Typhoon Tip

Euro's just unbearable. Anything imaginable to stop heat getting in New England, at the end of this rendition used a closed low at 590 heights I'm not saying I want it hot per se but jesus with that

Approaching 600 dm non-hydrostats is nuts since the shit version of the GFS in 2017 was retired...

Looks like about a buck 50 on the NAM N of the Pike. Nothing ridic. Beneficial. ...I'm sure we'll focus on whatever 5.76" version instead... but probably this is a 'standard' soaking

Yo Don... something to maybe keep an eye on. The longer range ensembles from all, EPS/GEPS/GEFS are doing something interesting. First, a strong -PNA wave function sweeps the continent. An ~ 90W ridge balloons. However, just when the heat is poised to move in here, we either only get day or so, or perhaps a failure/ shunt entirely. The reason is the total scaffolding suddenly, rather abruptly ( suspicious, more below) en mass the fields roll back out W. Not clear why that is happening and it is suss, but that reposition to the Sonoran Desert/PHX region instead would make Europe seem a like a mild day to the Inuit. Talking 120+ to perhaps the big 1 3 0s Hell hath no fury should a Sonoran Heat Release ever actually happen. About that... not sure it will. The hemisphere has been persistent really since last summer. Year's worth or more ( frankly) and counting. Hell bent on making sure we continue what happened all last winter: SE Can/NE U.S. is the coolest relative to the whole planet despite every month at a Global empirical result being 1, 2 or 3 warmest since thermometers were invented. Right now, currently being in 3rd place for historic inferno at a Global scale for June; which is likely end in 2nd or even vying for 1st. This looking back along this behavior, it's about a .75 to .12 C gain to loss ratio/behavior, so granted, I'm only roughing a linear extrapolation; if so the abv slope figures for about 16.8 by the end these next 9 days but we'll see.... One thing I'm noticing about that retro/heat rollback west, however... It looks too sudden, at too large of a scale. The entire mass of the planet won't do this typically. It seems to be happening right as the entire scope of the hemisphere ( in all three ens systems) suddenly abandons the anomaly distribution. All wave functions, on-going, just abruptly dissolve/collapse into base-line above average everywhere ... Odd. that en mass unilateral holistic behavior all at once ... mmm that's suss to me. But we'll see.

Yeah, the ensembles from all three are doing that... Just when the heat is poised to move in, we either only get day or so or it may even shunt entirely because the total scaffolding rolls back out of no where. 129.34 F throughout the Sonoran Desert/PHX region instead ( if that does that, they're doomed. Europe will seem a like a mild day to the Inuit) Hell hath no fury should a release ever actually happen after that but as you say...it seems the hemisphere is hell bent on making sure we continue what happened all last winter: SE Can/NE U.S. is the coolest relative to the whole planet despite currently being in 3rd place for historic inferno at a Global scale for June, and likely to be end in 2nd/vying for 1st. You you ... I don't think I've seen a legit Sonoran Heat Release in years at this point because of this weirdness. Puzzling. One thing I'm noticing about that retro tho... it seems to be happening right as the entire scope of the hemisphere ( in all three ens systems) suddenly abandons the anomaly distribution. All wave functions, on-going, just abruptly dissolve/collapse into a base-line above average everywhere ... It's like an exaggerated PNAP is how that is expressing over N/A. But that en mass unilateral holistic behavior all at once ... mmm that's suss to me. But we'll see.

I've seen this so many times this spring into early summer, this tendency for front side cirrus/cloud debris to erode back west, as the total miasma is attempting to move in from the eastern Lakes/N OV. We steal front side decent days and I suspect some QPF error occurring because this drying may not be well handled - speculation on that idea. In any case, it's endemic of some sort of vestigial if not outright troughing in the Maritime of Canada. I say "vestigial" because it's not abundantly clear why that is doing that. So perhaps something lingers that's less coherent. The NAO is actually neutral when this has been happening - either way... not obviously negative in the charts, either. It's like there's some sort of hybrid or very week -NAO that is below the threshold of numerical detection in the EOF. Tempted to say "non-linearity" ... that's when there's emergent forcing where the why-for isn't very readily - if at all - coherent to the observer. Complex. Meanwhile, W and NW Europe is being punished and persecuted by a Hadean heat wave after heat wave. In classical telecon methodology/correlative spatial relationship ... western Europe is positive correlated to eastern N/A mid latitudes. This has been failing miserably. This isn't first spring and summer over the recent 10 years whence I observed this apparent statistical oddity. I dunno... maybe it's a related thing. Maybe something of a local decadal odd-ball fractal. But we're supposed to be hotter than we have been.

Signals getting stronger for a significant heat dome D8-11

Lot of crispy tcu going up. Can see your anvil bombs on the N-NW horizon. Fun day

It's interesting how that thing's changed over the week running up to it ... It was originally sort of weird quick coastal ( that looked dubious, admittedly), replete with a burst of NE flow and drilling rains ... Probably 60 F tops. Now, it's more like it's just a humid disjointed morass with less structure overall.

Euro's been more and more leaning away from a strata rain look toward something more convectively distributed later Monday afternoon. That tells me that's capitulating over time and model runs, slowly toward less of synoptic forcing scenario - though some would likely remain/still be present with that. The NAM's most recent run could be N-W bias overall ... a failing not uncommon to that model as I've said 327 times over the last 20 years, and it gets conveniently forgotten when it is the only model showing a snow strike in an otherwise suppressed consensus. Anyway, that 06z NAM solution tries to warm sector SNE which strands the region on dry ground because the impetus for raining at all has always been PWAT flop over the antecedent cool/dry air in place type of deal. If we warm wedge...that shuts off that mechanism. The "cool" front then limps through with limited fan fair because mechanics are too weak. wah waahhh. GFS still offers the overrunning general wet hope ... albeit light. One aspect consistent with all guidance is that there is a PWAT anomaly being either pressed up against, or succeeding in overrunning ... that offers a higher mesoscale error in QPF because the convection uncertainty/placement. Expecting some variability in results. Spectacular early summer weather Tuesday afternoon - Thurs. Bit of heat signal still looms ~29 - 3rd, and actually has become more significantly suggested in the numerical values of the telecon from all three sources. However, the spatial/synoptic manifestation of that is still ( if ever ...) middling impression. Euro wants to be west enough that we never taste it here.

Like the 06z NAM ?

man, that's a o.d. of Clonazepam suite of models and indices.

Yeah the GFS is suppressing things. Euro looks like a sneaky small stream responder problem event there.

Line came thru here about 10 min ago ...now light rain entrails. Had a few minutes of 35 mph gusts under a gnarly looking shelf base, then 10 minute of moderate to heavy rain. Not a single lightning flash. Not a single rumble of thunder. Not even in the distance.

Dangerous heat signal on this Euro run... GFS not as aggressive but hints. Granted these are around the 1st of July, so it may just be eye candy for heat enthusiasts