powderfreak

The wolf in CT?

HRRR has been one of the best up here lately with the upslope storms lol. 3km NAM is like 200% too wet. Global models don’t see the terrain that well. HRRR was really good with precip amounts.

Honestly the NWS composite radar might be the best bet. The radar up north is rough with the mountains blocking the low level beam. I need to use like the 2.5 degree tilt for here (level 4 on radar scope) as that’s the first scan that clears the mountains… but then it’s hitting precip like 5,000ft over my head. For folks further away east like Mreaves it’s hitting precip way up and often the beam is overshooting cold season low level precip pretty fast. Often in low level upslope the radar isn’t seeing the Jay area well as the beam is too high by the time the higher angle scans get there. Although this radar image is a bit meh for graphics, it’s actually one of the better coverages you’ll find up here. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KCXX/standard

Yeah its becoming a thing now on the internet and social media. Throwing out 16-24" like candy is essentially saying it snowed 1"/hr for 24 hours straight and while it does happen sometimes, there should be people drowning in snow at those amounts. I mean 40" in 48 hours... I've measured that once here and if you get an honest 40" in 48 hours it is on a level that few can comprehend. It is almost paralyzing. It is not something that just gets tossed out there as a guess. Like cars should be completely gone in the parking lot at a 30-40" storm. And you are right, it is definitely the numbers that get people. Everyone knows it's the most snow, but the number of people who I see posting online that have hit some variety of Bolton Valley, Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay this November... most are saying the amounts seem pretty similar. I'd give Jay about 30% more just based on upslope climo as it moves north. Just like the BV to Smuggs stretch usually sees about 30% more than Sugarbush/MRG. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Bolton was sporting some of the most either given their location and high base elevation like Jay's.

Past event map:

It was, becoming much less by the number of places actually measuring snow.

Jay reported another 16-24" in the past 24 hours and 40" in 48 hours. It just keeps getting wilder. Mansfield measured 16" in the past 48 hours and all-time snow depths.

Expect snowy conditions, ha. Probably a couple feet on the ground up high there.

24-36 hours later and still going.

44" seasonal snowfall measured. 38" of snow depth at the Stake. Not much settling happening out there. This snow is dense, with plenty of dense graupel and smaller flakes, mixed with wind. It has felt like dense sand... QPF-rich frozen precip.

That’s actually good to know. I’ll try on my wife’s iPad later.

I’ve been too busy to ski it today so far but the content coming out of the woods around here is crazy for 11/17. 10” on top of the rain crust and all is good again.

From 6am… Mike Hayes credit.

I hate going down the rabbit hole. I do believe they get more on average, but it’s clear there is zero controllable measurements going on and the report is a “vibe” check. I generally take the lower end of the range as logically acceptable. The upper end could be found drifted in the Face Chutes, but you aren’t finding it at a controlled sheltered measurement plot. And honestly, every single event isn’t a 12” range. Like today, we have 10” at base and 10” at top plots. Their ranges get massive really quickly by adding up to 50% for the summit. I won’t lie, that’s how we used to do it 15 years ago and I know exactly how it works. You know what you have at the bottom, and you just add inches for the top regardless. You find 10”, call it 10-14”. You measure 6”? Call it 6-10”. Just add inches and say that’s what’s at the summit. And it escalates totals REAL fast. That’s the old school Eastern snow report way. Stowe went from like a 333” average to 275-ish average when I started measuring and not basing it on vibe or adding inches “for the summit”… The other thing… it’s fukking snowy out there. If you aren’t measuring or paying attention to time frames, it all blends together. You don’t know what’s new and what’s not. What fell two days ago vs last night. Etc.

In town I’m at like 8” on the season after 4” last night… JSpin’s gotta be double that. Outside my office is a different story, right there at Alex’s elevation.