Typhoon Tip

Lot of convective rains too.... Could be thundery warmth

Look at the ass hammerin' abuse the NAM afflicts Boston with on this 12z grid for Thur, compared to Albany and New York City... The highlight are the T1 temperature... actual SFC is typically 3 or so warmer than these. Luckily for warm enthusiasts, the wind field at Logan on Thursday is only 8kts so it's not likely moving west of the city... but jeez! OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z APR 14 26 TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 ALB//864549 -1800 162203 59151207 BTV//944846 00505 160304 55090706 06000576954 -2996 091917 63241608 06000798766 11400 071510 60161307 12013654356 03797 082814 64231607 12025944631 00999 073110 61151205 18000853022 -3003 122912 62161509 18002973223 -3006 143307 56050708 24000974357 01701 142402 61131509 24000964160 00006 141504 57061207 30001798361 -0196 112111 64201610 30022989263 15800 111708 59111207 36005749067 -2697 102108 66221609 36008959169 03800 102011 60161306 42119999367 03199 090701 65181509 42002997344 -0103 093304 60131007 48052926953 -1701 103106 64161409 48000986339 -1703 110103 59090907 54000717153 -0899 091502 65211408 54000907850 -1004 101503 60131006 60000627337 15997 042119 67241809 60018989567 27599 041111 63151307 BOS//742946 -0203 152811 60171308 LGA//774047 00700 163104 62191709 06000616339 -2501 121410 61211508 06000545045 -1698 132011 64241710 12000725866 02597 082123 66191811 12000535544 -1696 112418 67251911 18005762735 -3499 092718 64191510 18000716556 -0398 122911 65221811 24000802325 -2206 133607 62151610 24000764830 -1297 142408 65201710 30000727561 -2002 141211 63141408 30000596752 -2796 131910 67251811 36002897366 -3098 121612 65131710 36000505148 -3697 112216 70262013 42031989070 24698 091002 66111810 42000685853 04497 102316 69222113 48058989169 -1099 123508 64071410 48000685952 00200 112615 68211713 54001897248 -0402 120408 64081310 54000523744 -1799 092210 70261814 60000985249 03998 111008 65051611 60000422654 -2501 072218 69251913

73 ... might be able to add a tick or even two before the 10:05 "10 after 10" is mid 80s. The old standard ...ha.

yeah, why? Just curious. Trees/forestry science isn't my bag. Like at all. Complete dolt. I'm just curious what their 'pernicious' quotient is. Threatening native diversity? it seems to me they are a new members, so that increased the diversity. Unless you mean something else ...

I was wondering about those... Don't have any around here in town, but they should be open with those maple flowers that give off that pleasant background aroma. I love that. Norway Maples are denoted an "invasive species" but they are kind of a welcome army in book.

Not "right", just asking the question. But yeah, ... need to keep in mind 80 F is ahead of climo by a considerable margin. I've seen several of these since the big one, Mar 29/30/31 1998. We hovered around 90 those three days of lore. Jaw drop early heat. Prior to that... never. I never had experienced, in my life, temperatures exceeding 80F prior to May 1sts. I've lived in two regions of the country in my time: SW lower Michigan; SNE. The climate of these two regions are quite similar. Prior to the last 20 years.. cold winters, then continental sub-tropical summers, with wildly variant transition seasons in between. Both are getting "climate traumatized" in the last couple of decades...but excluding that for a moment, there are subtle differences... Namely, winters tend to be drier out there, and perhaps a modestly colder but not sensibly or even geo-physically significantly different. SNE tends to more proficient snow fall when it is actually snowing. Then of course, Michigan deals with Lake Effect activity in the winters. I left the Michigan climate behind in 1984 as an early teenager. So obviously the ballast of my climate experiences in life are SNE at this point. That said, neither region did I experience or observe 80F in Mar or Apr, prior to 1998. Since than, I've seen 80 to even 90F become "occasional" to Mar and Apr's. SO, tho it is way early ( still, with a light cough), it's happened enough for there to be some expectation to "get on with summer once winter ends". It's like we're in climate interpretive limbo

His linear, arithmetic approach to the question is not how nature works. He doesn't appear even aware of "synergy" in the system, emergent properties of complex systems that are wholly dependent upon the interactions of products, that cannot be very coherently pre- assessed or predicted because they do not exist until they are manufactured by the system. A+B --> A' C+D --> C' ; A' + C' --> A'' where A'' is the synergistic bi-product. If we really wanna roll sleeves in how nature works, A, B, C, and D, are all partial derivatives occurring in time - it's really more like d(A)+d(B) --> A' d(C)+d(D) --> C' ; d(A') + d(C') --> A'' We've been talking about this for years at this point in here. The increased frequency of 'extra special' heat waves, Globally, surpassing all predictive tools ( sometimes by very large margins ), have already been denoted as "synergistic heat waves" in various climate publications/among the compendium of accredited sources. There's probably going to need some discrete reanalytic study, but it's much more likely that the heat in the SW U.S. during March was a phenomenon of this ilk.

Curious if today busts MOS by a bit. MET/MAV are 78 to 82-sish along the BDL-FIT-ASH arc here in the interior. +14.5 C at 850, and the mixing layer appears capable of being that high today ..., extrapolates to about 27.5 C at the 1000 mb hash on the skew t plot, and that doesn't include the slope to the 2-meter T. Probably 30 C at the absolute bottom if/when these skies remain this sunny along with these other synoptic circumstances. Deep layer flow is WSW like this and not over-bearing DP whilst a 50+ launch should be 84 or 85 to allow April to force a conserved high. A month from now I'd even go 87

I'd like to see a couple more runs with a modicum of realized continuity on that. The Euro and particularly GGEM the most, appear too conserved ( to me ... ) wrt a wave ejecting E through a ridge trying to amplify at that time. The GFS, pains me to admit ... is damping that waves ability to materialize that feature; which in the total synoptic manifold/evolution over those days really argues it should. Anyway, so the former rides a mid level wind max over a series of stacked outflow boundaries and oatmeals a Miller B out of 1010 mb layout... okay -

mm... storms turn right. I wouldn't be surprised if Mohawk Trail initialization starts peeling S ...sending more anvil up our way.

I was shocked to see the overnight NAM solutions back off the Wednesday afternoon BD arrival for eastern region. I think what's actually happening is that there isn't a ton a synoptic support/structure for genesis and subsequent motion in this case. It appears the models have been handling rain cooled air. There's are periodic/ nondescript convective pulses of QPF running W-E up in central and NNE, and coupling outflow with GOM oceanic cold is causing subtle +PP discontinuities. They can be real though.. but seeing the NAM back off is a red flag that convective logistics with outflow is problematic.

Bump for extension

Well there's a statistical history for a time-lagged onset of -NAO, after warm anomalies over the eastern continent. The snow in October 2011 was in fact preceded by a week of warm anomalies mid month that just summarily relayed into western limb blocking and history became so.. Just one example in many. Some of the March snows in late 20teens were also preceded by early warmth. etc etc Not mentioning snow because I think it's gong to snow, so don't go on me. I'm just mentioning to emphasize the evidence. A colder regression before a true seasonal escape is a scenario that has some precedence.

we've had snow in the air in interior SNE a half a dozen times since 2000, in the last 2 weeks of May. something that was not occurring nearly as frequently in the 200 years of white man climo before that. There's a reason why CC contributes to that... papers written. start the fight .. now!

that psychology doesn't care if actually happens, Jer' haha. c'mon