powderfreak

Interesting BTV tidbit if Wednesday doesn’t go above freezing… then you start to get into a solid streak. In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was January 22nd; sub-freezing temperature streaks surpassing 21 days are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January- February 2015 and only occurring 20 times going back across the last 141 winter seasons.

Yeah, I like these events that go SW flow ahead of them and then NW flow behind them.... Usually works out decently for the mountains, especially if the low level flow is SSE to begin. I could see a widespread 3-6" from the Adirondacks across BTV and into VT... or maybe 2-5" instead for the lower elevations under 1,500ft and 4-7" above that? Agree with BTV that the GFS is overdoing it and likely the NAM too. More like 0.20 to locally 0.5" in the mtns for QPF instead of that big area of 0.33-0.75"?

Yes, ha, that 3km NAM stuff is useless over the peaks and terrain. I read something once that it's confusing rime icing parameters for actual precipitation but I can't quite wrap my head around it. Because it doesn't *always* do it... there's definitely some variable, like the terrain hits the cloud deck and all the sudden it goes bananas for precip. The only way to really read what its saying is to look at adjacent areas to the mountains. When it gets that super sharp gradient of like 0.2" in Underhill or Stowe and like 1.5"+ over the peak in like 6-12 hours, lol, it's like ok NAM, stop it with the ridgelines. The HRRR seems much better with the terrain around these parts... just the right amount of enhancement... wish we could get whatever precipitation calculation that uses into the 3KM NAM.

-12 in the valley here, at MVL.. radiators mount up locally. -18F at HIE. The vibe was brutal cold this evening. Wind blowing over the ridge, accelerating down the slope and through the east side, in this deep cold.

Back when BTV radiated... they used to put up some impressive lows. -18F at BOS is the most impressive though of those.

Looks like 3-6” potential up this way.

It’s currently around 280” for moving 20-year average…forget the exact number. For example, this season we are at 231” to date up there.

That winter almost ended me. Think we were 55” or so for snowfall and the picnic tables only had 153”. Lowest on record.

-6F… staying well-mixed. Based on ski area temps: 3,600ft… -20F 2,600ft… -14F 1,500ft… -10F 750ft… -6F

100%. Lack of pics for “oh my god” rates… take some photos to remember that shit during the next thaw, lol. That radar through Scooter-ville was nuts.

Love to see it.

Down to 3F in the valley, -10F at picnic tables. Dropping fast now.

Lately we’ve been seeing the light, consistent refreshes. Not gaining depth but maintaining it through low-QPF NW flow. Hopefully we can see a more synoptic density event soon. The fluff doesn’t do much.

Agreed. The model signal is there for a localized area to get lit up. A widespread 1-3” but some town gets 6-8”, or more. 00z NAM likes Essex County.