Typhoon Tip

so, tomorrow we'll be above normal... Not thinking the low dunnite's too cold? The 'core" of the coldest air is passing thru right now. Wind looks to stay up ...defaulting to dry WAA. Has a "steady or slowly rising" vibe there I guess. Then tomorrow, good WSW mixing under surged 850 to 900 mb layer (-3 to +5) probably sends non-south coast tainted HFD-BED areas close to the adiabat. Looks like mostly sunny. 74-ish. Same is true for Tuesday, only add 7 or 8 ... just spit ballin' here based on a cursory eval of charts. But case in point to what I was just saying to John. We're heading into a couple of days that will try and hide the abuse over the last week's piece of overall shitness

Of all subjective takes on our predicament, this is probably the most fairly aligned with the objective truth - heh...the way I see it. Scott and I have had some back and forth about this, but the these months, really since last October - won't get too deeply into that but we've been stuck in some sort of resonate Rossby wave that's reenforcing the coldest possibility relative to ongoing noise, one that frankly still has not changed - have had small percentage day anomalies extremely warm enough to make months more normal in the pure numbers than the actual sensible weather. Basically... imagine the example of 7 days -3, then three days of +8 ... the average is positive for the 10 days. We used to have a saying back in the weather lab days that statistics are the biggest "out-liars" We're being gaslighted by the math for 9 straight fuckum months.

Relative to date, according to Climate Reanalyzer source the running sea ice is presently at a historic low

Ha! Just posted where/whence the is in the cards

Improving odds for a hemispheric switch to a warm signal for mid month. Which isn't saying a lot at still 13 days away, but improving nonetheless. Emerging collapse in the PNA coming from all extended guidance for that index. Meanwhile, the the AO is pulled back (finally). And, if it helps...the climate composite on the MJO wave space in 8 for May is actually a modest over the top warming signal.. Indeed, the MJO is forecast to re-emerge on the left side of the RMM with perhaps nearly the same momentum as this most recent propagation. It's not hurting a warmer cause So we'll see... if you're a warm enthusiasts, it's a light at a the end of a tunnel for deeper more foundational looking warm pattern. In the meantime, Tuesday may approach 80...HA! So, it's not like we can't get by in the meantime. I just wish we'd time one of these warm bursts on the weekend. Weird look in total, really. Stationary front from IND-BTV like that is odd at this time of year. So we get late winter on the W side and early summer on the E for a couple of days... massive gradient The other aspect to consider is that the index correlation to pattern orientation is different in May than January. So have to consider two aspects, seasonal wave space changes. Also that there's a season -D(x) component where that is in the process of changing weaker. That's the seasonality signal. Putting all this together ... mm I'd say between modest and moderate signal for a warmer pattern change, mid month.

mm... I've made no restraint in my expressing how I feel about spring around in New England. It's subjective, ...admittedly. But I find it loathsome. I don't really spin it as 'not so bad' at times just because it's like today. I think it is bad, with days scattered over time that are not as bad. But because we know what's in store, it's tainted. I don't like a sunny, 74 day in April, when knowing it is going to snow in two days. That's a weird personal thing ( probably...) but that day is like an abusive spouse that loves you to death when their not choking you in a narcissistic rage. No but it's just me. I have a very short tolerance for days like yesterday and the annoyance isn't compensated enough I guess. So over the long run, I'd rather not live here between ~ March 24 and Mother's Day if I had any choice.

Which by the way... we enter the solar maximum on May 5.... four days. Which means today isn't a whole helluva lot different, just sayin. It's equivalent to August 10 or 11

Similar... 56 but that pancake CU bloom patched it's way off to the SE and has left us 90+% open sky with some of the most uncontaminated blue the Earth can muster in this pre-holocaust industrial history lol Very light wind, and with the sun now officially insanely hot standing there it's giving that allusion to it being warmer.

Looks like it's thinning out some

haha, I know where you live just be studying the tendency that seems to be fixed. Seriously, it's probably terrain determined to some degree

This looks like a terrific opportunity for Brian to end up under one of those stationary diurnal cloud streets while it's sunny a mi E and W of his immediate neighborhood ?

It might zygote as cat paws or even some mangled bow-tie pastas if the cold infant CCB head gets this far NW Sunday morning, too. Kind of an interesting day. 12z could have some cold rain mixing in if the CCB head gets as far W as Worcester to SE NH, then is sharply clears by 10 or 11am as the back edge rolls out with that fast moving developing coastal. It's not a big system. Compact actually... those tend to have a sharper back edge on rad and sat. So you're sitting there in misery, and then least expecting a brilliant sun bursts forth through the S windows. That backside environment appears to only be weakly CAA mixing as there's not a steep vertical delta-T...while also being down slope. That might allow the temperature to get near 50. I was looking at the 700 and 500 mb level RH and the %ages are < 50. Some DVM may offset the pancake destruction. Point being, going from Labradorian nut sack to at least a C+ afternoon is an interesting sensible flip.

Today's a sneaky mild naper. In fact, with May sun potency now lasing the land and man, might even subjectively argue it gets warm out there mid afternoon for an hour or two. (altho hold on. One caveat: not sure if we pancake destruct this, which would cap temp rise....) Sunday morning? there may be wet snow falling around the top and tuck towns of the Worcester Hills. That sure is fuck won't be normal - it would objectively be well below normal actually... However, (today's sneak warm) + ( Sunday morning cold butt pump)/2 = typical bullshit godless NE spring climate by average so yeah...I guess that argues near normal in the aggregate It's a matter of magnitude. Does the cold anomaly on Sunday out weigh today's warmth? It might be a fun 4 min comparison on Tuesday morning for nerds that like to crunch those numbers. Tuesday and Wednesday are going to be close to bigger warmth. It's going to depend on whether the warm boundary that is more and less defined among the models, ...actually gets through here. Climo says it doesn't and gets shunted some how, some way. Even when there is no physics to shunt, Earth seemingly comes up with physics ( like interdimensional weather) in order to get what it wants: pumping NE spring enthusiast bum. Seriously though, if we can get S of the perceived boundary, we surge from Sunday local era nadir to AN for those two days. That'll prooobably seal the first 7-day's worth of the month as +

10th-14th is a transition period suggested by the numerical trajectories ...albeit recently emergent. However, it was at least vaguely hinted starting 5 or so days back. As of a last night's computation from all three major source, GEFs, EPS, GEPs, there's movement toward a neutral EPO, -PNA state. That's basically shutting down BN. Adding to that presumption, the AO and NAO are flat-lined, perhaps seasonally too. That tells me that the op. Euro's extended warm surge into the latitudes of the lower Lakes ( huge swarm outbreak in the Euro 300 hours btw -), with 80s to southern Ontario may not be dependable per se, but at least the principle of a bigger flip is well founded. We'll see where it goes. Personally lean to this having legs tho. That's the broad orbital perspective. At a bit more of a discrete level, ...Tuesday and Wednesday next week are precariously close to going excessively above normal. A typical result in this latter leg of CC; when the environment "allows" a warm departure, the result is disproportionately warmer than normal compared to when the environment is pushing cool departures. Scott and I have an ongoing interesting observation about this... if you look at just about any month's climate records since last autumn when this cold hemispheric look became dominate, despite that being the case those months will host something like 3 or 4 days stretches with +15 to +20, separated by 10 or so days of -3. So that month ends up either near normal or even decimals above normal, while having successfully cheated everyone that enjoys warmth from being able to subjectively feel like that was ever the case. HAHA. It's been a total liar journey for months now. We used to have a saying back in the day, "Statistics lie". The irony being that they don't... but they do at times belie the daily experience. You'll formulate your impression over 10 days of -3 much more so than 2 or 3 days of 70s.

The structure of the local hemisphere is a winter look, no question. Replete with STJ rippin' over Texas and over the deep S, with a low lat trough in the SW lagging. If that were February, we'd have winter storm watches up by tomorrow morning because that mess would be coming up ... And well, it's not so metaphoric really considering there's a coastal near missing in 2 days. It sucks. It just does.