NNE Heart of Winter

[powderfreak]

^{Great be there Sat morning with the gang.}

Hopefully we can pick up a few inches before then...I have a feeling conditions may be firm but who knows. There was a half inch to an inch up there but 3" would help avoid a skating rink.

[dendrite]

It has gotten up to 40.6F in the past hour, but it's back down to 37.6F now. We're getting 5F wild swings depending on how strong the winds/mixing is.

[dryslot]

Must be a shallow warm layer above, The foothills and mtns are in the high 30's and we have stayed below freezing for the most part today

[OceanStWx]

Clear as day on the 00z sounding. 29 at the surface but pushing 40 at 1500 ft (probably even more accentuated in NH). Impressive inversion...

It was odd to comment in the AFD today that our best chance at reaching high temperatures would be after the cold front when winds kick up.

[J.Spin]

It's been raining steadily in the village this evening at 36F so I just drove a couple miles up the road and sure enough it's dumping up by the ski resort. Snow level was around 1200ft with road snow covered above like 1300-1400ft. Full on wet snow raging at 1500ft sticking to everything.

Yeah, it felt like déjà vu, almost exactly the same experience that I reported Friday evening with that mixed system from the end of last week: leave Burlington toward evening, head into the mountains and it’s absolutely pouring rain in the valley. This time I couldn’t see the crystals in the raindrops since it was a few degrees warmer than Friday, but I’d checked the temperature up on Mansfield, saw that it was well below freezing, and knew that the mountains were getting hammered with snow. I can’t recall a time when we’ve had quite this long a parade of substantially mixed events during midwinter though. I can recall getting them stacked up one after another on the front or back end of the season when cold air is more limited, but this stretch seems notable for the heart of the winter. Yesterday in his radio broadcast, Roger Hill said we’ve had seven January thaws this season – that’s impressive. Perhaps ‘06-‘07 had something like this, since it had substantially less snow that we’ve had this season, but I didn’t monitor total liquid back then, so I can’t check my records for what fell as rain. The Greens have been working their usual magic to get us snow of course, but it seems like the last few systems have been getting stingier and stingier in terms of backside snow. We picked up almost a third of an inch of liquid today (0.32”), so I’ll update the event totals tomorrow morning.

[powderfreak]

Yeah, it felt like déjà vu, almost exactly the same experience that I reported Friday evening with that mixed system from the end of last week: leave Burlington toward evening, head into the mountains and it’s absolutely pouring rain in the valley. This time I couldn’t see the crystals in the raindrops since it was a few degrees warmer than Friday, but I’d checked the temperature up on Mansfield, saw that it was well below freezing, and knew that the mountains were getting hammered with snow. I can’t recall a time when we’ve had quite this long a parade of substantially mixed events during midwinter though. I can recall getting them stacked up one after another on the front or back end of the season when cold air is more limited, but this stretch seems notable for the heart of the winter. Yesterday in his radio broadcast, Roger Hill said we’ve had seven January thaws this season – that’s impressive. Perhaps ‘06-‘07 had something like this, since it had substantially less snow that we’ve had this season, but I didn’t monitor total liquid back then, so I can’t check my records for what fell as rain. The Greens have been working their usual magic to get us snow of course, but it seems like the last few systems have been getting stingier and stingier in terms of backside snow. We picked up almost a third of an inch of liquid today (0.32”), so I’ll update the event totals tomorrow morning.

Yeah this wouldn't be a bad winter so far if it weren't for the weekly rains. We have a snowpack and have had one for like 6 weeks, the mountain snowpack is a bit below normal but not too bad with 18-20" at 1,550ft and 40+ up at 3K and above. Everything is finally skiable though still some hazards as usual. We've been talking in Mountain Ops how each week is basically the same. We have 3 pretty darn good days of skiing each week, 2 decent days, and 2 days that are awful. Its been like that all month, without fail.

With that said, I was surprised at this latest burst of snow.... I looked out and thought it was foggy out but instead it was snowing moderately. Flakes are incredibly small so it looks like a fog... ratios are horrific as its like the snow variety of a heavy drizzle... but the Mountain Road is white again and the cars are taking on some accumulation now. We've dropped to 31F now so hopefully that stops the bleeding. (Edit: I just looked at the meso-map and most sites are still mid 30s, so it doesn't look like this 31F is here to stay. Will probably rebound after this band moves through and we lose the dynamic cooling).

Radar doesn't look all that good aside from this burst moving through (not really being reflected on radar out this way) but maybe we can get an inch over the next 8 hours or so if the upslope flow stays steady. Not much moisture but maybe passing snow showers and flurries tonight can whiten things up.

NYZ029-030-034-035-087-VTZ005-006-008-009-017-018-020445-

LAMOILLE VT-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ESSEX NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-

SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-

EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-

EASTERN ADDISON VT-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-

1046 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

.NOW...

AT 1035 PM A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS OBSERVED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM MORRISVILLE VERMONT TO SARANAC LAKE NEW YORK TO LAKE

ONTARIO...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL

MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL

CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS

THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

BRIEF MODERATE SNOW AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH

THESE SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO AROUND ONE MILE

OR LESS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO UP TO

ONE INCH.

Usually composite radar shows what's happening over here very well but this stuff must be so low topped that the beam isn't hitting it east of the Spine. The echos stop right at the ridgelines (and county lines) but its definitely snowing nicely to the east of the spine in that band as well.

[klw]

The cars have a dusting on them this morning.. Hopefully it is not frozen to them and the left over rain drops.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.40” L.E.

The gauge picked up 0.32 of liquid yesterday, and the precipitation eventually went over to frozen as the temperature dropped. I didn’t see last night’s frozen precipitation fall, but I heard some sleet or granular snow hitting the windows late in the evening. This morning there was 0.1” of refrozen material on the snowboard, comprised of 0.01” liquid, and the rain/snow gauge also caught the same 0.01” of liquid. Not surprisingly, the fluffy snow from the Sunday-Monday storm has been consolidated down onto the rest of the snowpack.

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 27.9 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

[OceanStWx]

Sort of getting backdoored this morning across NNE. Pretty clear boundary working southwest on visible satellite, and it had a wind shift with dropping temps at DAW and PSM in the last hour. Cold air continues to hang though.

[Snow Bow]

Sort of getting backdoored this morning across NNE. Pretty clear boundary working southwest on visible satellite, and it had a wind shift with dropping temps at DAW and PSM in the last hour. Cold air continues to hang though.

Haven't heard much talk of backdoor fronts this winter, actually I think this is the first time I've heard it since autumn. Looks like it's just north of Bangor. Sad this is the most interesting thing we have to talk about right now.

I'd like to see you shade my county pink at least once more this year.

[OceanStWx]

Haven't heard much talk of backdoor fronts this winter, actually I think this is the first time I've heard it since autumn. Looks like it's just north of Bangor. Sad this is the most interesting thing we have to talk about right now.

I'd like to see you shade my county pink at least once more this year.

Actually the boundary itself is roughly bisecting NH north to south then arcing out to just north of the Cape. Up by BGR you have the stratus deck erosion working southward.

[Snow Bow]

Actually the boundary itself is roughly bisecting NH north to south then arcing out to just north of the Cape. Up by BGR you have the stratus deck erosion working southward.

I think I see it now, looks right over my head. That would probably explain why it got sunny after being very dark most of the morning. I just glanced quickly before. Up to 37 already regardless, is this something that would keep the temps steady most of the day or could they drop?

[tamarack]

A few snow grains on the truck and in the air as I left home a bit before 7. Here in AUG the clouds broke between 8 and 9, but the low deck is back again, and the temp slid down to 24 last hr. My high yesterday was 27, and though I saw echoes passing over MBY much of the day, I only had 0.02" between 7A and 9P. Good thing, too, as the last little batch of ZR at 8P made for some nasty driving, worst on roads worn down to pavement by traffic. Snowcovered roads offered a bit better traction.

06z gfs gives AUG 0.00" precip over the next 8 days, and only dibs/dabs for d9-16. Doldrums (but no torch, either, so I can keep most/all of my 12" snowpack.)

[OceanStWx]

I think I see it now, looks right over my head. That would probably explain why it got sunny after being very dark most of the morning. I just glanced quickly before. Up to 37 already regardless, is this something that would keep the temps steady most of the day or could they drop?

I think more of a slight drop behind the boundary with a slower recovery during the afternoon is the most likely scenario. Either way not expecting much of the area to warm more than a few degrees today.

[powderfreak]

Well last night's snow must've shut off fairly quickly because there was only a light dusting out there when I woke up.... up at the ski resort there's around an inch of new at 1,500ft and 2" in the upper elevations. Smugglers Notch reporting 2" as well so there at least was a little something on the backside for the mountains. Could certainly use a little more... maybe 1-3" of fluff tomorrow from orographic snow showers in the afternoon/evening.

Snowing lightly here in the village now...these flakes are so lazy and fall so slowly I would be interested to know just how long it takes them to hit the surface out of the clouds. It takes them like a minute to fall 20 feet.

[skimore]

Well last night's snow must've shut off fairly quickly because there was only a light dusting out there when I woke up.... up at the ski resort there's around an inch of new at 1,500ft and 2" in the upper elevations. Smugglers Notch reporting 2" as well so there at least was a little something on the backside for the mountains. Could certainly use a little more... maybe 1-3" of fluff tomorrow from orographic snow showers in the afternoon/evening.

Snowing lightly here in the village now...these flakes are so lazy and fall so slowly I would be interested to know just how long it takes them to hit the surface out of the clouds. It takes them like a minute to fall 20 feet.

Whats the surface in the woods like under that 2"

[tamarack]

The folks at GYX are highlighting the weirdness (my word, not theirs; same for the boldface) of the current forecast in their AFD:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VERY QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH IN FACT...A 14 DAY CUMULATIVE

QPF OF ONLY A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH VIA THE GFS MODEL!!!! IF

VERIFIED...THAT'S A VERY RARE/QUIET PATTERN FORM THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.

IN THE DAILIES...THE DRY PATTERN IS EVIDENT BY THE

REPETITIOUS...BENIGN FORECAST.

[powderfreak]

Whats the surface in the woods like under that 2"

Its an edge-able smooth surface that's not glare ice like the past thaw. Skiing today was awesome... so much better than expected and there was more like 3-4" up high of fresh, dense snow. I skied the woods all afternoon long. I'm still shocked at how good that was. The expert bump runs were smooth, filled in with dense snow. Amazing what dense, graupel filled snow does to the ski conditions. If it were light fluffy powder today would've been different but it wasn't... it was probably 8:1 or 10:1 ratio snow, not 40:1 fluff.

Mansfield pulls off another awesome recovery. It still boggles my mind how much snow the upper elevations on that mountain get.

[Ginx snewx]

The folks at GYX are highlighting the weirdness (my word, not theirs; same for the boldface) of the current forecast in their AFD:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VERY QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH IN FACT...A 14 DAY CUMULATIVE

QPF OF ONLY A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH VIA THE GFS MODEL!!!! IF

VERIFIED...THAT'S A VERY RARE/QUIET PATTERN FORM THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.

IN THE DAILIES...THE DRY PATTERN IS EVIDENT BY THE

REPETITIOUS...BENIGN FORECAST.

Good thing the ENS do not agree, 2 120 hr precip maps

[skimore]

Well last night's snow must've shut off fairly quickly because there was only a light dusting out there when I woke up.... up at the ski resort there's around an inch of new at 1,500ft and 2" in the upper elevations. Smugglers Notch reporting 2" as well so there at least was a little something on the backside for the mountains. Could certainly use a little more... maybe 1-3" of fluff tomorrow from orographic snow showers in the afternoon/evening.

Snowing lightly here in the village now...these flakes are so lazy and fall so slowly I would be interested to know just how long it takes them to hit the surface out of the clouds. It takes them like a minute to fall 20 feet.

Thanks for the update. May head up that way this weekend

[powderfreak]

Nickel and dime winter continues... another 1-3" coming tomorrow afternoon and night.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS

A DUSTING TO 2" SNOW ACCUM MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE 21Z FRI THRU 12Z

SAT PERIOD WITH POPS CURRENTLY IN THE 40-70 PERCENT RANGE. UP TO 3"

SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NRN GREENS...AIDED BY MAX IN OROGRAPHIC ASCENT

AND HIGH SNOW RATIOS APPROACHING 20:1.

[MBRI]

Sat trip to hit the Front 4 is looking fine.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Yeah skiing looks great this weekend for the northern greens and all of NNE. Took a ride up towards Island Pond,VT this afternoon to scope out some snow mobiling trails, and went through areas between 2,200-2,700ft in Newark and East Haven,VT. Legit snow mobile heaven up there. No people, hundreds of trails. It's awesome if you want some peace and quiet. Depths up there ranged from 10" closer to 2,000ft and up to 17" near 2,700ft. On the descent down to 1,100ft here at the college it was quite sad, going from a solid 15" down to 3-4" in Lyndon proper (700ft) and back up to 5-6" here at the school. As for my adventure, it was definitely a success.

[powderfreak]

About a half-inch of the most sparkling dust you can imagine. The snow surface has almost that hoar frost look to it but its just very well defined dendrites.

11F and snowing at 1,500ft. Some weak moisture is moving into the Spine this morning and I see BTV has been reporting -SN, too.

[powderfreak]

I wasn't working yesterday but the general opinion is the 1-2" we reported was a tad low. I found just over 3" on my 3,000ft snow board and for once the Mansfield co-op seems to be at least in the ballpark with 2.5" of new snow. Snow depth increased by 3" though so snowfall was likely 3-3.5" like I found on the snow board. Very dense stuff too, no more than 10:1 ratio.

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
610 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012
STATION			PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT		 SNOW
			   24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER	 NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD	 0.45	35   8   8				2.5  43

Now have a very solid 40"+ pack above 3,000ft.

Solid light snow now as of 7am as the Mansfield massif is engulfed in the snow cloud.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.01” L.E.

There was a surprise (to me) 1.0 inches of snow on the snowboard this morning, finally pushing the season’s snowfall total past the 70” mark that wasn’t quite reached by the end of January. Once I got outside to have a look at the accumulation and take my snow cores, I knew the density was going to come in well under that 4-5% H2O range. Indeed, the snow was down around 1% H2O, which is about as low a density as I’ll typically see during the season; that’s 99% air.

I didn’t think that we’d get into new snow until later today, but in their recent forecast discussions, the BTV NWS says that the combination of northwest flow and moisture trapped under the inversion is giving us the fluff. The radar seemed to be just catching that moisture stacked up along the west slopes of the Northern Greens, and there is another area of precipitation building in from the northwest:

Perhaps the next impulses of moisture will lead to some of the snowfall that the NWS mentions in their latest forecast discussion synopsis:

.SYNOPSIS...

A PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

I can see here on the UVM campus that Burlington similarly picked up some of this very fluffy champagne, although it’s substantially less than an inch.

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 100.0

Snow Density: 1.0% H2O

Temperature: 13.3 F

Sky: Light Snow (10-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

[powderfreak]

It is snowing out of blue skies right now... the nearest cloud is like a mile away way up on the ridgeline and it looks incredibly shallow, just hanging to the ridge like a fog.

However we are getting beautiful dendrites that are literally falling out of clear skies. I'll try to illustrate with a photo but not sure I can capture this effect. Pretty darn cool. These flakes are not coming from the ridgeline, its like they are developing out of nowhere, very low in the atmosphere.

[J.Spin]

Snowing lightly here in the village now...these flakes are so lazy and fall so slowly I would be interested to know just how long it takes them to hit the surface out of the clouds. It takes them like a minute to fall 20 feet.

Yeah, a good example of the sort of magical atmospheric conditions it takes to get those accumulations of 100 to 1 snow; even snowflakes falling at more typical velocities would have enough kinetic energy to compress such delicate stacks of dendrites. It’s too bad I didn’t have time to get some pictures this morning – I’ll have to try to get some shots with the individual flakes like that one you posted a little while back.

Its an edge-able smooth surface that's not glare ice like the past thaw. Skiing today was awesome... so much better than expected and there was more like 3-4" up high of fresh, dense snow. I skied the woods all afternoon long. I'm still shocked at how good that was. The expert bump runs were smooth, filled in with dense snow. Amazing what dense, graupel filled snow does to the ski conditions. If it were light fluffy powder today would've been different but it wasn't... it was probably 8:1 or 10:1 ratio snow, not 40:1 fluff.

Mansfield pulls off another awesome recovery. It still boggles my mind how much snow the upper elevations on that mountain get.

That’s great to hear PF; Mansfield has been blowing my mind the past few weeks with its ability to offer up not just acceptable, but pretty darned good conditions even by Northern Vermont standards. The rounds of fluff today/tonight can only help, even if liquid equivalent isn’t all that prodigious. The slopes are really primed and ready with that well substantiated base and a decent surface – if we can get into a train of storm cycles without the continuous warm air intrusions, conditions are really going to go off.

[Skivt2]

Apparently huge differences this year between the Killington region and Stowe. No one is skiing woods at Killington this year. Even the natural snow trails are not all skiable. Snowmaking trails are mostly bullet proof. We need snow desperately. The skiing is still enjoyable as the mountain is grooming and touching up trails as they become too icy but some of the steeper snowmaking trails have not been blown open yet this year and are not skiable on the natural snow that is on them. Because the base is bullet proof all it will take is a major snowstorm and everything will open and be phenomenal. Watching and waiting with fingers crossed.

[powderfreak]

Yeah, a good example of the sort of magical atmospheric conditions it takes to get those accumulations of 100 to 1 snow; even snowflakes falling at more typical velocities would have enough kinetic energy to compress such delicate stacks of dendrites. It’s too bad I didn’t have time to get some pictures this morning – I’ll have to try to get some shots with the individual flakes like that one you posted a little while back.

That’s great to hear PF; Mansfield has been blowing my mind the past few weeks with its ability to offer up not just acceptable, but pretty darned good conditions even by Northern Vermont standards. The rounds of fluff today/tonight can only help, even if liquid equivalent isn’t all that prodigious. The slopes are really primed and ready with that well substantiated base and a decent surface – if we can get into a train of storm cycles without the continuous warm air intrusions, conditions are really going to go off.

Yeah these flakes at the mountain this morning are probably similar, maybe a bit smaller than what you were seeing just as this is a low moisture, more western slope little snow shower event this morning. We've got 0.5" here but its no surprise you had 1" and so did Bolton and Smuggs. Inversion level is just above ridgetop so we are getting some spillover but you can tell its drying out as it moves east of the Mansfield ridge.

You're bolded part could not be more correct. Every time we sit through an operations meeting and talk about how much we think conditions the next day will be atrocious, we come in the next morning to fantastic conditions. The last 7 days have seen 20" of snowfall at 3,000ft so that certainly helps...27" in the last 9 days! I've heard its the same at Smuggs and Bolton. A friend who skied here one day and Jay the next thought that the skiing in this region of the Greens was a bit better as Jay was quite wind affected. Luckily we've been avoiding the 50-60mph winds that ruin powder snow surfaces... usually upslope comes with high winds but this year its been different. I can count the wind hold days on one hand when some years it seems to be 3 days per week.

And looking into the weekend, this pattern is expected to continue. "GPetrics" alerted me to the fact that the BTV WRF is showing around 0.5" of QPF over the next 36 hours here at Mansfield. Same region of Bolton-Mansfield-Smuggs could do a nice surprise for tomorrow morning with upslope.

QPF through 6z tonight...

And QPF after 6z... snow ends around mid morning.