Typhoon Tip
Meteorologist-
Posts
42,536 -
Joined
-
Last visited
About Typhoon Tip
Profile Information
-
Gender
Not Telling
Recent Profile Visitors
-
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
It's kind of hilarious to be defaulting to a thaw when looking at a +PNA crawling up into a -EPO look. It's times like these I wonder ... when/if the pattern actually flips warm, what the f will that entail. -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Typhoon Tip replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
So enabling for deniers... ... particularly, deniers all carry one particular almost necessary trait in order to be denying, and that's the inability ( perhaps a psychological limitation/aptitude - ) to simultaneously be aware of what they are looking at, with respect to keeping the big picture in mind. Their processing disconnects those two, and of course when limited by that state of awareness...that defaults their reason preferentially to just what is perceivable via their personal senses - in the construction/impression of reality. This is a long winded to way of describing the 'pin-head' nimrod with head up fucking asshole. In this case above, the cold over N/A is just perfect to jam head deep up myopic butt holes, and claim that is the reality. I think it is uneven evolution. I think there is a gene, a very necessary one ... for contemplation and objective reasoning that includes a broader dimension that what is merely available via the biologic sight and sound. If people don't have this, they are prone to denial - in anything. The rest is just immoral douchery... ( the preceding is tongue-in-cheek cynicism that somehow smacks as having some real value ) -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
clearly colder solution comparing the prior 4 cycles ... 66 to 72 hours is going over to snow in the pretty cinema ... almost down to the pike. there's been steadily more commitment to a secondary, albeit weak. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Heh... W. Europe actually positively correlates to eastern N/A in classic climatology. That may be changing based on everything over the last 20 years ..But the Alaska thing is true. The reason for these is just typical wave number spacing. When there is a trough in Alaska, there tends to be a ridge down stream. And vice versa... That all said, there's not really a silver bullet - I realize the idea of when in Rome is just to make conversation point. Still, we can't just signal some aspect and assume that's what's going on in a vacuum. Case in point, with a month's worth of oscillation between -WPO and -EPO...that implies sharing time/space in a ridge state over Alaska, yet they're snowy - so something else is playing around with it. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
The MJO isn't triggering? - just pointing this out in general... The MJO has a constructive vs destructive large scale interference requirement with respect to the super synoptics ongoing in the hemisphere. As an example of this, the N. Pac thing last month ... That was overwhelmingly a negative interference conflict at large planetary scales. The Pacific just suppressed the wave from propagating E. So to your point, if the wave happens to be in constructive interference then it certainly will add/help modulate the ongoing synoptic foot -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
This sort of hearkens back to the comments I made a month or so ago. There's a pretty clear leitmotif over recent decade(s) that basically boils down to this statement: The atmosphere can't seem to sustain cold without shearing disruption and/or negative interference. When ever it relaxes ... the bounce backs tend to be too warm. There's no attempt at subversion of CC into this idea ... it is what it is whether that's a part, or not. Anyway, even if that's just 40 ... 30% increased in circumstances, that's a pretty big chunk of standard frequency storm numbers lost to discord, which then means over the longer haul our probabilities are weighting down. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
ah.. sorry. I zone out usually after dark - unless there's something really going on -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Kind of with Scott on the mid monther ... for the time being, anyway. I'm open to changes at 7+ days of course, but ugly overnight. I didn't like 00z GEFs or the EPS regarding that period. They were not representative of a type of system we'd expect to see emerging - better hints in prior cycles have regressed to ...something else. This is all given to the blah blah PNA gobble-dee goop. Both look like some kind of polar boundary with maybe a clipper on it? not very clear what that is... but the passage is NW-SE and not including much of any coherency to a coastal. Basically unremarkable with what they do illustrate. Meanwhile, the operational GFS' 0z and slightly less so, 06z kind of does, but they just look weird. So does the GGEM... -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Hi launch pad this morning, relative to season -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Interesting changes and this 0ZNAM Unfortunately, it’s in that 72+ hour range …NAM is not very good but it’s definitely a colder solution -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Lol Jesus guys…let it marinate a little bit -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Looking more and more like the Miami rule's behaving for the 15th but it's the western ridge that's that's a problem. Too far W ... It's sort causing the trough components to dangle through the Lake/OV instead of digging. So we end up with the b-c axis with paltry wave running up along it instead of the bigger woofer. It may actually work out that way - which would probably drive winter storm enthusiasts to something barely restraining apoplexy ... haha. I mean with all do empathy ... you may never see 6" of wind whipping NEster again, huh That PNA ridge was biased west much of last winter. interesting anyway. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Trick in that solution will be whether there's a pulse of sufficiently low enough DPs loading into NYS-VT-NH ... even if we can get that down to say ALB-EEN-MHT that may be close enough. There's a front coming through around 00z Saturday and between 3- 9Z overnight there's CAA albeit not aggressive. I wouldn't normally comment on a marginal set up like that for ZR, just because it's a fragile set up and it's got 60 to 72 hours to go... however, there's a distinct rising PP across upstate NY-ME and it's nosing around the terrain and bowing the isobars into a dammed look...That means like today, a sneaky ageo flow is susceptible of getting going - if/when coming out of even a -1C DP source that's good for ice at least down to the border towns. edit I see NAM cute pink paint is indeed into interior even down here. CNE obviously higher odds -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
https://phys.org/news/2026-01-north-pacific-winter-storm-tracks.html "The findings add to a series of Chemke's previous studies pointing to a troubling pattern: Earth's storm tracks are changing rapidly, and climate models don't always account for that." No shit ... i missed my calling.

