Typhoon Tip

Imagine 96% of the world rendered dark interminably due to a Carrington redux event

Thing is... we're never going to get an 'Andrew' up here. We can get a higher tier event, obviously. 1938 and maybe 'Carol' in the '50s demo that. But the true big dawgs are necessarily coupled to a 79.x+ oceanic thermal source that we just cannot really provide N of the Del Marva. Altho - in recent decades we've seen transient very shallow thermoclines with 80 in the shelf waters S of LI. That's like a 7 to 10 day window in late August. It's really shallow though. 10 minutes of NW flow from an early autumn mock trough and it's scoured down to 72 pretty fast. Not clear whether an exquisitely timed Express event at cat 4 would be coupled to that but I don't think it's sufficient. But to the point y'all makin' it's not necessary to get the dystopia. A busted open deep transitioner still whacking a wallop equiv Cat 3 racing up the CT River Valley ... yeah, that would do the trick. It would spread enough cane gusts and gustnado swarms up over eastern CT/RI/MA and S NH to pretty much shut it all down.

if the flow ends up unidirectional in relation to the isohypses from the NW ? meh

Heh, not passion. truth - I just don't give a shit to tread lightly around people that haven't earned it. Call-outs suck. too bad.

84/67 then with sun beamin' straight down it's gettin' there

What sticks out for me relates to a broader topic... That's a pretty classic tripolar anomaly distribution, which is correlated well with -NAO Now, at a 50, 000 foot linear correlation the -NAO is typically found during EC cane threats. The reason can actually be summed up in one sentence: -NAO means blocking at higher latitudes, which is all but required and prevents a Bahama routed cane from turning NE early. Up they come... But there's a caveat emptor: ...the NAO is not persistent at seasonal scales. So, merely noting the tripole mode isn't enough. However, its presence means there's a propensity for waxing and waning of the negative mode. If one is a cane/denudation of LI enthusiast ... replete with all the sociopathic wanton of calamity ... ( LOL ), that is good news. Yay. you at least have increased potential death and loss of property because the hemisphere is in a favorable super synoptic implication.

It's a dangerous time... This is a perfect sort of historic storm unfolding. We've created a civility protected from the problems in the environment, meanwhile ... the relative advantages of that same protection does a couple of things that are big-time negative feedbacks. One ... blinds the same civility from experiencing, thus cannot as readily see nor believing the problem is real - "the until it is too late" trope unfortunately becomes most apropos. Contributing here, I firmly believe that the limitation of a humanity to dimensionalize at such large scales ... is also an offset competition to competency. Two, spoiled it's population (and leaders) into believing that not agreeing with science and empirical fact is an entitlement to do so - very odd. Fake news and the tongue-in-cheek "alternate facts" that began 20 some years ago, isn't just a party trope. It's a fucking major problem. And thus demonstrate no compunctions exercising entitlement whenever science informs their actions are the problem. (One + Two )/ 2 = the mathematics of brickery May also = a nice and tidy Fermi Paradox explanation... 2023 demonstrated that the Earth lags in GW; the metaphor 'under tension' fits. The rate at which the "Anthropocene" epoch has introduced it's loading into the system (you could argue this epoch began when "Lucy" first picked up a burning stick ... but the vast majority just in the last 3-or-so hundred years) has outpaced the system's ability to respond. After all, we are talking a whole planet. But that tension has been growing more and more taut. As soon as background competing offsets falter just a little bit? Booinnnng. That .5C sudden globular scaled temperature responses taking place all at once ( in the spring that year) was an planet restoring; unilaterally, all systems of ocean, air and quasi coupled ocean-air systems. Here's a thought ... when you consider the human experience, the event of a bomb going off is almost instant. If you think of the planet as experiencing along geologic time spans, the 2023 was just as instantaneous. That becomes an analog for a bomb going off. Whole planets rising a half degree C something never before observed - the lack of recognition as a phenomenon is ... again, I believe the scale is too big to comprehend by too many

At first glance the 500 mb height cinema's structural handling looks like roasting in the Lakes then shunting S of us.. but idiosyncratically air mass leads the SE Canadian SPC flex that happens later this week so a tranche of the heat burst (modeled 500 mb soaring to nearly 606 over IA!) gets pulled around that large scale change/leads. So... Tomorrow's about +19C at 850 mb with ample W to WNW boundary layer flow tumbling over the terrain... After a morning of full sun, we're definitely mixing through that layer. The adiabats would support a 1000 mb T of 96 ... so the 2-m slope T is probably close to 100F ... So NWS issuance of headlines. Using that as metric ..this is classic over topper. Probably falls short of a heat wave, but it will be intense for the probably thu Wed. Tuesday night lows may remain impressively elevated. This is different than the heat wave in that their be more breeze so that's a blessing.

Well, that’s a hot deal on Tuesday Nother night that night whence the temperature doesn’t drop very much

I think the evidence grows that there is a population in NWS that just doesn’t like heat and doesn’t want to hear about it. They lean less, and insults intelligence in a way, as tho we don’t see right through it… They downplay it or mock it or do things like that because what’s really going on is their personal attitudes and perspectives overwhelm and it bleeds in - I get it no humans perfectly objective… But it goes the other way too I don’t care what these fucks feel that don’t like hyperbole about heat and extremes tho. Guess what ? it is that bad and it needs to be hotly expressed no pun intended, because nobody is paying attention enough to what is clearly an existential threat. We are in a physical mass extinction event, and there is no other culprit that science can physically connect that isn’tglobal warming. Fuck it talking bricks

Give us some Bahama Blues

Yeah.. the part of I left out about that - because few people in here read anything longer than a blurb anyway - is that the surrounding medium is very warm. Comparing to your example, 582 to 584-ish non-hydrostats over Colorado is lot different than trying to run a 542 dm core up there when there's heights nearing 600 just west of Chicago like what the GFS was selling as near-by as 120 hours. The gradient is unusual for mid summer - mechanically contributing to why there is a such a long wave lengths ( also, highly unusual at this time of year) between eastern Canada and the Urals of eastern Europe - another point I was making. Under the radar bigger anomalies because they don't affect people directly - perhaps - but they're there nonetheless. May all be a moot conversation anyway... I suspect the GFS is over amplified with the dipole between Iowa and N QUE. I would bet on the 597 dm hgts in IA before I would bet on the <545 dm heights up there. I just check the euro and it's backing off that idea up there on this 12z so we'll see but it's likely it was a bs. I've been watching the GFS for year do this. I think it's too efficient or something with the pseudo adiabatic machinery ( physically). Because it over produces height falls ivo troughs and then ends up with surpluss depth.. It then tends to accumulate ( talking about the operational version) out in time such that by D10 ... ( when it doesn't matter anyway hahaha), it's consummately deeper than every other guidance since incense burners sniffed glue.

question is ... how much of this survives an over-the-top delivery before the flow collapses into and around that autumn pattern later next week... Never seen sub 545 dm SPV over N Quebec, doing so in mid/late July nearing the perennial hottest time of the climate year, but the GFS is just getting more and more absurd ... not backing off, as we get closer. This 120 hours... uuuusally when the amplitude starts to normalize. We'll see tomorrow but jesus christ with this beast! Euro's 10 or so dm shallower but still depicting the highly anomalous SPV, too. It's not just that ... the west-NW Euro heat wave and associated ridging is paradoxical to that. The teleconnector correlations are in anti. kind of fascinating... It appears that what's going on is a very powerful -NAO, perhaps record breaking for summer ... **but** because it is situated so far E some of it's mass is lapsed outside the NAO domain space, so when calculating the EOFs ... we're missing something. Only getting these -1.5 type SD numerology from the agencies that calculate it. Meanwhile, this trough you see over eastern Canada is actually part of the same large scale wave structure - in and of itself highly unusual for summer months. These features are just exotically amplified overall. what the f chuck! part of my wild imagination is that the models are just expressing some sort of desperate attempt at budgeting/explaining CC on some level. Because... if it were as hot in Europe, to then shallow that trough over eastern Canada, they'd have to go ahead and admit we're at the 1.5C threshold now. ha.

That could tell us something about the reality of the urgency/risk to actual people. First, there's the "facade" of crisis, then ... we have to pay to find out how it will harm us? Riiiight - What ...? so let's venture a scenario. Suppose the Canary Islands over there SSE of the Azores go on ahead a bifurcate in a geological event that sldes the western slope of the trillion trillion trillion ton volcanic shield's mass into the Atlantic depths ... sending enough wave energy to surge up a 1,000 foot high tsunamis into the eastern seaboard of America. Media-sphere holds back, unless we spend 2.99 on a paywall site to find out what's going on. Another 4 bucks for the premium service of finding out how one can save their ass or die. That's right ... 4 bucks or you die! It's tacky at best. I mean that's obviously a fictional/exaggerated depiction there but it takes elaboration of circumstance to brightly identify the point. If it is really harmful, the ethical thing to do is tone down the rhetoric and up the expediency of useful/vital information -

I bet you the strength of the trade anomaly is going to be offset for those temperatures - in other words somewhat anti-correlated. Not enough of an anomaly to support that. Just a hunch. I’ve long been harboring the notion that this El Niño is entering into a synergistic feedback with the background - possibly for the first time in human history are we seeing something like this at this kind of a scale? And I’m not sure we can use that to cast dystopian outlook on the winter either. It’s almost like if everything is warm, the gradient aren’t sufficient to generate the restoring to make it wild. Oh, I’m sure it’ll be one blizzard too formulate an argument against. But over the total winter? The motif … I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s just mild and boring.