Storm chaser Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 And the Euro is the Buzzkill once again..what is the Euro seeing/doing differently than the other models ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hr 114 heavy snow nw of I95 and probably even nyc. Surface is TTN and south of LI. 850 0C line cuts through NYC and LI sound Mod sleet for LI and CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Temps crash hr 120.. mod snow for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Considering the euro has been spot on this season and consistent with this storm solution the last few runs I would say hug the euro, throw the GFS, once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It definitely went a bit warmer based on what I'm seeing. Somewhat surprising. Looks a little colder to me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Considering the euro has been spot on this season and consistent with this storm solution the last few runs I would say hug the euro, throw the GFS, once again. Euro has been spot on this season??? News to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Considering the euro has been spot on this season and consistent with this storm solution the last few runs I would say hug the euro, throw the GFS, once again.This was you being facetious, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Considering the euro has been spot on this season and consistent with this storm solution the last few runs I would say hug the euro, throw the GFS, once again. Spot on this season? Not even close. It was the only model that kept saying we were gonna get a moderate snowstorm today (Wednesday), a huge blunder. Euro has not been great at all this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Considering the euro has been spot on this season and consistent with this storm solution the last few runs I would say hug the euro, throw the GFS, once again. Spot on this season? No...consistent with this storm? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The EURO has been crap lately and I wouldn't use it for temps this far out. We should be have digging out from 4-8" today that the EURO showed for today. Some people have short memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Considering the euro has been spot on this season and consistent with this storm solution the last few runs I would say hug the euro, throw the GFS, once again. Nothing has been spot this year. But I hate going against the Euro. It hasn't been great by any means though. I'm going with the Euro Ens and gefs in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks a little colder to me lol. Yeah, it turned around at hour 96 or 102 I think to yield a slightly colder solution. QPF is more substantial, so it may have been a case of stronger WAA leading to higher temps at the onset, which were quickly compensated for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 K. thx . Just a bit nervous abouy this run Nervous? lol, it's only a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So it sounds like Euro still gives NYC a good amount of snow after the rain/sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yeah, it turned around at hour 96 or 102 I think to yield a slightly colder solution. QPF is more substantial, so it may have been a case of stronger WAA leading to higher temps at the onset, which were quickly compensated for. Nice 0z suite. The PV being more consolidated helped push this further south. The PV is still further north on the Euro than the other models. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So the euro final outcome was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It came in colder than previous run, dumping 6-10" on NYC at least. It was a good 00z suite for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro was better than the 12z run. 6-12 inches for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The Euro has 6 plus inches at KNYC thru CNJ I don`t buy the 10 you see on the WB maps from this solution , remember it counts Sleet .( but that's a great improvement from 12 hours earlier ) . But the amount does not matter because at 12z there was only 2 inches thru CNJ into KNYC . ' The last 3 runs of the Euro 0z Yesterday - had temps in the teens on Monday with a widespread snow 12z Yesterday - had KNYC close to 40 while most of the precip fell , then crashed temps at 132 and the snow maps showed 2 0z today is 6 plus ( the other stuff it adds is suspect ) . So the Euro is having a problem with the strength of the SW and the depth of the confluence . The OP is all over the place . Take away the GFS and the Canadian are continuing to advertise a wider spread winter storm and the Euro has ticked towards their camp this morning . Don't take 1 OP run as gospel , lets see the Euro settle down before we run with it`s numbers . The GFS and GGEM have been steady , as long as we don`t lose them, I think the Euro may be headed in their direction . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 UPTON is getting concerned: from upton...MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM WHICH SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH ITS SURFACE LOW...AND ALSO TOWARDS A COLDER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE CMC AND GFS. THERE IS NOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER CMC/GFS SOLUTIONS. ALSO...GIVEN THAT THE STORM IS 4-5 DAYS AWAY...HAVE KEPT P-TYPES SIMPLE - RAIN...SNOW...OR RAIN AND SNOW AS TOO MUCH COULD CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN COULD COME INTO PLAY. NOTING THAT THE ECMWF IS PLAYING CATCH UP TO THE GFS AND CMC WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE NE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AT THE START...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY AS ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A MIX WITH RAIN RIGHT AS IT STARTS SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE S FORK OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT. IF THERE WHERE TO BE ANY MIXING IN OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW FAR N THE LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE GETS. EVEN WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH AND LOW...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS STORM. AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6 GFS holds fairly rock steady with nearly 10" plus for all of PA, 2/3 of NJ and NYC/LI. Parts of PA well over a foot... Since it lost the caboose wave yesterday AM, it's solutions have looked very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 06z gfs actually looks considerably colder than 0z, and it would drop us into the teens and lower 20s during the storm, this PV and arctic push is no joke. Almost looks like one of those arctic waves we've seen earlier this season and could suggest high ratio snows believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 06z gfs actually looks considerably colder than 0z, and it would drop us into the teens and lower 20s during the storm, this PV and arctic push is no joke. Almost looks like one of those arctic waves we've seen earlier this season and could suggest high ratio snows believe it or not. yea and looks like there will be little winds as well so dare I say maybe some ratios of 12:1 or better with temps in the teens/lower 20's during the heaviest stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 yea and looks like there will be little winds as well so dare I say maybe some ratios of 12:1 or better with temps in the teens/lower 20's during the heaviest stuff? The ratios are around 12:1 to 15:1 on this run. Basically 0.8" of liquid = 12-14" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 0z euro colder, 6z gfs MUCH colder...looks mainly snowy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Cobb Method Snowfall for the last two GFS runs is about 8" (for NYC) SNOW, with no rain indicated. 06Z was indeed colder at surface. I want to also note that low temps. are forecast on this same output in post storm timeframe 3/4--9degs., 3/5--2degs., 3/6--10degs. We will have to see about that! 2degs. would be lowest ever for March @CPK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6z NAM was also GFS-ish, as was DGEX. I think we may see a colder jump at 12z. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 we dont even know what the precip type will be - I think the ratio talk is VERY premature... lets lock in p-type and then go from there... i understand that you guys are just speaking verbatim, but I think we all know this is way too early to be discussing it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6z NAM was also GFS-ish, as was DGEX. I think we may see a colder jump at 12z. Just a hunch.We will see lots of jumps on the NAM. Waaaaaay out of its range still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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