Typhoon Tip

you can see the snow coverage pretty fantastically here... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

ha... watch, the polar boundary ends up PIT - ACK ...and we have 38 -r with one or two pellets that day

Yeah, 3" seems a lot. It may be enough 'in the bank' to last it out.

I doubt it... The continent is too dry. The flow is WSW under that polar boundary transporting a kinetically charged well mixed layer originating from the west TX high country. Good luck. If we are safely in that warm conveyor like the GFS? not much cloud. That's a red flag warning scenario there this early and prior to our own geographical green up. Even if the RH sigmas are juicier ( 800 to 300 mb levels) I'd personally lean on that being dryer verifying.

Yeah, I'm also at the same time a little apprehensive about going super warm at any point prior to getting that fucking piece of shit 90/60 negative anomaly scoured out of the Canadian Shield once an for all. It's not like it's very readily observable as an influence, but it is definitely an influence our our weather, nonetheless. The polar boundary with the exceptional temperature gradients we've been observing along the S periphery of the rough NP-GL-NE/MA regions is because it is up there, perpetually loading dope cold into those regions ( or attempting to); at the same time there's a CC residue/tendency to go above normal where ever and when ever the sun is working on Industrial stained atmosphere underneath it. Historic heat wave in PHX, notwithstanding. Lot of descriptive prose in there that probably lost the comprehension of about 6 return users ...with a possible 7th, but excluding those razor sharp contributors to the site brain, most people are aware of both the frequency, and rareness, of 34 to 80 across a mere 200 miles phenomenon recurring this spring so far. In addition to steepening the gradient ...it also prones our region to BDs and/or failing warm frontal positions in general. But, you know ... there are two aspects concurrently true, and are observationally competing. We are not hugely below normal in temperatures to date - in fact, +3 in March at HFD and ORH! The pattern is a colder than normal construct. That concurrent state is a nuance that I fully personally believe exposes the fact that heat is merely just suppressed, but not absent. And there is a difference there. Whopping important one, too. For one, it's confusing... but for another, it's hard to go multi-day safely in a warm sector while all this stuff is in play.

how much did you wind up with ? I bet with high sun shining on snow, the dry wet-bulb actually ends up being a sublimation hisser. It'll be evaporating like dry-ice man. The sun doesn't just 100% bounce off the snow... it will warm the molecules in air-contact interface, to above the DP temp and that's evaporating quickly. Like an "acid layer" eating into it. It's less like melting pack and more like going directly to gas at an accelerated rate that way. But obviously.. one wouldn't notice this if you have a ton to start

As an aside, today and tomorrow both should bust MOS like 1-3 F I think. It's not a huge or even noticeable thing. Not 'busts' per se. Just that we are Sep 3 sun equiv, with just about as unadulterated solar as is physically doable on this planet, with the possible exception of say 1,000 miles out amidst the Sahara ... I doubt these machine numbers have the lowest 500 feet of explosive super adiabats locked down. It's a fetish of mine to test MOS in April and May

I suppose if you have 6 days to know it's coming by the time it does, meh. When it comes to na na na-na scaling ( haha ), in order of irate the least is that one. 3 is knowing for days your fucked. Oh k... gradual acceptance. 2 is surprisingly BD's ... you'd think they'd be #1 but no... Usually you have some inkling that a BD is possible. Also, knowing it's BD time of year ... 1 is when it is warm for days in the charts. Plans are made. Then, the models pull the rug at that sweet 36 hours ahead deliberate look. This rendition is the most annoying. To help qualify this .. imagine a historic blizzard, not like that isolated SE Mass job last Feb... I mean interior VA to Maine, in 2-3 feet of snow, with a stall off Montauk Point across 2 cycles of Lunar tides, for 5 days of guidance. Nat Guard is on call... APs are preemptively canceling flights. General states panic as ems light up FEMA web-site graphic. General state of dopa O.D. awe --> 36 hours out that first model run with nothing. umm

KFIT GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/08/2026 0000 UTC WED 08| THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| CLIMO 33 55 X/N 48| 24 59| 35 66| 44 60| 32 60| 44 70| 55 75| Heh, nothing like being 20 points above climo at both ends of the diurnal range, at 6 days lead time in a MOS product that is pretty heavily weighted toward climatology at that range ... I do think next week is kind of 'first test' for this summer - personally - because I feel this year's season has a shot at some historic heat. The reason primarily being the pan-dimensional dry antecedent continent, with lower persisting soil moisture anomalies, right as we are about to jump into the highest sun angles of the year. Keep in mind, we are less than 1 month from solar max entry... on or about May 6. We just need to shed the 90/60 polar vortex and things can turn around and catch civility off-guard. We still live in a CC-enraged synergistic heat event planetary system and that's not going away... This seems to be a good candidate year to test if we send the mercury into over-achieving warm results, both relative to pattern... but relative to "when it gets hot". Again, we need to get the patterns ...so we'll see. In the meantime, this next Tues/Wed, if that boundary does hull up NW and leaves our region soaked in WSW flow of dry kinetically charged air mass, that's an opportunity to over perform. Being 20 over climo weighting at D6 isn't trivial

The targeted for misery factor might be even more delicious the next day on Wednesday...

Brian's rage would know no bounds should this be the status at 21z this next Tuesday afternoon. Or PF! haha. Nothing like an 82, Metrowest of Boston, while it's a warm cloth to the balls 38 in N VT

MOS should bust cool on Thursday

looks like sun for an hour along the Pike

By standard non-relative ONI convention, the strength index denotes 1.5 as the cut off for "strong" As I said, the modeling ( per CPC ) presently shows a cluster mean < than 1.5 (... granted, it's rising when the graph cuts off at the end of OND, only slowly). The problem is, RONI is a very necessary method for assessing how the ENSO modes might integrate/couple with the surrounding dispersion into the mid latitude pattern. It is less integrating, due to CC, for the purpose of discussion. But it's also not absolute... it's just an assessment tool. Those ENSO modes back before ~20 years ago took place in enough of a different global environment that a more linear approach was a better predictor. This is why the Relative ONI was constructed, because as the climate change accelerates ( frankly ) all these indices are either going to get suss or are already so. Anyway, CPC model mean rises to +1.3 or +1.4 but unfortunately the outlook cuts off before we know if mid winter rises beyond 1.5 ( probably so, just based on the trajectory of the graphical mean). However, laboring to 1.5, doing so during the Relative ONI methodology arm of a very coherent CC acceleration, doesn't smack as strong or super in the end hemispheric coherence. I think there's some excitement seeking - like another crowd emergent motif. Sometimes it just hits at the right timing, and it's vastly over popularized. It may in fact go on to rise to 2.8 ...becoming something special, but I wanna know what are the mathematical/analytic reasons.

The modeling looks like the key 3.4 region rises to just under +1.5 toward this next Xmas. Makes sense I suppose ... El Nino is Spanish for "Christ child" and is given to the name of the phenomenon for a reason; the canonical time of year for it to occur. Anyway, 1.5 is not super this or even very strong that. Where is this extremeness coming from ?