Typhoon Tip

Perhaps too early to drill into details but a flatter wave correction toward middling low depth will tend to parallel the flow with the isobaric layout … basically an ENE vs a NNE/NE with cf genesis … that’s going mean snow tot headaches for eastern zones.

The pattern recognition/suggestion/modulating favorably into the first week of Dec has been in the scaffolding of the outlook since at least two weeks ago. It’s not suddenly emerging thus challenging … that’s good. Perhaps even reassuring but I could see this robbing 20 someodd percent squeeze limiting things. Interesting testing modeling perf this time vs that leitmotif

This isn’t relaying off the eastern Pacific via a S route/split stream (along the 564) until ~ Sat morning … traversing the continent in 72 hrs in fast compression/progressive flow type. Those circumstances don’t lend to confidence even at this range. Still, at least the wave space actually existing in the field is higher confidence. Something’s there. But smaller giga corrections are like .5 deg on golf ball swing ending up on the left or right side of the fairway at a 200+ yd drive - it’s why fast flow bangs around model perf I’m also leery of model-biased amplitude —> correcting down post arrivals out of assimilation regions. Once this relays into the denser sounding array, as we’ve observed more frequently than not … there’s been this recurring theme of correction toward less by 20some % … suggesting an over evaluation was taking place and running that out into mid range results in fantasy.

This worked out reasonably well

Suppression, kind of is negative interference… But yeah, either way we look at it

In fact it would harm matters

The majority don’t appear to have this right, anyway. There is no SSW.... there never was yet. There may be one about Dec 7 or so... but antecedent to the -WPO/ -D(EPO) that was not the case. This is a ridging that is emerging from mid to upper troposphere and the tropopausal heights are elevated around the N arc of the ridge at upper levels; that does have an effect on the morphology of the PV. As I explained the other day, it may be splitting hairs? Either way, a -WPO/-EPO arc can arrive into that scenario however it does, when it gets into that mode, we load ... cold air in the winter. The cold you noted in Canada ( 2-meter temp anomalies... and 850...etc), that is a direct result of the activated loading pattern. This is just -WPO/-EPO, nothing else. Not sure why social media can't help itself but go from 0 to sci fi drama with such little excuse to do so - sometimes I suspect it's society dopamine plague since we've become tech zombies. How's that for sci fi. jesus As far as the colder pattern, this is all greater confidence than people are letting on - a lot of which I suspect is not having patience. Part of the problem of visualizing these changes at long leads ... ( over 15 days in some case...), about 5 days in waiting all the doubts start happening ... People expect to see things now. Meanwhile, models will come in and out of the signal ( operational versions). By the way, here's the 360hr 10 hPa GFS prog... this is a warm intrusion - we'll see if it's real.

Fell for the bait ... after 20 something years of this pastime, too

You're a lost soul to the realm you were meant to roam. Utqiagvik calls to you. The sun just set at that location and won't rise again until January 22nd.

Definitely a colder complexion returned to the guidance overnight. There were some odd solutions there for a couple cycles when considering the principle component/indexes. Likely it was just typical pattern change guidance games all along. We see this going the other way in April where the indexes suggest the season's first big warm up ... but then the GFS wanders off in a spontaneous pita-flop day dream in the other direction. So in this situation .. I'm wondering if we might end up in a split flow type during those first couple of weeks of Dec. There's likely to verify that large scale -WPO/-EPO changing of the guard over the Pacific, but there's been some persistence in the various ensemble clusters to pin the geopotential anomalies along 120 W. Typically that results in flow bifurcation over the Pac NW, with the N resulting stream being a cold loader flow spanning across Canada, while the S branch meanders through the S Rockies... This can be good for overrunning storm types. If the blocking features lose latitude if/where they set up ...that may trigger more +PNA response underneath than we are presently seeing - whole different ball game. But the idea here is a seasonal dump ( we'll see if all this results in more as the times near) of polar-arctic cold at least down to 40 N across the Continent. As far as particularly dailies and what storms form, if/where those do or not... etc etc... too vague for the time being to make much of any play call.

Shhhhh My internal monologue sarcastically said something similar when I saw that run... But it looked less coherent with the EPO aspects... it's like it dropped below the threshold ( probably in error by doing so - ) where it's no longer forcing down stream over the continent by being too weak. That's why it has semblances of the NE Pac mode but dwindles. Goes without saying .. we don't sweat it beyond D7.

That's an ugly Euro run... It's also a fantastic continuity break for a span of time outside of D7 so meh. But it's attempting a -EPO with zero discernible pattern implications for S of 40 N across the continent. that'd be a neat trick.

26 here already

That’s always possible in fast flow but those look spaced reasonably well. It also helps that they’re both flat waves and probably more middling intensity

I don’t understand what the big deal is with the Epstein files anyway… you’re not gonna be seeing the real ones anyway. The only reason why there’s any kind of impetus to release those files finally is because they’re finally done redacting them – obviously