NNE Winter Thread II

[dryslot]

Nice bump in the snow forecast overnight.

Sure is, Bet that makes you happy, Congrats............

[tamarack]

I suppose nothing has verified yet, so I shouldn't rag on ch 13 too much. If I get that 2-5 I'll wax Lopresti's BMW, though.

13 has been warminista territory since the Paul Cousins days.

AUG is in the center of Maine's "brown band", with yesterday's dusting-2" from Richmond south and the leftovers from last week from Belgrade north. A short-lived brown band, fortunately. GYX's newest map is the best yet, as MBY sneaks into 14-18" country. (Oddly, their 6-hr-increment snow tool is out of whack, with nobody getting more than about 2" thru 7 PM tomorrow.) 06z gfs shows qpf 1.25"+ in places progged for all frozen, and over 2" for PWM though about 2/3 would be wet.

[eyewall]

[powderfreak]

Nice! Glad we are getting a storm while your here eyewall. In fact, you should come up more often as last year you also brought the best period of winter up here last February with that massive upslope event.

[bch2014]

ADK/Powderfreak, any thoughts on what Burke could get out of this storm? I understand that the towns around there get shadowed, but does the same effect occur on the mountain?

[powderfreak]

ADK/Powderfreak, any thoughts on what Burke could get out of this storm? I understand that the towns around there get shadowed, but does the same effect occur on the mountain?

I honestly don't know that climate nearly as well. CTsnowstorm would be the one that should know more.

I would assume the effects are canceled out to some extent at 3,000ft up top, but I really don't know that area locally on a mountain scale.

[powderfreak]

My final call for the ski resort is 6-10" with the first wave of SE to NE flow, then 3-6" tomorrow night as winds flip NW. Total on the mountain should be in the 10-16" range. For town I still like 8-14"...pretty much like BTV's map of 11-12".

Track it and pack it... that's what the groomers will be doing tonight. This is a high confidence snow forecast so its time for the snowcats to get out there and pack as many natural snow trails as possible. Then there's a good surface under for a foot of snow to fall on top of. That'll make some real sweet bump runs and natural snow skiing as the troughs won't get skied down to dirt. They'll probably be covering a lot of miles prior to midnight tonight... then second shift can focus on providing a few main routes and keeping snowmobile travel lanes passable for lift maintenance and ski patrol, as well as lift terminals clear of snow.

I love early pre-dawn storm mornings at the mountain.

[NEK_VT_Upslope_Event]

I honestly don't know that climate nearly as well. CTsnowstorm would be the one that should know more.

I would assume the effects are canceled out to some extent at 3,000ft up top, but I really don't know that area locally on a mountain scale.

From my understanding that is largely correct. Even the 1000 ft additional elevation to the base from st j and Lyndon usually makes a huge difference. I'd be shocked if Burke didn't get at least 10" with likely more.

[ctsnowstorm628]

From my understanding that is largely correct. Even the 1000 ft additional elevation to the base from st j and Lyndon usually makes a huge difference. I'd be shocked if Burke didn't get at least 10" with likely more.

My guess is Burke gets shadowed somewhat on its western facing slope....but I think Burke is good for 10-14".

[wxjim207]

Def a change from last night at WGME

[powderfreak]

Man I can't believe how cold it was last night... hit 0F here at MVL. I've got like 1" hoar frost on the lawn this morning...just sparkling frost layer on the snowpack.

I think the forcing is going to be prolific...radar and storm evolution looks great, with a good cold dome over us, this moist and warmer SE flow over-top that is going to have no issue producing QPF.

[adk]

My final call for the ski resort is 6-10" with the first wave of SE to NE flow, then 3-6" tomorrow night as winds flip NW. Total on the mountain should be in the 10-16" range. For town I still like 8-14"...pretty much like BTV's map of 11-12".

I think that's about right. I'd be tempted to suggest something in the 18 range considering the possiblity that the snowshowers on the NW flow could be robust with big dendrites. But that's splitting hairs. I think this is well modeled and really not that complicated of a storm.

[powderfreak]

Man by the time its all done now, the GFS has pretty much the entire state of VT except St. Johnsbury at over 1.00" of QPF...some spots up to 1.5".

This should be solid. Textbook mid-level tracks across SNE for big snows in NNE.

[powderfreak]

I think that's about right. I'd be tempted to suggest something in the 18 range considering the possiblity that the snowshowers on the NW flow could be robust with big dendrites. But that's splitting hairs. I think this is well modeled and really not that complicated of a storm.

Some of the meso-models are giving you a pretty good show in BTV...lol 1.9" QPF down and still snowing. The good ol' school ETA.

[dryslot]

Reasonable

[mattb65]

Reasonable

Pretty odd looking weenie they drew there.

(will bust for VT mountains but that's obviously not their focus)

[powderfreak]

Pretty odd looking weenie they drew there.

(will bust for VT mountains but that's obviously not their focus)

Yeah never look into TV met forecasts if you are outside their viewing area.

That map looks good for where it's supposed to.

[wxjim207]

Yeah never look into TV met forecasts if you are outside their viewing area.

That map looks good for where it's supposed to.

Yes for someone like myself who draws these all the time for TV yes we only focus on our viewing area.

[eyewall]

My final call for the ski resort is 6-10" with the first wave of SE to NE flow, then 3-6" tomorrow night as winds flip NW. Total on the mountain should be in the 10-16" range. For town I still like 8-14"...pretty much like BTV's map of 11-12".

Track it and pack it... that's what the groomers will be doing tonight. This is a high confidence snow forecast so its time for the snowcats to get out there and pack as many natural snow trails as possible. Then there's a good surface under for a foot of snow to fall on top of. That'll make some real sweet bump runs and natural snow skiing as the troughs won't get skied down to dirt. They'll probably be covering a lot of miles prior to midnight tonight... then second shift can focus on providing a few main routes and keeping snowmobile travel lanes passable for lift maintenance and ski patrol, as well as lift terminals clear of snow.

I love early pre-dawn storm mornings at the mountain.

Very cool. By the way I attempted my first double black at Bolton and definitely paid for it LOL.

[powderfreak]

BTV WRF is just a crush job for everyone.

Locally I agree with the axis of heaviest precip... you have enhancement in Allenson's Orange Heights, along the Green Mountain Spine with the most widespread enhancement the further south you go down the spine. In the RT 100 corridor it looks solid with amounts tapering slightly here in Stowe vs. Waterbury/Warren/Waitsfield.

Big widespread snows for all.

[eekuasepinniW]

Shaved off totals to the south and upped further north.

[bobbutts]

Shaved off totals to the south and upped further north.

This is probably a weenie post, but seems to me they are hugging the 12z american models and ignoring downstream obs. I'm expecting > than the 6-8" they are tossing me.

[powderfreak]

Man all 12z guidance is just a big, big hit for 95% of NNE. Immediate coastline in ME may be the only question mark.

UKMET, Canadian, GFS, NAM, other meso-models... wow. Congrats all.

This looks about as good as it gets too for development at this stage. Just a classic east coast winter storm.

[NEK_VT_Upslope_Event]

BTV WRF is just a crush job for everyone.

Locally I agree with the axis of heaviest precip... you have enhancement in Allenson's Orange Heights, along the Green Mountain Spine with the most widespread enhancement the further south you go down the spine. In the RT 100 corridor it looks solid with amounts tapering slightly here in Stowe vs. Waterbury/Warren/Waitsfield.

Big widespread snows for all.

Bar none the best detail pick up of upslope and downslope areas...instead of a big blob of lower qpf from the other models this just really picks up the nuances of elevation and other factors. game on!

[J.Spin]

Man all 12z guidance is just a big, big hit for 95% of NNE. Immediate coastline in ME may be the only question mark.

UKMET, Canadian, GFS, NAM, other meso-models... wow. Congrats all.

This looks about as good as it gets too for development at this stage. Just a classic east coast winter storm.

Heavy snow is called for in the next two periods on our point forecast, but essentially the whole rest of the month/holiday period is looking good:

Yesterday’s snow already puts our season snowfall well ahead of where it was at this point in 2006 (12.5”), 2011 (22.5”), and 2009 (26.2”), so it’s going to be fun to see where it is after this storm and the rest of the week.

[polski]

Man all 12z guidance is just a big, big hit for 95% of NNE. Immediate coastline in ME may be the only question mark.

Couple skiing-related questions if I may:

With latest model runs is risk of non-snow diminishing/gone for S/Central NH (Sunapee, Gunstock, maybe Ragged)? Also for Magic.

And what's the thinking about wind speed/direction and possibility of wind holds tomorrow at the aforementioned spots and Friday in the N Greens (from SB/MRG on north)?

Thanks in advance

[mreaves]

BTV WRF is just a crush job for everyone.

Locally I agree with the axis of heaviest precip... you have enhancement in Allenson's Orange Heights, along the Green Mountain Spine with the most widespread enhancement the further south you go down the spine. In the RT 100 corridor it looks solid with amounts tapering slightly here in Stowe vs. Waterbury/Warren/Waitsfield.

Big widespread snows for all.

Looks like it has me straddling the 2" qpf line. I would be happy. I may regret my decision not to get a new plow guy after mine retired. Shoveling ftl, everything else ftw!

[powderfreak]

Couple skiing-related questions if I may:

With latest model runs is risk of non-snow diminishing/gone for S/Central NH (Sunapee, Gunstock, maybe Ragged)? Also for Magic.

And what's the thinking about wind speed/direction and possibility of wind holds tomorrow at the aforementioned spots and Friday in the N Greens (from SB/MRG on north)?

Thanks in advance

I haven't looked all that hard at that area of southern VT into adjacent NH... but I can't imagine any solution where they don't get a foot of snow. A little sleet mixed in isn't going to affect much in the total outcome.

Wind holds will be tough to predict. This is an easterly flow and we don't get these all that often so its hard to say what 30-50mph out of the east will do. It isn't our stock NW wind. What the wind will do is provide some drifting in areas that you usually don't see it, so that should be fun. Normally we are all so used to going right where we know NW winds put the snow, but this should be a bit different snow transport in the mountains. Should be fun.

[jlauderdal]

Should I be happy I am not arriving at Stowe until Saturday and thus the skiing will be ready to roll or be really mad i am missing this thing by a couple of days but would probably be stuck inside for at least tomorrow if i was there?

Its a win anyway because its going to be an awesome week with all of this snow cover and cold air in place...please get us another system for later next week at least 12+.

[dryslot]

Shaved off totals to the south and upped further north.

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