn’ provided. But it’s not just that spatial reasoning and a-priori aspect, the index is numerological ie pure mathematics. It’s like we’re mathematically sounding an alarm and we have at least a reasonable footprint in the spatial structure out there? But you know yeah ..,we have the last 10 years of Stockholm syndrome and so non-believability is too easy because of that. I can understand that If we change the indexes and that scaffolding starts to mutate, etc., no problem You know, frankly, I made the glib prediction back in early September that we would have an early loaded winter followed by a sputtering January and then a flowery February. Granted there’s a lot heuristics with that … Still I think it might be difficult to hold onto this favorable look that deep into February. Much beyond the first week you guys are on your own.

Meanwhile the numerical indices are even more aggressive with the month's end -week signal. Don't mean to come off a way about it but ... I'm not personally worried about a random Euro run or two, two weeks before said index window ... Based on those, this operational run is an outlier for it's last 7 days. If the indexes change that's another story but the current divorced operational Euro is really too excessive for belief. Either it corrects ... or the less likely, seldom seen wholesale mass backed indexes go toward a single operational paranoid run. haha

fit's the NAM's NW bias ... but actually, that bias is more 36-60 hours so not sure in this case. hm

what's the sounding like at that time ... kind of has a norlun look to it but there's some cyclostrophic banded structure too so not entirely.

Mmm no. That's a black box description. It doesn't describe the gears of the model. You can believe what you like. You are fundamentally wrong about the bold unless the exact "math" of the model machinery is describe, unambiguously. Stats and history don't describe the systems that produced them, btw - you're making my point.

well, you and others are doing fine, too. I mean we'll see? we've seen unusual behaviors where varying elaboration/coherence morph before there can be a realized event. That's been a thing in recency ( decadal ). The telecons come in and out of signal, doing so before there's been enough time to realize correlated events. fascinating if frustrating. So for now ...it is what it is

Quickly nearing advisory verification here... S vis est .75 mi 2.25" 33 deg

Well ... for starters, I gave you plenty - and so did others: no one can (apparently) define the discrete processes in the construct of these tools. For all we know, if they ever succeed(fail) it may just be dumb fuck luck. This situation is no different. This is the logical and the correct approach. It certainly may come off as a trophy wave time - firstly, nothing's happened yet. Secondly, even these tools wavered E at one time or the other over the last 30 hour's worth of cycles. So they are back? I can tell you meteorologically why these runs are coming back, without using "blind" model methods - which they are ... until such time as these organization(s) et all put out knowledge-based tell-out educational prospecti about the math and philosophies of these instruments. Until that happens, you'll get burned one day, eventually ... if you don't know what it is you are dealing with.