Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 seems like they are going to call for similar irene evacs....north of 25a south of sunrise. We'll see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=weather&id=8860224 nassau county story on evacuations (voluntary right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://abclocal.go.c...ther&id=8860224 nassau county story on evacuations (voluntary right now) that was based on information he provided last night. Mandatory evacuation now south of merrick rd (maybe south of sunrise? not sure) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 there's nothing on the Nassue OEM twitter pg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 we'll I dont know what to tell you...a phone call from nassau cty oem saying mandatory immediate evac seems legitimate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 nothing on Ed Mangano's twitter, nothing on news day. any one got a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 we'll I dont know what to tell you...a phone call from nassau cty oem saying mandatory immediate evac seems legitimate? agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Some of the canals in Brightwaters are already flowing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM has really ramped up the 10m winds now...30-40kts sustained throughout the entire area with 40+kts sustained along the beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 If Eagles-Falcons game was Monday night, that Atlanta FG kicker could go for a 100-yarder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 posting the Mount Holly briefing here as well since they have responsibility for North Jersey. Hope that is okay with you guys. Of particular note are the several pages related to storm surge expectations which will likely translate further north in equal heights or greater. Also of note is the MIC's personal plea that follows the surge discussion: http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf The potential for storm surge in Raritan Bay is scary...they mention 12 to 15 feet...has that ever happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM has really ramped up the 10m winds now...30-40kts sustained throughout the entire area with 40+kts sustained along the beaches John, Anything else you can add, that you haven't already said over the past few hours/days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The potential for storm surge in Raritan Bay is scary...they mention 12 to 15 feet...has that ever happened? Shouldn't parts of the Amboys be evacuated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the rex block and corresponding low in the N Atlantic is massive. WV loops are quite the eye candy, another couple hundred miles and this thing cant go any further N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 official...mandatory evacuations in storm surge zones. http://oysterbay.patch.com/articles/mangano-advises-voluntary-evacuation-for-storm-surge-zones-ahead-of-hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the rex block and corresponding low in the N Atlantic is massive. WV loops are quite the eye candy, another couple hundred miles and this thing cant go any further N. any links? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM has really ramped up the 10m winds now...30-40kts sustained throughout the entire area with 40+kts sustained along the beaches I'm sure we'll see 30-40 gusts 50...what I don't know is what we might see beyond that, I think 50-70 is very likely, anything over that probably still a stretch given the relative stability profile and low level temps. I think for sure if this was 6-8 hours earlier we'd stand a better shot seeing those 850-900 winds mix down but given the peak window arrives probably 22-03z when the sun is down it will hurt the chances somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 official...mandatory evacuations in storm surge zones. http://oysterbay.pat...ad-of-hurricane Does this include Oceanside, NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 any links? Thanks! 14MB, may take sec to load: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 any links? Thanks! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm sure we'll see 30-40 gusts 50...what I don't know is what we might see beyond that, I think 50-70 is very likely, anything over that probably still a stretch given the relative stability profile and low level temps. I think for sure if this was 6-8 hours earlier we'd stand a better shot seeing those 850-900 winds mix down but given the peak window arrives probably 22-03z when the sun is down it will hurt the chances somewhat. you've been pseudo downplaying this whole event with your tone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM has really ramped up the 10m winds now...30-40kts sustained throughout the entire area with 40+kts sustained along the beaches The NAM MOS for JFK shows a 40 knot sustained wind at 00z, Tuesday. Quite impressive for a NAM MOS product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 you've been pseudo downplaying this whole event with your tone The flooding will be really bad the winds I think if this was 4 weeks earlier would be a catastrophe but the I think the potential low level inversion is really going to make it difficult to get anything over 60-70 mph to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just got a call from con ed. They might shut off the power for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 you've been pseudo downplaying this whole event with your tone Nothing he has said is false however. Temps in the 50s and maximum wind potential occurring when there's the least amount of diurnal heating is going to prevent the strongest winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The lack of relatively significant rains is also not helping the cause. At least with Irene that firehouse of precipitation mixed down some strong gusts into the 70mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The flooding will be really bad the winds I think if this was 4 weeks earlier would be a catastrophe but the I think the potential low level inversion is really going to make it difficult to get anything over 60-70 mph to the surface. I agree with you in fact the only ones going with high winds up tp 60 around philly is mt holly...seems like a big hype from the info we now have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just got a call from con ed. They might shut off the power for my area. Think they did some of that with Irene if I remember right. I think especially near water zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Nothing he has said is false however. Temps in the 50s and maximum wind potential occurring when there's the least amount of diurnal heating is going to prevent the strongest winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The lack of relatively significant rains is also not helping the cause. At least with Irene that firehouse of precipitation mixed down some strong gusts into the 70mph range. I would presume almost all areas gust higher than irene. It was pretty meh in terms of wind away from immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Here's a frightening forecast for the waters just offshore from NYC/N NJ: THIS AFTERNOON N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT BUILDING TO 17 TO 26 FT...HIGHEST S. RAIN WITH VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM. TONIGHT N TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 TO 34 FT. RAIN WITH VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM. MON N WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 26 TO 38 FT. RAIN WITH VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM. MON NIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO S TO SW 50 TO 70 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 45 TO 55 KT LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 16 TO 26 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VSBY IMPROVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The flooding will be really bad the winds I think if this was 4 weeks earlier would be a catastrophe but the I think the potential low level inversion is really going to make it difficult to get anything over 60-70 mph to the surface. I'm thinking 80-90 mph gusts on the coast are a decent possibility. Inland where friction will play a role would be less than that. The waters are warmer than normal, and we can certainly get big wind events during the winter-Dec 1992 I believe gusted well over 70 mph in places, and then of course there was the March 2010 storm. I think sustained winds will be hard to break 60-65 mph anywhere. The much bigger story of course will be the surge flooding, and anywhere where winds like that are possible, the water will trump that by 1000. The water already got more than halfway up the beach at this AM's high tide here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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