Typhoon Tip

I was out on the golf course ... we ended up paired up with an 8th grade teacher and his son in-law. Long about hole 8 or so the teacher began commiserating over the dumbing down of society. He was urging, no exaggeration, that working in a medium economic foot print school system that he does ... these kids can't do math. Like, really... 13X14 = a trip to chapGPT or they're lost. And the school system(s) are overwhelmed. They can't flunk whole grades-worth of bulk bodies. I mean ... my god. It came about because I was railing on about how since the Industrial Revolution, we've created a societal machinery where people have to think less and less - they're mistakes are cleaned up by the system.. so generational stupification ..etc He was musing on about how climate change this, nuclear wars that... the next covid or alien invasion ...? it's all going to pale in comparison when that generation starts inheriting the Earth "you have no idea" where the apocalypse agent is really hiding. it's morbidly amusing

Synoptic scaffolding of what's going on between the Azores and the Urals through that area of the hemisphere really argues for the apex of this current burst to be about 4 days from now.

Super duper bust? Moderate ENSO might still be able to penetrate RONI

mm not really. Snark aside ... I posted the monthly means every month of this last winter. We were always the coldest or proximal to the coldest region during the 3rd warmest winter on record. Oh, but look out! It'll be the warmest nights ever

It's a bit uncanny too because of the Meteorology going on over this "cold" air. It's 582 heights with 570 dm hydrostats... We've been 96 F on those parametrics before. There's something peculiar about this area of the planet Earth. It's always, always, always, at least excuse imagined, the coldest it can possibly be relative to anything allowed.

Tomorrow and Thursday may be sneaky hot... American MOS is 87 to 89 -ish, but after all this soil modulation from N VA all the way up .. and not much actual air mass change, the HI's will be 90+

Mm... to be fair, not sure how much of a "bust" this is... It rained spot 8" totals ivo of slow moving convection around the mid and upper M/A - which by nature of what that is, yeah, it's very localized ... granted. But doing so in a general 2-4" coverage from Delware to SE NH is reasonable. What busts in my mind is the amplitude in the models - to some degree, that was the case this time, just like we've seen so many times in the past since these models got updated, circa 2015, and have been consistently biased about ever since. 96 to 200+ hour range tends to "end the world" far more frequently than the pedestrian aspect that actually takes place. Some normalization is all but dependable. Again.. a filtration that still ... fails to modulate impressions of guidance by humans. This is what leads to the 2nd form of bust... (these are two concurrent busts moving past one another). Humans than exaggerating... exaggeration is not ever likely to end well for verification. Removing the wanton human goober factor, and accounting for the known model amp bias... it rained within reason. Someone else mentioned something that I liked the other day... Maybe it was Scott or Vortex95 ? but raining 6" is impressive no matter what, but it's different animal entirely when that occurs in 2 hours rather than 2 days. Basically ...it rained a decent amount over a large multi-regional aspect. Perspectives will never land on objective reality.

just under an inch here of perfect falling rate, nourishing rains. I can imagine all you dystopian codependent nega-nauts are oddly displeased by the gentle beauty of everything is awesome lol And no, Scott. when dealing with social media/blue light psychotropic stimulus addiction, a 1,000 feet of ocean covering the land will still be stein if there's no other source for a drug fix

What's up with these operational Euro and GFS just wildly gung ho happy capping summer the rest of the way. ah, okay - 'course, they tried selling that shit last month and we ended up with a heat wave for the trouble, so we'll see. But they keep carving out these anachronistic SPV bombs across S Canada - right at the climate-signaled pattern flaccidity time of the year, no less. The Euro's even trying to suppress summer in the west after their heat wave next week...suppressing summer down to TX But Europe's dead meet in ensembles. wow. The same exact bizarre repeating Omega block is now showing up from for the UK down the Iberian Peninsula. In fact, it looks even more idealized than the previous for a week from now.

It's like two things are true simultaneously. The system is going to prove too amplified by leading guidance. But, where it rains... because of other factors the rain gets exaggerated - not because of the same amplitude of the model cinemas ... So of course everyone's going to credit the wrong shit.

NAM appears to have already busted too wet in CT through 15Z ... Just a quick eye-balling of rad trends over the morning hours, looks like primarily light right with a few moments in there of moderate have taken place thus far. I can't imagine what's in the rain cans from that rad evolution, matches that plume of QPF the model painted moving through there over the same time - again...just a cursory look over. So those justifying your d-drip highs, please don't be offended.

Don, what we feared is clearly materializing in the current ensemble means from all major source. This is what I saying a week or so ago when I kidded you, 'if you wanna look brilliant, warm Europe now'. This flow construct below is just as idealized, and it is also taking place closer to the climatological apex of the N.H. summer - altho the climate doesn't/shouldn't modulate discrete forecasts, but it does buffer doubt when considering the repeating aspect here - it's hard to knock consistency. UK and the Iberian Peninsula at under the gun again.

An aspect you doubter and/or deniers and/or skeptics may need to consider more closely is that H20 in the atmosphere requires heat to maintain vapor form. I'm reading a lot in here that is entirely temperature related, but global warming/climate change is vastly more complex. The temperature is but a smaller fractional evidence of the total global quota in additive heat. That heat in homogenized atmosphere is taken from the kinetic temperature ( which is the temperature on the thermometers). That means as more water evaporates into gaseous form, the temperature metric comes down. The metric that measures the amount of moisture in the air, the Dew Point, rises. This tells you that the heat must also be rising. This can be masked if one focuses on temperature alone. 110F/ 55 is, by thermodynamic physical laws, colder than 99/80. By a large amount in fact. The ambient water vapor in the atmosphere is corroborated across multiple disciplines, from direct empirical measure to eventually satellite spectroscopy, altogether altogether demonstrating the ambient planetary water vapor has risen since the IR. Where is it getting its heat required to do so? C02, and then secondarily other species like CH3/4 (Methane) ... etc, are added to the ambient global atmosphere. These enhance storage capacity i.e., more heat stored. This causes a positive feedback. It adds to the baselines green-house physics (1), but of more import this heat (2) in turn provides more heat to evaporate more moisture. This process is called thermodynamics of phase changes; when also involving multiple compounds in the arithmetic, the contributing roots to GW is non-linear. I would suggest remedial education into the physical processes involved. By understanding that, you might light bulb that attribution science is something you could and definitely should understand before you doubt.

I wish Brain would put an AI filter of sorts that screens content ... just before the it commits to post, and if it sees 'NAM' in context to 3" of rain or 30" of snow, it bounces the post back to the poster with a message that reads "THE NAM HAS A N-W BIAS!"