Typhoon Tip

Suns out in downtown Boston before us. Rock on! The wind on 1K high Worcester air port needs to go SW ... that would tell us there's frontal retreat. Otherwise, even if the sun comes out we'll hang up at 62 bone-in-ass watching it be 80 up to Sturbridge.

Clearing is actively working N-E ...question for me is whether there's a temp burst as that CT runs over as the sun is shining thru. interesting

nice to see that...we'll see how it works out. There's quite a bit of clearing sweeping up across the area at mid and u/a levels according to high res vis loop this hour. As that expands over this sludge it will be interesting to see how the mid April sun goes to war over top. The day glow is also already elevating over the last 10 min here so my est for 11 am might not be so bad.

Satellite isn't exactly arguing you're going to get a better day out of this shit roll

That air mass arrived yesterday afternoon into E-NE zones, and it then got rained into overnight. That left a saturated cold slab that probably only 1000 ft elevation but is harder to mix out because it take more solar energy/thermal input to do it.

Yeah ..I get it. Generally pissy mood this morning. The scrotum arc typical to morning satellite the morning after BDs is already starting to retreat from the W and S, shrinkage - haha. We'll probably bust out at 11 and see a temp jump with wind going SW.

49/BR inside the rectum of a poorly analyzed BD. gorgeous ! Zero air movement tho, so the mechanics of this are weak. It could be overcome but the sun has to be strong

Not an early foliage year around here in general fwiw. Just got lawn/field greening these last 4 days, along with daffodils and violates. Forsythias are out in full, and the Lilac buds splt with infant bouquets and tiny leaves but that's a long way to go. Otherwise, large stems are still post apocalyptic

The warmth getting gypped is down right unfair. Next week's -NAO is a natural progression down wind and time of warm period in late winter and early spring. We're definitely getting that hangover but the shit unfairness is that we're not getting much of a party of this warm up, first.

As opposed to this? I'll take it Blue lines don't matter as much this time of year with that 1E to 36th power fusion bomb in the sky. What could make it worse is if that -NAO is real and pins a rhea wheel here

I can't find climate-specific data regarding the accuracy of modeled -NAO(+NAO) index values, at different time ranges... Then considering seasons? no chance. Good luck trying to find what no one has apparently ever sicced a red-eyed grad student on because it doesn't apparently exist. That said, I'm personally certain that -NAOs modeled beyond D7 have a deplorably bad verification score, where as ...those scheduled to manifest between D3 and 6 ( mid range) are the ones that most often materialize. This -NAO in the guidance since last week is a nice candidate to test Charlie Browning with that particular index, because it's been out there in the extended index prog a lot longer than 7 days. Thing is... I wouldn't be shocked if there is at least some sort of -NAO observed down wind and time of this warm anomaly over the eastern mid latitude continent. That's a correlation actually that I have personally seen. It doesn't say anything to magnitude or west or eastern limb. But warms up --> cools down/-NAO is progression. The 12z Euro is attempting to abandon the -NAO by D8/9 now ...and it reminds of the fragility in modeling that index is all. It could go either way.

CC exerting itself in insidious ways. Like, April 15, backdoor front comes through ... and it cools us back down to above average instead of insanely above average.

It's impressive watching the hi res visible sat loop at how fast the cloud field is moving W-E ...even the CU field, and then to have this BD thing be so wildly decouple from that blithely wobbling west through the state like that.

Hey Scott ...check this out. Remember we were talking about this... Same phenomenon is notable here, where the negatives are nominally compared to the positives, which have this tendency to go out of control. This is HFD on the Prelim at NWS Boston DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 77 45 61 18 4 0 0.12 0.0 0 8.9 18 20 M M 9 27 340 2 45 37 41 -3 24 0 0.70 0.0 0 9.3 13 20 M M 10 1 M M 3 67 37 52 8 13 0 0.02 M 0 8.1 22 200 M M 8 1 27 190 4 70 41 56 11 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.6 23 100 M M 8 29 110 5 54 39 47 2 18 0 0.12 0.0 0 7.0 21 320 M M 10 1 29 340 6 51 32 42 - 3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.9 25 290 M M 6 37 300 7 52 29 41 -5 24 0 T T 0 10.1 25 310 M M 6 5 36 310 8 51 24 38 -8 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 16 190 M M 1 22 200 9 57 28 43 -4 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.5 23 190 M M 3 33 190 10 69 36 53 6 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.8 23 180 M M 5 32 200 11 59 42 51 3 14 0 T 0.0 0 13.6 25 300 M M 4 35 310 12 59 31 45 -3 20 0 T 0.0 0 10.0 22 190 M M 5 30 200 13 80 45 63 15 2 0 T 0.0 0 10.9 24 240 M M 8 33 260 14 86 52 69 20 0 4 0.23 0.0 0 9.5 25 170 M M 7 13 36 180

Not that anyone cares but this backing boundary is through Ayer now... So far, it's been a 5-7 F knock back but it doesn't appear to be aggressive. Seeing a lot of 72's persisting E of here. Won't matter on the day's numbers. We tend to get our high for the day about now anyway. It was 82. Nothing like a +22F climo smash