Typhoon Tip
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I think it's one of those days where satellite is lying everywhere. There's more black than white on vis looping yet I'm getting something like 1/4th sun per hour
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Not to overstep or bypass your statement. It is interesting that the single one year overshot so far. More on that in a moment... For me, the bigger story is that despite that record holding as long as it has, the year-to-year deltas since have in total averaged negative. In fact, an aspect that's been going on for decades prior to 2012 for that matter. Global ice, not just sea ice, began receding around 1850 - altho it's accelerated notably since 2000. So, a rather low bar of intelligence can infer we are at risk of another plummet at any time. However, I think what 2012, and the 2023 (unilateral atmospheric/sea-temperature coupled explosion of thermal imbalance) both implicate is troubling: the global climate system is capable of moving in unpredictable thrusts. Not in a steady, predictable, thus easier to plan and adapt, linear ascent. Even though 2023 seemed to cause a pause, followed by flurry of pimped out memes, there nothing in the climate reconstructions that suggests that wouldn't happen. I mean geological history is not smooth nor a predictable practice. So epistemically it should never be a surprise to anyone. When's the next thrust?
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I realize there's a drought meme popularity right now. It is vying for second place to this other sweeping grand Disclosure stuff, where is apparently going to cause a global 'ontological shock' risking civility meltdown. Yeeeah. We'll see about thaaat. If there's a meltdown it's prooobably not coming from ... whatever that means. But in the meantime, in so far as around here? - absolutely 0 physical manifestation of any problem with water deficit. We go through this every year. Yes, promoted by the U.S. Drought Monitoring, then set forth by their primary sales agent, Kevin's emceeing the desiccation destruction of the world... We read this same sentence every year, though: "We go through this every year" Yet, y'all just can't wait to pack the reception hall again. I guess we're an easy audience - I don't just mean us in this social media. I mean human condition of 2026 and the last 50 or so years of this ongoing socio-technological evolutionary experiment. We've become stimulation junkies for it. But when you look out the window at any moment, that still quiescence, that is what is happening. Everything else is human fabrication. Human actions. Human interactions. Yet this latter has become reality as though reality is unstoppable. 100% of everything that the world presently faces, at macro to individual scales of potential harm or crisis, is 100% human caused. Including, Climate Change. Ironically, a consequence that is largely construed as the lie. Despite being utterly empirically undeniable. This is the dangerous paradox of our times. There's this "right" to flout objective truth. It might even be a defense mechanism. If one cannot believe any of it due to the loss of public faith, they'll turn to what gives them comfort. Basic psychobabble. In either case, we've somehow arrived to a time in history where the freedom and entitlement to believe whatever one wants, givens them a right to deny objective reality. It's bad too... you point out 1+2=2 to commoners at this point, they nod and return to whatever piece of shitness they are. Penetrating truth into anyone's complete nonsense has become almost insurmountable. So they carry on.. litigating in favor of what they want over objective reality, and while not accepting the latter, that is the real harm. This is an elegant self-impost extinction event - one that is probably caused by our own innovation. Well... maybe a some are coming around... But I tell you what, in my aggressive opinion ( LOL ), it is still largely and unanimously denied. Until the ballast of humanity stops doing what it that is causing the problem, to persist means there's too little acceptance. Kind of analogous to an alcoholic bargaining. Bargaining in the context of alcoholism refers to the mental process where individuals admit to a problem with limited intent ... a time in which they continue to engage in addictive behavior. This form of rationalization is a fallacy of control, which is really a psychosis for minimizing its impact. This can lead to a cycle of relapse and worsening symptoms, including psychosis, which can manifest as hallucinations or delusions during heavy drinking or withdrawal. Sound familiar? Like Disclosure I saw the movie yesterday. As science fiction art it was fantastic.
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Our fields are fine... Still with verdant green. In fact, Devens field - where there's ongoing Field Hockey and Soccer tournaments - is still uniform green across the 1/3 mile expanse. Granted it won't last ... and getting rain in timely dosing would also help longevity. But over the years, quite consistent with seasonality the fields and lawns will all but inevitably become stressed - some years less than others, earlier or later, but figure by mid summer as an average. Which we are only 30 days from as the Met crow flies, anyway. I realize there's no super cells, or blinding heat, or what-have-you loading syringes of dystopian dopa for your excitement addiction requirements, but tough. Sometimes you just have to endure nice days. Holy shit -
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Some form of a severe threat, or just some weird anachronistic cyclone for this time of year with a lot of wind Thursday Emerging yet still vague heat signal after the 25th
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89/56
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
Typhoon Tip replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Oh, I think I know what he meant - it just wasn’t at first clear he meant the 3 SD itself -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Typhoon Tip replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
except for those two peaks that are higher -
I'm kinda bustin balls. Truth be told, not sure what the convective temp/sequencing is. We may just need another hour of heating, which can happen at this time of year until 5:30 really. I tell you what, on a separate note high heat a day after severe convection anywhere around here is definitely a Gretta effect -
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boring and hot nothingness chasing ? ooh, make sure to get some videos
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Again ... Brian's sarcasm is well placed and probably needed as a dose of reality, but I contend that the image of the pattern as a skewing force. The constant bombardment of model engagement is tinting perceptions perhaps. As I've been pointing out, there's a bit of a disconnect that's been evolving over particularly the last 20 years, where the pattern and the temperature results seem unmatched. Take next week on the GFSX machine. All SNE sites, BDL-MHT, are between 81 and 84. That's climo resulting from a pattern that looks below normal. Add to that, as we get out to D3..4, those numbers get increasingly weighted by climatology, so... any 84 next Thursday could very well actually be upper 80s... Now we're talking above normal in a below normal looking pattern. But people are only remembering the pattern at the end of the months. This is how perception divorces reality - or at least one way in which the observer is kind of manipulated.
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Yeah, I hear ya. Fact of the matter is...we also have not yet to experienced a synergistic/resonant feed-back heat scenario in this region of continent. They're actually studied in climate as "synergistic heat waves" world over. I may be that we can't. We might just have too many goephysical traits that make that less able to happen here, but like western Europe and Australia, the steppe of the Urals and over in Russia ... Chinese Asia... The Pacific NW in 2020 is an example of that, where carried on for 10 days at some 35+ for high temps.
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Yeah, we did that in March of 2012 pretty sure
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el dependent? KBTV GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/12/2026 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19|SAT CLIMO N/X 64 86| 63 85| 58 75| 55 75| 55 83| 63 77| 60 75| 56 55 76 TMP 71 79| 71 77| 62 69| 61 69| 63 76| 68 71| 64 69| 61 DPT 56 52| 57 60| 51 46| 48 46| 51 53| 58 57| 54 50| 51 CLD CL PC| PC OV| OV OV| PC PC| PC PC| OV OV| OV PC| PC WND 10 10| 11 13| 10 8| 9 10| 9 18| 19 19| 18 13| 10 P12 13 6| 20 74| 55 9| 25 20| 23 25| 39 61| 44 31| 24 32 31 P24 13| 85| 57| 30| 37| 78| 51| 48 Q12 0 0| 0 3| 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 5| | Q24 0| 3| 1| 0| 0| 4| | T12 2 6| 12 37| 19 3| 7 8| 7 9| 17 19| 17 14| 10 T24 | 12 | 44 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 24 | 16
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Indeed... old Sol is doing a decent job at eroding the grunge. Gone partly sunny here and the higher res vis imagery suggests we'll see more sun going forward. Temps 'll likely respond
