A-L-E-K Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Josh just posted on twitter: "Main question: what's strongest building in Perula & La Fortuna? We're in unknown territory." Aye, yai, yai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yikes. My sister has a house in Puerto Vallarta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Josh just posted on twitter: "Main question: what's strongest building in Perula & La Fortuna? We're in unknown territory." Aye, yai, yai probably the jail, time to go get arrested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 There's still an 18z flight scheduled for today. Hopefully thr extremely compact neutron star that is the eye will collapse at some point before landfall Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Josh just posted on twitter: "Main question: what's strongest building in Perula & La Fortuna? We're in unknown territory." Aye, yai, yai I understand he's a pro at this type of thing but I've always been afraid for his safety during these really intense ones..especially in areas that aren't as well developed or have less than high building codes. And I'd be lying if i said i wasn't worried about it this time if he manages to be at ground zero. It's bad enough it has 200mph sustained winds but it has gusts up to 215 knots..that's 250mph. There aren't many structures that could survive that anywhere. Wherever he's at, i hope it has a basement but far enough away to not be hit by the storm surge. Not sure of the topography down that way and how prone it is to a storm surge but regardless the surge and wave action is going to be a much bigger deal than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yikes. My sister has a house in Puerto Vallarta. I once saw Puerto Vallarta in a episode of Love Boat. Crazy. In this case the correct choice by Chaser Josh is to abort mission and head north west as fast as possible. Any video or tweets in the midst of this unprecedented beast are not worth the relative risk. Being in the zone of catastrophic destruction will do no good, assuming one survives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I understand he's a pro at this type of thing but I've always been afraid for his safety during these really intense ones..especially in areas that aren't as well developed or have less than high building codes. And I'd be lying if i said i wasn't worried about it this time if he manages to be at ground zero. It's bad enough it has 200mph sustained winds but it has gusts up to 215 knots..that's 250mph. There aren't many structures that could survive that anywhere. Wherever he's at, i hope it has a basement but far enough away to not be hit by the storm surge. Not sure of the topography down that way and how prone it is to a storm surge but regardless the surge and wave action is going to be a much bigger deal than usual. @ExtremeStorms: @iCyclone if nothing changed it would put you about 2 miles from center point #Patrica https://t.co/A3c0skObbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Worthy of the record-breaking intensity Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Worthy of the record-breaking intensity Sent from my SM-G925V Can you send me the link for image source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 On land I am not sure anyone is going to see 200 mph sustained, but I agree it should be an abort regardless as you are talking about EF-4 to EF-5 type of damage essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That pic above is just awe inspiring. Praying for those in the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looking at the NHC's hurricane strength wind field, I would guess this thing was a cat 2, if I didn't know any better. That's some good news at least, especially since the more heavily populated areas are likely getting a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looking at the NHC's hurricane strength wind field, I would guess this thing was a cat 2, if I didn't know any better. That's some good news at least, especially since the more heavily populated areas are likely getting a glancing blow. Could weaken and expand a bit in the event of an ERC attempt, which may actually be a worst case... Thanks for that imagery, btw.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Amazing, looks like the pressure kept falling even after I went to sleep. Te intensity has probably matched WIlma and the Labor day Hurricane now, everyone is a weather weenie today. Also, I think 200mph is an exaggeration, none of the dropsondes were close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looking at the NHC's hurricane strength wind field, I would guess this thing was a cat 2, if I didn't know any better. That's some good news at least, especially since the more heavily populated areas are likely getting a glancing blow. What does wind field have anything to do with intensity, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Still looking incredible. Still five hours till recon begins Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looks like it is making a sharp turn east on the last few frames, hopefully that is a temporary wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just amazing Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Amazing, looks like the pressure kept falling even after I went to sleep. Te intensity has probably matched WIlma and the Labor day Hurricane now, everyone is a weather weenie today. Also, I think 200mph is an exaggeration, none of the dropsondes were close to that. I have to disagree. 880 mb with that small of an eye? Those winds are probably insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 If you look at google maps and street view of Perula....I hope Josh can find something there to be safe if it comes in just north....there does not seem to be anything I would trust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The record for pressure with Tip was 870 right? I mean I guess that's still technically in play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Told him to make a contribution to the local policia. Jail there may be one of the few structures that has any rebar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I have to disagree. 880 mb with that small of an eye? Those winds are probably insane. Peak winds may only be within 5 miles of the eye, but a direct hit at those velocities would be like an EF-5 lasting 30 minutes rather than 30 seconds. Incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 patricia looks stronger than haiyan..https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/p.933279700052622/933279700052622/?type=3&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Perula is a no go. They are checking another town further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 My original expectations for weakening to 130-135 kt before landfall look to go down the drain. Because the cyclone is heading parallel to the shear vectors and is south of the jet entrance region, any increase in vertical shear should not impact the core very much before landfall this afternoon. If anything, the storm may be stronger now than it's ever been, at least in terms of central pressure. The only things that may preclude landfall at 175+ kt are likely the possibility of an ERC and/or frictional effects from land, but the former looks less likely to get much underway before landfall. Plus, given satellite indicators that the movement is just east of due north, this looks to make landfall earlier, as has been mentioned previously. I can't see any reason as to why this won't make landfall as a formidable Category 5 (I'm thinking 150-155 kt, but this could be a bit conservative in the end). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Perula is a no go. They are checking another town further inland. The thing is, will it matter? I looked at the local topography and the problem is elevation increases pretty quick...even though they will be further inland..it means they get into the higher winds right above the surface so it's a wash probably..especially considering how fast this thing is moving. Pretty solid east jog on satellite though so maybe it goes south of where they are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Made a separate thread for iCyclone. I don't want to call it "banter" but figured that chase and his reports deserve its own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.