Typhoon Tip

Inclined to agree with skepticism there. We have been dealing with this since last October... a basal trough that at times we see ridging, but we return to this footprint since prior to the ENSO switch onset. Most importantly, warm(cool) ENSO onset in summer isn't triggering much in the hemisphere. The hemispheric/seasonal cooling from N latitudes establishes improving gradient in autumn -that is when that forcing commences. To early.

I'm suspecting that we're heading for a troughy/humid end game myself. If so ... that would lower the "big heat" transport circumstances, blocked by ongoing synoptic balancing. Doesn't mean it can't happen... talking 'tendency' here ( sorry, not you per se but the common reader tends to formulate extremes in their interpretation .. failing idiosyncratic nuance and/or 'lean' ) We'll see... but there's a leitmotif in the major ensemble sources to pin a trough here regardless of the Pacific. Ex, over the next 7 days the eastern Pac passes through an impressive -PNA for mid summer... but we don't see heights rising much E of Chicago. Proooobably this is owing to the shortened wave lengths of summer in general - how that gets away with that. But here's the rub... that positive anomaly over the N-NE Pac decays, and the pattern moves ends up with trough anyway. So we're fucked either way, is what the modeling argues. Okay - Altho some folks have a more toxic relationship with heat expectations so for them, this is probably the opposite of fucked intimation haha

It's placement geographically is beside the point. The mechanism for it's persistence/necessity in the science of CC attribution et al, or for whatever reason, gets in the way of the NAO/tripole assumption. That is the point. Thus, relying on it as a predictor for atmospheric behavior tendencies/correlations therein, are riskier - because those are driven by disparate total physical processes. The NAO/tripole physics are different than the AMOC for it being a ( possible ) geologic permanent change. I'm not saying the AMOC is collapsing, per se. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. However, just advising that it is being scienced as occurring for that reason. So We'll see... But, if so ...the cold blob reflects the AMOC changes... not an NAO forcing (necessarily). Put even simpler... cold blog exists, NAO is biased positive. Tough cookies. The other aspect, the longer term correlation between the Pacific and NAO is transmitted through the N/A via the PNA. It's positive. Which means, when the PNA is positive, the NAO tends to be positive, and vice versa. So ...I'm not sure how a positive ENSO/+PNA correlation favors that -NAO ... it doesn't based on that. But that may not be the whole story - there may be something specific to El Nino that gets that anti-correlation to realize more frequently, during the El Nino winter? These kinds of exceptions exist in principle... worth looking for that. I kind of doubt it though. In the meantime, it makes intuitive sense that a +PNA jives with a +NAO and vice versa, because of winter planetary wave lengths and the speed of the basal flow. It would be hard to maintain a western N/A highly curvaceous flow and then expect the flow to bend back around into block over the D. Straight region, when flow is necessarily screwing along at ludicrous speeds due to the hemispheric gradient during DJF. Fast flow does not like curved surfaces... that's just physics. Curving the flow increases centrifugal -acceleration; and so as the flow speeds up that force is trying to cancel the curvature and flatten out. Ex, in April the flow tends to close off vortices; there is deceleration in the as the geopotential gradient is collapsing. The flow folds in on itself with the loss of basal velocity. That's probably why a latter March thru early May -NAO boat ride isn't that uncommon. Because the flow collapses and the excessive wave transport gets stranded and loads that region.

Low LCL ropers

https://phys.org/news/2026-07-arctic-winter-sea-ice-significant.html

can you loop that ..? if you ever want an analysis/proof of authenticity, that would be more useful than a still frame

Yeah, 10" of rain 30 minute run-off time to Long Island shore ... pretty bad

I'd be careful with the bold ... The straight up linear correlation, sure - that's ...sort of similar to the tripole SST state, which is highly correlated to -NAOs..etc..etc..but, the causality of why that colder region is notable there is circumstantially - quite possibly - evolved for different reason.. Mimicry, in other words. There's is ongoing research about a recent decadal persistent "Atlantic cold blob" that is being geophysically connected to a longer term changes/flux of the AMOC ... Of course, CC and attribution science is all over that. Some bigger media, definitely social media doomers, are pumping out warnings how that portends the end of the G-string circulation eddy et al ... reaming on people's chode hair that the new paradigm will mean a black and white noir this that and the other Michael Bay plot line surreality ... yadda yadda. Who knows, but the point is, if there are kernels of truth to that whole science and/or science-narrative, on-going, then it's being caused for other reasons.

nah... sat and rad trends expose a massive cosmic dildo pounding the bum of convective hopefuls

Bad Gateway -related delay/ping failure has returned. Check for another wave of foreign shitheads Also, probably could have been a part of the enhanced severe stuff today if it were not this piece of shit useless timed nocturnal garbage waste ... just exquisitely timed to make sure nothing happens but light mosquito rain

It’ll likely get switched back at some point after the balance of power flips aisles. Unless there is a coup de etat and the last of the constitution is finally cindered … otherwise most historically reliable social dynamic metrics are heavily leaning toward a pendulum swing. It’s not a big intuitive leap that when that happens, there will be sweeping referendums on a lot of the decisions that have been made in recency.

This is kind of interesting A heat wave in the Plains is obviously not that unusual at this time of year… this thing being repeatedly modeled by the GFS operational run is pernicious tho. I think this is the max day and an unrealistic high approaching 120° near Kansas. It’s also packed back west quite a bit throughout the great basin in California in the Sonoran Desert region. We’ll have to watch that cause the PNA is forecast to take a dip near the 25th… an Iindex state which I have not seen the operational models really take any steps towards acknowledging yet? That could turn out to be one hell of a release event if/when the mass fields were to seesaw into a -PNAP. There could be a little bit of non-linear forcing in here that the operation runs are doing a good job at suppressing perhaps at their own peril

So what does ACATT mean to this social media depot ?

Today could rival some of the bigger diurnal recoveries since winter ended. Which is rare by the time we get to even June, let alone latter July... But it was 48 to 52 at a lot of these in-between lower el NWS sites on their interactive page, yet many of these sites are already up 25 F over those lows. No cloud/not enough to appreciably offset heating and still solar max lasing by a relentless sun... should be able to put up some 35+ deltas.

Heh... that's probably PR. Being where it is, i.e. not being able to escape that region without hitting land, they can't afford to take chance. Sometimes these things'll fester for 4 days, while models keep prematurely spinning them up. Attention wanes... yeah yeah. Then, all at once on that 5th day, people 'had no idea' it was happening or was going to happen, but the inhibition that was poorly assessed all along, suddenly goes away, and it then m'fugger goes nuts. The PR in a situation like that is strategic. Keep 'em apprised with the headline (watch). What they can't do is be responsible for any statement that will invariably be interpreted by the Idiocracy as 'okay we don't have to worry' charter boats and tourism and no worries. For one, the Idiocracy wants to interpret that way ... To mention also, we live in a litigation-happy society that seems to excuse if not reward people for being Idiots. But I'm digressing Meanwhile, if nothing comes of it... Watch is no harm no foul.