Typhoon Tip

yeah that was mostly one Met talking to another. It's clear outside, with a DPs regionally 10 to 19. We're likely getting quite cold in the lowest levels because of that. That's possibly not being assessed properly wherein the poorly resolved lowest levels that the models can have trouble. It's not a slam dunk for a positive bust, but this strikes me as a potential to end up marginally colder - particularly with the storm structurally evolving and moving underneath our latitude. I'm not sure where you reside but for like Springfield to Ayer ...that band I suspect it safely snow in this... It's really more of a contention as to where the mix line ends up... I think there's room for it to be S of consensus in this case.

agreed here. I discussed this several hours ago ... "The cyclone is going S. I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open. Yet the 850 does closes S of RI. I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late. Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am... we're likely to get decent rad cooling production. We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness. I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance. " add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

did anyone notice how i used a black snowflake there ... ha?

Perfect!

Doesn't he even live right in the middle of that gray na na na-na na rub-it-in region ?

Yep... was just coming in to dial up the d-drip haha

I realize the following comment's likely to catapult me into the top ranked popularity seeding but ... winter sputters in January this year. Possibly early on too. Canonical thaw struggles to reset and then its flower February

I know what you mean ... I don't mean to sound condescending/boomer-ish but, I think that relative to your age they've been less occurring. I remember several in the 1980s and 1990s. They're just not as common anymore - gee wonder why ... They're also no a big deal. If treatment is applied to the walkways and roads they're reduced to a non-story. Problems is, the latter seldom was in time.

flash freeze potential. warms to 35 after a matting of snow and failed icing period, then as the low gets abeam of RI the 32 F isotherm collapses SE abruptly and it's -d(30) F jack knifin' fun and joy on the highways. I'm starting to suspect that the the sfc isn't going above freezing N of a White Plains/HFD/ORH/BED-PSM line tho.

check the NAM for that ... I think the Euro's hinting. Seems to be a CCB feature's being toyed with there. The other aspect that's head scratching a bit. The cyclone is going S. I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth overtop - appears to stay open. Yet the 850 does closes S of RI. I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late. Not enough to call bullcrap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am... we're likely to get decent rad cooling production. We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness. I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance. interesting

Nah... we're getting gypped late, and as is typical ... that is when the models put out a menagerie of bum pump near misses and if-onlys for the entire extended range after the near term shaft...haha.

I'm trying to figure out what Ray's doin' in the same bathroom where Kevin's taking a bath

well heh, not to be a dink but this thing isn't likely to be more than manageable in my eyes, and never was. middling middling middling. it's moving too fast. barely below 995 ... all of it. but i get it that 4" of paste can bring down power lines but that's like climo hassle level stuff

Wondering if there'll be a couple of swaths of blinding snow squalls associated with that arctic front Thursday afternoon.

It's true - ish. And the reason is because the basal velocities around the mid latitudes have risen in recent decade(s). It's just straight up statistically not favored to maintain a 'delicate' total confluent structure to the flow, when the fervency et al is tending to move everything along. I.e, less able to resonate in position. The same thing is happening with teleconnectors, too. The correlations are still there, but mass field biases, negative or positive, break down faster than the statistically favored or related events have time to materialize. This is likely why we keep seeing so many fast field/progressive patterns by behavior. Then we get these torpedo lows slipping along via shortwaves escaping out over the N Atl barely 84 hours from arriving off the Pacific.