Typhoon Tip

I haven't heard ( haven't run out to NWS afds just yet, either ) mention of specific PWAT values in this air mass transporting up underneath the boundary... Given the source is from the deep S/proximity to the Gulf Of Wet Fart Mexico ( I refuse to honor the idiocy of the renaming ...)...it seems we could be shitting a ton more than people are really aware with this whole beast. But we'll see. It's possible to choke-snow fall rates from isentropic lift, tho. I'm also wondering if just gets so extreme that there's thunder, too.

It's a huge index signal centered around the 1st, + and/or - a couple of dates, which are derived from the ensembles. Somewhat ironic, the same ensemble mass -fields that are analyzed in deriving those same index values, do not actually carry a significant event through that period That is oddly troubling. Meanwhile, the operational versions have at least been off and on .. perhaps 50% of the time, plotting then not plotting significant events within that index-signaled window. That's what we are dealing with. Sometimes... the ensemble means will actually collapse toward the denser physically applied operational flagship versions. Rarer...but can happen in that direction. If that is going to be the case this time... proooobably start to see some at least tentative operational agreement on which dates to center on. So far...we've really seen 29/30th to 02/03 and all dates in between. Not really centering... This may also come together/coalesce in guidance better after we get this present major off the boards. I will also add... purely from a climatology of major events historical perspective it is seldom that major winter storms occur in short order. We've seen two moderate impact events pull that off in the past; aggregating to a major by weight of both kind of thing. But this thing on Sun/Mon ... then having an 06z GFS 5 days later is rarely observed.

I mentioned a while ago ( while I was in a meeting and should not have been doing so - ) that the RGEM was a better choice for me overnight. The NAM has a N-W bias over this region of eastern conus/western Atl - which I've been hammering for years ... I know. But with that in mind I was just suspicious that 06z solution was a bit latitude happy. The RGEM 00z-06z were essentially identical within a range of irrelevant noise as well... and also were respectful of 9 degree cold for f-sake. At a larger philosophical approach, this whole situation is like two elephant asses on a collision course - namely...the instance -EPO loading and resulting arctic outbreak, smashing head long into a Phase 6 MJO atmosphere ( the correlations of which are a heat wave in the OV...) trying to rebound. The momentum is established. Two huge weights moving at one another ..Usually, events that are rooted in huge corrections like that are going to happen. It's really not a question if... it's just becomes a needling detail as to what backyard gets what. The scale and amp of Monday's possible lagging coastal impacts is still, believe it or not, a bit of a wild card. I still sense that trying to see through the hugeness of the IB in the foreground ... to then handling the escape capture tendency of surface features is kind of stressing the guidance vision.

overnight RGEMs are better than overnight NAMs for this

Where is the high pressure orientation … if it is sliding off quicker or is weaker that may atone. But N of the LI Sound it is so cold that this system isn’t going to be able to transition before the end of the WAA phase aloft … either way. It’s a matter of concern for the Jersey crowd

This is like different renditions of a Rembrandt … but the essence of the art really isn’t changed

Yes! terrific way to put that. Non-linear wave functions, often expose their influence with that kind of transcendent appeal.

Well, keep in mind that the NBM is an aggregate model, an integration of a bunch of different sources. I guess it’s kind of tantamount to saying if it’s overdone then that means the majority of the models are overdone. It’s not a single source to be questioned in other words…

It’s interesting… there’s been a very bright index signal for many days, actually going back a couple of weeks. Very persistent with the whole wholesale index swap of the PNA. In fact, it’s on the order of four whole standard deviations from negative phase to positive in less than a week That’s almost impossible to do without a restoring system Yet we have some operational model runs that are putting out solutions here and there, admittedly, lacking continuity as they seem to evaporate a run later. But when they show up, they’re hyper bombs I mean down into the 960s and stuff at a latitude that seldom realizes pressures that deep My take on it is that there’s a huge huge non-linear signal there and we’re just waiting on the linearity of the daily wave transport in the models to actually come into phase with it. Anything that does just gets that gigantic kickback and that’s why we’re getting these inconsistencies between nothing and extreme. Regardless of what’s really going on there I don’t really agree that there’s no signal and that it shouldn’t be watched - not saying you are. It’s just my two cents.

there's probably going to be some OES enhancement into Essex/Suffolk/Norfolk Co.. possible even as far W as eastern Middlesex/ Worcester/ N RI. Not sure how we can avoid it with 15F air pouring out over the GOM and then turning that back W into eastern zones without embedding those mechanics. CF may coexist with this, too ... making things interesting for sub-meso scale totals. I wouldn't have a problem open the ceiling on this and running 20" totals at this point from what I'm looking at. I would hash out a region like I just said and just label it "max"

Fwiw,

Probably escalates right to warning from a WSW - just circumstantially, we have a track record of increasing confidence with every passing cycle that's bordering on creepy frankly... We're still 6 periods away and this could be a Warning already, really. Shit, we've had 12 hour Warning leads with less confidence then this... But out of deference to admitting this is still an imperfect science, we have to wait... So, we get 36 hours before hand and the NBM super cluster mean is 2.0+" liq equiv falling through a 13 F temperature from a 200 mb thick DGZ that's being moisture fisted by a raping cryo god ... we're making whiteouts in 3 hours sustained at some point or the another if that happens, no problem. Right now 1.5" liq equiv is spread out over 30 hours ... not going to cut it though. Wild card would be if the coastal goes bonkers and we end up with an isol. wind burst pulsing into 17:1 fresh aerated snow pack... hint hint, a snow pack taking flight in other words. That would do it too. In other words, not impossible to get a B out of this but a couple things need to happen.

Thought had crossed my mind, yeah ... heh I think though that this is daily model black out time. I mean everything off the 12z's been pretty well squared away for over 3 hours at this point, comments all made. For me, I'm actually still at work for another half hour and needed the time to like do stuff. haha

Intitially? Not for the same sort of physical causes ... which you intimated. Isentropic snow events tend to be more uniform in character. They are caused by general flow up an elevated frontal slope... Cold in the low levels, with an arriving warmer, potentially psuedo-adiabatic unstable air mass then forced up over the front; eventually through it's unstable altitude/pressure level it starts rising and precipitating... etc. That tends to be more linearly distribute action, such that you get a general rad display... Those meso bands you are thinking of, like that 2020 Dec hyper version, are elevated convergence axis formed from differential mid tropospheric jets moving past and air moving preferentially toward the region of best synoptic forcing to rise over where that is happening. Lots of pricey physical math later, then crossing that up with the aspects above, you can get huge results. In this sense... yeah ... if the latter low does get more mechanically coherent, then some meso banding could set up associated with that. There will be differential jet advection going on associated with that so it could. Just about all defined low pressures have meso structures... You can see them here on this 12z GFS regarding the later big dawg blizzard it has for the 31st

hm... man, relative to ambient surface pressure ( super synoptic foot at the time of this...) these sub 990mb members oblonging the spread back west on the GEFs are an impressive implication ... these are new as of this morning... 06z had more than 00z, but we're adding to I think there's gotta be an upper limit to how much a coastal can take over in terms of lasting/impact. The totality of the backgroung synopsis that all this is embedded in is still quite fast. We could be looking at a regional scoped isentropic thump followed by a 4-6 hour Nor'easter snows and wind into eastern sections.