dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 The long lake ice out contest has started at school. Basically have to guess the date the last ice leaves the lake. Been a cold winter. Latest date was 1886 on May 6. Other notable dates included last year on march 20. I said april 30th at 6pm. I boated on long lake for quite a few years as i had a boat slip at Naples Marina, The ice will be out before the 30th, 18-24th somewhere in there is more likely the latest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The long lake ice out contest has started at school. Basically have to guess the date the last ice leaves the lake. Been a cold winter. Latest date was 1886 on May 6. Other notable dates included last year on march 20. I said april 30th at 6pm. Bold guess! I think you'll bust late by 10-12 days. Too much snow and too little sustained cold to allow the 30"+ layer of solid (not frozen slush) ice to freeze. A huge dump Friday might advance ice-out, both by submerging it and by bringing a more copious runoff. The Maine COOP snow survey puts most of the state in the 25-75 percentile (or "about normal") historic range, and adding 1"+ on 4/1 could bump it into the top quartile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Bold guess! I think you'll bust late by 10-12 days. Too much snow and too little sustained cold to allow the 30"+ layer of solid (not frozen slush) ice to freeze. A huge dump Friday might advance ice-out, both by submerging it and by bringing a more copious runoff. The Maine COOP snow survey puts most of the state in the 25-75 percentile (or "about normal") historic range, and adding 1"+ on 4/1 could bump it into the top quartile. I went for a very late ice out date for Joe's Pond in Danville, VT. I went for May 6 in the afternoon which would tie for the latest date in the twenty days that they have been doing the competition. My theory was that we did not have an established snowpack here until New Year's which should have gotten the ice nicely formed, we have avoided any prolonged warmups, and the discussions I have seen for april have talked about it being a colder than average month. We'll see how close I come. http://www.joespondvermont.com/iceout.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 A huge dump Friday might advance ice-out, both by submerging it and by bringing a more copious runoff. Good call, man. I've seen that sort of thing on the CT River around here. The river will be iced over and then a foot of snow comes along and pushes the ice down a bit with water coming up and over the ice at the edges and saturating the snow. Lot-a-weight, right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Good call, man. I've seen that sort of thing on the CT River around here. The river will be iced over and then a foot of snow comes along and pushes the ice down a bit with water coming up and over the ice at the edges and saturating the snow. Lot-a-weight, right there. Not going to be good for puddles around the green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE PRETTY COLD THURSDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN VALLEYS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK. INITIAL AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS ONE WILL MISS US...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA. MODELS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE YESTERDAY ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOWS...BUT HAVE COME MORE IN LINE TODAY. THE GFS... CANADIAN... AND ECMWF MODELS TRACK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CAPE COD AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TRACK WOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE AS MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE COLD AIR. THE NAM MODEL PROVIDES A MUCH DIFFERENT PICTURE BY EMPHASIZING THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WHICH TRACKS WELL OUT TO SEA...AND NEVER REALLY DEVELOPING A NEW SURFACE LOW WITH THE EJECTION OF THE MAIN TROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE DECIDED TO DOWNPLAY THE NAM SOLUTION AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY IS MORE LIKELY. INTERESTINGLY... A LOOK AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES REVEALS THAT 10 OF THE 12 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN THE OPERATIONAL VERSION. THIS INDICATES THAT THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH MOSTLY SNOW IS VERY LIKELY...HOWEVER THE TRACK MAY BE TOO FAR EAST TO PROVIDE MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL. HAVE DECIDED TO BASE THIS FORECAST PRIMARILY ON THE SOLUTIONS SHOWN BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IN THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT PRECISE SNOWFALL TOTALS...CURRENT FORECASTS WOULD INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...AMOUNTS WOULD BE LESS AS PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AREAWIDE...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE COAST...LIMITING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRESH SNOW COVER MAY LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S. NEXT STORM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH MOST OF OUR AREA REMAINING IN THE COLD AIR. STILL WAY TO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE...BUT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SNOWFALL EVENT IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 BTV AFD joins in http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR AHEAVY WET SNOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN OFEASTERN/CENTRAL VT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL...LARGE SCALEPATTERN FEATURES DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERNCONUS...A PATTERN WE HAVE WITNESS MOST OF THE WINTER...ALONG WITHNUMEROUS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT.FIRST...S/W AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTICCOAST THURSDAY...WHILE POTENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGS INTO THESE CONUS LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. THIS WL HELP TO ENHANCE SFC LOWPRES NEAR CAPE HATTERAS ON THURS NIGHT...WHICH WL TRACK TWD CAPECOD ON FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP AND NEGATIVELY CLOSED5H/7H CIRCULATION WL HELP TO ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTOOUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA. MEANWHILE...DEPARTING ANTICYCLONICCIRCULATION ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL KEEP LLVL NORTHERLY FLW ACRSOUR CWA AND THICKNESS VALUES JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MAINLY SNOWEVENT ACRS THE MTNS AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE VALLEYS.THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS AND 12Z GEM ALL SHOW DEVELOPING MID/UPPERLVL TROF BECMG QUICKLY CLOSED OFF...WHILE THE SFC LOW PRES TRACKSFROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SAT. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED5H/7H CIRCULATIONS TRACK FROM EASTERN PA INTO SNE BY 00ZSAT...WITH A VERY TIGHT AND SMALL CIRCULATION...RESULTING IN SOMEUNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF QPF ADVECTING BACK INTO OUR WESTERNCWA. THE OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANTPRECIP EVENT...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL VT. MID/UPPER LVLTHERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST ALL SNOW...BUT GIVEN HIGH SUN ANGLE...BL TEMPS WL WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAYTIME HRS TO LIMITACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. BEST POTENTIALFOR A HEAVY WET SNOWFALL EVENT WL BE ACRS THE MTNS OFCENTRAL/EASTERN AND NORTHERN VT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. APLOWABLE SNOWFALL WL BE LIKELY FOR THE CPV AND WESTERN DACKS BASED ONCRNT FCST BY LATE SATURDAY. 925MB TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...ALONGWITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -6C AND -8C WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ONLYSUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U20S MTNS TO MID 30S VALLEYS...WHICH IS 5 TO8 DEGREES BLW THE GUIDANCE. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPS WL WARMSLIGHT...BUT GIVEN FRESH SNOW PACK AND NORTHERLY FLW...WL CUTGUIDANCE BY ANOTHER 4 TO 8 DEGREES...BUT KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS NEARMACHINE NUMBERS L/M20S MTNS TO NEAR 30 VALLEYS. WL UPDATE HWO WITHOUR LATEST THINKING ON THIS POTENTIAL LATE SEASON WINTER STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH MOST OF OUR AREA REMAINING IN THE COLD AIR. STILL WAY TO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE...BUT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SNOWFALL EVENT IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && First off, Kudos to GYX for some of the AFDs they've been putting out over the past month or two. In the past that AFD would've been a paragraph long with a line in there somewhere that says, "Models indicate low pressure system nearby on Friday. Will call it chance of snow/rain lower elevations and snow mtns" ...and that would be their entire discussion on the Friday storm, lol. Anyway, the next event is already starting to look very intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The long lake ice out contest has started at school. Basically have to guess the date the last ice leaves the lake. Been a cold winter. Latest date was 1886 on May 6. Other notable dates included last year on march 20. I said april 30th at 6pm. I boated on long lake for quite a few years as i had a boat slip at Naples Marina, The ice will be out before the 30th, 18-24th somewhere in there is more likely the latest.. Love the Long Lake - Sebago Lake area. We've been camping at Sebago Lake State Park several times. Great sandy beach at the park. i believe my son was conceived in a tent at Sebago Lake in 2003 I've never really been over there in winter though. I've always thought it would be a good area to snowmobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Love the Long Lake - Sebago Lake area. We've been camping at Sebago Lake State Park several times. Great sandy beach at the park. i believe my son was conceived in a tent at Sebago Lake in 2003 I've never really been over there in winter though. I've always thought it would be a good area to snowmobile. It is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 First off, Kudos to GYX for some of the AFDs they've been putting out over the past month or two. In the past that AFD would've been a paragraph long with a line in there somewhere that says, "Models indicate low pressure system nearby on Friday. Will call it chance of snow/rain lower elevations and snow mtns" ...and that would be their entire discussion on the Friday storm, lol. Anyway, the next event is already starting to look very intriguing. Euro has similar but its a little further south then the GFS at the moment, But i had mentioned it in the other thread but it got buried pretty quick with the friday event stuff...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It is... Do they do a good job grooming etc.? Sorry for the OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 First off, Kudos to GYX for some of the AFDs they've been putting out over the past month or two. In the past that AFD would've been a paragraph long with a line in there somewhere that says, "Models indicate low pressure system nearby on Friday. Will call it chance of snow/rain lower elevations and snow mtns" ...and that would be their entire discussion on the Friday storm, lol. I thought the same thing this morning when I read the overnight AFD. It seems as soon as Ekster got there they stepped up their game. Big props to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro has similar but its a little further south then the GFS at the moment, But i had mentioned it in the other thread but it got buried pretty quick with the friday event stuff...... If I somehow scrape together 100" for this season I'll soil myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Agreed on the GYX discos being good reads these days. Not going to be good for puddles around the green. Hey, welcome back. Senior spring! I can just imagine the long faces around campus on Friday as it's ripping snow out. Can't wait. Not much left here in town as you can see but out at the house, it's still 100% coverage & 2' deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro has similar but its a little further south then the GFS at the moment, But i had mentioned it in the other thread but it got buried pretty quick with the friday event stuff...... Oh that's good to hear. I looked at the GFS ensembles and they took it north up the St. Lawrence River Valley towards Montreal, which would mean rainstorm for everyone. Glad to hear the EURO is south of the OP GFS... obviously we don't even know what's going to happen Friday so looking at next week is useless right now, but nice to have another threat possibly in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Do they do a good job grooming etc.? Sorry for the OT Yes they do, That whole area has some good clubs up there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 If I somehow scrape together 100" for this season I'll soil myself. You are going to need a lot of help to get there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Agreed on the GYX discos being good reads these days. Hey, welcome back. Senior spring! I can just imagine the long faces around campus on Friday as it's ripping snow out. Can't wait. Not much left here in town as you can see but out at the house, it's still 100% coverage & 2' deep. Much better wuth Eck being there, His AFD's are awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro has similar but its a little further south then the GFS at the moment, But i had mentioned it in the other thread but it got buried pretty quick with the friday event stuff...... As did mine. Verbatim, the 12z gfs would be 6-8" IMBY next week (and 10"+ for Friday.) Improbable, but could this be 2007 redux? (maybe without the Patriots' Day bowling ball.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Agreed on the GYX discos being good reads these days. Hey, welcome back. Senior spring! I can just imagine the long faces around campus on Friday as it's ripping snow out. Can't wait. Not much left here in town as you can see but out at the house, it's still 100% coverage & 2' deep. All I know is the mere mention of snow in my forecast last night brought out the long faces... Now that we have two opportunities on the board, the faces might reach the ground. On the flight to KLEB, I saw that there was better coverage outside of H-Town... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You are going to need a lot of help to get there.. 18z GFS tries to do it Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z GFS tries to do it Friday. Yes it does........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Deformation banding is going to destroy central and northern New England. Stripe of 12+" from W-C MA to S VT and SW NH to E-C NH to W ME to the ME coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Deformation banding is going to destroy central and northern New England. Stripe of 12+" from W-C MA to S VT and SW NH to E-C NH to W ME to the ME coastal plain Even with some of the western solutions there is room for some subtle track shifts back to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01” L.E. Tuesday 3/29/2011 6:00 P.M. update: I measured 0.3” of snow from today’s upslope activity. I guess it could have been a bit more before settling, but it came in at 30 to 1 snow to water and that’s pretty fluffy. It snowed steadily for quite a while in Burlington today, and there were a lot of stressed looks about the continuation of winter. Even some of the skiers in the department are hankering for spring. That’s sacrilegious if you ask me; spring will be here by May like it always is, and the continued snow just ensures that the skiing will be great now and in the spring when it gets here. It’s win-win. It seems that even the skiers that are down on the continued winter just want to be able to do some warm weather activities when they’re off the slopes. I should also note that many people were less than amused when they learned that there was the potential for some snow at the end of the week. I never saw today’s snow accumulate in the Burlington area, because although it was often moderate in intensity, the flakes were presumably too fluffy to overpower the air/ground temperatures. Some details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 35.4 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 21.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 All I know is the mere mention of snow in my forecast last night brought out the long faces... Now that we have two opportunities on the board, the faces might reach the ground. On the flight to KLEB, I saw that there was better coverage outside of H-Town... So you're the one who uses that airport! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So you're the one who uses that airport! HAHAHAHAHA. Cape Air runs a great service to KHPN just outside NYC (and actually closer to my home than all the NYC airports save KLGA, which it's about equal to) from KLEB. There's actually an increasing number of NYC based students using the service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 358 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 NYZ028>031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-302100- /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0008.110401T0600Z-110402T0600Z/ EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN- WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE- WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE- CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND- WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLATTSBURGH...STAR LAKE... SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID... PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS... NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE... ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD... RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION... ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON... EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON 358 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 7 TO 14 INCHES ABOVE 1000 FEET. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND BECOME TO MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES DURING FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES DUE TO WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ON FRIDAY. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 BTV's discussion... looks like the lower elevations definitely may struggle on Friday during the day, but I bet this falls as all snow at all elevations if we get a track like the GFS or EURO. MAIN STORY THEN OCCURS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON POTENTIAL LATE SEASON WINTER STORM ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGING ON THE IDEA THAT DEEP AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL CAPTURE ROBUST ENERGY EMERGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD...AND SPAWN A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A FAVORABLE SFC LOW TRACK OFF HATTERAS NNE TOWARD CAPE COD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WOULD PLACE OUR AREA UNDER OPTIMAL FRONTOGENETICAL/DEFORMATIONAL FORCING LEADING TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EVENT. AS ALWAYS...THE DEVIL LIES IN THE DETAILS...BUT I`VE SEEN ENOUGH THIS MORNING SUCH THAT WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE WARRANTED FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CRITICAL IN OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 1) NEAR SFC THERMAL PROFILES AND 2) TIME OF DAY...TYPICAL DURING LATE SEASON EVENTS SUCH AS THIS. NONETHELESS...ENOUGH DYNAMICAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL CAA ON GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW TO SEE A POTENTIAL MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW EVENT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS STAND TO SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS...WITH MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS WHERE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING WARMEST HOURS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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