Typhoon Tip

Right smack in the middle of Ineedarealitycheck's expectation for winter's return... 'nough said. heh... yeah it's D11 so ... zip confidence. Altho, it's fair enough to say that there is an emerging warm signal beyond the 20th in the indices. My personal feel on things is that winter is over. We may get a 'spring snow' at some point, but I don't see that happening for the next 10 days, and beyond that... I get increasingly more soured by the implications of CC more and more every passing year. When combining that with post equinoxian solar irradiance ... doesn't send my sixth sense into any cold feel

OH pleezy weezy with sugar on top make this happen

it seemed to stop as the back edge of the mids finished exit... via cinema. As the loop had pass over, it ate back NE a little It's really open sky sun here with light winds. On March 11, it's cheating and making the 46 ... actually, just bounced to 48 seem like a pretty good bargain for the time of year

Yeah, it's 46 here with nearly full sun this hour even up here in the deeper cool air; water is again running out of the pack's lining the roads so melt continues.

I'll tell ya ...having the sun now winning over the diminishing cloud coverage is helping to offset that rude intrusion of colder air. Ironically, it cloudier where the cold is deeper up N, and shittier sky where it's SW of this boundary. Weird to have it clear where the boundary itself, is It's 45 here... not "nice" per se, but relative to what it could be on March 10 that is nice. Not ungrateful. Plus, the wind behind this boundary isn't appreciably gusting and so forth, so there's some nape quality remaining. It does seem that the momentum of the front is slowed.

I remember that as the cold that was gripping the continent E of 110 W wrapped up into that whole trough and exited along with it. Cold was over and the storms were done. If that's what it takes, ...let's do it !

There is nothing false in intimating that the risk for wintry event, next week, "shit the bed" in the models. That's essentially true. It may be fair to say that an event could return in modeling? However, there are other indicators suggesting that those odds are pretty long. It's just that there are those that don't like the circumstance at hand, much less when someone iron pans the reality. They read it, ... they react. Usually by picking apart specific word choice to tailor a some way to make it wrong. Heh. okay

I saw that.. .interesting high based towers

Not in this conversation but ... I sense that depending on March as a wintry month has gradually lessening support in reality -

actually initializing elevated convection over the top of this newly arrived dome too - y'all may even get wet in mid NH

It's semantics, sure ... but I just thought it was interesting. I cracked that open this morning, thinking I'd see a BD yet that's a synoptic normal front. whatever, the flow is NE and rudely steeling yesterday's joy; no one outside this social media is either aware nor gives a shit about the differences. agreed -

Technically not a back door front. Not according to WPC's last analysis. It 'sa front coming down steeply from the N but it's not back dooring this is more synoptically driven than a meso-beta scaled BD effect. Also, with that high building ESE toward the Maritime the way it is modeled to do so means that there is no way to 'retreat' or really even mix out that mass prior to main frontal sweep early tomorrow. Case closed. enjoy you're dog shit New England curse.

Yeah, like tomorrow lol It may be delayed and/or mitigated a little in WOR or SW CT but my experience (and climo of model error for that matter) if there is a BD within reach, it typically really end up in Atlanta GA's asshole