powderfreak

I’d be surprised if ratios were 12:1… it’s pretty mild tomorrow initially when it moves in. Most spots could get to 34-38F depending on elevation before wet-bulbing… I’m leaning more pasty than 12:1.

If you’re not first, you’re last…

Most models like 0.50” or so for QPF for QPF here, some a tad more. Think we can do 4-7”.

Yeah that doesn’t bode well for anyone. 31/9 and full sun up here. Birds chirping. Feels like spring.

Lake Tahoe hasn’t seen a big storm in a while… signs that the pattern is shuffling after a month+ of consistency.

1-3” for you at 1,000ft. Could see a sharp gradient from hilltop to like 300ft too. Like half inch slush at bottom vs 2.2” paste up at your spot. But man those thermals are tight. I’d toss 10:1 maps far and wide in this… what do the positive snow depth maps look like?

Those are some borderline thermals.

That stripe of like 0.75”+ QPF always seemed wild for the set up. The lower QPF seems to make sense. But part of me was looking forward to seeing what that looked like on radar.

38 ORH 48 HFD Big difference. Love the mesoscale variations.

The snowpack has stayed fresh, in all areas, for weeks on end. The lack of rain has been noteworthy, even up here.

It’s 34F and feels like t-shirt weather. -7.5 on the month for departure during climo minimum… above freezing now feels like a torch.

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11F this evening. These warm above zero evenings are a prelude to coming out of the annual minimum. The gradient has been further south for weeks on end... have to like the Pike region to CNE in this event mid-week. Narrow area of snows, but interesting to see where it ends up. -7.5 departure for the first half of February, the coldest time of year.

Not visually at least during the warm season… but I don’t think we get them. It seems to be a phenomena that occurs in a strong low level flow with a big thermal difference in the lowest 5,000ft. 30F in the valley, 10F up top. Some destabilizing sunshine. They seem rare when it’s completely thick clouds. I think that’s what I think of when I see them… it’s a well-mixed atmosphere.

I just realized that the first half of February has seen the following temperature departures locally… BTV -7.6 MVL -7.5 MPV -7.0 Only one day has been above average so far. This will change going forward, but that’s a well-below normal stretch during coldest climo minimums.