Typhoon Tip

Tick killer cold on these NAM runs over the weekend. jesus christ

Heh...I was lookin at that. It's almost like the spread is literally too spread out and it's just lighting up the whole time span. Like it's evenly distributing members at different times.

It'll go under climo at even 80% verification of those mass fields

yeah, that's a fun euro run, no doubt - but on off on off... pick a f'n date and stick with it.

Agreed. I don't believe the front really gets E of that trough axis... I think it kind of slows as it incurs on that thing's axis; then it collapses thru after the fact.

mm hm. Sure is. The flow is in torpedo mode. So a 'few inches' whenever/wherever it occurs might be considered more of an achievement - relative to faster flow limitations. The western ridge refuses to gain latitudinal arc in the ongoing verification, and that's been/is keeping a modestly compressed, slightly faster than normal field, thus preferentially progressive. Those former two aspects are constructively interfering such that S/Ws move from circa IA clear NE of Nova Scotia in 36 hours.. What is that, 1 and 1/2 times faster than climate trajectories? I bet you we could create like an index finger rule, similar to the 1kt = 1mb, only for S/W vs output. 1::1 like that... for every 10% a S/W is moving faster than climo, that's 10% reduction in productivity. -10%, and it adds because that means the system slowed down and donut stuffed a region like Homer Simpson in hell ... who of course encounters Ned Flanders as the devil...

that bigger snow event we had recently was STJ driven. You could see it coming across the Baha up underneath a S/W opening closed low as it ejected through that area. It slid up NE over the cold dome... the rest was dopa hits -

A perversion of the Nina background state/correlation, probably could use the RONI technique I'm guessin' These ENSOs, warm and cold, have been sort of idiosyncratically uncoupled to hemispheres at times, more frequently over recent decade(s) - I recall writing about this in here, 15 years ago... Then RONI comes out and well... I don't have a problem with it because obviously (then) I was not the only one taking observational note about all this over the years. I'm just sayn' I don't have a problem and why-for there can be a generalized Nina and still manifest aspects that seem incongruent. Not that you asked LOL

00z left ..06z right. Euro I mentioned this yesterday that there's a bit of a sneaky norlan look to this. Certainly an IVT of some sort. If the former turns out true and verifying, it is less likely the models will have nailed precisely where the "unscheduled" snow fall rates set up...

Perhaps .. but that looks like it could have easily set up W-N-S-E just given the Jackson Pollock look to that overall QPF artistry.

Garbage series of runs from everything

That's the other thing ... people are referring to the times as -NAO ? Not sure that applies to next week so much. The fact of the matter is, the -NAO is rising pretty rapidly from now through that period and beyond. Oh wait ...when are you guys talking about ?

It depends... Not sure why people can't "imagine" soaring to 60? We've pulled that off at this time of year virtually every time spanning the last 8 of 'em at one point or the other. Just because we've been colder this year - okay... there's value in recognizing trend, but along the entire time we've not had models with red thickness contours as far N as we're seeing in guidance now. Meanwhile, the background tendency to go above normal at least excuse imaginable, relative to leading indicators, hasn't gone anywhere just because we had a couple of cool months. It will correct very fast if given a reason. Snow pack would offset some - but it's not clear how much if a warm front were to ever pass through. Probably a lot of low fog over rapid melt, then the next day it goes up...

As others noted... weak system... 6 days away, a stronger more physically exerting moment in the atmosphere would probably show more comparative value among the three ens means, gfs/eps/geps than what we see here. Three different looks, what could go wrong?

yeah, that's true. fast/speed is you know this is a good use case to help demo for whom ever needs it, how speed gets in the way. you can get a sense of that by looping how this SPV zooms in - that's a lot of mass to be moving that fast se, and so it then low captures ... after which it foists it back NW. It's like grabbing a running back from the back of their jersey for the tackle. That's the deep layer vortex actually outpacing the lower levels. I tell you what tho. Even with this whole mess trying to work out in a fast field, if the western heights were to amp a little that might offset that tendency enough for this to become a player. Not trying to hot dose anyone's dopa for the day just sayn what needs to go right.