Typhoon Tip

Heh...going below average is low probability - that's both epistemic to climatology, but then physically substantiated by empirical/objective data results over recent decade(s). There is questions about the nocturnal temperature behaviors. Yes. They tend to own our departure weight - why so is a matter of ongoing science. Probably just water vapor logistics and the fact that our region is basically the asshole of the continent. Daytime recoveries are where we are being enabled from having to admit certain things. Haha ... countless times since 2000, all signals modeled argued for below results from synoptic air masses, but then what really happened was a poorly predicted cloud and/or precipitation timing that forced a cooler at that end of the diurnal cycles. The end result was more like 'colder relative to the recent mode' while not really being colder than 30-year norms. Then we do get a below normal pop here and there... but if we get it, there is an under the radar sort of behavior note on all of them that they don't last. In the 1980s... a massive arctic intrusion would happen, then it would take 7 to 10 days to recover to normal. Now, we get Feb 2021ers where it is -9 F at 1pm with 22 mph wind gust, and just two days later ... it's 40 and above normal. Then it is 40 for 5 days significantly offsetting if not erasing the deep incursion event entirely. Climatology as moving goal post is a facet that apparently most acknowledge but I sense not enough use or allow to modulate impressions of the future. So the crowd and consensuses tend more so than not, to sag below the result curve. I see that from just about every source... I read qualifiers like, ' aware of this and that regarding climate'. Then my internal monologue interrupts that reading voice with, 'but if that's true it would be unwise to think the proceeding' so it's not clear the +delta aspect of the climate system et al is sufficiently modulating - this is evidence spanning all of society - not just in here. No one's getting singled out...

Tomorrow's sounding is interesting meteorologically ... which means nothing to a snow-obsessed, dystopian d-drip seeking audience but it is what it is... This is the first time I've seen the 900 to 800 mb layer be that cool modeled so far this autumn, but the wind being W and paralleling the hydrostatic thickness contours, that means zip actual CAA. So, the west wind is sourcing from a mild region and albeit feebler sun work to offset about evenly. We just end up with -2 at 800 mb over a milder llv ... steepened the lapse rate.. Probably will cause gustier chop to the wind. 2 meter's possibly approaching 20 C though, and above normal.

It skewers into their ...phew, winter's here now take on reality

It's a silly semantic thing. Probably. altho, some may think it actually means something. If the charts look like a low or 41, yet it bottoms 31 at climo holes and the like, those results are disassociated local feedbacks that don't represent the qualitative state of the whole. ... interpreted as "it's not 'posed to be that cold" -almost imagine a tone there that something's unfair. ha Radiational cooling is modified by local feedback phenomenon. But the nature of what that does/is, it is disassociated from the larger expectation - the latter being some combination/weighted seasonality vs synoptics. A product that is evinced by the fact that here we are at 11am and it's 57 unilaterally even where it was 31 - an example. Objective reality: it is both 31 and cold, while being in a 41 suggested holistic synoptic state. Both are true. Nothing else. There is no "fake cold" Nothing novel about this ...it's just the shenanigans of public noise - shimmering with intelligence as it does

it's amazing how the universe finds a way to get to entropy. like ...keep using oil, the temp rises to the point where you don't need to use any oil. problem solved. lol

heh...that region in the NE US looks like the (superstorm 1993 + climate change)/2

I believe Apple's bringing a flip option back

You'll be 27

it's 72 here with warm sun and angel kiss breezes ... he's talking about graupel. ha

There's been a 'year without a summer' ..perhaps more than once. I wonder if there's a year without a winter. Probably there's already been one. Preferential bias just doesn't recognize it... 2012 was close.

Must've beeen distracted ... because the speed in which I've just realized we're moving through the solar transition season is something else. It just occurred to me we are closer to the solar minimum now, than the max, along that timeline journey.

I lived in Winchester in 2003 Feb and can tell you that number was legit for that snow total. The trek into work down 93 and then up the Storrow Drive complex of roads was something to behold in the immediate days following that event. There were large swaths where the plows just didn't or perhaps couldn't penetrate, and a yard of snow just set in place in those areas.

Trying ... If that Euro type solution gets rid of the contamination riding up the ridge heading through Oct 10 then we're going historic in that look the 11th -13th But, that's obvious 8-11 days away so just eye candy for warm enthusiasts for now

Right on schedule here along rt 2 ...this leg of it anyway. Color schemes are also species consistent without unusuals. This is the first 'climatological foliage' behaving year in some time...