Typhoon Tip

I've noted/hypothesized an aspect that's similar to that... Heat in the summers appears to be inducing a resonance feedback that is favoring ridging around the windward sides of continents. Some ridging is favored in these regions at all times, due to basal westerlies encountering boundary layer resistance as the flow encroaches land. It "piles" backward against ... en masse the flow rises over, then deflects N over time, due to upward motion then being worked over by Coriolis. This base tendency is the Perennial North American Pattern, which features a modest ridge over the west that settles out to a quasi trough/nadir as the westerlies are leaving the eastern continent. But the heat expands heights; then superimposed that over the PNAP, the two are in resonance (constructive) feedback). Similarly this is found around Europe to the Urals. The intense/intensifying seasonal heat flux due to CC is then adding to this synergistic resonance. It's quite intuitive and convincingly related to why heat/ridging retrogrades so rapidly whenever we see it episodically blossom over N/A ... Why also western and mid Europe are cooking with increasing frequency during warm seasons... This idea appears to be a deeper dive where the aggregation from these quadratures becomes the CGT bias field. Higher heat enhances drying, again ... more constructive feedback. So the CGT is created to atone for the observable biases.

I'm not sure I see/agree there's much evidence that this ENSO isn't going to heat up more.

That’s the first ‘hot’ run of the GFS I’ve seen in weeks

You realize you just doomed the entire winter by saying this ... right? unreal Okay everybody ... start a thread so we can keep track of every Angus event through next spring -

You forgot the "+9 to +10 will mean we go the other way big time" bargaining

12z operationals appeared to make a coherently warm move en masse on that run, too.

Worth it to mention... WV surplus/transport anomalies available in the general canvas. This would be due to both the increases that are CC attributed, whilst +ENSO and probable STJ input ... working on top of one another. Sounds like a QPF synergy monster if you ask me. Where it rains and/or snows it does with least excuse to do so and heavily. Relatively weaker profiled synoptic disturbances over-achieving.

yet here we are out to the 25th and we're bouncing around 17

heh... ENSO correlations for 300 years do too - but, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that until the gradient locks in and the jet(s) configures accordingly ...etc.

Is this the GFS AI ...or ?

I've noticed it in Augusts ... just sayn'

Climate Reanalyzer has us currently warmer than any other august, ever ... Not sure what-how to reconcile these two products - I'll leave that y'all... but it looks like it confirms that idea about Aug. Not sure about 'all months' tho - this below looks like the current month is running along 2nd in that scope. As an aside, also defiant of the fact that all years are typically descending by now. zoink Fwiw, this product includes 1940 - 2026/present

I see the RNA related pattern S of the 45th and warm up others are eluding. It sets in for a week or so coming up, but I'd caution that the negative NAO mode is lingering over the western limb of the domain ... a bit of a wild card. Now, the NAO is not typically well-handled at this range. We've seen a lot of winter extended outlooks fail because what looked persistent in the ensembles and their derivatives sort of sneaked into something else while everyone was counting their winter dividends. Suddenly in the near term we're looking at an entirely different pattern implication while our spirit is still lubed up for the other idea... It's a heartache index - live by it, forlorn for it. Summer NAO handling in guidance is not better, that's for sure. This is sort of an opposite thing. Usually folks want for a -NAO. The present thread tenor seems people are ignoring it (or just not aware) in lieu of a rah-rah for one last gasp summer heat ( as an aside.. heat's fleeting of course - ) before we commit to a climate wake-up-call winter. LOL maybe, we'll see on the latter. anyway, proceed with caution -

You should ... ... more often than not the ensuing season inherits the wind. Sometimes not so much, true. An autumn(spring) may flip the script and do so more profoundly, yup. But there is definitely often enough a leitmotif that is subtle but there if one looks; then it amplifies into better coherence as winter(summer) approaches. 'We started getting coastals in sep that year', lends to active Xmas. 'We started seeing se ridging in latter feb that year', lends to heat in May...etc