Typhoon Tip

It's a warm index period, yet the dailies/oper models cinemas are low balling on that potential. The main reason this takes place is to annoy me... winter enthusiasts don't realize that is happening, they just assume the world is the way it should be. I'm neurotic about that. LOL. I don't like it when the idiosyncratic vagaries of wind and weather patterns placate and even enable one side, in general - cold or hot. But the reality is that index just mean favored regimes. It's a matter of how much or how little. There is variance within those regimes. Anyway, here on Earth... in this case, the pattern is acting like a -NAO without actually having a block. One does eventually formulate up there - as usual, inconsistently in both time and space by the guidance'. But these system running along a pinned polar boundary late next week ( it's a mixy storm signal that's been there for several days actually...), are acting ling the blocking patterns is there whether it is actually manifested or not. That behavior is the non-linearity of forcing. In wave mechanics, fields interact in both linear and non-linearity. The linear is what you see; the non-linear dictates where waves amplify verse damp out, emerge and decay. That's what exposes the non-linear field Another way to think of the non-linear relationship, the PNA in fact is positively correlated to the NAO. SO, -PNA statistically wants to manifest a -NAO... it seems the physics of the models are exposing that relationship, whether it shows up in the linear structures (those that are readily observed).

I'd take that over 24/5 just because it's nicer feeling and living in that... pretty simple. lol

Ineedaninternetcoach is like a happy face troll

I don't disagree here in principle ... but the limitation and problems causing belated response, it's all even simpler than this. It's that people don't step out of the way of warnings... The step out of the way of what is causing them pain. It's biological, alright. May as well throw some irony in there, too. Biology is limiting human response from actually adjusting to the calculus they are capable of making. Such that people deny because they can ... They don't and won't be forced to do anything, unless it hurts. It's that simple. If that sounds really, really stupid? Your right. We are a flawed species. Period. "To err is human", but if we're not careful? no one left to forgive. If CC appealed to any of the 5 senses (and I'd even take the spectrum between emotion to the 6th sense in that manifold of everyday experiences) there would be no debate. Little furthering muse... When the waves of population correction ( to put it nicely) begin to sweep over civilizations... there may even be attempts at blaming it on something else. Because even as it's killing, CC moves so slow compared to the every day experience; the 90% Idiocrasy will still not believe it is so. They'll still fail to connect their shortcomings and observations to cause. I've drafted out this analogy, years ago in this climate sub forum somewhere.. I still think of it. This hearkens to the story of Noah in some ways - I am absolutely not religious, and am not attempting to take this down into that lunacy. But it is still interesting, as the planet warms... and the masses continue to ignore, if not heckle it as a background problem of lesser import, the oceans will rise. Only creeping at first. I'm taking a little sc-fi doom prophecy dystopian license here, fine. However, fact of the matter is, yeah ...the oceans are rising because of CC. Species are perishing. Human adaptiveness will proverbially doggy paddle, but like other people do ...when drowning is on the line, they'll take another man down with them to save themselves. That ending there becomes a metaphor for wars. I guess we're powerless to stop the elegantly obtuse folly of the human finale, so may as well sit back and popcorn and cook the show. Maybe when the aliens happen by this planet in a 1,000 years, they'll see all these monuments to our past - hopefully they'll find, and learn to decode the language of Percy Shelly, "Ozymandias"

It's in the air. When the breeze flattens out in those moments out there leaving that unabated sun un-harrassed there's a nape quality to that. Meanwhile, rivulets it in the gutters. It's trying I'm noticing the the PV is dislodged to the Canadian archipelago side of the NP. So long as that's the case, it's likely to limit how much we recover from that two to three week BN span we just passed through. It's compressing the heights into southern Canada which is a confluence headachy look. Warm fronts might penetrate to Toronto on D8 charts, but we know better. Ha... maybe if we're lucky ... this will be the worst it can be for both sides! yay. No more winter of value. Not warm enough to d-drip the spring enthusiasts. Actually said look might make some nickle dime mixy deals come to pass. So, right now it favors the winter geese in the early gallop polls.

heh... I meant Climate Change ... bored and hoping to start a fight

You know how fresh powdery snow is sometimes referred to Champaign? When at this time of year sun shines on the snow pack and it shards back like that, that should be referred to as "Chardonnay"

CC helping there more so than in CT ?

This is all great info ... I'll just add that it is annoying at time to wonder if the general zeitgeist of denialism hasn't been enabled. If you look at this site, https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ and cursory start going back month after month ... large numbers of them emerge that feature a region of cooler anomaly, either occurring right smack in the midst of one of human society's greatest contributing Industrial anuses ... or, near enough by to wonder if the sensibility was touched. We are not registering the big heat of CC like other places. We've had some memorable heat waves...yeah. But they've been rarer comparative to frequencies elsewhere. Our low temperatures are in particular, more notable in that regards spanning much of the GL/OV/MA/NE/SE Canadian region. That's obviously and intuitively related to WV increases ... but given the perennial circulation modal constraints, as the Pac flow moves across North America's topography, our experience is preordained. Well fuck if I can't make my point... I just happened to check and NASA just finished tabulating the January numbers and there it is again. The festering cold holes collocated with policy making-villes of the world ...and on and on and on we go - I just wonder/feel at times if what is needed is not having these blind the Idiocrasy from sensing the reality. Because this bias might be doping the minds of the general civility. Otherwise, maybe human kind will register the direly needed renaissance in their thinking about this issue

There is actually an ice signal next Thur + ... risk it's tricky how that boundary/where it sets up. Either mean is plausible

That window roughly 180 through 216 hours has huge sensible wx variance risk. GEFs = 60 at some point thru that EPS = ice storm ...at least per 00z means...

Heh Yeah, severe around here. It is an aspect we can do. Just per climo and common experience, it's not as often observed. We all know this... still good to set up expectations ( that'll be ignored the first hash outta SPC the sets up in early May ...) We do just about everything else there is in the spectrum of weather impacts, much easier. Although, big heat is debatable. As an aside, big heat around here is weighted down by an amalgamated pall-blue sky of continental bio-mist, confluent DP sources, and industrial fart ozones. It's amazing we don't have elevated cancer statistics compared to everywhere else, being that this region is akin to the atmosphere's colorectal exit canal for the continent. But as far as sending temperatures very high... in the many years I've lived through summers in SNE, there's always always ...100% of the time, something holding it down some 1 to 5. When dealing with the big numbers in deterministic weather forecasting, ...maybe this has happened and I just don't recall, but I know it is rare to see high predicted to be 100 (in the first place), and have it end up 105... That happens in Iowa, our same latitude, far more often than here. But we'll put up boat loads of 98s. Meh, that has to count as big heat.

Wish folks had more respect for the index methodology - it's correct the vast majority of times...not sure why or if there is reticence to either understand it, or implement ... but Monday was never signaled from that source and I painstakingly applied that logic and analytic content to the discussion over the last week... It's also this group frankly. In the face of presumptive/prohibitive limitation that is there, in place, the model run at hand that defies those mitigations with some cinema gets immediately pimped out. Meanwhile the situation was never changed.. Oh well.

heh... anyone and everyone east of the Hudson suffers this godforsaken spring region. sorry - no special treatment of empathy conferred.

"If I can just get Will to agree with the model that ups the d-drip dosage - "