Typhoon Tip

It might be starting to expose what was going on with these late corrections that seemed odd early in the day. That’s when the storm is bombing It’s strange, but it’s like when it bombs hyper contracts in the models

Pretty fascinating, snow growth explosion going on over the monadnocks as that cold east flow’s forced up slope

I just mean models, how the snow gradient almost goes down to a dusting where Brian is It’s probably gonna be OK but it just seems like it’s gonna get further north than that - satellite lies sometimes.

You’re probably gonna have a temperature crash there even if it’s only three or 5°. It’ll be enough to dry it out some… But yeah, you don’t want to have loading in the trees when the wind suddenly picks up, especially if it’s isallobaric because it’ll just accelerate really quick and then that can be a problem.

I tell you that’s one of the most eerie looking IR satellite loops I’ve seen associated with a coastal system There’s gonna have to be a hell of a lot of slantwise defamation in order for all that cold cloud tops to not snow in north of us.

Couple of random bigger lakes, now mixed in with the flipping prisms

Fascinating like they’re a little bit convective, narrow bands, ripping West Northwest

I think some of this north of that main three level green band down there might be a little bit enhanced by the ocean because these echoes seem to be moving west north west while the band down there is slowly inching north up underneath and as it comes north it just overwhelms everything

Pixie dust snow just started here It’s very light, but the sky’s with that glowing butterscotch color It just smells pregnant with snow out there…

I wonder if that non-thunderstorm wind damage/event in SC was related to any kind of sting jet/tropopheric folding...

4-6" in this band alone

It stands for Moist or maybe it's mixed .. Absolute Unstable Layer. It's basically where the WCB splits near the occlusion triple point - the eastern split rides up the warm frontal glide and discipates into the entrance jet regions. The western split is the goodies! It peels back west on the N side of the cyclone cylinder..., rising over the cold wedge that is on the N and NW side of the occluded formation, where it is made to be exceptionally unstable in an elevated layer. This is where it services us with lightning and thunder snow rates, particularly if there is a 300 mb entrance jet fan on the N side of occluded boundary. That gives it a difluence assist and the lift can be insane where MAUL is delivering warm moist air ( into the snow growth region in cold cyclone models). I'll try and draw a picture of this...

oh you guys beat me to it

MAUL popping up on some recent guidance tools. Will and I were anticipating this a couple days ago. It's interesting that it seemed almost less evident yesterday but is here now.

I don't think these models are going to stop until they at once finally succeed in creating the perfect total tropospheric set up with 0 happening.