Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Models all keying on a wave developing along the front..Ensembles keep it east and turn it into a longitude type snow deal..where west would be best, but would change to snow to the coast. Some op runs showing a cutter. Lots of potential with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 A CLASSIC NEGATIVELY-TILTING SETUP INFERRED FROM MODEL CONSENSUS IN WHERE THE LOW UNDERGOES OCCLUSION AS IT STACKS AND THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RETROGRADES W AS IT BOMBS TO AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW VALUE. CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING /AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE CONTINUING TO WOBBLE/. YET CONCERNING OUTCOMES...DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHILE EVALUATING ANALOGS FROM CIPS GUIDANCE THERE ARE SEVERAL THREATS THAT BEAR MONITORING: 1./ HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN / SMALL-STREAM FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WELL FROZEN AND IMPERVIOUS 2./ STRONG-DAMAGING WINDS DURING BOTH APPROACH AND EXIT OF THE SYSTEM 3./ SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF A WINTRY- MIX ALONG THE TRANSITION ZONE COMPRISING OF SLEET / FREEZING RAIN 4./ THERE IS ALSO CONCERN AS TO COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS AS TIDES AROUND THE MONDAY MORNING TIME-FRAME WILL BE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH AT 11.2 FEET. WITH THIS FORECAST OF MODERATE CONFIDENCE...PREFERENCE GIVEN TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF 14.18Z GFS- AND EC-ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH 15.0Z GFS- AND EC-DETERMINISITIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH WPC FORECAST THINKING. THIS MAKES FOR A HUGE MESS WITHIN OUR FORECAST DATABASE WHICH DOES NOT YET BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL THREATS LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE AND POOR RESOLUTION OF SAID GUIDANCE...THAT IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS. AND SADLY NO ONE SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This system will do the dirty work to start the turn to NAO. I'm willing to take one for the team...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This system will do the dirty work to start the turn to NAO. I'm willing to take one for the team...lol. Such a low probability for any significant snow in SNE anyways out of this. We'd need to get extremely lucky with an absolutely perfect phase in a perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Such a low probability for any significant snow in SNE anyways out of this. We'd need to get extremely lucky with an absolutely perfect phase in a perfect spot. Well again..I don't think anyone should be expecting sig. snow..Just a rain turning to heavy wet snow kind of thing where some areas could get 1-3 or 2-4 after it turns..I hope noone is expecting 6+ out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Such a low probability for any significant snow in SNE anyways out of this. We'd need to get extremely lucky with an absolutely perfect phase in a perfect spot. Even then, west is best. Unless the northern energy just gets the f out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well again..I don't think anyone should be expecting sig. snow..Just a rain turning to heavy wet snow kind of thing where some areas could get 1-3 or 2-4 after it turns..I hope noone is expecting 6+ out of this Expecting, no. But MPM to Dendrite could clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It has some potential, Euro is a HV runner, The GGEM a DE Maine Scrape and the GFS sitting between the other two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 At this range I would not go with any particular model 100%, but the Euro seems to have been the most consistent. I would lean that way, but 4-5 days out, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Canadian is even further west that the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Canadian is even further west that the Euro Huh? It looked like a miss to the east that clipped SEMA and DEME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yeah the Canadian was a whiff actually to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well again..I don't think anyone should be expecting sig. snow..Just a rain turning to heavy wet snow kind of thing where some areas could get 1-3 or 2-4 after it turns..I hope noone is expecting 6+ out of this It's still going to take a lot of luck to get 2"+ out of this in SNE. Taconics in NW MA over to SW NH have a bit better shot but this is a tough task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 What the heck was I looking at? Def east... my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well again..I don't think anyone should be expecting sig. snow..Just a rain turning to heavy wet snow kind of thing where some areas could get 1-3 or 2-4 after it turns..I hope noone is expecting 6+ out of this It would seem that significant snow this winter would be in the 2-4" range. Maybe 2 max.? ...of course all is way too early, but there's nothing else on the table so I suppose high hopes for this event are better than no hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It has some potential, Euro is a HV runner, The GGEM a DE Maine Scrape and the GFS sitting between the other two and the Euro Ens are friendlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This could be nothing easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 What is the map source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 This could be nothing easilyDont agree. This has decent shot at dropping snow to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 and the Euro Ens are friendlier. Yes they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Dont agree. This has decent shot at dropping snow to the coast It really doesn't though. Its going to take perfect timing and phase to get snow in most of the area. This has a lot of things working against it, and even a more favorable track may not produce all that much snow. I just want this storm to move along so we can have a shot at the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS looks wet with maybe a shot of snow in the end across the Berks? I see nothing close to exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The biggest problem with snow in this event is there is so little qpf on the cold side...you really need to get up into Maine...maybe the White Mts of NH could do ok too. If we get much more wrapped up mid-level low, those are the solutions that give SLK good snows...so it's kind of a catch 22. We would need the base of the trough to swing way out to the east and then go crazy ripping the storm back NW for us to get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Timing is huge for obvious reasons. Don't want a cold steady rain during the Pats game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 It really doesn't though. Its going to take perfect timing and phase to get snow in most of the area. This has a lot of things working against it, and even a more favorable track may not produce all that much snow. I just want this storm to move along so we can have a shot at the clipper The clipper is gone. That's why you've seen none talking about it. This is the one to watch as it develops south of us..H5 digs and it starts as cold rain and ends as snow ..with the most snow being west.. An evolution like 18z GFS yesterday is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The biggest problem with snow in this event is there is so little qpf on the cold side...you really need to get up into Maine...maybe the White Mts of NH could do ok too. If we get much more wrapped up mid-level low, those are the solutions that give SLK good snows...so it's kind of a catch 22. We would need the base of the trough to swing way out to the east and then go crazy ripping the storm back NW for us to get anything. Exactly. No good mid level low to get the conveyor belt going and BL is torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS looks wet with maybe a shot of snow in the end across the Berks? I see nothing close to exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The clipper is gone. That's why you've seen none talking about it. This is the one to watch as it develops south of us..H5 digs and it starts as cold rain and ends as snow ..with the most snow being west.. An evolution like 18z GFS yesterday is certainly possible. Incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Incorrect. You don't like it because you don't like longitude storms for obvious reasons. To simply write this off when any solution is still on the table and say noone in SNE is getting snow is foolish at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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