Typhoon Tip

Curious, what does Skynet think about the NAO during this time range above?

Oh god, I'm gonna catch some bun blow back for this... but in 1995, we started getting hints and starts of -NAOs in late August, that more and then less continued into the autumn ...only to finally dominate from early November on. We started getting a local SE/Can to NE gradient look as the flow was carving a trough around the -NAO bias that month... Mixy snow and sleet to 2" remained in patches dappled about the UML commons by Veterans Day, and never actually completely disappeared before it was covered over by a more substantial snow mid month... Didn't see bare ground again until the mega thaw in late mid Jan - lost a 30 inch pack down to field ponds floating confused ducks. Winter made a decent comeback in Feb, but it wasn't as good. That's not likely happening this year and isn't intended as an analog - setting the table for making a point here. digressing.. anyway, the point of this was going to be that sometimes seasonal biases have roots in the immediate preceding season. Like you start seeing the biases early, albeit too subtle to perhaps notice the preponderance setting in. Until it becomes factored, sort of unknowable... Similar subject matter, active winters with coastal frequency/events, tend to see a autumn couple of coastals ... - the table sets while no one's looking. I'm only bringing it up because there's a significant correlation between warm ENSO's and the negative NAO mode - east vs west, notwithstanding. This is particularly true/more so in Jan/Feb. But I dunno ... if this thing does do the super duper phat dope badass whatever, maybe the dominating statistic punches thru earlier?

There is a strongish -PNA bounce in the 25 thru 2nd window but it doesn't seem to wanna manifest in the daily/operational synoptics out there along the 40th parallel. There's a positive anomaly in the non-hydrostats but it's pressed down by over-activate summer version of the polar jet... like this, ...This latitude heavy jet antic has been weighting down the heat, suppressing it back SW-S now for 2 weeks and counting. Persistence seems to beget persistence. Otherwise, deep summer ended earlier than normal. Ooa Aug 10 this year for the eastern Lakes/NE region. We've seen 96 up here thru the 10 of Sep but sufficed it is to say we are on the climate slope and/so heat's rarefying. But the 'deep summer ended' isn't meant to trigger ... it's a relative aspect. We can still register above normal temperatures, and not be a part or have potential of being a part of the show. If that -NAO anchored 50/50 aspect continues there ( western limb -NAO in summer, ugh!), we're going to be cooler than the TV ...while being warmer than normal by small amounts - this latter aspect just because CC seems to baseline us to guaranteeing at least decimals on the warm side relative everything.

Left field shout in ... ... looked at some 30 NWS tweener sites on their interactive product and found just one site at 57, which is closely the climatological low for the date for the BDL-FIT-ASH arc mean, otherwise ...most were 60 to 63. Above average.

One thing that I found interesting about this summer is the lack of personal experience with actual thunderstorms. I've seen cool strata rains on 3 separate events, between 1.90 to 2.8" of total rainfall. The one thunderstorm that affected my area occurred earlier this month but I was unfortunately abroad and thus did not get to experience that. I was in Michigan that week ... a week in which it did not rain at all while I was there. I have seen lightning flickering distantly from a storm passing, only once, with distant rumbles. But that's like hearing a party you're not actually invited to. That's it. Otherwise, a so-far whole summer in a convective experience dearth. I realize this is a near hyper-localized reporting and quite likely doesn't reflect other's impressions - sometimes wholesale weather patterns seem to target one tiny region as though going after one guy's perspectives LOL

Yesterday afternoon was wonderful. Abrupt back edge clearing with drying/700 mb circulation got us to 74 with warm sun. It was a stark contrast to the morning, which was belated at 66 in murk mist ...then the downpours. But when it ended around 1 or 1:30 the day turned pleasant quite decisively, moving the grade from a complete failure to C ...C+ Saturday was dry enough in the morning for 18 holes, though overcast. Temp 69 to 71 was rather pleasant with no blazing fairways. We did get a light mist shower around 13 ... but it didn't last. I understand it was wetter south. So ... C+ for succeeding in ample outdoor time. For this region of N ma/Rt 2 it was not an inundating pour sensible weather weekend.

It’s more than that

It's interesting that recent 2ndary seasonal peaks in the tropical temperature means are now as high as the primaries were just 15 years ago... and this one appears poised to go ridic

Oh, that looks like a smoking gun for CC adaptation in that temperature outlook. Not sure ... is that a straight model to publication? - or is it modified by forecaster(s) opinion en route to the public Because it looks damn well like they took the canonical linear El Nino correlation and then just moved it warmer by a click or two. So instead of warm north cool south, you end up with very warm north and more neutral/average S. If. so... can't see I blame them. I mean, we play this head game in here as responsible weather and climate minded people, where we are not deniers about CC ... we just play some avoidance and hedge away from it meaning warmer snow challenging winters ...haha. At least a reticence to do so. Anywho they don't have that luxury. They necessarily need to be as close to accurate as they can be.

I'm getting this vibe from these outlooks that they're more interested in the N Atlantic/index correlation than the PNA to this point in time. Not sure why that lean as both it and the +PNA are at least linearly-neg correlated. The 2009/2010 season tucked a short lived but potent warm ENSO into the tail end of 2009 into the first quarter of '10. That was a winter whence the NAO became so excessive it jammed all events into the SE/MA, while up this way in NE ended up with suppression depression In a neutral ENSO year, a +PNA correlates more negatively with NAO during JAN/FEB anyway. But 2010 perhaps "over" ideally situated that result. There may have been other hemispheric things gong on that constructively interfered and drove a synergistic wild hyper response with that look that season/year. It was nuts! That one "snowmaggedon" storm looked as though it was really a hybrid between any cyclone at all, together with a mass-restoring forced nodal trough pinned there by the coupled -NAO state. fascinating. I believe at least a handful of official seasonal snow totals down there exceeded climo at sites around SNE and NNE - but not sure of that. Still, getting to within reach of N climates, in principle, evinces the point. It was like their 2015. But ...as 2015 demos... +ENSOs don't always do that. That's why I think the other was a bit of a "positive bust". It may be worth considering though that it can happen once, it can happen again. Leaning more E Can/NW Atl block with that weird neg tube of heights tunneling underneath down stream like Will was mentioning.. heh. It sort of reminds me of 'too much of a good thing' and you guys taxing the love lorn to get even more euphoric reach-arounds. For now, I guess it being so early in the game ...best to just go with +volatility for having lower heights in the TV whilst blocking resides N in the means - should that prevail. I'll tell ya though ... this will be an interesting autumn in the guidance.

I'm just speaking from a position of purer logic. If the climate is unstable, referring to it ... is riskier than if the climate is stable; specifically with regard to the climate aspect. That said, my op ed on the matter is that I simply don't believe we sustain negative anomalies in the mid latitude band like that, regardless. However, I don't have a problem with some sort of positive anomaly N though.

the s. hemisphere the tropics are lewd while the antarctic itself has a scary trend line originating over the last 1.5 months. It'll likely correct down some - we hope. The scalar value at the end of that rust curve is ~ 4th or 5th overall, to date. You don't wanna see early positive anomaly investments of that look before their annual recover is set to get going, in about a 3 weeks.

yeah... no one's been told before that the NAM has a N-W biases beyond 24 hours... heh

Need the return of hemispheric seasonal gradient increase - the triggered machinery response ( wave spacing and speeds and jet location biases ..et all) will be conducted by the new maestro so to speak. Prior to that, all we have is WWBs and vague SS stressing differentiating SST pattern/morphology, happening amid a generic summer hemisphere that remains unresponsive. The gradient and the response/forcing of planetary wave modes come hand in hand

I think they got that wrong... (this is a bit lengthy so if don't wanna read it all it's all good) The expansion of the Universe may only look entropic as the final consequence by the limitations of our human capacity for observation/understanding. It's entirely possible, admittedly a conjecture, that the expansion won't inevitably stretch so far that all actions, even the excitations of the quantum scale, are forced to smooth to nothing - when that happens, that's an inability to manifest reality itself above the "Quantum lens". No excitations, no-nothing exists. Imagine a tarp with wrinkles and as we pull outward in all directions along it's edges the expansion naturally would force all wrinkles to flatten. That's a metaphor for the cold entropic hell finish idea of accelerating expansion to oblivion. What could really be happening, oblivion by our limitations, is that the Universe is expanding because there is always new excitations being added into a 'concept of a Universal volume'. Of instrumental importance there, happening at a faster rate than the existing one's and actions decay. It's almost like the Universe is actually still "big banging" - like it's been occurring for the past 13.5 billion years. There's a funny pun somewhere in there related to how new life necessarily needs this... An implication arises that is interesting. The Universe might necessarily be expanding to make room for the addition. Add air to a balloon, it expands. However, since if and when we don't see the new excitation emergence (which we don't) then entropy in the localized scale creates an illusion of supremacy there - of course we are inclined to assume what we can observe as to being the nature of the whole. However, in this re-imagined aspect of whole-nature, decaying to pure disorder still occurs slower then the emergence of new excitation, by the time the integral reaches the edge/boundary of the whole volume of the whole Universe ...entropy was actually increasing at a slower rate then the advent of new excitation - in the ongoing big bang. What is a creepy implication falling from this philosophy is that all entropy is, is a measure of finality of actions at smaller scales. So yeah... we (meaning all actions at less than the expansion of the cosmos) die, perhaps necessarily so, so that the Universe can make room for new excitation emergence, so that it can go on existing forever. This is an analogy for life as we know it, too, but first ... you might recall our discussion from months and months ago about the emergence of reality from an analog engine. Basically, there are 3 original colors of reality - then mixed essentially forever to form an infinite spectrum of colors amid the 'reality color wheel'. No one thinks brown looks like blue - but the heredity from red, yellow and blue combinations eventually arrives to either. And if we look around us, we just might see or sense once in a while this kind of "infinity" is almost like a scam in originality; but it gets caught in the act. I like this analogy of the tree and the river to help visualize (I believe we may have even touched on this in that prior conversation - ). If we look at a very high resolution of a river's complete water shed, then, look at a defoliated tree against the canvas of a grey winter sky, the river's water shed looks like a virtual reprint of the same visible specter of the tree's structure against the sky, and vice versa. Everything about nature and reality is a repro and/or repurposing like that. Reused structure hidden by end result-unlike contexts - perhaps existing so that context identities may be created - the emergence of reality. So the life analogy... we exist with our awareness and consciousness because of trillions of cells that live and die in a fraction of the time we totally exist. This is a tree-river inheritance, a new color as it were ... that is inherited and repurposed by a Universe that doesn't really create anything in reality, uniquely. It's all repro's only differentiable by context. We, and in fact, everything exists, because the Universe has excitations vs decay occurring, so the model of our systems are deeper than mere analog - it's just inherited. The new excitations are new cells... so long as cell existence out lasts the rate of decay, we continue to exist. The balloon's expansion occurs because the same calculus (whatever that is..) that drives the emergence of excitation --> expanding cosmos, is parental to the reality of both. Back to the original discussion point. To summarize, it is possible that entropy is just more clearly evident at smaller scales; human limitation to what is coherently perceivable then guides the faux impression of supremacy. But it may not be in control of destiny. Whatever is introducing this - re-imagined conjecture - emergence of new excitations, driving the expansion of the cosmos, is allowing it to persist. Everything are the children inside.