Typhoon Tip

I love that when that happens. We're suddenly alleviated here in the last hour. Steady morning rains bangin' away at the awnings had become sort of hypnotic. Somewhere between that state and a sun burst just splashed through the windows me must of finally escaped - or begun the break out process.

except that the trees will be dripping through 4 pm LOL

models keep insisting ...some more aggressively so than others, that the rains end and the sky parts over the next 3 hours, west to east. Even some hints at a rapid temp recovery. we'll see. Right now this band appears to be over performing compared to the NAM/Euro.

mm what stands out to me is that all these operational runs are wildly colder than their respective ensemble clusters at 850 mb by several degrees. Just a-priori on operational model guidance in meridian/slope flow types, they tend to carry an amplitude bias in the mid range to a significant correlation frequency. I'll concede if by hour 72 the means have deepened, otherwise for this type of synoptic hemisphere we've seen this kind of cold sell before.

June 6-10th ov/upper ma/ne

.45"

not sure about the resolution of this CPC product, nor therein ...how well it reflects the real physical state out there but this looks like the deeper warm plume's slightly shrinking

I think in world with so many moving parts in parallel, it should be just as possible to have MDW be fluid based upon whether god's being an asshole or not. Oh, rain - fuck you! next weekend's MDW. Rain again? fuck you again... keep on going until god stops being a fuckin asshole

man sometimes i frustrate that these models have been covertly corrupted to finding the coldest physical solution quantum mechanically possible in the CC world ... like to hide it or something. fuckin gfs piece of shit

Euro's been doing that all along

12z CMC trended better for summer enthusiasts ... it's something.

39 to 60... Funny, it was 38 here this am when I crept down the stair. 'The house is chillier down here', apparently having finally forgotten the warmth the other day. Typically it takes 30 or so hours for the 'thermal edifice memory' to fade. I debated flipping the compressor to heat mode. It was just 59. I don't think it's improved much. Something about May-22nd pisses me off enough to stubbornly prevent myself. SO... ah, 61 ..I may as well just open the windows now and let the warm air in. Winning

Subjective reply here but ...I'd even go worse than 'mehhh' I'd say there's a decent chance that's a piece of shit, down right frustration that pushes one's patients closer to pulling the trigger on a relo These protracted continental folding patterns that cause the Maritime to try and fist it's way back SW all the way to Florida thing that's been (apparently) a paradoxical /counter-intuitive consequence of CC ...are getting unbearable. As an aside, I had a feeling we would have a problem with this, this particular latter spring this year...because of the way the persistent upstream seasonal pattern behavior was. Since last October, really... I showed the evidence of this every month during the cold season, Nov-Apr... despite those 3 or 4 months having averaged ( Globally ) in contention for 3rd warmest since Humanity became a geological force in Earth's history ( eh hm), the NE CONUS/SE Canada were persistently showing relative offset cooler than everywhere else. This was true whether we were technically above average those months, or not. It's like always coming in last? I still see vestigial markers for that still going on, tho harder to see it. It's some kind of fractal in the hemisphere that hasn't broken completely down... and having these back ward carving Maritime troughs like the current Euro and GFS are doing is some kind of "non-Markovian" bias playing out.

Could. Depends on what guidance one chooses. The Euro's the best; the GFS is worst. I just compared their respective ceiling RH levels. The Euro's ~ 6 hrs faster in the wholesale deep layer. Has a sharp back edge clearing in the 300 and 500 mb levels by 12z...with <= 50% in the 700mb by 18z going clear by 21 z. As is such...it's 2-m Ts are 68 to 72, but the 900 mb T argue that it's really warmer than that in the "real" 2-m ... The GFS, being slower with back edge not only retards any recovery but actually is still raining through 15z. It does finally clear in time to salvage the afternoon but the damage is done, and since this model is deliberately coded to seek out and destroy warm solutions ... it's thus succeeded damping heating potential just enough to get to it's goal of ruining the day. heh Seriously tho the 12z this morning will be intereseting to see if one collapses toward the other. After all, 72 hours away.