Typhoon Tip

Well they do... the effort is referred to as "now-casting" ... The idea is to tailor the forecast as the results are unfolding, which moves the goal posts on whichever metric is or isn't behaving according to the plan. ...etc I good example of this is flood headline management. There's a flash flood watch issue mid way through the event, or not. Warnings then will or won't need applying ... based upon what is observed. They can forecast a high wind warning, and if only three reports of down trees occurs, that by definition verifies the warning - even though the general dystopian hobbyists expects down forests. LOL ...kidding there but you get it...

Part of the issue is that any precipitation event is background favored to over perform over quantitative/guidance-based QPF totals. This is an unavoidable aspect of CC. This storm performed pedestrian as far as Nor'easter/coastal event climatology, but over performed on QPF relative to that. It seems the relativity aspect doesn't filter analytically by many when it comes to assessing forecast. Like Wiz was intimating, ...all storms will have over and unders, and right ons. What you can do is determine the axis of modeled QPF or wind or surf ... vs whichever metric being studied. Then, plot all the empirical results on a bell-curve graph. Super impose the two graphs. If the interquartile density of results is left of the storm forecast axis/max, the system under performed. If it is over the max, it over performed. If it's closely spaced then it performed according to the guidance profile/projection.

Man ...that 3.4 is astounding really. Just a cursory evaluation and comparison of these curves, https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 .. what sets this year apart is that every curve there, other than the present year's ongoing ... demoed a period of downward trajectory between mid spring to early autumns. One can make that out just eyeballing, but if you looked at May1 to September15-ish period trend lines, even 2015 was slightly negative during that span of time. Otherwise, they were more demonstratively so. Yet, the 3.4 has risen the entire time... straight through what one can only surmise was/is a climate normal behavior for an intermediate nadir. So, for first time at least among these years since 2008 there was no intermediate negative recovery. I wonder if this would be so for all years - It's a nuance ob but it's true nonetheless. The other obvious elephant in this picture is that this 3.4 is like that jet at a memorial fly by that peals away toward the heavens.. I just find that specific aspect about the trend line since May 1/summer behavior to be interesting for unique behavior.

It’s already shallowed out to 1004 mb according to WPC

2010 was unusual for tropospheric fold event occurring along the n arc of the cyclonic envelope. More typically that’s associated with the wrap around stinger - hence the phrase ‘sting jet’ There are a lot of examples but 2005 is a good case study of the more typical sting event

this thing's winding down. 'it'll take another 36 hours of family denial before the plugs pulled but it's done

Still, we're likely to average warmer than normal after Tues .. until that fropa late Friday or whenever that occurs. It's a matter of how much. Right now... 70s ought to do it. The GFS flashed us with several runs the other day promoting a bigger show. All we've really done since then is compress those heights - the ridge exertion is still technically there but yeah, the recent guidance are imposing more polar branch than priors.

yup... I wrote about this stuff in that interim storm/Oct thread but since it's a qualitative on the month overall I'm putting it here: Impressive +PNA index by October 10. Does the PNAP respond ...? In November I'd say we're looking at an early winter trigger with this... Mid October? not so sure. But it hearkens to mind an interesting aspect about our climate recency. Multi-source/ heavily agreed upon +3 SD index and it's showing up on the actualized ensemble mean synoptic layouts, as an unusually deep and pervasive negative anomaly axis N/NE of HA in the Pacific. It's also been been growing in coherence ... This strike me as a primitive telecon outlook/and attempt by the hemisphere to yet again ... snow in October. I gotta say... I saw it snow in October ..almost never in my first three decades living either in southern lower Michigan or SNE. Since ~ 2005? at least half the Octobers, particularly in the last 15 years, have hosted either a snow or a cryo-supporting atmosphere. Snowing in November has increased as well... though the startling earliness of Octobers - in no small part because it'll be snowing with still autumn foliage in the backdrops - is more impressive. 20 years worth ... let's see if we can add another October to the swelling sample size.

Impressive +PNA index by October 10. Does the PNAP respond ...? In November I'd say we're looking at an early winter trigger with this... Mid October? not so sure. Anyway, multi-source/ heavily agreed upon +3 SD and it's showing up on the actualized ensemble means as an unusually deep and convincingly spatially involving negative anomaly N/NE of HA in the Pacific. It's also been been growing in coherence ... probably should put this in the October thread. This strike me as a primitive telecon outlook/and attempt by the hemisphere to yet again ... snow in October. I gotta say... I saw it snow in October ..almost never in my first three decades living either in southern lower Michigan or SNE. Since ~ 2005? at least half the Octobers, particularly in the last 15 years, have hosted either a snow or a cryo-supporting atmosphere. Snowing in November has increased as well... though the startling nature of it is October - in no small part because it'll be snowing with still autumn foliage in the backdrops. 20 years worth ... let's see if we can add another October to the swelling sample size.

what are the sounding/profiles like compared to the near coastal SSTs

I don't even observe much of a digging trough... This was weakly fed really. The heights just cored out from internal processes more so - though 'some 'thing of a trigger aided. But it seemed to go disproportionately deeper relative to what it started out with, after the fact, giving it an allusion of some spontaneity to it. I suggested the other day there's a transitive/non-linear forcing coming from the large scale - by definition ..that's not always exposed to convention observation techniques. Think 'rogue wave' phenomenon as an analogy. Anyway, it may be too early to claim failure on coverage. The guidance blend really has this maximizing tonight, with 988 -ish mb low approaching from the S; with 1030mb high pivoting E over top while that happens... likely lays in a pretty significant llv jet axis and given that low gets to ISP it's probably going to be pretty nasty over E CT/RI/E Mass per the course.

this next Wed - Sat looking increasingly WAR -like in the GFS's recent guidance... 00z, 06z and 12z runs GGEM's sort of coming around. Euro thinks ala carte mid November

I did not lol ... 12z GFS looks even warmer... By that, just less obstructed in general. 570+ DM thickness both Thu and Fri, with 582 non-hydrostatic isohypsis situate NW of ALB ... It's actually looking more more WAR-like

under one of those Texas Panhandle stationary super cells

Does seem like the lower tropospheric foot of the cyclone's currently snipped off the warm front and drifting just by impression of satellite.