Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 When we have the snow down here it is going to all depend on what kind of bands set up and how long you're under them. That's going to be key. If we see a switch over to sleet say 2 or 3 hours in Wed. then there will be some tears shed by many of this board. Been there... couple of our snow events during 09-10 and 10-11 killed our totals. Really hope we keep the sleet at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 During the last storm I was in the 8inch range but it was mainly sleet with 2 inches of snow. Its also not going to be as cold after the storm so no rapid freeze will take place. In 2011 we had 4 inches of snow with a glaze of ice and it melted in no time. As the last storm the ice was on bottom and it hung around a couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here is my video update on the potential winter storm... I believe this will be a very big storm for a lot of people, and thus I have higher than average accumulations (My first call map is in the video towards the end). Towards the eastern part of NC, I believe the accumulations may be too low; however, I do not know how much ice will mix into the system. The 0z runs of the models, I suspect, may increase the precipitation and moisture with this system more towards my ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here is my video update on the potential winter storm... I believe this will be a very big storm for a lot of people, and thus I have higher than average accumulations (My first call map is in the video towards the end). Towards the eastern part of NC, I believe the accumulations may be too low; however, I do not know how much ice will mix into the system. The 0z runs of the models, I suspect, may increase the precipitation and moisture with this system more towards my ideas. Great Video thanks for posting! Hope it works out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Saw this on twitter...max + change in snowfall with the new (15z) SREF...may be sniffing out a trend. Wright-Weather.com @Wright_Weather 11m Here is the SREF positive change snowfall map from 9Z to 15Z. Wright-Weather.com @Wright_Weather 13m 15Z SREF had a HUGE positive change in snowfall across the Upstate of SC and much of NC. Look for the 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well folks, the NWS out of GSP couldn't sound any sweeter tonight for Snow lovers in the Upstate. They have snow beginning Monday night with up to an inch possible and Snow likely on Tuesday with moderate accumulations possible and moderate accumulations possible Tuesday night. Wednesday - Snow likely. The winter weather event will continue or intensify with heavy Snow accumulations. Wednesday night - additional light accumulations possible. .I can't stop listening to it.........it's been a long time. Hope we all get a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So for hky would that be 2.5 inches of snow..... Or 2 inches qpf??? Saw this on twitter...max + change in snowfall with the new (15z) SREF...may be sniffing out a trend. Wright-Weather.com @Wright_Weather 11m Here is the SREF positive change snowfall map from 9Z to 15Z. Wright-Weather.com @Wright_Weather 13m 15Z SREF had a HUGE positive change in snowfall across the Upstate of SC and much of NC. Look for the 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 When we have the snow down here it is going to all depend on what kind of bands set up and how long you're under them. That's going to be key. If we see a switch over to sleet say 2 or 3 hours in Wed. then there will be some tears shed by many of this board.Honestly, as long as it's precipitating and the precip is frozen, I'll be happy. It all packs down to the same thing anyway. What I don't want is ZR or rain, or dry while the radar is lit up over RWI or CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 21z just updated, looks good.Ok that's what I thought?! Haha thought I was going nuts. 21z already better has 1/2" contour extending from ROA up to Atlantic City and down all the way into MS. 1" contour is from Winston Salem and point south and east just rough ball parking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So it appears hpc isn't buying the north runs of the models? Did I read that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So for hky would that be 2.5 inches of snow..... Or 2 inches qpf???That map is the change in accumulated snowfall from one run to the next. The actual totals aren't on that map, and if they were, it'd be in inches of snow, not liquid equivalent, even then, it would be with 10:1 ratio, which is not likely to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So for hky would that be 2.5 inches of snow..... Or 2 inches qpf??? 2.5" snow, it's a trend map so the 15Z SREF has +2.5" snow more than the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 i noticed the roads have already been treated here in morrisville/cary area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This little tidbit from the WPC post Lookout posted is huge IMO, seems WPC is not sold on a coastal low hugging the coast up to the NE, this would be better for NC as it would keep the low offshore and moving ENE thus preventing that warm nose......however folks from Richmond to DC might not be to happy to read this. THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE 12ZECMWF/UKMET/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT HAVE LOWER PROBABILITIES...DUE IN PART TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGHFORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So for hky would that be 2.5 inches of snow..... Or 2 inches qpf??? delta prog over delta T, rate of change over a 6 hour period for the mean, measured in inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So it appears hpc isn't buying the north runs of the models? Did I read that right?That's what I read too. I mean they know way more than I do but there going with more of a GFS solution? Really? It obv is suffering thru some sort of conv feedback issues and it has been slowly trending toward the other bomb solutions. If the high is retreating it would make sense for it to be able to begin its trek a little more northward then a couple days ago no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Latest SREF drier with the first wave but much wetter than the 15z run with the second. Looks like it's a little warm for anyone east of say Shelby though and would be a raging sleet storm. It does look like good snows wrapping around the back, but it's a mean so you know the usual caveats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's what I read too. I mean they know way more than I do but there going with more of a GFS solution? Really? It obv is suffering thru some sort of conv feedback issues and it has been slowly trending toward the other bomb solutions. If the high is retreating it would make sense for it to be able to begin its trek a little more northward then a couple days ago no? I think the WPC thinks the Euro and CMC retreat the high to fast maybe and are to weak with it? They seem pretty strong with the wording that they think the Euro/CMC coastal hugging bomb being the least likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Latest SREF drier with the first wave but much wetter than the 15z run with the second. Looks like it's a little warm for anyone east of say Shelby though and would be a raging sleet storm. It does look like good snows wrapping around the back, but it's a mean so you know the usual caveats.SFC temps appear to stay below freezing from US-1 westward, and it does appear colder than the 15z, so that trend is good. A stronger low could mean more warm nose aloft, but colder at the surface. The HP trends are encouraging. But also: it's SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looking at P-types on the 21z it's all snow from a line about 5 miles east of CLT metro west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 SFC temps appear to stay below freezing from US-1 westward, and it does appear colder than the 15z, so that trend is good. A stronger low could mean more warm nose aloft, but colder at the surface. The HP trends are encouraging. But also: it's SREF. Yeah.. just with the NAM, be mindful the SREF can mislead. It was the other model that had hopped on the NAM wagon yesterday with the big overruning scenario and squash the TX s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 850 freezing line is west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looking at P-types on the 21z it's all snow from a line about 5 miles east of CLT metro west. Which way does that line go? I'm assuming that it goes between the triad and triangle regions based on other model guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Which way does that line go? I'm assuming that it goes between the triad and triangle regions based on other model guidance? Sorry RDU looks good until about hour 78 then it looks like it might be a switch to rain but no need to take it literally. RDU does benefit from good snows wrapping around from like 81-87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The area may be too far south for the initial system (or at least fringed), but we all get clocked by the second system on Wednesday. The EPS mean is 10" for Danville and 8.75" for Martinsville. Thanks for the information James. I haven't seen numbers for areas just to the east of KDAN but it looks like mostly snow north of I-85 along the VA/NC border -- if the departing low has as much wrap around moisture as the CMC is showing -- maybe 8" along the US 58 corridor from DAN to Buggs Island Lake (Kerr Lake)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Id say thru 15 the nam looks pretty similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18 the northern vort may be just a taddd southeast of its 18z position don't know what that will mean down the line here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sorry RDU looks good until about hour 78 then it looks like it might be a switch to rain but no need to take it literally. RDU does benefit from good snows wrapping around from like 81-87.I find it hard to believe that we switch to rain with a decent coastal that far out to sea with a damming HP in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I find it hard to believe that we switch to rain with a decent coastal that far out to sea with a damming HP in place. I agree period especially RDU even PGV would do a lot better generally anything 75-100 miles east of Hatteras is far enough especially with a strong high to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I find it hard to believe that we switch to rain with a decent coastal that far out to sea with a damming HP in place. We don't, it's a lot of ice west of 95, even CLT/GSO. It's the SREF at 66+ hours, really just care about track and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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