Ginx snewx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Yeah...Will mentioned the 1967 snow. It's too bad this is lining up on the same dates because the few days before and after would definitely be vulnerable at all of the sites. http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/095/mwr-095-08-0587.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Yup...if nice wx is out the window let's make it a historically miserable weekend. Let's gun for some record low maxes. One of my most memorable July 4th's was 1992 simply because of how wretched the wx was. Maybe this Memorial Day weekend can follow suit. I'm working all weekend so I'm content with doom and gloom... especially if Kevin tweets pictures from soggy soccer fields while everyone wears parkas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Hope the rain clears out by Monday. Headed to the outer banks Tuesday...and if I don't get the lawn mowed before I leave it will be a jungle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 What model is BOX looking at that gives U60s for highs? Sounds like Kevin wrote the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 30 degree diurnal spread with a low on top of you...that happens all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 What model is BOX looking at that gives U60s for highs? Sounds like Kevin wrote the AFD. MEX is 58/56F at HYA sat sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Yeah...Will mentioned the 1967 snow. It's too bad this is lining up on the same dates because the few days before and after would definitely be vulnerable at all of the sites. Yeah the fact it lines up with the 1967 snow event makes those record maxes some of the toughest to beat in the entire month vs climo. Sunday would probably be the best chance if we can keep the CCB cranking over us most of the day.There could be a shot at keeping temps near 40F in that setup. Saturday is likely to have 05z high temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 We still have time to trend this better warmer and less rainy. How do Euro ens look today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 We still have time to trend this better warmer and less rainy. How do Euro ens look today? Still pretty ugly. I mean a hair better..but might be grasping for straws. I guess this could always close off further west and dryslot the Cape or something....but tough to polish a terd if you know what I mean. Perhaps it begins to trend better, but the trend as of late isn't really in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Still pretty ugly. I mean a hair better..but might be grasping for straws. I guess this could always close off further west and dryslot the Cape or something....but tough to polish a terd if you know what I mean. Perhaps it begins to trend better, but the trend as of late isn't really in our favor.Any little bit helps all of us. It's not going to snow so let's trend things west and a little better. Would make all of us happier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Any little bit helps all of us. It's not going to snow so let's trend things west and a little better. Would make all of us happier I'd give it another day to work out the details...but set the standards low and dust off the early Spring gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 I'd give it another day to work out the details...but set the standards low and dust off the early Spring gear.Ive already posted an abysmal FB forecast to everyone going. My gut tells me though that where ill be may be in a relative nice spot as compared to most of SNE. I keep envisioning some type of pseudo dry slot or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 I'd give it another day to work out the details...but set the standards low and dust off the early Spring gear. the thing with this time of year...as you know obviously...is the perception factor is so much greater in terms of how people view the weather. i'm pretty confident that sat/sun as a whole are toast. it's going to be unsettled and probably cold/crappy. but if we end up with this occluded mess and the deep moisture pivots north and the low is positioned right...it's *possible* (not likely) this area could break out into partial sun and somewhat comfortable temps. and then it's a bust. and people are like wtf. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 the thing with this time of year...as you know obviously...is the perception factor is so much greater in terms of how people view the weather. i'm pretty confident that sat/sun as a whole are toast. it's going to be unsettled and probably cold/crappy. but if we end up with this occluded mess and the deep moisture pivots north and the low is positioned right...it's *possible* (not likely) this area could break out into partial sun and somewhat comfortable temps. and then it's a bust. and people are like wtf. lol Yeah, I mean maybe we dryslot or something like kevin said, but unless this cuts off over BDR...you're still going to have raw northerly flow and probably low clouds. It's like trying to find the least "suckiest" solution...but it still sucks..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Just get out and mow this evening in the summertime humidity. It will help relax me anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Yeah, I mean maybe we dryslot or something like kevin said, but unless this cuts off over BDR...you're still going to have raw northerly flow and probably low clouds. It's like trying to find the least "suckiest" solution...but it still sucks..lol. right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 One month earlier and Will may be ditching the wedding in VT for a Birch Buster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 One month earlier and Will may be ditching the wedding in VT for a Birch Buster. Hell, 3 weeks earlier this month would have made it a lot more likely considering how close it is on guidance. I'll be riding up over 2k in N VT though if there is snow to chase. I think someone is going to see some snow in this...its just whether its only confined to the 'Dacks or if its a bit further east into the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 at least the storm system will kill frost potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 GFS would give catpaws to ORH, snow to the Greens, and coastal flooding. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Tossed..all models except Euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Hell, 3 weeks earlier this month would have made it a lot more likely considering how close it is on guidance. I'll be riding up over 2k in N VT though if there is snow to chase. I think someone is going to see some snow in this...its just whether its only confined to the 'Dacks or if its a bit further east into the Greens. The Dacks are higher but the cold pool looks a little further east under the best forcing from the upper low, so this might be one situation in which the Greens are more likely to see snow than the Adirondacks despite inferior elevation and generally warmer climo. We know from the 5/27/67 storm that it's definitely possible to see snow this late, even down to the Monadnocks, but we're at the very end of climo that supports snowfall for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 GFS would give catpaws to ORH, snow to the Greens, and coastal flooding. Nice. Not that am buying it, but would be neat to see something this late in May I will be in North Adams Sat into Sunday... not sure of the elevation at the state park there... Just checked... looks like 1500-2000 ft neato Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Not that am buying it, but would be neat to see something this late in May I will be in North Adams Sat into Sunday... not sure of the elevation at the state park there... Just checked... looks like 1500-2000 ft neato I don't think it'll be cold enough there...it's going to be really tough in Massachusetts. You really need the coastal to strengthen fast to entrain that cold air from the sprawling high over the Canadian Prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I don't think it'll be cold enough there...it's going to be really tough in Massachusetts. You really need the coastal to strengthen fast to entrain that cold air from the sprawling high over the Canadian Prairies. Yeah... but I would be able to hit a 5 iron into VT where we will be... still, don't think it will be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Yeah... but I would be able to hit a 5 iron into VT where we will be... still, don't think it will be cold enough. I'm just glad the humidity will be gone. Local forecast has 59/48 here Saturday, which will feel lovely after this muck. I couldn't sleep last night at all with the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Tossed..all models except Euro ens Even that shows a rainstorm. Although even the GFS has trended a bit more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Hell, 3 weeks earlier this month would have made it a lot more likely considering how close it is on guidance. I'll be riding up over 2k in N VT though if there is snow to chase. I think someone is going to see some snow in this...its just whether its only confined to the 'Dacks or if its a bit further east into the Greens. Where you going to be? I can give some good high el spots to chase if need be...heck Smugglers Notch on RT 108 will be open at Stowe giving you 2,200ft but there are a lot of good spots in the northeast kingdom too that are over 1500ft. Jay Peak base area at 2000ft would be a good spot too with moist cyclonic flow... Naturally I'll be in North Woodstock, CT unable to chase snow in the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Where you going to be? I can give some good high el spots to chase if need be...heck Smugglers Notch on RT 108 will be open at Stowe giving you 2,200ft but there are a lot of good spots in the northeast kingdom too that are over 1500ft. Jay Peak base area at 2000ft would be a good spot too with moist cyclonic flow... Naturally I'll be in North Woodstock, CT unable to chase snow in the Greens. I'll be right in Burlington, the wedding is just outside it. So I'll def go chase snow if its going to accumulate. I don't think I'll chase catpaws or a few mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Weekend activities: Sleep, Scotch, movies, sports in distant cities, The Grandy man can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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