Typhoon Tip

I realize there's a drought meme popularity that's vying for second place behind this other sweeping notion that some grand Disclosure ( the extent of which assuredly will trigger an ontological shock ) is looming... But so far, at least around here? absolutely 0 physical manifestation of any problem with water deficit. We go through this every year - promoted by U.S. Drought Monitoring and their primary sales agent, Kevin, emceeing a desiccation presentation... And, we also read this every year, too: "We go through this every year" Yet, y'all just can't wait to pack the reception hall for his brilliant geophysical Ted Talk on the matter... I guess it's an easy audience. We become stimulation junkies at a species level. In the absence of even vaguely legitimate reasons for concern from just about any agency for triggering at all, we're creating urgency.

Our fields are fine... Still with verdant green. In fact, Devens field - where there's ongoing Field Hockey and Soccer tournaments - is still uniform green across the 1/3 mile expanse. Granted it won't last ... and getting rain in timely dosing would also help longevity. But over the years, quite consistent with seasonality the fields and lawns will all but inevitably become stressed - some years less than others, earlier or later, but figure by mid summer as an average. Which we are only 30 days from as the Met crow flies, anyway. I realize there's no super cells, or blinding heat, or what-have-you loading syringes of dystopian dopa for your excitement addiction requirements, but tough. Sometimes you just have to endure nice days. Holy shit -

Some form of a severe threat, or just some weird anachronistic cyclone for this time of year with a lot of wind Thursday Emerging yet still vague heat signal after the 25th

89/56

Oh, I think I know what he meant - it just wasn’t at first clear he meant the 3 SD itself

except for those two peaks that are higher

I'm kinda bustin balls. Truth be told, not sure what the convective temp/sequencing is. We may just need another hour of heating, which can happen at this time of year until 5:30 really. I tell you what, on a separate note high heat a day after severe convection anywhere around here is definitely a Gretta effect -

boring and hot nothingness chasing ? ooh, make sure to get some videos

Again ... Brian's sarcasm is well placed and probably needed as a dose of reality, but I contend that the image of the pattern as a skewing force. The constant bombardment of model engagement is tinting perceptions perhaps. As I've been pointing out, there's a bit of a disconnect that's been evolving over particularly the last 20 years, where the pattern and the temperature results seem unmatched. Take next week on the GFSX machine. All SNE sites, BDL-MHT, are between 81 and 84. That's climo resulting from a pattern that looks below normal. Add to that, as we get out to D3..4, those numbers get increasingly weighted by climatology, so... any 84 next Thursday could very well actually be upper 80s... Now we're talking above normal in a below normal looking pattern. But people are only remembering the pattern at the end of the months. This is how perception divorces reality - or at least one way in which the observer is kind of manipulated.

Yeah, I hear ya. Fact of the matter is...we also have not yet to experienced a synergistic/resonant feed-back heat scenario in this region of continent. They're actually studied in climate as "synergistic heat waves" world over. I may be that we can't. We might just have too many goephysical traits that make that less able to happen here, but like western Europe and Australia, the steppe of the Urals and over in Russia ... Chinese Asia... The Pacific NW in 2020 is an example of that, where carried on for 10 days at some 35+ for high temps.

Yeah, we did that in March of 2012 pretty sure

el dependent? KBTV GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/12/2026 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19|SAT CLIMO N/X 64 86| 63 85| 58 75| 55 75| 55 83| 63 77| 60 75| 56 55 76 TMP 71 79| 71 77| 62 69| 61 69| 63 76| 68 71| 64 69| 61 DPT 56 52| 57 60| 51 46| 48 46| 51 53| 58 57| 54 50| 51 CLD CL PC| PC OV| OV OV| PC PC| PC PC| OV OV| OV PC| PC WND 10 10| 11 13| 10 8| 9 10| 9 18| 19 19| 18 13| 10 P12 13 6| 20 74| 55 9| 25 20| 23 25| 39 61| 44 31| 24 32 31 P24 13| 85| 57| 30| 37| 78| 51| 48 Q12 0 0| 0 3| 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 5| | Q24 0| 3| 1| 0| 0| 4| | T12 2 6| 12 37| 19 3| 7 8| 7 9| 17 19| 17 14| 10 T24 | 12 | 44 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 24 | 16

Indeed... old Sol is doing a decent job at eroding the grunge. Gone partly sunny here and the higher res vis imagery suggests we'll see more sun going forward. Temps 'll likely respond

DP's may be growing ( and they are in fact... no "may be" about it) in the longer term average/mean, but they seem to not coincide ( necessarily) when the kinetic temperature is very large - as well. That's probably the sticking point in perception. Particularly true around here. We don't seem to couple say... 76 dp, with 98 nearly as frequently as the same latitude out over N IA/IL for example. It's not like our sun is weaker. There's some sort of geo-physical feedback here that gets in the way of that. Like the baseline PNAP ( Perennial North American Pattern, which refers to the the rest state) affixes a non-linear component of forcing that is ( as "non-linearity" implies) not really very discerned on a daily weather chart but is always lurking, and does manifest in subtle ways. Such as, ...our highest heat ends up coming over top, where it then has to come d-slope. That's just one possible way in which our region hides the biggest DP days from coinciding from the bigger kinetic delivery days. Another possibility ... because we are the continental anus of just about every circulation mode there is with the exception of the EC paralleling "Bahama Blue" pattern ( rarer), that means we have the entire 2,500 miles of accumulated organic and inorganic ( man-made) particulate aspects that can inhibit a purer solar radiation transfer. All these aspect make any linear interpretation of climate kind of fragile when considering things at a deeper level.

We're teeing off at 7:30 tomorrow morning. Not a big fan of Saturday morning early anything frankly ... buuut, fairways under sun you could swear you can hear sizzling makes even 82 F a bad golfing experience.