eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The models seem to do that a lot. I'm still not sold on this storm. The meso models are hard to fully ignore. I agree I am not sold either at this point. The only thing I can say is the air tonight has the right feel with the veiled moon but not sure that is very meaningful beyond an anecdote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If it's any consolation to the higher snowfall models, the air outside (in the NEK at least) is thick, as in, snowstorm thick. I've been in plenty of situations where we have smoked cirrus or only gotten the fringe 2-4" but the thickness of the air right now would suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 BTV's new map bumps totals up again. Thanks, I hadn't seen that map because my computer seemed to have cached the previous one. In any event, this newest map is the most robust the BTV NWS has put out for the storm so far in this area. Our forecast now is in the 6-10" range, although as noted, there haven’t been any changes in the advisory level here. I've been watching The Weather Channel (impressive how many people they have out live in the field), and they've definitely been talking about how the projections for NYC snowfall have been going downward on some of the high-resolution models on the western periphery of the storm. With all the hype as of a day or two ago, I wouldn’t have thought the forecast here would ever be in the same range as down there, but we'll still need to see what actually happens – the high-res data they showed that forecast lower totals in NYC also seemed to suggest lower totals up in this area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Any chance the EURO is overdoing it on the artic blast next week, I have a 5yr old who isn't gonna last long in sub zero highs in NNE. I believe it is on to something and that it will get quite cold but as to the extent the run will verify verbatim I can't say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i don't know how to post the image, but it looks like GYX updated their snow map in the last couple of hours. the 18-24" range drifted north a bit for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i don't know how to post the image, but it looks like GYX updated their snow map in the last couple of hours. the 18-24" range drifted north a bit for someYep, saw that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grambo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's hard to have a grasp on what will happen in far NW VT at this point (2-5" or 6-8"?) but comparatively to the rest of NE I think it's fair to say this... ZZzzz.... Pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Here is my forecast for all those who have been asking for it. Me 10" Brian 11.9" Gene 7" whiny lava guy 14" Powderfreak 5" mreaves 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Here is my forecast for all those who have been asking for it. Me 10" Brian 11.9" Gene 7" whiny lava guy 14" Powderfreak 5" mreaves 6" Wrong. I'd inflate that b**ch to 12.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thanks eek We'll see. I will say 11" for me wall of snow is getting close and its cold so lots of fluff factor. Heading to bed Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Here is my forecast for all those who have been asking for it. Me 10" Brian 11.9" Gene 7" whiny lava guy 14" Powderfreak 5" mreaves 6" Whoo hoo! VT jackpot! Ok, north central VT jackpot. Actually I would be very happy with 6". A nice addition to a decent, if not tremendous, snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thought it would be snowing by now. Looks like eastward shift and nws saying reduced totals. Kinda blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thought it would be snowing by now. Looks like eastward shift and nws saying reduced totals. Kinda blows Could be worse, you could be in BTV. They may not see a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Those yellow pixels are never going to visit me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Could be worse, you could be in BTV. They may not see a flake.This was never our storm. I feel bad for those forecast to get 14-18"+ who may get half or less of that.I guess the good part is when we get shafted it usually doesn't pour rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 this snow has the texture of flour... it looks like fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The storm is east so I think we will end up nearly blanked here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 LOL, I'm not even very sold for here let alone further west into VT. All the schools around here are closed for the day. At least it will be an easy ride into work. Just a few tiny flakes flying around out there. Dry air winning? My brother down in Exeter, NH and cousins in Chester & Kingston, NH should have a fun day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 LOL, I'm not even very sold for here let alone further west into VT. All the schools around here are closed for the day. At least it will be an easy ride into work. Just a few tiny flakes flying around out there. Dry air winning? My brother down in Exeter, NH and cousins in Chester & Kingston, NH should have a fun day though. The storm is simply farther east. Epic bust in order for NYC and the Euro. Some other models along with "looking out the window" last night should have been a hint I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The storm is simply farther east. Epic bust in order for NYC and the Euro. Some other models along with "looking out the window" last night should have been a hint I guess. Yeah, when I saw the fuzzy moon last night as late as I did, I said "hmmmm...." Anyhow, we'll see how the day goes today--but yeah, you folks in the Champ Valley probably won't see much, if anything at all. Maybe we can squeak out a few inches here in the east slope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 getting some window rattling gusts now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah, when I saw the fuzzy moon last night as late as I did, I said "hmmmm...." Anyhow, we'll see how the day goes today--but yeah, you folks in the Champ Valley probably won't see much, if anything at all. Maybe we can squeak out a few inches here in the east slope... I expect little more than a flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I expect little more than a flizzard. Just remember we've had some snow events this season where literally 80% of New England was pouring rain...at least in busts like this it doesn't damage the snowpack with pouring rain like it sometimes does for the far eastern folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Might as well go to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Just remember we've had some snow events this season where literally 80% of New England was pouring rain...at least in busts like this it doesn't damage the snowpack with pouring rain like it sometimes does for the far eastern folks. That is very true and no meltdown here on this. Moving on to the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeepowderhunter Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Clipper and this weekend look interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Might as well go to workOK, never mind. It's pretty bad out there. When's the next snowfall map due out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This was never our storm. I feel bad for those forecast to get 14-18"+ who may get half or less of that. I guess the good part is when we get shafted it usually doesn't pour rain. As the NWS wrote this AM: OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES. Anytime a model goes against an "old rule of thumb" we really should take notice. Old rules die hard. Turning my attention to friday....that looks a lot better. Underhyped, quiet, clipper. Classic 5-7" along the spine. Ho-hum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This was never our storm. I feel bad for those forecast to get 14-18"+ who may get half or less of that. I guess the good part is when we get shafted it usually doesn't pour rain. Ok then I must get a special booby prize. Forecast for 2 feet in the hudson valley and got a grand total of 2 inches. Maybe. Epic epic bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Just got into work in Hanover, NH, about 25 miles SE of the homestead. There's a solid fresh inch here and steady light snow falling atm. At the house though, only a trace had fallen with just a few stray flakes drifting around in the breeze. Took the plow off the truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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