red Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I have a noob radar question ... BGR has been clear on the radar for over 2 hrs yet its still raining lightly here in Glenburn (8 miles outside BGR). I know that the radar won't pick up some low lvl stuff etc but this winter I recall Tamrack saying something about the radar showing what was 1500 ft overhead or something. That may be way off but at the time the radar had a heavy snow band well past me and we were getting pounded, and now I'm seeing something similar with the rain. My question is how does the nearest radar being in CAR affect the real weather in BGR? I have always been perplexed by this (having grown up on LI with a radar just about overhead) and how can you estimate where the echoes really are. any input? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 We picked up 0.18” of liquid here between a quick downpour from yesterday and this morning’s light rain and upslope-style mist. That was actually the first liquid in the gauge here for the month of August, and the first in 8 days; the longest precipitation-free stretch in a while as far as I can remember. It had definitely been a good long window to enable the lawn to dry for easier cutting. These past couple of days have indeed seemed rather humid, so it’s certainly one of those seasons where some summery humidity is still making its presence known for the first part of August. Our point forecast suggests we’ll be back to 70s F highs and 50s F lows as we move through the week though. I didn't look at a radar closely this morning but I was thinking the same thing... the small droplets and misty light rain that was rolling through definitely seemed like upslope. I love how there is definitely a different type of rain when it is synoptic or convective verses upslope/meso-scale terrain induced. You can tell the water droplets are formed very low in the atmosphere and they are never very big at all. Its like a glorified drizzle and relatively low QPF...sometimes with upslope rain you don't even really know its raining until you look in the puddles and see the telltale ripples/splash. But you know in the winter that low QPF can still produce solid snow accumulations thanks to very high ratios. Temps look comfortable this week and our point and click here in Stowe village is even suggesting upper 40s at night later this week. I'm looking forward to Tuesday at the top of the mountain when the high at 3,300ft is "near 60" under sunny skies... means it isn't leaving the mid to upper 50s at the top Gondola terminal. Visibility should be fantastic because that's gotta be some cool, dry air if its mostly sunny and only in the 50s up high. By Thursday the high at 4,000ft is looking to be near 50F. Not long before the summits start seeing highs in the 40s. I've hit that point where I am certainly ready to move things along and can't wait for those leaves to start changing... winter can't come soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Awesome pics, borderwx... I love the Maine coastline because of how "northern" it feels. Spruce and fir forests right to the beach. Lets go Red Sox! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I have a noob radar question ... BGR has been clear on the radar for over 2 hrs yet its still raining lightly here in Glenburn (8 miles outside BGR). I know that the radar won't pick up some low lvl stuff etc but this winter I recall Tamrack saying something about the radar showing what was 1500 ft overhead or something. That may be way off but at the time the radar had a heavy snow band well past me and we were getting pounded, and now I'm seeing something similar with the rain. My question is how does the nearest radar being in CAR affect the real weather in BGR? I have always been perplexed by this (having grown up on LI with a radar just about overhead) and how can you estimate where the echoes really are. any input? Not up on the precise science (not the knowledge needed in forestry) but, wx radar energy is straight line rather than following the curvature of the earth. Not a serious factor within 20-30 miles of the dome, but increasingly important with added distance. Given BGR's distance from radar installations (+/- 140 miles from CAR/100 miles from GYX), anything much under a mile off the ground becomes invisible - literally "under the radar". This makes low level origin precip unlikely/impossible to see. Also, snowflakes may take 15-30 minutes (I'm sort of guessing here) to descend from 5,000', and light RA isn't all that much faster, thus precip will continue at radar-distant locations for quite a while after the echoes appear to have passed overhead. Got 0.15" yesterday, another in a long series of cloudy/rainy days this summer with minor precip IMBY. I've had measureable precip 4 of 7 days this month (radar suggests it's now 5 of 8) with just over 1/2" total. June-July precip was about 75% of my avg, but both months had an abundance of days with rain. My most recent day with 1"+ was in mid May, while points all around have had multiple heavy rains and svr storms. If it's going to be rainy, it ought to produce some water. rants are fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 Well, just a little over 1/10th for the weekend, cumulative. That ain't gon' cut it. Pisses me off when it's muggy and tropical as all hell and we can't even get a good shower out of it. It'll come......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 nothing here. headed for the hills this morning for the first proper hike. nice overcast with occasional mister machine fog till 9:30, once the sun popped it was, uhh, moist would be one way to describe it, cool breeze comin in now couple more pics, just cause its the end of vacation back to the green mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Very dry weather continues. Got .20" 2 nights ago but the last substancial rain was 13 days ago when I had over an inch in a thunderstorm. Maybe things will finally change tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbob Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 3rd shower today rolling through right now. Rain gauge has over an inch and a half from the last few days. Lawn is starting to look green again and grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 After some early morning light rain, the day started off with low ceilings and fog. When I drove up to 3,700ft it was downright damp and chilly at 8am... mid 50s and dense fog (up in the cloud deck). We gradually cleared out though as the day went on as steady 20-25mph NW winds brought in drier air. High temp on our instrument was 60F. Up in the clouds... Same view as above, but with the cloud deck lifting and breaking apart. And finally all clear as drier air moves in. One last scenic... the cloud ceiling is about 100 vertical feet above my location in this picture. Night and day difference in visibility with a small change in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 So PF do we remove the picnic tables before winter or are they just part of the new "summit jib park"....at least until they get buried. PF and JSpin,....what do you remember about 2007-2008 weather wise...it was a messy one right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 So PF do we remove the picnic tables before winter or are they just part of the new "summit jib park"....at least until they get buried. PF and JSpin,....what do you remember about 2007-2008 weather wise...it was a messy one right? The thing that immediately jumps out for me with regard to the winter of 2007-2008 is that at our location it was the snowiest winter of the past five that we have lived here, and the only one in which we broke the 200” barrier for snowfall. The chart below has the monthly breakdown for snow at our location in 2007-2008. It started with a good November, and that was followed up by a great December. The things that kept it from going great wall to wall were a bit of a slow January, and a dud of an April. In terms of “messy”, the theme that I recall was that we did have a good number of mixed precipitation events, but that was in large part a function of being right in the pipe (storm track) and just getting so many storms – 53 accumulating events at our location. Just like with the snowfall, that’s the highest total in the past five seasons. With 120.2” of snow, the 2007-2008 season was really a biggie for snowfall in BTV. It ranks #5 on that BTV list of 127 snowfall seasons, and it was actually #4 until 2010-2011 bumped it down. It’s interesting to note that it was a great snowfall season for the valleys, but for the mountains, it wasn’t anything overly special; it was basically about average. In a previous post I included a table with the snowfall at Bolton for the past five seasons as a representative look at how things went in the Northern Greens, and I’ve added that in again below. The 2007-2008 season came in right where 2010-2011 did, at 5.8% above average for snowfall. Really the most remarkable snowfall season of the past five was 2009-2010, but unfortunately it was notable for its low snowfall So even though the season certainly wasn’t devoid of mixed precipitation, the mixed storms didn’t seem like that big a deal because there was generally another dump right around the corner to take care of any surface issues on the slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 So PF do we remove the picnic tables before winter or are they just part of the new "summit jib park"....at least until they get buried. PF and JSpin,....what do you remember about 2007-2008 weather wise...it was a messy one right? They just get moved to under the Cliff House deck. Now, on what date does the first inch of snow accumulate on the elevated wood surface of the picnic tables? And I remember 2007-2008 as being very snowy on the mountain... we were up near like 360" for snowfall. There were plenty of mixed precip events I think, but it didn't matter because it would just snow some more after that. Near constant moisture stream into the area from December through February. I just remember we never went more than like 3 days without some precipitation or snowfall event. December was awesome, even in the CPV. There was one good sized storm in December that I remember getting 15" at BTV, and IIRC, BTV had a very snowy winter with like 120-ish inches. EDIT: Should've read J.Spin's post first, he covered it quite well. I'll add that there was definitely a north-south gradient to snowfall with epic, record breaking snows up in Ontario and Quebec, tapering down to near average in the central/northern Greens. I think that as you went north, each resort along the spine picked up more than the mountain south of it. Jay was the winner in that type of gradient with 400" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 Well, actually five straight mornings where I've had measureable rainfall in the bucket from the day/night prior: 8/6 0.02" 8/7 0.07" 8/8 0.03" 8/9 0.04" 8/10 0.56" Finally a good soaker starting last evening and going, off and on, through the night last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I'll add that there was definitely a north-south gradient to snowfall with epic, record breaking snows up in Ontario and Quebec, tapering down to near average in the central/northern Greens. I think that as you went north, each resort along the spine picked up more than the mountain south of it. Jay was the winner in that type of gradient with 400" or so. That’s a great point about the gradient PF. That was the year when things were epic north of the border, and using your numbers, one can see how that went as one moved northward in the Greens, with Bolton at +5.8%, Stowe at +8.1%, and Jay Peak at +12.7%. I’m happy that we haven’t had any recent seasons grossly below average aside from ’09-’10, so there’s plenty to be thankful for, but it would still be fun to throw in a biggie like ’00-’01 again at some point. It seems like much of the western U.S. had one of those last season - so many areas that were +30% to +80%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Another "Chinese water torture" rain event. For 2 days gfs had 1.5" or so progged for my area, and GYX noted that the models were in agreement. First caution was the radar on the 6 PM news yest - big area of precip upstream, but it was sort of dividing into N and S lobes and the location of the division lowered my optimism. Then Gray's AFD noted a model change to one with a significant dryslot, and gfs 18z dropped qpf to 0.20" for the overnight/morning rain. As it turns out, even that was overly generous, as this "significant rain event" totalled 0.02" for my garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 That’s a great point about the gradient PF. That was the year when things were epic north of the border, and using your numbers, one can see how that went as one moved northward in the Greens, with Bolton at +5.8%, Stowe at +8.1%, and Jay Peak at +12.7%. I’m happy that we haven’t had any recent seasons grossly below average aside from ’09-’10, so there’s plenty to be thankful for, but it would still be fun to throw in a biggie like ’00-’01 again at some point. It seems like much of the western U.S. had one of those last season - so many areas that were +30% to +80%! Good info Jspin and PF. (I'm beginning to work on a winter outlook and I'd love to get your info and thoughts for the site - you know what I mean). I think I remeber 2007-2008 as being very bad to PHL and NYC...while being positive for points north. If I'm not mistaken...the ADK didn't do very well in this season and I think the greens did very well on the upslope flows. Perhaps this has to do with the primary storm centers hammering Quebec and then spinning down cyclonicly all their juicy air into the spine. Maybe I'll waste some time on the NARR @ PSU ewall and see what we see. I'll use J-Spin's dates and put something together. Regardless I feel like 07-08 is the best analogy right now. As to last night- it dumped rain in south burlington. We needed it. I swear the corn grew at least 6 inches this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Another "Chinese water torture" rain event. For 2 days gfs had 1.5" or so progged for my area, and GYX noted that the models were in agreement. First caution was the radar on the 6 PM news yest - big area of precip upstream, but it was sort of dividing into N and S lobes and the location of the division lowered my optimism. Then Gray's AFD noted a model change to one with a significant dryslot, and gfs 18z dropped qpf to 0.20" for the overnight/morning rain. As it turns out, even that was overly generous, as this "significant rain event" totalled 0.02" for my garden. You've been receiving the shaft frequently this summer. I had just over half an inch overnight, light rain falling here at the Portland office currently. A very early May-type day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Regardless I feel like 07-08 is the best analogy right now. Maine got hammered that year. Driving over to Rangely you couldn't see first floor windows on any of the homes through dixville notch. Believe that was the beginning of the demise of the Maine deer herd. nice to see some rain this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Maine got hammered that year. Driving over to Rangely you couldn't see first floor windows on any of the homes through dixville notch. Believe that was the beginning of the demise of the Maine deer herd. nice to see some rain this morning It was a record year for snow for a lot of folks here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Maine got hammered that year. Driving over to Rangely you couldn't see first floor windows on any of the homes through dixville notch. Believe that was the beginning of the demise of the Maine deer herd. nice to see some rain this morning Not the beginning (I'd name the 1970s-early '80s budworm epidemic and timber harvest reactions to it as the trigger) but certainly a huge accelerant, and 08-09 was no help - less snow but enough, and lots colder. The 2009 legal deer kill in the northern 1/4 of the state was something like 360, while in 1990 it was 2,800+. About 1/3 of that drop came in the final two years (the only 2 post 07-08) of the 20 registration-year span. Deer have always been more spread out in the north, with southern counties having 4-5X the "tags filled per unit area". However, the 1990 number comes to about 1 deer tagged per 3 sq.mi.; 2009 is closer to 1 per 23 sq.mi. I haven't seen the 2010 numbers, but I doubt they're any better. Just had a shower here in AUG, maybe 0.05" or so, enough to make some puddles on the pavement. Current echoes suggest MBY may be getting a similar modest shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 about to get a little wet in BTV right now. line of storms moving right across the lake. I could watch this all day. Rain shadow totally obsured ADK. BTV will be wet in about 2 minutes. My office window faces the lake. I'm on battery street. This is not going to bode well for getting work done when weather is going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 about to get a little wet in BTV right now. line of storms moving right across the lake. I could watch this all day. Rain shadow totally obsured ADK. BTV will be wet in about 2 minutes. My office window faces the lake. I'm on battery street. This is not going to bode well for getting work done when weather is going off. Haha... when I worked at the Hilton Hotel on Battery Street during college I was completely useless when any weather was approaching from the 'Dacks. Its just too cool of a view, especially from the top floor of the hotel when you can see like 3 counties up and and down the lake. Wait till you see that first WINDEX snow squall line or lake effect snow showers from the Great Lakes working their way across the lake. The breakwater out in Burlington Bay will disappear from view and you won't even have seen your first flake on the shore... then it literally comes in like a wall with near zero visibility almost instantly. The squall line today has headed south of us here in Stowe... just some --RN on the northern edge of it. Can hear some low rumbles of thunder off to the southwest though. Camels Hump to Mount Ellen area is getting crushed... there's gotta be some small hailers in there somewhere...especially that southern tip of the storm on RT 7 near Middlebury where there are some 70+ dbz briefly popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 oh f*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Just went through one of those "purple" cells moving through the lakes region. Severest cell went right over me with very heavy rain and frequent lightning but no wind and no hail. Quick .70" caused a bit of flash flooding and wash out on my dirt road. Last nights .80 and today's .70 brings a nice, needed 1.50"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Just some nice rain here. Panic cancel. Kinda enraged now because the lightning was so infrequent that I got bored and went into the kitchen for a snack. Naturally, a strike then landed close, almost too close. Quite rare that I hear the faint clicking sound before the crash. Even made the lights flicker. Really wish I had been on the deck to enjoy the full slam from the thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Just some nice rain here. Panic cancel. Kinda enraged now because the lightning was so infrequent that I got bored and went into the kitchen for a snack. Naturally, a strike then landed close, almost too close. Quite rare that I hear the faint clicking sound before the crash. Even made the lights flicker. Really wish I had been on the deck to enjoy the full slam from the thunder. You've had some pretty good "luck" in getting thunderstorm activity in your neck of the woods this summer haven't you? I've barely had one decent storm all summer and that was mostly heavy rain and a few claps of thunder here and there. I was up around Winnipesaukee today earlier and must have gone though before that came by. I was looking for your tropical garden while going through weirs beech thought I could kind of see it from the road but wasn't sure enough to say so. If I remember right its the Bay Top Motel right? While I was up there Dendrite popped into my head too because I know he lives somewhere around the lake in Northfield and noticed I haven't seen any posts from him lately. Anyone heard from him? I know his Father had that operation a few weeks back and was hoping everything went well with that. Probably just on vacation or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 You've had some pretty good "luck" in getting thunderstorm activity in your neck of the woods this summer haven't you? I've barely had one decent storm all summer and that was mostly heavy rain and a few claps of thunder here and there. I was up around Winnipesaukee today earlier and must have gone though before that came by. I was looking for your tropical garden while going through weirs beech thought I could kind of see it from the road but wasn't sure enough to say so. If I remember right its the Bay Top Motel right? While I was up there Dendrite popped into my head too because I know he lives somewhere around the lake in Northfield and noticed I haven't seen any posts from him lately. Anyone heard from him? I know his Father had that operation a few weeks back and was hoping everything went well with that. Probably just on vacation or something. Actually not really, I was missed more times than I can count right up until the July 26 hailpocalypse. I've had a slight change of luck lately, though. Seems I'm somehow doing better than some. A hit or miss summer indeed. Sounds like you did catch a glimpse of my tropical garden. It's not at all impressive from the road since you only see the rather barren looking backside, though the banana plants stick up. They're still pretty shredded but they all have 2-3 big new perfect leaves. I'm pretty happy with how well it has bounced back over the past 17 days, though most of my flower gardens are still struggling to regrow. Feel free to stop by if you're in the area and take a peek if curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 We had a nice storm roll through Peacham about 6 pm last night. A good downpour with a little pea size hail in the mix. Nothing too crazy but some more good rain for the garden. The air felt really nice for my run this morning. There was actually a bit of a chill in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Chilly-willy this morning. Down to 50F for a low. Couldn't squeak out an upper 40s bure purty darn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Chilly-willy this morning. Down to 50F for a low. Couldn't squeak out an upper 40s bure purty darn close. Same here ... nearby stations showing 50 or 51F. First day in a long while I put on something with long sleeves for the drive to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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