Typhoon Tip

Graupel shower with gusty winds through Ayer an hour or so ago. Bouncing rattling particles with more frozen then liquid at one point. Some of the bigger pieces seemed to carry a bit in the wind, so it gave the affect as though it really wanted to flip. Could see the curtains in the sky moving quickly by. The sun was milked by anvil cirrus as it moved off ... low top convection-like. But the freezing level/mix temp types were not far over head. First frozen of the season in the books!

that might be why, yeah.. add that to the plausible reasons for model amplitude biases out in time. Over-assimilation in data sparse regions.

what do we mean by llj in this case? i may not be understanding where that was seen. i never bought into the llj idea, as i think of that as a compression jet out ahead a baroclinic axis where 900 mb fire hose is going on. if so, that is not typically found in flat progressive wave types, skirting along a straight w-e or wnw-ese deep layer motion. that may be more of cyclone climatology argument but clippers/quasi-clippers don't typically do that. if this had, this would have been unusual. unusual things do take place from time to time so in that sense ... couldn't ignore it entirely, no. however, seeing it not happen? heh but synoptically, any wind as i saw it in the modeling from 2 days ago ... was more likely going to come from a jolt isallobaric acceleration as the low was leaving, then seamlessly that pulsed acceleration becomes a few hours of caa instability related momentum gusts. (isallobaric acceleration is due to excessive deepening rates exceeding Coriolis and the wind goes across the isobars instead of flowing quasi-parallel - the response can be so overwhelming that it's like a p-wave off a bomb blast with low lvl wind fields, even calm scenarios, abruptly finding itself in damaging whiplash gusting in some extreme cases) two days ago this had some semblances of that effect. not hugely obvious, but when combining that with modeled lapses rates at the time, and also, a low modeled down to sub 980 mb ...the rest became choosing the model that was the most dystopian d-drip extreme lol . seriously though it should be noted, the nam never really had big wind beginning ~ two day ago. the other aspect is the model magnification syndrome. ha. just mean that tendency to de-amplify just about everything the models actually model, when they bring events inside of 72 hours. we've discussed this ad naseam. this overall system devolution in modes, and it really bit some forecasting ass this time. that dependable error correction ( greater amplitude to less amplitudes at irregular percentage headaches) is puzzling. i've wondered if perhaps there a physical flaw in the model construction, one possibly being exposed by cc. i've wondered if there is a natural, unavoidable tendency for systems to 'glow' prominently out in time, then succumbing to countless corrosive factors - those that cannot be seen - yet to emerge along the way; they gnaw at the system in question. i've even wondered if the engineers were mandated to do this on purpose- because it could actually serve a purpose in ferreting out the more important events that might otherwise be buried in chaos out in time. we can sci-fi this for ever. probably something like that middle reason... either way, something like 10 to 40% of any 'storm' is pretty much eaten away in some kind of entropic tax as the late mid range comes into near terms. this system clearly fell victim to that.

Unlikely to have legs if were even real, not with the entire compendium of polar indexes collapsing ... But that's likely 'post bating' anyway -

I think it's more apt to say it was a decent fail by the models that were promoting it. The NAM had this less than 40mph winds 2 days ago for example.

NAM still not interested in much over 40

kind of reminds me of latter November 1992 the way the pattern's behaving in the models. There was a small bomb that fired off in the GOM a week or 10 days prior to the Dec 9 classic, and it clipped the coast with some high winds. It's not an analog per se, not without looking at any guiding metrics ... But, this bombogensis occurring along a BUF-PWM line, tomorrow night just reminds me of that. which by the way, 1004 MB in S Ontario, down to 985 E of PWM just 15 hours later is a bomb. I'm also seeing a potential that some of this wind has an isallobaric aspect to it. The storm is deepening and approaching ( fast ) at the same rate, such that the wind ahead isn't as noticable because those two are quasi balanced. But, soon low gets passed, there you are, in a deep pressure well to climb out of. That recovery will do so faster than the sub-geostrophic balance and the winds will become particularly nasty. This would manifest as a sudden surge of very large gusts across the area... I've seen near calm conditions, leaning large tree jet engine blasts in as little as minutes... Then, the situation melds into a CAA burst, which can have topper gusts for general lapsing A lot of the wind events that are predicted around here fail, because PGF component doesn't exceed the balancing enough. That thing tomorrow night looks really unbalanced.

what I thought was interesting about last night was the smell of higher DP air that raced in just ahead of that activity. It was dark, but the scud above were vaguely lit by the cityscape beneath enough to discern they were tilting NW to SE as they skirted along a WSW trajectory - a physical observation consistent with positive helicity. The temps were mild for the time of the year, completing the setting. I remember thinking in the moment how unusual those tandem observations were for November ... Didn't think much of it again until pea-sized hail and rain sheets pushed around by a big woosh of wind swept through a couple of hours later.

could be a red flag. yep. that and the amplitude. euro’s not free of blame in doing this in that range. AIF/ICON/UKMET trended tho. just sayn’ Again there’s index support fwiw

Heh, life expectancy can have multiple definitions - depending on context..etc. First of all, it's not just about CC killing people. That's childish really. I just hear this doubter's tactic all the time, too. Not sure if it is because they can't see the bigger picture, or they have some other aspect about their minds that limits their perceptions into very narrow inclusions. I'm not saying it's you, but too often retorts are myopically linear like that. Reductive, when not conflating. Reductive really is the best word for it, where they either do not understanding or are predisposed to ignore the fuller extent of nuanced complexity that really constructs the topic at hand. Or, are just being immorally devices in only giving data that supports their side. Why not give it a try? The upshot is that it's trying to save lives. I mean like what's the doubter point- there is none. Don't do anything because one thinks their is no risk, is a Darwinian Award looking for a ceremonial. The total assessment of life expectancy comes from any array of additions and subtractions of factors, both of which are also changing in time. Ex, a human at birth in 2025 has a much longer life expectancy than 1725 because of improv(e)(ing) medical standards relative to era. Other discoveries since and including the advantages of, the Industrial Revolution, is why the population of the world soared billions since 1750. This is all vastly more pervasively effecting the extension of life than millions dying from CC. (CC killing millions + population either opting out, or losing birth capacity) / 2 = some hindrance to life expectancy that has, so far, much less weight than the advantages of the last 200 years - the trailing generations of which are yet also advantaged ever more. But this is all a situation that is changing. The bottom line is... people will doubt whatever it is they don't want/can't or agenda to admit, until it causes them pain. There is no such thing in their mind as a CC. There is no such thing as a polluted penis problem. They’ll defiantly remain hard headed until they suffer, then? they are usually evangelical going the other way. I don’t usually engage in this level of the discussion because I find this limitation blocking sight of subject at hand to be all but an impossible barrier. so … just have to wait it out. Eventually denial will be replaced by shame

It may be worth it to thread for that if it persists. There is some index support -

12z Euro's hinting at a NJ modeler in a week. In fact, if it were not for some lead wave interference it'd likely take off. As is, it's the first regional lower elevation inclusive chance to snow. I was mentioning that 10-13th period over in the winter outlook thread just this morning.

In one school of philosophy ... this is actually a good thing - "Climate change inaction costs millions of lives each year, report warns" ( https://phys.org/news/2025-11-climate-inaction-millions-year.html ) It's always been about population. Too many human beings. It's callous perhaps to put it in such terms, but reality and math and logic ...? they are dispassionately true like that. When there are 8 and some odd billion in population pumping out Industrial volatile chemistry as exhaust... it overwhelms the Earth's physical processes. If our species is going to survive by producing all that exhaust, there needs to be far fewer of us. It's interesting that we are being forced to make a choice between inaction and death, vs action when part of that action requiring less births/controlling population. Either way, less people The population correction is already begun, folks - it's just not striking everyone's streets at the same time. Some of which is happening unwittingly, by the way. It is now either too socially disadvantageous for younger child rearing, or there's gamete potency problems manifesting in general male population - the latter is cited/scienced. Birthing rates are empirically dropping at an alarming rate around the world. Whether it is socioeconomic, environmental, or some aspect of both ( probably both..) it seems the ultimatum cannot be escaped. And while that spectrum of causes isn't related to climate change, exactly, again ... too much population.

I've seen a lot more of these 12 to 15F differential mornings when comparing dawn temperatures between ORH and here in the Nashoba Valley than I normally do. It seems we are getting an anomalously large number of superb radiational cooling nights. That one factor appears to be over-achieving relative to "rational cooling night" climo - if there were ever a metric. It's just I've seen a lot more of these 12 to 15F differential morning comparing dawn temperatures between ORH and here in the Nashoba Valley than I normal due. Autumn is the time of year for that to happen, true. But lost count

I wrote about that back on September 9, either in this thread or somewhere. If this winter was going to perform - imho - it would more likely be an early blocking tendency and an early loaded affair. I may have even mused if memory servers, that it may not return post the canonical January thaw. February Lilacs. Low confidence at the time, mainly in deference to the fact that it was 2.5 months away... gee ya think. Anyway, so I don't have a problem with Webb's ideas there. In fact, the recent -NAO and low amplitude +PNA observed 7 to 10 days ago could really be argued as heralding that. ... and now we're doing it again ...with a new -delta( AO/NAO) emerging. As an aside, the problem with the recent temperatures ... there's some relativity going on doing a marvelous job at hiding the obviousness of a colder pattern. We're registering daily averages that range from +decimals to +2s in a pattern that would be -3s, 30 years ago. Compounding further, generational acclimation, colloquially referred to as 'boiling a frog' is putting us in a physical situation where we are now biased to feel a mere +1 is cold autumn, when in fact it is positive. I see these two distinct relativity's sort of moving past one another without much realization that either is happening in ambit discussion ... interesting. Back here on Earth, as snow enthusiasts, ... we may want to watch the 10-13 period of time. Mentioned above, there's a new -D(AO/NAO) emerging in the ensembles, both in the spatial synoptics, but also numerically. The NAO component so far favoring the western limb of the domain, too. The correction vector is pointed S over mid latitude/E N/A. In simple terms, that means non-cutting lows and/or tending to correct S in the guidance over time. Meanwhile, there is sufficient cold/lower thickness spread out across S-SE Canada, due in part to antecedent SPV whirling over the E Canadian shield over the next week. So we'll see where that goes.