Typhoon Tip

Hopefully this happens barely 3 days after the deepest season defining arctic nadir pattern...

this morning's band down there was supposed to be roughly SE NY to SE NH ... it's been in the models, even as near as yesterday. It seems to be situated a considerable error from where it was modeled to be, certainly for just 24 hours - little leery of this being an omen for all this business ending up SE. at this point i have issue fatigue with this event. almost suffice it is to say that i just give a shit what it does anymore. hahaha. no but i think even a 3 or 4" thing is still a relative win - obviously being that it is not a complete whiff, and it would pull those ai solutions back to reality. kind of a compromise we'll see

that was supposed to be roughly SE NY to SE NH ... it's been in the models, even as near as yesterday. It seems to be situated a considerable error from where it was modeled to be, certainly for just 24 hours - little leery of this being an omen for all this business ending up SE. i don't. at this point i have issue fatigue with this event. almost suffice it is to say that i just give a shit what it does anymore. hahaha. no but i think even a 3 or 4" thing is still a relative win - obviously being that it is not a complete whiff, and it would pull those ai solutions back to reality. kind of a compromise we'll see

yeah, Vortex95 mentioned that earlier… I asked if that had any norlun signature in the sounding to it … Not an exact match, but did kind of look that way. No answer, but I haven’t gone to look myself.

I’ve seen that before… That’s 2 to 3” Then, if you get five on top of that boom, you’ve got a warning 8 inches in 24 hours I think that’s the rule don’t quote me

It’s interesting that the NAM blossom’s little region of pre snows… The mechanics are very similar to what happened today actually… then the system comes up underneath and just melds right into that

NAM was west of 18z

That’s a good description for what we had today. The particles falling really really slow. Even the big ones floating. Yet I get out there and it was like the best snowball fight snow ever.

You’re not wrong about that…

“Relax man“? - you do succeed at one thing, dissuading me from even wanting to read that thing

Nah not seeing a reason for negative attitude on that beyond the 25th no way… First of all the ridge axis associated with that positive PNA is perfectly climatologically aligned in terms of longitude. Anything that gets ejected each of that feature will end up west of that trough as depicted in the EPS mean that Brooklyn’ provided. But it’s not just that spatial reasoning and a-priori aspect, the index is numerological ie pure mathematics. It’s like we’re mathematically sounding an alarm and we have at least a reasonable footprint in the spatial structure out there? But you know yeah ..,we have the last 10 years of Stockholm syndrome and so non-believability is too easy because of that. I can understand that If we change the indexes and that scaffolding starts to mutate, etc., no problem You know, frankly, I made the glib prediction back in early September that we would have an early loaded winter followed by a sputtering January and then a flowery February. Granted there’s a lot heuristics with that … Still I think it might be difficult to hold onto this favorable look that deep into February. Much beyond the first week you guys are on your own.

Meanwhile the numerical indices are even more aggressive with the month's end -week signal. Don't mean to come off a way about it but ... I'm not personally worried about a random Euro run or two, two weeks before said index window ... Based on those, this operational run is an outlier for it's last 7 days. If the indexes change that's another story but the current divorced operational Euro is really too excessive for belief. Either it corrects ... or the less likely, seldom seen wholesale mass backed indexes go toward a single operational paranoid run. haha

fit's the NAM's NW bias ... but actually, that bias is more 36-60 hours so not sure in this case. hm

what's the sounding like at that time ... kind of has a norlun look to it but there's some cyclostrophic banded structure too so not entirely.

Mmm no. That's a black box description. It doesn't describe the gears of the model. You can believe what you like. You are fundamentally wrong about the bold unless the exact "math" of the model machinery is describe, unambiguously. Stats and history don't describe the systems that produced them, btw - you're making my point.