Typhoon Tip

there it is ... the Yuletide mando pattern

GFS is doing that thing it was doing on yesterday's 12z re that 10-11-12 period, where it runs a uber powerful wind max/associated negative tilting S/W up SE of NY Bite by perfect climo track, yet has only a weak primary happy pivot low sitting there over SE Ontario spitting out flurries ...some lame squall leaves New England for it all.. okay -

Granted ...this is the GEFs -derived prognostic NAO curve, and the Euro is not a part of that ensemble system ... Still, these compressed/suppressed/buttfucker issues with soring up the bums of storm enthusiasts circumstances are all remarkably well correlated with this indexes negative phase below - much to the chagrin of what people are wired so deeply they cannot seem to get through to their heads Snark aside, the Euro does seem to a conserving the western limb/-NAO suppressive weight longer than this curve below suggests it should. Not sure what the EPS NAO looks like, but it's probably negative when the Va squish is happening would be my guess. Anyway, if the NAO is relaxing, that system might trend N -

I was too busy this morning but god ... christ am I glad that ...everything there is in weather chartage, did not greet my eyes first thing this morning. Ugly .

We talked about this a bit yesterday ...so what, 5 pages ago? anyway, yeah ...most posters involved in that exchange agreed, we merely "suffer" ( depending on subjective perspective ) through a time that is unrepresentative of that longer termed reality. I also want to point out... last year (and I think a couple of other years since 2020 for that matter) Eurasia over into Russia/Asia itself, went through perhaps counter-intuitive excessively cold periods - if memory serves, they tended be front winter when they occurred, but I'll have to look. It is interesting that despite the global this and that, the empirical/realized data shows that both things are true: The world is both warming in total, while seated within ... there is also gasping cold.

Yeah ... ex GF's heart

The 10th/11th doesn't have sturdy legs under it from the indices, but the 8th does. its interesting.. as obviously the intriguing curvatures are hourglassing the flow more so for that latter of the two. It appears the hemisphere is attempting to slip back into a N. Pac favorable pattern after having relaxed for the last 5 days. I'm seeing the WPO is in -delta. The progs from all major ens systems are almost as low as it was 2 to 3 weeks ago. The EPO appears to be completely restructured into a hefty NVA up there and this seen in the spatial layout of the EPS and all of them really, with high coherence. I showed that chart around mid month above... These don't really correlate well with a +PNA at first, and that does nicely ( statistically) explain why the PNA does goes below neutral later next week after Monday's minoring spike. I think this sets the stage for a very cold 10th to Solstice... When the WPO has a modest negative correlation with the PNA, which connotes -WPO eventually subtends to +PNA given time; to some varying degrees of either. -WPO with a alternating EPO and balancing +PNA intervals is fuck it ...no one's following this. look it's going to be a lot colder between the 10th and the 20something than we were led to think this time last week. snowier too follows

CFS with a Solstice yard sticker ... 971 off Block Island with choke snow CCB and 60 mph gusts Who's with me!

I added to that... some for amusement some of thoughts

This is all likely true in this paper ... but it certainly isn't true this year - for now.. I mean, a persistent snow pack, squalls in the air ... and possible refit event 108 or so hours out in models that have others through the 20th ... to mention, a -20 something anomaly plume here on the doorstep, these are all hallmarks of an above normal winter expression. As an aside, I'm reminded ... I thought back in early September this has a shot at a front loaded winter. Not sure this quite yet qualifies... but at the time I said either that, or a quasi one anyway. I just get the feel that it's done in January this year, though. Flower February? I'm sure I just triggered a salvo of responses, either why that's not true posts, are a bunch of truly intellectually inspiring shit emojis ... but we'll let all that and see what happens in due time.

interesting. the 12z EPS has as far as I can tell, completely evacuated the mid month Rosby rollout/warm up. This mean centered on the 17th ( for ex) bears no signature of that any longer

12z GEFs mean has a higher latitude center jump suggested for the 8th. Much better presentation for something in this window comparing to the 00z. 06z interim run did step wise improve so this is a trend. I don't think the operational run is complete garbage - as I've outlined, there's a +PNA burst, albeit minoring but there nonetheless; so there's a background tendency for more amplitude ( correction vectoring - ). ...Not a major by any means -

I was musing ( if not diabolically hoping LOL ) that these would rake through at about 4:49 PM, followed by a 15F temp crash muah hahahahaha

Here you go Weatherwiz .... we were discussing this squall potential earlier in the week ..well, good call I guess. Them be s-squall warning boxes https://radar.weather.gov/station/kenx/standard

Really that's going to be the challenge ... I realize I hit at this aspect a lot and probably it's getting on nerves, I dunno - folks don't seem to acknowledge they understand, or perhaps they don't give a shit. LOL either way ... but the fastness of the basal velocity, is also matched by the fact that embeded S/W are torpedoing at huge speeds relative to planetary climate. We're seeing them enter B.C. and exit the EC of N/A in like 60 hours. It's very physically challenging to get streams to resonate with that circumstantially going on. But that said, it doesn't mean it can't just be enough... or perhaps slow down even ( thus allowing more harmonics), if the non-linear +PNA ( which is in fact bursting in that time range - mentioned this earlier to Southcoast' ) becomes more linearly expressed. This morning ... as I glanced over the overnight largely disappointing cinemas, it occurred to me just how fantastic the overall B-C gradient is over our side of the hemisphere. Perhaps more raw potential explosive power, untapped, than I've ever seen since becoming aware of this shit back in 1990+ ... But there's shot-gun pellet S/W that are all having trouble resonating and are just blasting past one another. We just need the large wave scales to curve more - which they are challenged to do ( again..) because the speed saturation.