2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[Mike.Ventrice]

Thanks harry! I cant remember though if the ao/nao were negative then. Pdo is always a factor too. Yep, we got real cold in jan 2009. I do remember that though. 2010-2011 was a +QBO, but the nao/ao were negative, which helped out alot. 2011-12 was a -QBO, but super positive nao/ao.

 

I'm still considering changing around this index to optimize it a bit better but at the moment, this is how it stands. In light of all the wonderful stuff Sam from OKC is showing in his multivariate QBO index, I reproduced a similar index. I wont get into the nooks and crannies, but we are in a "Westerly", or + QBO (phases 4-5 of this new index)

 

 

I've created some 500 mb geopot height anomaly composites of the poles- looks like phases 7 and 1, or when westerlies change to easterlies at 50mb (phase 7), and during the mature easterly phase (Phase 1), is when you tend to see a low-frequency state that favors high-latitude blocking.

 

 

 

 

It's interesting to note how well the low-freq pattern has been when looking at this index- with a persistent positive NAO as we are in a phase 4-5 transition.

[mrgolf]

Mike ventrice, thanks for the pictures of the various phases of the qbo. I have a few questions. How long does it take on average to move to different phases of the qbo? Second, it looks like we will be in the mist of a +qbo during winter based on the chart you posted....so, if thats ends of being true, can we still have cold weather during winter in a +qbo? Mike, there are just so many different indicies to pay attention too. Im confused how winter 2010-11 was so cold and 2011-12 was very warm. I know the nao/ao had alot to do with it as well.

[Harry]

Thanks harry! I cant remember though if the ao/nao were negative then. Pdo is always a factor too. Yep, we got real cold in jan 2009. I do remember that though. 2010-2011 was a +QBO, but the nao/ao were negative, which helped out alot. 2011-12 was a -QBO, but super positive nao/ao.

 

 

Yep almost forgot about 2010-2011.

Link for NAO,http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Link for AO, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

Link for PDO, http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Mike.Ventrice]

Mike ventrice, thanks for the pictures of the various phases of the qbo. I have a few questions. How long does it take on average to move to different phases of the qbo? Second, it looks like we will be in the mist of a +qbo during winter based on the chart you posted....so, if thats ends of being true, can we still have cold weather during winter in a +qbo? Mike, there are just so many different indicies to pay attention too. Im confused how winter 2010-11 was so cold and 2011-12 was very warm. I know the nao/ao had alot to do with it as well.

 

Mrgolf, You can still have cold weather weather during westerly QBO... especially if there's a good snow pack in southern Canada. It does appear that we will be in a +QBO during winter, but most likely already peaked in its westerly phase. What this means for winter I'm not sure but it if we could make into phase 7 by Jan-Feb, there's a good chance it may be blockier near the N. Pole, resulting in more cold air in the mid-latitudes.

[ORH_wxman]

The new Euro SIPS run pretty all but abandons the idea of El Nino this winter with just a few stray members now showing a Nino. Its actually more skewed toward La Nina.

 

[JBG]

The new Euro SIPS run pretty all but abandons the idea of El Nino this winter with just a few stray members now showing a Nino. Its actually more skewed toward La Nina.

 

Even though PDO went positive recently, aren't we still in a cold phase (actually the early phases of one) that favors Ninas? Sort of like the early 1950's?

[It's Always Sunny]

Even though PDO went positive recently, aren't we still in a cold phase (actually the early phases of one) that favors Ninas? Sort of like the early 1950's?

 

I don't have the current index for the PDO but it was slightly negative last month and based off what I'm looking at it looks kind of neutral, but that's just me eyeballing it.

 

It's been in a predominant cold phase for quite some time now. Not sure if it favors La Ninas (someone can probably explain that better), but I know that if they are in the same phase as each other it is thought that La Nina is amplified, but with a semi-neutral ENSO right now it is hard to really pin it down despite models leaning slightly towards La Nina conditions.

[bluewave]

2008- 2014 looks like it will be the first time since 1950 that there was only one El Nino over

a seven late fall and winter stretch. The warming peaking around Labor Day last year 

and not becoming an El Nino for the winter was a very rare event. A very dominating

performance by the -PDO.

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/disappearing-el-nino-throws-a-wrench-in-noaas-winter-outlook-15134

 

“This year’s winter outlook has proven to be quite challenging largely due to an indecisive El Niño,” Halpert said. The demise of El Niño stands out when looking at the historical record that stretches back 60 years. During that time there has never been a similar case in which water temperatures warmed so much during August, and yet El Niño conditions failed to take hold, Halpert said.

“When we reach a certain threshold by August, in September we have always proceeded right into El Niño,” he said.

 

Monthly PDO

 

2008** -1.00 -0.77 -0.71 -1.52 -1.37 -1.34 -1.67 -1.70 -1.55 -1.76 -1.25 -0.87
2009** -1.40 -1.55 -1.59 -1.65 -0.88 -0.31 -0.53 0.09 0.52 0.27 -0.40 0.08
2010** 0.83 0.82 0.44 0.78 0.62 -0.22 -1.05 -1.27 -1.61 -1.06 -0.82 -1.21
2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79
2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93 -2.21 -0.79 -0.59 -0.48
2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78

[uncle W]

2008- 2014 looks like it will be the first time since 1950 that there was only one El Nino over

a seven late fall and winter stretch. The warming peaking around Labor Day last year 

and not becoming an El Nino for the winter was a very rare event. A very dominating

performance by the -PDO.

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/disappearing-el-nino-throws-a-wrench-in-noaas-winter-outlook-15134

 

“This year’s winter outlook has proven to be quite challenging largely due to an indecisive El Niño,” Halpert said. The demise of El Niño stands out when looking at the historical record that stretches back 60 years. During that time there has never been a similar case in which water temperatures warmed so much during August, and yet El Niño conditions failed to take hold, Halpert said.

“When we reach a certain threshold by August, in September we have always proceeded right into El Niño,” he said.

 

Monthly PDO

 

2008** -1.00 -0.77 -0.71 -1.52 -1.37 -1.34 -1.67 -1.70 -1.55 -1.76 -1.25 -0.87

2009** -1.40 -1.55 -1.59 -1.65 -0.88 -0.31 -0.53 0.09 0.52 0.27 -0.40 0.08

2010** 0.83 0.82 0.44 0.78 0.62 -0.22 -1.05 -1.27 -1.61 -1.06 -0.82 -1.21

2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79

2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93 -2.21 -0.79 -0.59 -0.48

2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78

1932 enso is the closest I found to 2012...mei

mei...

1932	.187	.276	.485	.787	.964	.998	1.114	1.025	.483	-.05	-.147	-.023

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

the JMA index shows the rise in the summer of 1932 and also 1934...

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

the last couple of weeks the oni was at -0.4...

[Snow_Miser]

You can really see the impacts of the hostile conditions for a Nino that some were talking about before. The large area of subsurface warm anomalies east of 120 W have essentially faded away.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's been more than faded it never was.

The charts on the CPC page have been altered to show far less subsurface heating.

This is twice in less than a year the East Central Pacific right near the equator has seen major downward revisions.

[donsutherland1]

My first guess about the December-February ENSO is that cool neutral and possibly La Niña conditions are likely to prevail. Odds of the development of an El Niño are very low.

 

An abnormally cold July ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly is a strong indication that neutral or La Niña conditions will prevail. July 2013 will likely see that anomaly come out around -1.4.

 

Since 1950, there have been 17 cases for which the July ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1 or below. The following were the December-February outcomes:

 

La Niña: 14 (83%) cases

Neutral (all <0 ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly): 3 (17%) cases

 

The statistical models are more or less in line with the historic experience described above. The following are the December-January-February forecasts:

 

La Niña: 2 (22%) cases

Neutral: 7 (78%) cases

 

All but one of the cases had a mean December-February anomaly < 0.0°. The single exception had a 0.0 anomaly.

 

Finally, as had been the case last year, the dynamical models are again behind the curve with respect to current ENSO conditions. Remarkably, 3 (25%) are forecasting an El Niño.

 

The combination of the historic experience, statistical models, and poor performance by the dynamical models suggests that little weight should be given to those models, particularly those suggesting a winter El Niño.

[usedtobe]

Don,

 

Nice post though kind of discouraging for us guys around DC.  We'll probably need lots of luck and/or a strongly negative AO/NAO to get a decent winter if the nina or even cold neutral conditions hold sway. 

[donsutherland1]

Don,

 

Nice post though kind of discouraging for us guys around DC.  We'll probably need lots of luck and/or a strongly negative AO/NAO to get a decent winter if the nina or even cold neutral conditions hold sway. 

Thanks Wes. Hopefully, things will still change or, if not, we'll have a lot of blocking this winter.

[Ed Lizard]

Any new ideas on the ENSO?

 

Now that it appears the lawn won't be watered from tropical sources, longe range interest in a nice Winter STJ.

[wxmx]

Any new ideas on the ENSO?

 

Now that it appears the lawn won't be watered from tropical sources, longe range interest in a nice Winter STJ.

[wolfpackmet]

This has probably been spotted and documented before but I noticed that in the last 63 years we've never had a La Nina after prolonged neutral conditions.  The longest neutral run before a La Nina was 9 tri-monthlies in 2005.  All the rest of the prolonged neutral condition runs (11) were 10 or more tri-monthlies of neutral conditions before an El Nino.  Currently we're at 15 and growing.

[GaWx]

This has probably been spotted and documented before but I noticed that in the last 63 years we've never had a La Nina after prolonged neutral conditions.  The longest neutral run before a La Nina was 9 tri-monthlies in 2005.  All the rest of the prolonged neutral condition runs (11) were 10 or more tri-monthlies of neutral conditions before an El Nino.  Currently we're at 15 and growing.

 

 Interesting observation. However, in my opinion, this is likely more of a random coincidence than anything else. For one thing, a look at the years prior to 1950 shows a pretty good number of La Nina's following prolonged neutral. Secondly and fwiw, the way they determined ONI prior to the current way yielded four instances of La Nina following prolonged neutral. So, I feel that if there is a correlation between prolonged neutral and a following El Nino, the correlation is weak.

[JBG]

This has probably been spotted and documented before but I noticed that in the last 63 years we've never had a La Nina after prolonged neutral conditions.  The longest neutral run before a La Nina was 9 tri-monthlies in 2005.  All the rest of the prolonged neutral condition runs (11) were 10 or more tri-monthlies of neutral conditions before an El Nino.  Currently we're at 15 and growing.

Weren't there some back in the early 1950's?

[icebreaker5221]

30-day average SOI has now fallen for 20 consecutive days and now stands at -1.09. 

 

Easterlies wind anomalies at 200 mb in the central Pacific also suggest that the Walker Circulation is weak right now. 

 

[uncle W]

oni goes back to 1950...1999-2002 were four straight years with a - for DJF...

1999 -1.5

2000 -1.7

2001 -0.7

2002 -0.2

mei goes back to 1870...using the Dec/Jan index 1890-1896 had seven straight years with a negative value...1872-76 had five...1907-11 had five...1943-46, 1960-63, 1999-02 had four...using the JMA that goes back to 1870...1870-1876 had seven straight negatives...1907-11 had five...1943-47 had five...1960-63 had four...1999-02 had four...

[WxMidwest]

The idea that we are still in a -PDO dedadal cycle does not help the idea of an El Nino forming. 09/10 would be the anomaly..

[JBG]

The idea that we are still in a -PDO dedadal cycle does not help the idea of an El Nino forming. 09/10 would be the anomaly..

-PDO doesn't prevent El Nino's forming, it just makes them rarer and, more importantly, less pervasive.

Think 1957-8 (good snow year), 1972-3 (awful snow year but a lot of near misses) and 2009-10 (good snow year). Even 1972-3 featured cold conditions in the Upper Midwest and Plains, including one notable cold wave there in the week ending December 15, 1972, and a frigid outbreak in the Northeast December 16-18, 1972 and January 6-13, 1973 (and a few other less notable ones). Other El Ninos during +PDO phases, such as 1982-3, 1986-7, 1990-95 (with a short negative neutral break) and of course 1997-8 bathed the country in warm air.

[bkviking]

Looking at recent SSTAs in Pacific, there looks like a lot of warmth there, perhaps not in west ENSO regions, but is that not a +PDO with that bath of warmth (or is that transitory?) and not a lot of cool SSTs in ENSO regions. With the shear in the Atlantic, the crippled hurricane season, the big western ridge, and the extreme wetness in the south and eastern US, it's almost acting like El Niño. To what degree has the pacific ENSO and PDO regimes had an affect on the Atlantic side--tropical calm, cool-wet south, hot west? Have other -PDO/neutral ENSO/+AMO summers acted like this?

[Redmorninglight]

Looking at recent SSTAs in Pacific, there looks like a lot of warmth there, perhaps not in west ENSO regions, but is that not a +PDO with that bath of warmth (or is that transitory?) and not a lot of cool SSTs in ENSO regions. With the shear in the Atlantic, the crippled hurricane season, the big western ridge, and the extreme wetness in the south and eastern US, it's almost acting like El Niño. To what degree has the pacific ENSO and PDO regimes had an affect on the Atlantic side--tropical calm, cool-wet south, hot west? Have other -PDO/neutral ENSO/+AMO summers acted like this?

bkviking

  you echo what i have been thinking about all summer long.  this has been a very different year, but i wonder if this year is a case that has any precedent?  well stated comment, however.

jeff

[The_Global_Warmer]

Is there any analogs like this?

 

 

 

[EasternUSWX]

[Ed Lizard]

Anyone know how to do the current SSTs and compare to this time before the miracle winters of 2004-2005, 2008-2009 and 2009-2010?

[GaWx]

Anyone know how to do the current SSTs and compare to this time before the miracle winters of 2004-2005, 2008-2009 and 2009-2010?

 

 Well, 2004-5 was a weak Nino and 2009-10 a strong one. If 2013-14 were to somehow turn out to be even just a weak Nino, it would be totally unprecedented going all of the way back to at least 1871. Since 1871, Nino 3.4 had a positive SST anomaly during the August before every single Nino (a whopping 38 of them) that followed that fall and/or winter. In 2013, August was ~-0.30. So it wasn't even that close to 0. When also considering that the SOI is now pretty neutral rather than solidly negative, I would be totally shocked if 2013-4 were to turn out to be an official Nino (5 trimonths in a row of +0.5+ SST in 3.4). The odds strongly favor a neutral fall/winter officially. Now, it could realistically still turn out to be a neutral positive in fall/winter especially considering recent warming, but that's still not a weak Nino. 

[icebreaker5221]

 Well, 2004-5 was a weak Nino and 2009-10 a strong one. If 2013-14 were to somehow turn out to be even just a weak Nino, it would be totally unprecedented going all of the way back to at least 1871. Since 1871, Nino 3.4 had a positive SST anomaly during the August before every single Nino (a whopping 38 of them) that followed that fall and/or winter. In 2013, August was ~-0.30. So it wasn't even that close to 0. When also considering that the SOI is now pretty neutral rather than solidly negative, I would be totally shocked if 2013-4 were to turn out to be an official Nino (5 trimonths in a row of +0.5+ SST in 3.4). The odds strongly favor a neutral fall/winter officially.

 

Yup.  After an extended nose-dive, 30-day SOI has pretty much levelled-off in the 0 to -1 range.  Doubtful that we see it fall much further unless some warming starts to occur first.