Typhoon Tip

Makes sense with us locally as we've observed BN but not out of control for the period in question. Like I was suggesting to Will earlier, I wonder if the February numbers were colder than January for those regions of western Europe, Eurasia, China/Siberia, because the January alone didn't have these regions.

These extended products, like the Eu W and the GE, lag behind the standard 360-hr ranged ensemble means by several computational cycles. In fact, I think we're on the 2 day stint at the moment. There'll be another run tonight... I'd be surprised if the next GEF-based extension looks the same. Either that, or the more current week 2 regular 360-hr would needs to change.

Good question ... ... we are past the solar min and moving toward March when things start to happen or hint that times are changing. Albeit slower vs faster depending on the year in question. This year one might think it would be slower, based on persistence alone. There are other reason's though to suspect it may take longer than the 2nd week. I think when it trips it's going to be dramatic. This is a candidate year for us to go from cool bias temps and even storm ptype contention and enabled perception with heads buried in proverbial winter snow, ... straight to 70s the following week. LOL. When that happens, definitely has to be after the 10th though and it may take closer to the 20th..

For the spring enthusiasts: oh god here it comes... Pleasy weesie, with sugar on top ... end this

This winter may have been a good example of how ENSO is too heavily relied upon in seasonal outlooks and always has been. About 12 or so years ago ... even NCEP began cautioning in their seasonal outlooks that the polarward indices can at times overpower and lead to break down of the correlations they use - name ENSO as primary - for more N latitudes such as the NP-GL-N OV and NE regions. This season's layout smacks like it was a poor La Nina performer over N Amer.

I wonder if the Eurasian/China anomalies were more in the February time span. The just January was quite a bit different - but it was also a different source I'm guessing just judging by the graphics' complexion, too.

Yeah, this is the best way to look at it (bold). That f'n look though... this below? this is the worse for the most possible people. You're not getting spring; you're not getting storms because of elephant ass on trampoline kinematic stoppage. Worst for the most possible people and no one can rejoice, misery.

All I'm saying is that if that ends up going from a -EPO, into that ? Back is not broken. But to be fair ... it also depends on what we want to call back breaking. It's subjective ... Relaxing the never get as high as 32 F with lows between 0 and 15? Okay. But if we are replacing with 4 or 5 days of napage, only to then follow by unfunnable indeterminably long compression windy cold no storms shit eating 37 F... "to me" that is trying to oversell the back as actually having been broken. But like I said ..that's just me talkin' Now, if we want to argue that -EPO loads cold into a massive historically preposterous P.O.S. oddity flow, won't happen? fine.

Agreed ... but it may be transient. I'd like to say we turned the corner but the longer range has different ideas. There may only be a relaxation in the recent relative cold persistence for 5 days but that deep range -EPO ... it's going to load cold anew but where? After that rough Mar 2 -7th -EPO the hemisphere evolves into a strange look - all the ens system agree too so no luck there. 90% of all negative anomalies in the entire N hemisphere are compressing the flow from Chicago to S of Greenland toward the end of the first week of Mar. This being directly after said -EPO, it's like the ballast of all the cold available is completely displaced off the polar field, and is jamming SE. Spring canceled if this sets ... period! Not saying it will... Strange orientations like this sometimes have a way of not happening. LOL. This is about the only way to be cold when the numerical fields derive to a +EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO (the NAO may be +23 here!!)

Decreasing in significance.. The ensembles appear to be getting more members opting toward a frontal pass with a wave on it, rather than an organized kink cyclone on the boundary that rides up after like those tastier runs before. The operational versions almost lost it all together on the 00z cycles ... I'm sort of losing patience with these models correcting faster/progressive, in the sense that I don't believe any of these "threats" any longer. Not sure how one can after this unflappable persistence to degenerate storm spaces. They're (models) are doing it again... the whole season's been plagued by this rug pulling aspect. It looks like a thing may just work out but as the period in question moves into mid range, the heights lower too much from the N two aspects begin: offsets the short wave strength; speeds things up so that even if we got something of it it's barely an afternoon's worth.

yeah those last couple of frames is suspect considering the changes that have taken place... We'll see. I was talking about the operational run -

yeah i don't get that behavior. cultural relativism is for the birds, that straight up looks like a Darwin thing happening - hopefully it works.. help with the global population issues

Oh, so rainy ... hm

I actually don't hate the 28th - heh, things break according to the tele's that's the last snow event of the season ( prior to bowling ball times.. but those are something else) But the flow is relaxed(ing) with more a backed off EPO allowing the western component ridge of the total +PNA mode to maybe for once this year actually pop a bit more. Just setting the table here...