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2/13/2014 Major Coastal Storm Observations


Rtd208

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Anybody out there nervous about the radar right now, I hate to say it but it's atrocious heavier returns collapsing south already .... What's going on? Don't hate, just asking.

It has collapsed south some but there's a very heavy band in south Jersey steadily moving north that should be here within the next few hours.

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right now it's a race between the coastal front nearing the south shore of LI and that massive area of S+ heading toward the area. My temp is up 3 in the last 90 minutes and sitting at 31. The rain / snow line is 20 miles offshore and crawling steadily NNW. Either we start mixing around 5 or 6am or that front hits a brick wall Back in Dec 2003 we had the coastal front stall about 10 miles offshore and we saw 2-3"/hr rates for a while. As the old saying goes "sometimes you have to smell the rain in order to see the best snows.

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right now it's a race between the coastal front nearing the south shore of LI and that massive area of S+ heading toward the area. My temp is up 3 in the last 90 minutes and sitting at 31. The rain / snow line is 20 miles offshore and crawling steadily NNW. Either we start mixing around 5 or 6am or that front hits a brick wall Back in Dec 2003 we had the coastal front stall about 10 miles offshore and we saw 2-3"/hr rates for a while. As the old saying goes "sometimes you have to smell the rain in order to see the best snows.

 

 

Damn, I am at 20 degrees (north central NJ) and getting powdery fine snow with probably 1.5  inches so far.

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Based on the EURO/short-range models, is it feasible to say NYC Metro gets 10-12 inches front end, 2-4+ back end? Like Dsnowx53 stated, once the heavy precip gets going, the entire column will draw down the cold air it needs. This should be established at this point with the eastern route the storm is taking. I admit it does raise some hairs till it actually starts to happen.

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Currently 34 degrees. Central LI. Snow refusing to accumulate, been sitting at .1" dusting for the past 2.5 hrs. Might take a lot longer for the heavy snow to move in. Should have been cranking between 3 and 7, not looking good. Already 3 inches behind forecast,

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Got my new weather station set up in time & it has slowly measured the temp spike from 25.7 2 hours ago to 28.1 between JFK and LGA at 3:22 am. the S+ is coming within the hour so IM realistic & no jumping off skyscrapers for me. radar backs up mos tmdels .5 am is magic mark. so relax & enjoy.

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Radar is moving further north. Most of the heavy stuff is not progged to be in the area until 5 AM, at the earliest. I'm willing to bet that CNJ will be in it within an hour, followed by NYC by 5:30. Things are going just fine. Haven't been outside in over an hour but I'm willing to guess it's near an inch and a half here in fords

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Radar is moving further north. Most of the heavy stuff is not progged to be in the area until 5 AM, at the earliest. I'm willing to bet that CNJ will be in it within an hour, followed by NYC by 5:30. Things are going just fine. Haven't been outside in over an hour but I'm willing to guess it's near an inch and a half here in fords

 

exactamundo. things are looking on track imo and the radar is picking up speed as it heads north with the better lifting

 

6z NAM showing 1.5 qpf through much of NJ, with a blob of 1.75 over NYC into CT

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Radar is moving further north. Most of the heavy stuff is not progged to be in the area until 5 AM, at the earliest. I'm willing to bet that CNJ will be in it within an hour, followed by NYC by 5:30. Things are going just fine. Haven't been outside in over an hour but I'm willing to guess it's near an inch and a half here in fords

Between 9-1 parts of the area can see 6-8 inches alone... if the Guidance is correct.

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exactamundo. things are looking on track imo and the radar is picking up speed as it heads north with the better lifting

 

6z NAM showing 1.5 qpf through much of NJ, with a blob of 1.75 over NYC into CT

Much of Long Island is above freezing now, this wasn't supposed to happen until after the front end thump

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