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Tuesday night mixed bag


Ginx snewx

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Models showing decent overrunning with snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain event. 0Z runs have beefed up qpf slightly and also cooled the surface due to a strong CAD signal. Interior areas have the best shot of hanging on to snow longer with the 7 h warming slower to advance however surface temps and the lower atmosphere support a sleet profile when the flip occurs. It appears slippery conditions will impact traveling Tuesday into Wed.

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I think betwen PHL and BWI may be the best corridor to be in for this event since these overrunning events often are best right near the base of the high pressure system but I think we could see surprising snow or mixed precip totals all the way up into western SNE.  I think models may continue to become increasingly ominous on this, they always miss these events it seems or do not forecast them well beyond 2-3 days.  I posted on the NYC forum this reminds me of the event where PHL got hit with the 6 or 8 inches in a few hours either last year or in 2012

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I think betwen PHL and BWI may be the best corridor to be in for this event since these overrunning events often are best right near the base of the high pressure system but I think we could see surprising snow or mixed precip totals all the way up into western SNE. I think models may continue to become increasingly ominous on this, they always miss these events it seems or do not forecast them well beyond 2-3 days. I posted on the NYC forum this reminds me of the event where PHL got hit with the 6 or 8 inches in a few hours either last year or in 2012

RGEM seems to be trending that way for sure

I_nw_r1_EST_2014120100_048.png

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Regardless, you'll be in the 40s and not for just 10 min either. This is not a setup where you stay in the 30s.

 post-frontal DSD lasts like 12-15 hours on this one...it's always uglier when the winds go SW behind the front, lol.

 

Euro looked good for 1-2" though.

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1-2 for most of the interior. Trace or coating closer to the shore. Spot 3 north of the Pike and west of Worcester. Cold air will hold longest in the CT Valley, paticularly north of the PIke where temps may stay in the MU 30's most of the day and light icing is possible for the morning commute down to about the CT line in the valley or slightly south.

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2 days ago you were only expecting rain. Now it's trended colder and snowier. That's a win in anyones book

I wasn't really following this closely. I was more interested in the end of week potential but only because it still had thread the needle potential. It isn't looking very promising either but still has some time before writing off.
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12z suite so far trending this into a NNE event with potential for a few inches up there, really the only outlier that still brings decent(more than 1") snows to SNE is the EURO, which is comparing an 0z model compared to the 12z suite, always a dangerous proposition. Would think the EURO goes towards the other guidance in a little while. 

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