Typhoon Tip

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-overshooting-15c-climate-inevitable-chief.html

12z GEFs continues the trend to increase anomaly settling into the M/A ... Here's the 180 hour regardless of whether there's a fusion of TC or TC guts into this scenario ...that's an important coastal signal on its own.

seriously tho...that GGEM solution is exactly what we were discussing early about the hybrid and/or fusion scenario being possible given that ..compendium of indicators. See? all you have to do when in ennui is bitch and complain about it -

I beat y'all to that ha

This is precariously close to a capture in this 12z GGEM solution ( D7 ).... an overall structural improving suggestion comparing the 00z run from last night.

can you imagine Narragansett Bay .... ho man

I don't think you did... I mean, there's a non-zero chance that thing gets sucked into ...whatever the Euro's selling with that -NAO trough. This becomes a general Met concern Which, by the way folks ... -NAOs, particularly those over the western limb of the domain, which this 10 day period is exerting, is a correlation found with TCs ( in general ..) affecting the EC. I'm not fully convinced that some sort of hybrid or fusion deal can't evolve. Low probability, but it's not outside the envelope, either It's numerically/telecon Sandy like in some ways... but not exactly modeled as an analog in the synoptic handling at this time. As far as the upper tier category stuff... my intuition's telling me pump the breaks on that with the hostility in the region, and the fact that a trough pulling it out of the CAG region may induce that motion prior to the TC availing of superior deep layer circulation mode. The GFS has a fuller integrated TC and that's why it's initiating that escape so fast. The Euro apparently keeps it less coupled to the mid and u/a, so it drifts west and then gets a chancy window to RI ... I put that lower probability. But, I don't give a ratz ass about being wrong, either. ha Just the way I see.

heh too much shear. Doesn't matter where it is. NHC indicated a 'few days' of it. maybe we wait -

Meh... we'll see. Shear stress has to diminish, tho. If it doesn't, I 100% disagree.

Apparently you're not putting much value in NHC's recommendations this morning? ...it's okay. With all the MAGAt parasites succeeding in tunneling out American institutions, there's probably just a skeleton crew of stressed out coffee constipated red-eyed summary efforts coming from NHC lately ... But, suppose for a minute there's substantive value when they tell us that moderate westerly shear will impact the TC for the next few days. That would be inconsistent with your bold comment above. Just sayn'

Don't call it 'hyperbolic' then, call it 'childish and drama jerking' ...meh, semantics -

October is 2nd only to April for mornings like this... 49 F slate gray dead calm and wet. Zero redeeming value ... And 2nd place means sometimes it's actually in first.

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-super-arctic-climate-weather-extremes.html

Here's what I was more than less describing to Scott awhile ago ...this is the 12z GEFs mean for D9ish. This is a rather deep upper M/A 500 mb anomaly for D9 and it's trending. It's getting hard to imagine this failing to detonate a coastal response This is only October 20s ... if we continue with the type of loading pattern toward mid Novie, the idea of the front heavy winter is showing up in guidance - in fact, you can argue that is the case already ... but we're just seasonally too warm inside a winter scaffold/hemisphere. That's a modest +PNA/-NAO(western limb) tandem

i know, and related to that, I find the inflation idea of our universe' supposed first eras of existence as eerily similar to the 'next is larger' ... like, hmm... just maybe the inflation they're theorizing is actually that size recreation taking place - wild idea perhaps