Typhoon Tip

12z CMC trended better for summer enthusiasts ... it's something.

39 to 60... Funny, it was 38 here this am when I crept down the stair. 'The house is chillier down here', apparently having finally forgotten the warmth the other day. Typically it takes 30 or so hours for the 'thermal edifice memory' to fade. I debated flipping the compressor to heat mode. It was just 59. I don't think it's improved much. Something about May-22nd pisses me off enough to stubbornly prevent myself. SO... ah, 61 ..I may as well just open the windows now and let the warm air in. Winning

Subjective reply here but ...I'd even go worse than 'mehhh' I'd say there's a decent chance that's a piece of shit, down right frustration that pushes one's patients closer to pulling the trigger on a relo These protracted continental folding patterns that cause the Maritime to try and fist it's way back SW all the way to Florida thing that's been (apparently) a paradoxical /counter-intuitive consequence of CC ...are getting unbearable. As an aside, I had a feeling we would have a problem with this, this particular latter spring this year...because of the way the persistent upstream seasonal pattern behavior was. Since last October, really... I showed the evidence of this every month during the cold season, Nov-Apr... despite those 3 or 4 months having averaged ( Globally ) in contention for 3rd warmest since Humanity became a geological force in Earth's history ( eh hm), the NE CONUS/SE Canada were persistently showing relative offset cooler than everywhere else. This was true whether we were technically above average those months, or not. It's like always coming in last? I still see vestigial markers for that still going on, tho harder to see it. It's some kind of fractal in the hemisphere that hasn't broken completely down... and having these back ward carving Maritime troughs like the current Euro and GFS are doing is some kind of "non-Markovian" bias playing out.

Could. Depends on what guidance one chooses. The Euro's the best; the GFS is worst. I just compared their respective ceiling RH levels. The Euro's ~ 6 hrs faster in the wholesale deep layer. Has a sharp back edge clearing in the 300 and 500 mb levels by 12z...with <= 50% in the 700mb by 18z going clear by 21 z. As is such...it's 2-m Ts are 68 to 72, but the 900 mb T argue that it's really warmer than that in the "real" 2-m ... The GFS, being slower with back edge not only retards any recovery but actually is still raining through 15z. It does finally clear in time to salvage the afternoon but the damage is done, and since this model is deliberately coded to seek out and destroy warm solutions ... it's thus succeeded damping heating potential just enough to get to it's goal of ruining the day. heh Seriously tho the 12z this morning will be intereseting to see if one collapses toward the other. After all, 72 hours away.

no ... they "make it sound" as though everyone in here must be needling neurotics

38 to 54 so far. Could actually be an impressive diurnal recovery day. 35+ sun dependent. We're flirting with the main b-c axis smudge running by to the south but if we can keep the rad counts > 70% say ...

It's also possible that pattern's being over amplified in the operational tenor - just speaking to as is... Set coffee down, let's see what the overnight's selling - oooh, dog shit. It's okay. 'Can always come on into this social-media's particular brand of bi-polarism to offset the implications of a Maritime retrograding vomit look.

There may be some subjectivity to it... If that's what people want, that's what they want ...blegh There's a coherent synoptic indication for a deep, possibly -2 SD back-door calving pattern there. It arrives with a front Wednesday...then gets re-enforced toward the weekend. There's even implications for elevation grapple in the latter frames. Not sure why this black and white, clear depiction isn't registering with ya'll but so be it. Personally, ... Monday and Tuesday look decent. I'll give you that. Beyond? gets douchy. The other thing, even if Mon/Tues are warm and more appealing, it's hard to psycho-babble enjoy that when you know the Labrador's dildo is getting all rosined up and ready for penetration right after.

Looks like shit after Wednesday

There was a time last week whence the charts looked like we would not be dealing with these nocturnal pieces of shit once the recent hot weather left.

It's not summer yet ... yesterday's charts, but the lingering affects bleed on -

heh...12z CMC transports 570 dm thickness to Pike on Mem Day, with a low going up the St L. That's a low lcl tvs look there.

Saturday'll be a lot like today is ... It's really only Sunday. Monday's unclear. Some guidance suppress the next roll up

Nah ... I was being an idiot. I don't know why I did not connect your post to what I just said - it was like a had a trans ischemic moment or something.

Oh I get it... sorry Ray. ha