Typhoon Tip

I wouldn't trust warmth ... not that you are, just sayn'. Just an example, recall that 77 F two or so weeks back. It looked an awful lot like this 12z Euro run when it was 10 days out, too. It turned out to be one day's worth. Granted, it was a ginormous one day.. The thing with heat in the latter mids/ext ranges, it is about the least dependable anomaly of all them when it comes to early lead and staying power in the guidance. I'd put the infamous D9 Euro coastal bomb ahead of a warm pattern, particularly any lasting more than just an afternoon warm sector. They just get eaten at either end. Tweak the deep layer circulation mode a little and we BD and gobble 30 hours trying to erode it out on the front side...meanwhile, CC continues to instruct a faster than normal balanced geostrophic wind velocity problem which speeds things up 24 hours by the time it gets into short range. There's 2.5 days of your warm up, gone. Maybe not exactly but it's always something around here in the spring. Having said all that, there's a verifying tendency - so far - to revert back to an SPV gyrating around between Hudson Bay and Baffin Island... that's red flag for prick tease warm patterns.

Oh, it sounded at the time like people were comparing dick sizes on which region was dealing with the bigger cold vs heat. I probably didn't get the gist of the conversation right - which I'm not about to scroll back and review. lol. Standard deviation would settle it among scholars

It’s a means to determine which region is experiencing the greatest anomaly It’s the average of the deviation from the norm, which is climatology There is no flaw on that premise

There's scrutinizing data and findings, then there's false-equivalency in the application of information - most that are exposed/have access, do not know what to really do with that information. We live in an era now where commoners with limited or no academic exposure to the course work are being drowned in a tsunamis of information. However... without much or no academic/juried processing, there isn't much actual intelligence (how to reason with it) in how to use it.. Information alone does not make wisdom. Reality lurks in the latter. And it sure as shit does not make one righteous. Some percentage of those using the UHI argument are deniers that look like unbearable ignoramuses whenever they attempt to ply the argument. Some percentage just heard the argument at some point along the way and now sound byte it back at us. Neither of which realizes that CC is based upon a planetary integral that predates the construction of these urban engineering meccas. While no agency of adjudicated climate research either fails understanding, nor disputes that concrete and metal tends to augment temperature... that stuff is accounted for. There is no debate.

Just compare the standard deviations for the cold in Alaska, versus the heat in the southwest Whichever is of greater magnitude wins the debate

I have a small bit of Aspergers for shit like this ...whereby I remember things that are utterly useless haha... But it serves me once in while to see or sense patterns? I sense that you are probably located in a bad geographic circumstance in relation to elevation forcing - because every time you complain in that sort of same vein, it's a similar issue; this image looped shows that's actually trying to clear everywhere but those standing wave patterns are killing you

it's all or nothing and wholly sun dependent ... either it's sunny and 60, or clouds and wet at 37 seems the models are trying for another incremental step out around the 1st of the month. .. 10 days I guess of soothing cat paws to the napes in between fake warm coffee breaks.

It may end up just like today only 10° cold colder

We're just gonna have to get a +3SD ridge with SW flow punching underneath before these models finally, reluctantly stipulate to warming up N-E of the Mason Dixie ... That Euro run's an abomination. 85 in PHL and 35 in BOS and just holds like that for 4 days probably happens

I don't get it with these models sometimes ... why can't they just put up a few days that are like right now? 57, sunny, with just light breeze... You know, spring? wtf It's either got to be 6" of snow and hard nightly freezes, or 85 berzirko warmest ever

Something interesting went on with the NAM overnight. It seems to have been 'swapped out' for a warm result. The FOUS grids in this kind lee side polar air have been struggling to get above +2. Out of no where they are all popped to +6 to +10 in the T1 layer. Today is the Equinox, so if the switch to the summer algorithms is true it's as good a date as any to flip. Man, it is spectacular nape day. 53 full sun zip wind.

It's like 'Chuck NoMorris'

CNN confirms Chuck Morris passing fwiw

As an increasing frequency of observation, I argue that's been occurring less in summers over recent decade(s). There's a plausible reason for it too. I believe there is an emerging resonance feedback ( constructive interference) between the perennial rest state of the flow over the N/A continent, and the CC-related augmentation of heat potential. Combining those to background factors, favors in other words. Longer version: First, the perennial rest state pattern across N/A features a flat ridge tendency in the west that downstream flattens out to an impression of trough in the east, before the flow escapes out into the Atlantic. That means that at all times there is an exertion for ridging in the west, much to the chagrin of the "stop" and "shits" emoji wielding assholes on the forum. It's just that it's not 50/50. It's like a 42/58 thing heh. Second, warm air means higher heights. Now, when where there is heat in the W and SW, that means you have to combine those aspects - such that this results a resonant feedback ( constructive interference) between the fixed background state and the transience of the warm weather's wave function passing through. In short, the feed back enhances itself when that duality super-imposes ( synoptically). And since the back ground fixed exertion is ever leaving, nor is CC going the other way... As an after-note, this lends to the hypothesis that exaggerated ridges are sort of robbing eastern N/A from experiencing these synergistic heat bursts that have been occurring acround the world. Pac NW/June of 2021 ... the few times in NW Europe. Australian. SE Asia springs... etc. Those regions are not as "protected" by N/A built in circumstance of heat deflection. I think this is why NW NE and SE Canada have seen an uptick in the April and early May heat waves...because the DP side of all this hasn't seasonally moved into those regions, such that early heat slips that one mitigating factor, and only has to then overcome the background fixed state. Which the pattern does some times. I mean..this is not an absolute deliminator process at large scales - it's a 60/40 thing. And, by the time we get to mid/late June+ ... the CC -charged footprint teaming up with the background fix state, then adding DPs holding the temps down ... you know, it fits. Because we are contributing our warmth to the total warming pot in night times lows, which in the summer, are highly modulated by the DPs at that end of the diurnal temperature cycle. I think if there's ever a time when that 40 side of the 60/40 ( hypothetical ) delivers a shock and awe heat burst N-E of the Mason Dixie, it will probably be favored to occur in that mid May to mid June window. By July, we'll probably be limited to the 96/75 + upstream continent ozone reflecting particles type heat.

Those are the best kind. Single Supercell CB with nothing around it for 100 miles, carving a canyon 100 miles long