Typhoon Tip

hm not aware of any teleconnectors for the latter half of November but from 7th to 16th or so, that's not really a cold pattern. The teleconnectors for that earlier time range are indeed -AO/+PNA ...but this is one of those situations where the numerology is lying about the super synoptic aspects, and the actual mean spatial layout. The +PNA is almost all being caused by strong neg anomalies NE of Hawaii...but the flow subtending down stream over the Conus is very zonal... so it's misleading to some degree. As to the -AO...that's suspicious too. The actual orientation of the heights/contouring show an annular structure about the AO domain, but the domain itself happens to have modest positive anomalies. That's the problem with using strictly the geopotential anomalies to compute the orthogonal/eof derivatives, particularly when the heights everywhere are about a coffee break from kicking off the super extinction event heh seriously, it's closer to an annular flow type just happening to be above normal.

Not directed at you Don, just in general.. I wish the scientific ambit would elect to place a "P" on SSW as a suffix, for/if/when an intrusion of warming into the PV/stratospheric pressure coordinates is proven ( crucially ) to be a downward "P"ropagating event. There is a life cycle to the SSW --> -AO, that requires some 20 to 30 days to complete. Whether this is that, or just an intrusion that quickly disappears ... still remains to be seen. This needs to be factored into this "suspected" intrusion event and I'm not reading anywhere, in or outside this social media ... like that is in the gears of reasoning. First of all, the AO is progged currently at CPC to go ~ -.75 SD over this next week. There is no antecedent SSW/propagating downward phenomenon prior to that occurring. Should this 10 mb warm node and any vortex collapse become resonate ( downward radiating through the vortex) .... your looking at the end of November before any AO mode response - when considering the proven total SSW phenology. I just suspect that SSW is being blurred in the proper usage of why Sudden Stratospheric Warming was originally identified. Since there are intrusion events that don't down well, yeah... technically it's a warming in the stratosphere that is/was rather expedient in how it manifested. But semantically... and really machine wise, if you want an SSW to correlate to winter at mid latitude, it has to go thru 20+ day downward evolution, then the -AO happens. And I still don't see that very convincingly modeled in the GFS. What I do see occurring is both aft of present and continuing in the models, a warmer than normal static 70 to 100 hPa level state. I'm willing to hunch pretty heavily that it's CC related... This looks more like a pan-dimensional aspect than an intrusion - aside from the fact that it's emerging from the bottom up. As well, it is/has vastly predated(s) the canonical 'disruption season'.

Just curious ...what did you actually get in that Feb event up your way? Over here - which I consider the western limb of the same sort of "Met district" - we got kind of left out... It was pedestrian here - somewhere around 10" I wanna say. Which is relativistic, haha. I mean, 10" in 1985 would have been a ER visit for a non-terminating orgasm

Hate to tell you ... his/her doing so, mm isn't just a about a bias to see thru a CC lens ( assuming that's the gripe?) He may do that - truth be told ...don't know who we're really talking about haha. Just caught my eye Seriously, the poster may have that bias, but were right to have brought up that empirically true and important comparison. It lacks tact. Yup. During the d-drip of cryo-dystopia that's finally coursing through the veins of the weather-related psychotropic addict ...that's definitely going to come off as a NARCANian insult. LOL However, the truth of his/her aspect is of more importance when taking the longer view ... Probably even saying 'ethical' view is apropos. I sense some times we're preoccupied in social media, for seeking the possibility for big entertaining events, and not really thinking enough about what's going on behind the curtains. - just don't interrupt the show? I don't mean say anyone's immoral but, I'm just taking a stab at denialism straw-man there. The empirical data, and the fucking physical changes being existentially observed around the planet don't allow sanity and denial to exist in the same realm, any longer. But I digress.

Off note/op ed: Relatives currently across southern Michigan are experiencing a Lilac bloom here nearing November ... and the photos/evidence I've seen, these are robust bouquets ... Not a mere floret or two. I began noticed this here in New England beginning ~ 7 years ago, and since it's been sporadic... year to year.. Small bud swells with a few cracked open, a small flower here and there- I've actually even witnessed seasonally dumbfounded bumble bee sniffin' around. Not the bigger bouquets you get in May...but definitely "silently alarming" for climate aware types like myself - and definitely not enough of total population awareness... Nothing like this though, Point being, the phenomenon is increasing in frequency and production - one among a vast compendium of different climate change ramifications that are ongoing. I was just reading about thermokarst phenomenon ... permafrost detachment landslides, and glacial thrust events, all of which have both increased, but at an accelerated occurrence rates over the past 30 years. The shit over in Tibet was civility being in the wrong place in the wrong Millennium when a detachment took place...etc. I know that global climate change is fake and that profligate exploitation of fossil fuels is part of human kind's divine right and provenance of all Earth kingdom come ... has nothing to do with acceleration/adding to it. And that science is fake... But, I guess somewhere between the enormity of whole villages and their occupants being swept away, and the acrid stench of incarcerating poly-aromatic hydrocarbons ...there exists an incredible beauty like bouquet that has no right to exist at this time of year. Feels a bit like a forbidden fruit though ... definitely a guilty pleasure. First cousin can be just too hot to leave alone I suppose...

we need the season defining big cyclone and wind event... we had an autumn like this in 1987 I recall... almost 0 wind thru all of October, then... we had a wind event near Halloween and I remember as the cold front came in there were leaves in the column from cloud base to earth. crazy

what a bummer. Captain Picard died

It's a good approach ... the EOF derivatives are purely numeric ... they are not qualitative in that sense. In this case, the significance of the negative anomaly with that trough near NE of HA is probably lifting the PNA index farther up than the height field down wind is driving it down..

A new phenomenon may be beginning known as 'El namis'

No... 32, is cold. It is not fake. I dunno...getting close to needing to call you a choice word, and walking away. haha my god

This is why you are prone to believing fake news ... Reality is not what you want, or want to accept. It is, and you can decide whether you want to be realistic, or reside in some deluded state. The air temperature is 35, and if that is sensibly considered cold to the observer, it is a cold air mass. End of debate. Whether that air mass then rises to 70 that afternoon or not, doesn't change the fact... if/when that happens, the air mass is then a warm air mass. That's it. there is nothing else.

This is incorrect logic in the empirical sense of reality. For human sensible recognition, when it is 35 it is cold. When it is 95, it is hot. in our example of the desert, the air mass is cold a night, hot during the day. The point that is being missed is that it is the same air mass getting to a cold or hot state. If an air is always hot or always cold, than THAT is THAT air mass. The temperature is a physical representation of the average kinetic motion of the molecules and atoms. It is not fake. It is an empirical measurement of state.

...And AI has all of humanity living in a simulation apparently ... sign of the times, man. sign of the times

Yeah I'm liking this idea myself as of late. The 70 and 100 hPa level anomalies currently observed may be related.

Yeah, I'm not sure it's all that real either... as winter enthusiasts, we would rather not see the cumulative error products for D7 and D10 leads indicating a 2 SD positive busting ..haha.. prooobably's a red flag. It could also correct -