Typhoon Tip

Heh... that doesn't even look like a climate inference here. It looks like a straight up geophysical response. Like in the model process, the boreal Pacific/seasonality presses up against that colossal heat source between the Date Line and Central N/A. Rather simplistic arithmetically, too. Like two factored: seasonally cooling N + supremely hot S = boom jet. I only mention it cuz of the "C" in C3S. Doesn't that mean 'climate' ? It brings to mind ... I haven't heard much talk about AR phenomenon. "Atmospheric Rivers" are a real thing. Their identity I've recently felt has been over applied and (no pun intended) thus watered down. Like every time California was getting a cut-off low over the lower G of Alaska, sending spoke waves of wind and rain into the west coast we were getting AR headlines and I'm like no - not really. I mean it may be that the definition can apply? But the origination of the Atmospheric River identification of phenomenon was linked to what is called a "Pineapple Express" - from HA, a fire hose sets up... and it's more like a hemispheric event than a local pattern ordeal. 'Sides, those Cali reservoir recovery events were surprisingly during La Ninas. Whole nother weirdness... Anyway, the pummeling California took in 1983 was (apparently) tied to a super Nino of the era; now that was an AR/Pineapple Express. So, the stuff above can be right in principle, but the placement could end up N of that axis just the same. And maybe, just maybe is an early hint

It's either going to peak early ... or, peak in the climo window, which obviously then begs the question over how extreme it'll push - does the early growth implicate a greater amplitude result. It may sort of plateau? Like I wonder if there's a ceiling - in fact, there has to be. There's only so much thermally available in the global system. That is why I suspect a plateauing of sorts might be observed if this rise continues to be absurd so early... We hit a max earlier in the autumn and it levels out..etc. The thermal input into the ENSO warm mode is barrowed from the surrounding planetary system from two sources. The first being additive by solar flux. The second being a complex heredity. These sources can only give so much - and they may in fact be down(up) maxes due to variable ongoing constraints year-to-year. In this situation, the antecedence is definitely providing an impressive warm heritage. What, with the global atmosphere and oceanic ongoing empirical data hovering the curves in top 3 months and months on end, occasionally toeing them in first place along the way. It's like a dad that is 6'9" tall, and a mom that is and unusual-for-female height of 6'1", having a son together - gee, why is our kid 7'1" by 17 years of age. Enter NBA scouts... When the winds turned, the background available source and state is thus so favorable ... it's like an explosive warm ENSO growth. But, that kid isn't going to be taller than Robert Wadlow's GOAT altitude of 8'11.1" at the time he had grown to death basically. Just 22 years of age. Actually, the gentle giant required ankle braces that were specially fabricated by cutting edge early last century prosthetic science ... This caused an abrasion sore that got infected and then he died of sepsis. It's thought that he'd grown so much that his circulatory system was inadequate, lending to the infection fester. Little bit of useless trivia... haha. Can you imagine seeing a human being that is just one foot less than a basket ball rim?

Intuitively it has to be higher. Not intending to condescend but it occurs upon looking at this, the background state is accelerating two-fold: once over for the fact that CC has not been linear over the last 2 to 3 decades, but now especially with the 2nd reason in the onsetting supposed record warm ENSO. ENSOs are correlated with warm global 'spikes' in temperature means. Superimposing these two expectations over one another lends to 'adjusting' an increase in any derivatives that describe that system - a transience certainly being one of those...

You didn't ask me but I suspect the US Drought Monitoring product should be taken with a grain of salt due to the subjective inclusion of personal scientist(s) opinions. The product is a smoothed sort of mean between machine/climate/man Heh, a an afterthought, what the last 20 .. 30 years of overly exposed information has been revealing about humanity is that how we used to think of as stone by the time information became ubiquitously known, is and always was suspect. We can't trust PHDs of science... Judges of the Court ... CEOs? forfuckumgetit! Some are well intended, but even they are human - the rest are giant piles of agenda-guided rectal plaque. It's all made interminably more frustrating because well crafted social media content is also so often completely wrong baseless crap that 90% of civility doesn't possess enough analytic capability to adjudicate ... It's kind of ironic that this being the age of information is really evolved or mutated into the "age of disinformation" The problem with these last decades is that (and probably is a good thing because it never should have been ) it teaches us to distrust both specific people, forces us to ponder how far does that extend to the over-arcing apparatuses of the "institution" too - Now, with "Epsteinian" collusive forces that are (c'mon man, don't be naive) clearly integrating a reality that we are in fact guided sheep, corruption in all forms and colors - opinions are part of that - is now only a incompletely certain to morons. So yeah... we can trust the US DM "a little" more than RFK's MAHA health reforms. Anyway, the drought guide is in part machine, and then modulated by opinions of officers in the subject. This latter aspect in kinder terms leaves it open to debate. But regionally? the farmers know

I think I'd like to see that just because we don't seem to get coastal storms worth a shit nearly as often as yester-decades. The general dearth of ... something, anything really to substantiate and qualitatively argue for even having this hobby has become very challenging. Otherwise? have fun with 4 and half months in dark mud season stern.

On more of a personal note ... if this ensuing "winter" isn't going to deliver - which frankly, having a CC as a launch pad upon which a warm ENSO of this ilk is sky rocketing off of, heh ... ah - good luck. Sounds like a warm synergistic massacre.. Not helping that we've had this upstream active solar disk fire hosing the 150 thru 1 kPa depths over the Pole for the last year. Anyway, I just would rather not have any of it because 4 months on mud as a season, in the dark, is some kind of middle earth dystopian shit. I'm not saying I don't have appreciation ( and hope ) for fantastic winter patterns and consequence. But having a passion and fascination for winter weather events, quite necessarily needs to be fed winter events; it does not include the dreaded 42 F winter. The problem is, it takes a denier at this point to not sense the growing dearth of decent winters. Or at least it seems that way. A stab at an objective opinion here ..., let's see: CC + history-making warm ENSO --> plausible synergistic emergence between those not necessarily meaning cold (duh) + solar-cleansed stratosphere + this ... ...occurring under a lowering boreal heights? Explosive potential. Absolutely! That unfortunately does not include a cold or cryo-profile, necessarily. By and large, the last impressive winter, IMHO, goes all the way back to 2014-2015... and it wasn't actually the whole winter. And, it didn't really involve the larger community? Mainly a SNE/CNE affair. We just had 3 1/2 weeks of utter carnage in those sub-forum regions during February 2015; so overwhelming ... the constituency of these regions think that winter was phenomenal. I think that 3 1/2 weeks was a "planetary storm" - a concept pushed forth by a theoretical Met back in the last Century but damn! that was a great argument for his conjecture. Not sure that was a whole winter, though. I guess in fairness, getting 150 to 300% of normal whole season's snow, amid lung aching cold ... probably should qualify the whole winter? I don't need all that. Just give us a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern. There'll be potential to do more along the way. Maybe one will blockbuster. Otherwise, if I were god, I would make it 60 F with frequent runs at 70, in some sort of freak show scary warm time of it, so that I can continue with outdoor activities and just deal with 16 hours of darkness days. Also, I would look up all my enemies and afflict them with a kitchen renovation project - having been suffering this fuckin thing going on weeks now ... I've seriously gazed out at sunsets while deeply reconsidering life choices.

Northern New England really is the last hold out for unrealized climate change… For down here… even though we’re getting short changed we are still at least acclimated enough to think 44 feels like winter

Ha talk about being white boarded 1

OH I love this product. heh. I've been in my internal monologue for years literally saying the density of the frequency has been ..etc..etc. Weird. It's actually called phase density. Different topic: I find it interesting that it's been biased on the left side like that, and it happens to predate the ENSO by some. I'm wondering if the WWB flux/anomaly quotient is constructively interfering there a bit. In which case, the phasing may actually not reflect as much pure MJO momentum as it does an environmental resonance. I've often stated in the past that the MJO isn't a pattern drive. It's a pattern augmenter. If the wave is in constructive interference the phase diagram balloons ... depending on the basal hemispheric mode/wave numbers at the time the MJO is attempting to emerge out of the Marine continent. In the much broader perspective, when in phase the dispersion into the mid latitudes is in sync with the Pacific orientation that sends N/A into a NW conveyor. To get a sense of if the positive(negative) interference scheme, I look at a combination of the Asia circulation mode together with the WPO index (outlook and recent biases). A -WPO phases constructively with 7-8-1-2 MJO ... then transmitted across the wave train of the Pacific sends a +PNA. I would call such a hemisphere harmonically interfering (constructive). Since the warm ENSO mode significantly correlates with this, that adds. Contrasting, if the MJO is 3-4-5-6, that is a destructive interference (technically a loss of constructive due to geometric placement around the equatorial girdle). But in this latter circumstance ... it is less than clear if the MJO will even factor as the Asia/-WPO can quite obviously at times overwhelm/suppress - it's presence is still there but it's rendered meaningless if the former is dictating policy. This is how constructive vs destructive interfering manifests on the pattern. I've often fantasized about a phase diagram that isn't the scalar wave propagation coherency, but is the Constructive vs Destructive interference. There are times when a robust wave propagation seems not to correlate so well with the N arc of the Pac --> western N/A. The pattern disconnect times may show some proportionality to C or D.

My guess for the remainder of the geriatric summer is formulated purely out of persistence. No heat. The longer persistence goes on seemingly interminably like this, it naturally just becomes difficult for one to imagine things can actually change. Heh. The atmosphere wouldn't stop troughing the GL/NE region if it were an edict from god. But I've seen this kind of stolen summer from New England antic in seasons of lore, before. Usually what happens is summer attempts to come back in the first half of September. So figure faux fall until then, a time in which we'll still somehow managing to be +.5 above climate averages - so technically above normal. Long about Sept 3 or something, whence solar is starved and irrelevant, we'll put up 10 days of non-synergistic +6s. That way, we can look like the rest of the world's CC predicament, but without ever suffering any consequences. That ending aspect really has been protecting N-E of the Mason Dixie and SE Climate for years. Lol. True or not ... it just seems we're a climate dumpster here.

May be a winter hosting unusual anomaly/extremes around the hemisphere - more so than climo. For one, warm ENSOs are notorious for that, anyway, but as qc_omega intimated, with CC underneath I find it difficult to imagine a better arena for synergistic feedback. Huge changeability that ranges between somewhat below normal to outlandishly above normal. Basically a bigger variance gap than usual, repositioned on the warmer side of climate.