Multi-Hazard Analysis for New York City

[meteorologist]

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hazard_mitigation/section_3f_coastal_storm_hazard_analysis.pdf

[meteorologist]

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/pdf/cwp/vision2020_nyc_cwp.pdf

[earthlight]

Some interesting information in there. I believe this link was going around prior to the hurricane -- or maybe it was a previous version of it.

[Amped]

I think Sandy will be the worst of our lifetimes despsince nothing since 1821 comes close. 3.3% chance of a major hurricane in a 50 year period. That implies 50% chance of it happening in the next 1033 years. Unless they discover the fountain of youth, we'll all be dead.

[rcad1]

I was wondering if Sandy counts as n.y. Big hurricane in which everyone says n.y. Is over due for a big hirricane or does Sandy really not count since it made landfall in s jersy and the national hurricane center claims it was post tropical when it came ashore .guess we wil never really know will we???

[jasonli18t]

I was wondering if Sandy counts as n.y. Big hurricane in which everyone says n.y. Is over due for a big hirricane or does Sandy really not count since it made landfall in s jersy and the national hurricane center claims it was post tropical when it came ashore .guess we wil never really know will we???

it counts.

if you are waiting for an annular category 5 to make landfall on manhattan beach you'll be waiting a very long time. to me, sandy was the type of scenario we have been waiting for, as it is one of the only scenarios that involves a storm actually deepening as it approaches us, rather than weakening over colder waters. it is also one of the only scenarios that takes a storm nearly parallel to the shore, creating the most potential for storm surge, rather than most other scenarios which would simply have the storm approach from the southeast on a typical diagonal, or possibly just ride straight up the coast.

[meteorologist]

ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Ning_etal_2010.pdf

http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/nhp/docs/20110913_Final_Metro%20NY%20TDR.pdf

http://www.dhses.ny.gov/oem/safety-info/publicsafety/documents/nys-hurricane-storm-surge-zones.pdf

http://northeastquadrant.blogspot.com/2010/09/vulnerable-northeast-slosh-scenarios.html

http://gawker.com/5834730/science-and-math-prove-this-hurricane-will-destroy-us-all

https://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2010NE/finalprogram/abstract_169194.htm

http://www.noaawatch.gov/themes/coastal_inundation.php

http://spatialityblog.com/2011/08/25/coastal-storm-impact-risk-mapped-in-nyc/

[Brian5671]

it counts.

if you are waiting for an annular category 5 to make landfall on manhattan beach you'll be waiting a very long time. to me, sandy was the type of scenario we have been waiting for, as it is one of the only scenarios that involves a storm actually deepening as it approaches us, rather than weakening over colder waters. it is also one of the only scenarios that takes a storm nearly parallel to the shore, creating the most potential for storm surge, rather than most other scenarios which would simply have the storm approach from the southeast on a typical diagonal, or possibly just ride straight up the coast.

S

Strongly agree with your post-this was it-the big one. And the heck with someone calling it post tropical upon landfall....that's academic at this point.

[SnoSki14]

Sandy was likely the big one for us to experience, but it's highly probable that an even stronger storm, maybe larger, and deeper (pressure wise) with a similar path could one day impact this region. Or I guess maybe another LI Express with a Sandy track could one day happen. The SLOSH models have Category 3 and 4 probabilities which means it can happen. Out of all those variables though, the Sandy track may be the most difficult to achieve because we've never seen anything like it.

Sandy's track is what made her the worst case for us because that water had nowhere else to go but onshore, her size, her low pressure made her the monster she was for us, but I believe it could be worse one day (probably not in our lifetime though, I hope).

[IsentropicLift]

You aren't going to find a more perfect setup for us. Everything had to fall exactly in place for it even to be possible. I supposed if an intense Hurricane was moving Northwest of Bermuda during peak season and for some reason a strong enough ridge build to the NE, you might be able to force it NW without phasing with a trough. but I have seen some fantasy land GFS runs before that showed this.

[CT Rain]

Sandy was likely the big one for us to experience, but it's highly probable that an even stronger storm, maybe larger, and deeper (pressure wise) with a similar path could one day impact this region. Or I guess maybe another LI Express with a Sandy track could one day happen. The SLOSH models have Category 3 and 4 probabilities which means it can happen. Out of all those variables though, the Sandy track may be the most difficult to achieve because we've never seen anything like it.

Sandy's track is what made her the worst case for us because that water had nowhere else to go but onshore, her size, her low pressure made her the monster she was for us, but I believe it could be worse one day (probably not in our lifetime though, I hope).

No doubt for NYC proper this was pretty much the "big one" we've been talking about in terms of surge. That said, for Long Island and New England this was nowhere close to the big one in terms of surge or wind. Look at the people on Suffolk County who just got their power back from wind damage. Wait until you have fully foliated trees and 80-90 mph sustained winds... and not 60mph sustained.

[rcad1]

Yeah long island is in big trouble if they get,a hurricane with 80-90mph winds like you said were just getting power back now from Sandy and I think the damage was deff more because how long the winds lasted and not how strong they were cause I could be wrong but I believe Irene had higher reported wind gust then Sandy did again im only talking about long island.... I think LIPA should start planning now for the chance of future storms I mean what's going to happen if we get a slow moving strong nor'easter this winter that has winds gusting over 60mph for a longe period of time....

[CT Rain]

Yeah long island is in big trouble if they get,a hurricane with 80-90mph winds like you said were just getting power back now from Sandy and I think the damage was deff more because how long the winds lasted and not how strong they were cause I could be wrong but I believe Irene had higher reported wind gust then Sandy did again im only talking about long island.... I think LIPA should start planning now for the chance of future storms I mean what's going to happen if we get a slow moving strong nor'easter this winter that has winds gusting over 60mph for a longe period of time....

Winds were, for the most part, significantly stronger in Sandy than during Irene. The duration was an issue but to be honest a direct landfall of a solid cat 1 would blow Sandy out of the water in terms of impact.

Infrastructure like LIRR, power distribution, gasoline/food/water all are exceptionally vulnerable.

[rcad1]

Agree 100%

[NorthShoreWx]

Infrastructure like LIRR, power distribution, gasoline/food/water all are exceptionally vulnerable.

I noticed. They need to identify the priorities for power restoration and also do what it takes to keep them from losing power in the first place.

I've gotta believe the gas problems could have been managed better with a little planning. It seems to me that component wasn't part of disaster planning at all. Had this been winter, heating oil could be a problem for even those with the power to run their heating systems.

Long Island is a tough place to deal with electricity. There are thousands of miles of tree shaded power lines. We don't want to cut down all of our trees. I haven't seen anything on the economics of burying everything, but I've a hunch that is no panacea either.

[meteorologist]

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2012/1120-sandy/survey-of-the-flooding-in-new-york-after-the-hurricane.html

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

http://www.nytimes.c...-hurricane.html

Extremely accurate in my area of South Wantagh pretty much matches exactly where I observed the surge stop on my block.

[JBG]

I was wondering if Sandy counts as n.y. Big hurricane in which everyone says n.y. Is over due for a big hirricane or does Sandy really not count since it made landfall in s jersy and the national hurricane center claims it was post tropical when it came ashore .guess we wil never really know will we???

it counts.

if you are waiting for an annular category 5 to make landfall on manhattan beach you'll be waiting a very long time. to me, sandy was the type of scenario we have been waiting for, as it is one of the only scenarios that involves a storm actually deepening as it approaches us, rather than weakening over colder waters. it is also one of the only scenarios that takes a storm nearly parallel to the shore, creating the most potential for storm surge, rather than most other scenarios which would simply have the storm approach from the southeast on a typical diagonal, or possibly just ride straight up the coast.

I vote for it counting. Storms do not take count of political boundaries and ACY is i that sense very close to NYC.

[forkyfork]

No doubt for NYC proper this was pretty much the "big one" we've been talking about in terms of surge. That said, for Long Island and New England this was nowhere close to the big one in terms of surge or wind. Look at the people on Suffolk County who just got their power back from wind damage. Wait until you have fully foliated trees and 80-90 mph sustained winds... and not 60mph sustained.

that probably would have been the case had this occurred in september

[meteorologist]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/25/opinion/sunday/rising-seas-vanishing-coastlines.html

[meteorologist]

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slrviewer/index.html

[jm1220]

For Long Beach, this was almost certainly the worst storm since 1938, since no one here can remember a storm like this besides that one. This was significantly worse here than Gloria or Belle, and much, much worse than storms like Irene or Floyd. The wind was bad but the surge was absolutely the #1 impact to this area. Sand dunes were driven right into heavily populated neighborhoods, the boardwalk was largely devastated, the town was largely uninhabitable for weeks due to sewage in the drinking water, no power, and debris/wreckage tossed everywhere. Cars were tossed around by the surge all over the place, and some exploded and started fires due to the salt water igniting the car batteries. In the next town over (Island Park), dozens of boats were lifted up and dropped all over town. Long Beach still resembles a war zone in many ways, and there is still a lot of suffering, even post-gas lines, nightly curfews, non-functioning cellphones and no power. Sewage is still pouring into the Reynolds Channel due to the major sewage plant in Hewlett not functioning, and many homes still have no heat or hot water. Large sections of town are just dark and desolate where there would normally be a bustling atmosphere. Long Beach is recovering but it will be a very long road. I'm hoping personally to be back home in a few weeks after my place is done with repairs. The water in my house got up to about 3 ft deep.

I have to agree though that for most of the rest of Long Island not inundated by the surge, this was bad but not devastating/catastrophic. The wind wasn't strong enough to cause that much structural damage, and most damage was limited to trees being down, and most of these areas are back to normal now and have been for a couple of weeks. In Midtown north of 34th Street and not immediately alongside the East/Hudson Rivers, it's almost like nothing happened. The North Shore also dodged a bullet since the surge came at an opportune time for them. For us on the South Shore, it hit at the absolute worst time at high tide, and the water could not retreat quickly due to strong SE winds. With Irene, the water left as fast as it came.

[meteorologist]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/weather-service-draws-fire-for-halting-sandy-review-panel-agency-cites-regulations/2012/12/02/ce2218ce-3b3b-11e2-b01f-5f55b193f58f_print.html

[Mitchel Volk]

In the 1950's a warm eddy from the Gulf Stream broke off and hit Long Island. If this happen again and the storm was cat 3 to 5 in late August off the coast of Hatteras moving northwest it could be worse much worse. In addition, add global warming and anticipated sea rise of three to seven feet by 2100 it could happen. I bet by the 22nd or 23rd century it will happen if we do not stop global warming.

[Amped]

They can build houses capable of with standing the wind and water that Sandy produced with minimal damage. It just wasn't in the building code hose houses way back when those houses were built and nobody wanted to knock down their house and rebuild a flood/wind resistant one. Of course those wouldn't of helped much with the fires, which were by far the worst looking areas after the storm.

http://www.fema.gov/library/file?type=publishedFile&file=fema_tb_2_rev1.pdf&fileid=755d9790-dbac-11df-ab3b-001cc4568fb6

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane-proof_building

[jm1220]

In the 1950's a warm eddy from the Gulf Stream broke off and hit Long Island. If this happen again and the storm was cat 3 to 5 in late August off the coast of Hatteras moving northwest it could be worse much worse. In addition, add global warming and anticipated sea rise of three to seven feet by 2100 it could happen. I bet by the 22nd or 23rd century it will happen if we do not stop global warming.

It seems like you really need a baroclinic assist to have a really major storm strike here. An unaided hurricane normally gets choked to death by dry air, as well as increased shear and cold waters as it comes up here, which is how Irene and Gloria rotted. I think the only way Sandy could have been worse if if she were a strong cat 3 or 4 when absorbed by the trough rather than a cat 1. If Sandy happened in September, more of the strong winds would likely have mixed down as well. But it seems like the really bad systems hit here in the late season because that is when troughs and shortwaves can dive far south enough to phase with an incoming hurricane.

[JBG]

But it seems like the really bad systems hit here in the late season because that is when troughs and shortwaves can dive far south enough to phase with an incoming hurricane.

I think, hope and pray that you're right.