Typhoon Tip

Latest GFS surges 564dm hydrostats to S NH 12z Sun.

probably not ... - that was just an example to describe how a fair/milder pattern can conceivably back in under extreme scenarios.

He's right in principle tho. If/when these NAOs become excessively strong, boundaries/cyclone activity may get suppressed so far S that regions of New England may observe improving conditions from the N-NE. You might recall the winter 2010 mega -NAO, and the big historic snows in DC-PHL region? It was warmer than normal in Maine and with sun in Caribou much of the time. That was a west limbed NAO on steroids ... Granted this may not be that, but in principle, our best hope for recuperating sanity is to A, improve from the N, or B ... have the -NAO be wrong in the first place. Possible because no one's considering that the NAO is the worst performing index per modeling of all realms known to nature... over 5 days away might be asking a lot

what? New England? warm sectoring in the spring, during a winter stealing base-line pattern lean no less? we'll have issues. If we don't, it's like a 1::100 return rate, relative to all. I suppose that's technically a non-zero chance, but I'd be leery of the least excuse imaginable to not succeed scenario -

hate to burst any bubbles of grandeur around here but it's still winter That may rub the spring/warm enthusiasm's the wrong way but tough shit. The natural Earth doesn't care about calendars or perceptions, or personal wants and needs and biases thereof... The pattern orientation and genera, along with 30s this and that, ... freezing at night. No, we are not escaped yet. I'd almost argue that if you could if you were to remove attribution, we would be snowing still - but since we cannot do that ... this is what a winter that won't end looks like, when it is happening in CC (there! that should piss off the most possible people's sensitivities by using a single post hahaha)

That model just relentlessly fights, the advance of spring

Just spiked to 60/57

I could almost see elevations from EEN to the lower Presidentials surging past me down here. I've seen these scenarios before when the cold is denser because it's saturated, and takes more energy to mix out... so we get a kind of "cold seclusion" - transient situation. But the models do have a bit of a llv jet - if we wanna call it that... and I've seen those also be remarkably efficient at scouring out at the last minute like 10 minutes before the CF, too. Plus, it'd be neat to see a leanin' ice storm by dawn, and crockus shootin' by dusk.

1921 was a bit of a unicorn - not sure it reached up that far in Maine. Back then there probably wasn't a whole helluva lot goin' on up there I'm guessin' so no exposure, but who knows. But interior SNE was demolished. It would be interesting to redux that sucker given modern demographic explosion while dependency on infrastructure and all that. And in fact, it extended almost to shore zones. Pretty much the entire region was dealt 2.5"+ accretion. Reports were as high as 4" of rhymed gray. Thing is, it was later reanalyzed to have had a coastal storm get involved of all things. Highly...highly unusual delivery method.

Is that late for Tolland standards? thing is, it's tough to know what that standard is, because Forsythias and some of these other low shrubs are more variable year to year based on whether they get goosed by early warmth

You'll be 60 by 6pm

up to 44 from 39 an hr ago... Sky seems lighter, tho still an impenetrable abyss - making progress. You can see the undercast on the hi res vis loop. It really does look like a white paint spill underneath higher filaments gliding over top. Like traffic passing over smudge on the highway. welcome to the bottom of the dumpster known as SNE April Griping aside, days are long-ish now with higher sun lingering at mid day enough that we'll probably start cleaving thru

assuming the warm front really gets N ...this doesn't look like maximizing the potential given the lofty DP relative to climo and ongoing miasma ceilings... misty warm sector spuge

I hate the way WPC has such a nice looking piece of shit inaccurate graphic for the surface synopsis... there's no way this warm front is n of the interior at this moment and this is their latest achievement in analysis

You will ... if you're hanging around 1800' in altitude, as the pulses of wind glide right over top this latex paint spill