Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Gfs was nice for us Meh..Maybe the ski folks get some before that next torch Western Atlantic Ridge isn't going to just give up the ghost like that. No way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Euro has something to. Mix to snow it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 I guess torch-snow-torch is better than cold-rain-cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Nice arctic shot on the Euro in clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Meh..Maybe the ski folks get some before that next torch Western Atlantic Ridge isn't going to just give up the ghost like that. No way Where's the Western Atlantic Ridge with this one today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 heh, I don't see a mix to snow scenario on the Euro ... but, that GFS depiction was clear.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Where's the Western Atlantic Ridge with this one today? Or Feb 8th or Feb 22 or on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Where's the Western Atlantic Ridge with this one today?Not built far enough west . What do you think is the reason we roast next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Not built far enough west . What do you think is the reason we roast next week? Next week has more to do with a massive trough digging in the SW (all the way into Mexico) and pumping up SE ridge...it's not really a W ATL ridge going nuts and retrograding or anything. The whole thing progresses eastward as the trough moves out of the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Next week has more to do with a massive trough digging in the SW (all the way into Mexico) and pumping up SE ridge...it's not really a W ATL ridge going nuts and retrograding or anything. The whole thing progresses eastward as the trough moves out of the west. Well this is just a crappy GFS run..but it shows how strong and massive that ridging is. Wolfy asked where it was..It's not ridging in as far west now or those other Feb dates mentioned as it will be next week. To me..It's going to be very difficult to beat that down enough for any substantial snow in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Well this is just a crappy GFS run..but it shows how strong and massive that ridging is. Wolfy asked where it was..It's not ridging in as far west now or those other Feb dates mentioned as it will be next week. To me..It's going to be very difficult to beat that down enough for any substantial snow in SNE I'm not arguing it's tough to get a snow event (it is)...it's just that the ridge isn't a W ATL origin...it is the SE ridge moving off the coast as the trough moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Scooter says mix/snow and Tip says no on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Scooter says mix/snow and Tip says no on the Euro It's 7 days out...it doesn't matter. Looks like it may end as a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Next week has more to do with a massive trough digging in the SW (all the way into Mexico) and pumping up SE ridge...it's not really a W ATL ridge going nuts and retrograding or anything. The whole thing progresses eastward as the trough moves out of the west. Makes sense. Anything can happen this time of the year...from warm to blizzard to everything inbetween. Time will tell. It would be nice to get one more decent hit for all of us in SNE, and then let it be over until next November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 It's 7 days out...it doesn't matter. Looks like it may end as a little snow. well, i was speaking in context of the ggem/gfs blend... in it's own rite it may have something - sure. You know, that type of GFS solution can snow waaaay harder than the synoptics might snap appeal. the overrunning ends up nealry upright beween 800 and 700 mb in that sort of thing and you can get some unusually proficient snow growth from comparatively weaker inflow jets. of course, as you say, way out there in time. it's been the plight of this year unrelenting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Well the euro ensembles are still pretty darn warm next weekend relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Yeah those op runs are out to lunch. Probably goes from 75-80Wed to 60-65 Thurs back to 70 by the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Good, Bring on the warmth, Looks like we may crack 60°F here weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Kevin is locking in 70s this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Scooter is locking in 40's with NE wind screen door slamming shut wx this weekend. Glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Over? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Good, Bring on the warmth, Looks like we may crack 60°F here weds Possibly the warmest day since Christmas Eve. I still can't believe I had a high of 69F on Christmas Eve in northern Vermont, lol. One to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Possibly the warmest day since Christmas Eve. I still can't believe I had a high of 69F on Christmas Eve in northern Vermont, lol. Euro upgrade day 7 snowstorm across VT NH Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Euro upgrade day 7 snowstorm across VT NH Maine I think it has potential...its shown up on all the major models in some fashion over the last 24 hours. Of course my knee jerk reaction is "not this year" but I also like stats and climo says we'll have chances for at least another 5 weeks. Definitely worth watching with those strong highs building in. Sort of reminds me of the set-up in April 2003, which was one of the larger ice storms I ever saw growing up in ALB. Daytime ice accretion of 0.5-0.75" in April. Here's a statement from that storm from the BGM NWS... stationary front draped from west to east across the region (just like some of the model runs are showing) over the course of 24-48 hours with waves of precipitation riding it. Synoptically high pressure building in like that, you can bet there'd be some sneaky low level cold oozing south. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY643 AM EST SAT APR 5 2003...SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM HITS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SYRACUSEAREA...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU...A FRONT WHICH HAS REMAINED STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS HASPRODUCED AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEWYORK. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON SURFACES IN THE REGION RANGE FROM A HALFINCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE CAUSEDNUMEROUS DOWNED POWER LINES AND TREES...AND MADE TRAVELINGTREACHEROUS. ONEIDA...MADISON...AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES HAVE DECLAREDSTATES OF EMERGENCY DUE TO THIS ICE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 That's amazing. Maybe we can get that to happen in SNE while NNE gets deep snows from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 That's amazing. Maybe we can get that to happen in SNE while NNE gets deep snows from it That's pretty much what happened...I'd assume there were some effects in SNE. Will would know, haha. It was a zone of significant icing (enough to have counties declare states of emergencies in eastern and central NY) with significant snow to the north (Rutland got 18"). I remember leaving home to go skiing at Killington, and we left with about 1-2" of sleet on the ground and 0.75" ice on the trees, and by the time we hit GFL to RUT area there was like 16" of snow on the ground. This map is based out of the Albany area, so no idea on validity in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Maybe up in ORH county.. But I don't believe there was any ice south of that. I guess prob Berks/ NW CT probably had some I'd like that sig ice zone here this time like Cuse had. See what you can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Maybe up in ORH county.. But I don't believe there was any ice south of that. I guess prob Berks/ NW CT probably had some I'd like that sig ice zone here this time like Cuse had. See what you can do Yeah obviously that was a widespread like 1-2" QPF event but the set-up is fairly similar...a spring air mass is over the region, and then a building, strengthening high pressure moves in to the north and the cold starts seeping southward. So you get the southward sinking boundary and mixing of seasonal air masses, leading to over-running from the SW flow aloft while flags are facing due south at the surface from the northerly drain. Hopefully we can get it to produce something and its not just a 36F rain at the surface as low level cold oozes in but not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 That's pretty much what happened...I'd assume there were some effects in SNE. Will would know, haha. It was a zone of significant icing (enough to have counties declare states of emergencies in eastern and central NY) with significant snow to the north (Rutland got 18"). I remember leaving home to go skiing at Killington, and we left with about 1-2" of sleet on the ground and 0.75" ice on the trees, and by the time we hit GFL to RUT area there was like 16" of snow on the ground. This map is based out of the Albany area, so no idea on validity in SNE. GYX doesnt have that PNS archived, but they go back to 2002 on their site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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