Typhoon Tip

Seeing as you're begging for my opinion in the matter heh I'm on the fence with this ... Firstly, I don't believe these gaudy QPF numbers coming out of a torpedo system coming from the WNW across the barren continent. Too fast; starved source. That said, even a light to moderate burst for 4 to 6 hours puts a snow pack back down. Whether it has the ability to stay longer than the next sunny afternoon, notwithstanding...but it would be primarily white out side for a time. I said yesterday that the period is worthy of being watched. I don't feel any different. There's enough ensemble registry there.

For ice coring that's improved just recently https://phys.org/news/2026-03-ice-core-histories-greenhouse-gases.html

I think he knows that? seems y'all are bickering about relativity. Relative to this time of year ...getting a couple of hours of fair with a little sun when the temp's flirting with 50 or so is a "napey" vibe and is decent relative to the season. You on the other hand have lesser tolerance for that - I actually agree ... in principle. I find most Marches and Aprils a constant bargaining battle, that not only gets old it still gets older. But I also understand where he's coming from. It can be 34.3 F with 1.8" of rain mixed with cat paws, with absolutely zero hope at this time of year.

Ooh, I didn't check the EPS ... Hopefully, they're right

I never stated my confidence level. I'm merely stating what the study indicated. The aspects about taut/tension in the system is pure logic after the fact. Having said that, it is based on elemental sciences like coring deep sediments, where trapped air extracts can be analyzed for atmospheric chemistry/volatiles ..etc, doing so in strata, knowing factually the layers downward are older as rudimentary fact ... this goes on quite a ways. It's clear that for some reason, these aspects of the world and research we live in escapes you for whatever reason. But that all enables a history with high confidence interval - see... you have to know how these things are determined. That might help the knee jerk tendency to doubt. There was a universe that existed, long before we were ever here. That does not mean we out of hand doubt what the universe had/or did.

"desperate" is more like it ...but I know what you meant. It's really funny - all these complex solutions when the simple answer is, stop creating greenhouse gas at a faster rate than the background geological processes of this world can compensate. It's really that simple. Carbon sequestration is probably the best solution I've ever heard/read about. However, ...that doesn't do any good if the sequestration only matches the production at the other side. The sequestering tech would have to somehow gulp in that mass of the Earth's atmosphere, every year. One Earth Atmosphere/yr process rate. Otherwise, even won't cut it. Because what 2023 showed us - most likely - is that the Earth's system may not have caught up with the d(fluxes) of the last century's-worth of Industrial farts. The latter happened too quickly. I read a study that the increase in C02 since 1900 exceeds any increase spanning 430 million years of geological history and reconstruction/analysis, using everything from deep sediment coring to carbon dating. That's what it means - most likely - to taut a system... The 2023 temperature burst? strikes me as some of that tension being released - just a small fraction. If one follows this logically, it begs the question, 'what happens should all that tension release at once?' First would need to prove whether or not the wholesale planetary system has in fact caught up with the "geological event" of liberating 3 billion years of fossil fuel volatility to the environment in just 200 years.. You know, there's argument as to whether we live in the "Anthropocene" epoch - the proposed current era of Earth's history. One can imagine, should the proverbial rubber band snap all at once and the extinction wave flashes over, the mere 800 survivors out of 8 billion will definitely have an opinion in that debate. Anyway, seeding? These are like Road Runner/'ACME' solutions. Unless the compendium of the greater science brain knows every possible quantum consequence of effecting a system, ...not to mention the unpredictable realm beyond the synergistic emergence horizon..., anything that is done at a planetary scale is probably going to result in the greatest Darwin award in history.

If there was zero predictive skill prior to the 2023 entire planetary systemic bounce in temperature by a whole degree C spanning a single month in spring - just 1 example of not really understanding the planetary system, and a whopper - how is it that humanity knows what will result if they start tinkering with seeding? I mean I realize you're likely in part being glib for humor's sake ..but I've heard this elsewhere. I just fail to see the legitimacy of that. Some scientist might have proffered that in jest in some conference ...could have even been sarcastic. Who knows. But then the comment gets extracted and repurposed, out of context, and now all the cartoon watchers - which let's be honest, is the 92.34% of all people and the civility they create - are running with it.

Seems like it's mostly the operational GFS? The Euro and CMC ( though the latter only out to 10 days) appear to be seeded by anti CC moles in the modeling division of their foreign sources. heh but the operational GFS is trying to lift the ambient polar boundary somewhat N. It's not obvious like you said. "sighs". But it's coherent enough. Shit, we're after the Equinox in a coffee break. Eventually, the Euro/CMC are going to lose to the fact the June is still coming. In other words, seasonality gives a nod to the operational GFS.

Yeah, polar lows are interesting

Should freak people out that that’s climatologically six months ahead of schedule - assuming that’s a warm core… oh ha, never mind

People are glomming onto drought because there are no other headlines to make this engagement a dopa hit right now, Scott

well... given another 70 years of unabated CC and maybe that will have become common March practice.

they'll try to use that as another reason to cancel school lol

Yeah...without the EPS supportive at < 108 hours I'm thinking this is just another GFS endless winter sell.

I also believe there's something sort of "non-Markovian" about heat waves. The short definition of what that is, in quantum mechanics, it's when past --> future states appear to fail independence. The return, or rest state of the environment, behaves as though retaining sort of residual preprogramming. It "inherits" the history of the system. Thus, returning to that previous state requires less stimulation, as though the inheritance 'inclines' the system. Heat waves are obviously above the quantum field theory scale/dimension, but... that's the underpinning philosophy for the hypothesis. Some examples, the human body. Heat stroke survivors appear to be statistically more likely to find them selves in that dire physical state again, if/when they are, again, exposed to the kind of heat that puts the body at risk. The temperature during heat waves will rise as the light rises in the predawn of successive mornings, hours prior to the sun tipping over the horizon. It's like the memory in the system somehow makes it more receptive, so much so that merely increasing lumens of the ambient air triggers the rise. I believe this is also perhaps a part of synergistic mathematics - or might be workable there. When we see these synergistic heat bursts that have taken place, world over, with increasing frequency ... it is because the initial conditions also contain heredity in the system that favors each successive attempt ( next days ). If there are no "invisible" negative interference, or worse yet, there less obvious positive interference, the results appear to go crazy.