Typhoon Tip

Yup has rain/snow line flash collapse SE look to it. … probably in the process of correcting it’s native NW bias

This system would have to snow at 4"/hr rates to load those numbers. I dunno. just sayn'

Ah not really.

I still am a little leery of this thing suffering some %age to model magnification correction in the short term. Flow’s compressed some. The embedded S/W’s, open and progressive. Those two predominating characteristics tend to foretell lesser production so we’ll see. We seem to have two concurrent hemispheric mode types, which is interesting. Blocking is competing with a velocity anomaly at lower latitudes May have a similar quandary the 6/7th then again out there toward the 10th.

In principle we may be seeing this

It’ll likely pass thru 2 or 3 cycles selling a NW bias between 24 and 60 hours

there appears to be assimilation bias in the gfs

Perhaps too early to drill into details but a flatter wave correction toward middling low depth will tend to parallel the flow with the isobaric layout … basically an ENE vs a NNE/NE with cf genesis … that’s going mean snow tot headaches for eastern zones.

The pattern recognition/suggestion/modulating favorably into the first week of Dec has been in the scaffolding of the outlook since at least two weeks ago. It’s not suddenly emerging thus challenging … that’s good. Perhaps even reassuring but I could see this robbing 20 someodd percent squeeze limiting things. Interesting testing modeling perf this time vs that leitmotif

This isn’t relaying off the eastern Pacific via a S route/split stream (along the 564) until ~ Sat morning … traversing the continent in 72 hrs in fast compression/progressive flow type. Those circumstances don’t lend to confidence even at this range. Still, at least the wave space actually existing in the field is higher confidence. Something’s there. But smaller giga corrections are like .5 deg on golf ball swing ending up on the left or right side of the fairway at a 200+ yd drive - it’s why fast flow bangs around model perf I’m also leery of model-biased amplitude —> correcting down post arrivals out of assimilation regions. Once this relays into the denser sounding array, as we’ve observed more frequently than not … there’s been this recurring theme of correction toward less by 20some % … suggesting an over evaluation was taking place and running that out into mid range results in fantasy.

This worked out reasonably well

Suppression, kind of is negative interference… But yeah, either way we look at it

In fact it would harm matters

The majority don’t appear to have this right, anyway. There is no SSW.... there never was yet. There may be one about Dec 7 or so... but antecedent to the -WPO/ -D(EPO) that was not the case. This is a ridging that is emerging from mid to upper troposphere and the tropopausal heights are elevated around the N arc of the ridge at upper levels; that does have an effect on the morphology of the PV. As I explained the other day, it may be splitting hairs? Either way, a -WPO/-EPO arc can arrive into that scenario however it does, when it gets into that mode, we load ... cold air in the winter. The cold you noted in Canada ( 2-meter temp anomalies... and 850...etc), that is a direct result of the activated loading pattern. This is just -WPO/-EPO, nothing else. Not sure why social media can't help itself but go from 0 to sci fi drama with such little excuse to do so - sometimes I suspect it's society dopamine plague since we've become tech zombies. How's that for sci fi. jesus As far as the colder pattern, this is all greater confidence than people are letting on - a lot of which I suspect is not having patience. Part of the problem of visualizing these changes at long leads ... ( over 15 days in some case...), about 5 days in waiting all the doubts start happening ... People expect to see things now. Meanwhile, models will come in and out of the signal ( operational versions). By the way, here's the 360hr 10 hPa GFS prog... this is a warm intrusion - we'll see if it's real.

Fell for the bait ... after 20 something years of this pastime, too